ok so i've been thinking about this way too much, but low-key think both companies are kinda cooked long-term. not the tech (that's fire), but like… how do they actually *make money* without burning VC cash forever?
tbh the revenue numbers look crazy, but most of that is just enterprises… trying stuff out? like, i saw somewhere that 95% of AI pilots never even hit production. that's not a stable revenue base, that's a bunch of "let's see if this works" experiments.
and here's the thing nobody talks about: selling more tokens = burning more cash. the real winners are aws/google who own the GPUs. it's like… you're the one digging for gold, but the shovel store is raking it in.
if i were running one of these? i'd slow down the hype train, focus on cash flow, and try to build something enterprises will actually pay for (like palantir did). but yeah, their valuations are already insane so… good luck with that 🍳
…it's like… you're the one digging for gold, but the shovel store is raking it in.
if i were running one of these? i'd slow down the hype train…
(btw idk if this is relevant but i feel like amazon back in the day was just… weirdly paranoid about cash? could be totally wrong but feels like the opposite vibe here lol)
anyway that's my ramble. change my mind 👇
(sources if you care: that mit report on ai pilot failures was wild)
**hot take: anthropic & openai might not make it 🤷♀️**
byu/Pale-Entertainer-386 ininvesting
Posted by Pale-Entertainer-386
3 Comments
This is the coldest take there is brother
Just like Uber
There could very well be an AI bubble, and when it pops. it will be ugly.
I see at least 3 buyers of AI:
* Tech companies, especially any company that offers software as part of its goods or services
* Governments, for defense, security, enforcement, and other critical activities
* Retail consumers, and the costs to us will be spread similarly like smartphone purchases or streaming subscriptions
What would the revenues of AI be? $10 trillion per year? (I think it could be between $2-20 trillion, so picking a midpoint). So the market cap of all providers could be $40 trillion, based on 4x sales.
Nvidia is currently $5 trillion, so there is room for 7 other Nvidias. We shall see if they include Anthropic and/or OpenAI. And several in the race may run out of money before they establish market share, or get disrupted by a competitor.