Currently only 3 companies make HBM4, the biggest bottleneck of the entire AI build. Samsung, SK, and MU. Samsungs union walked away from talks last night, strike window is set for5/21 to 6/7, 18 days of the worlds biggest memory fab going dark. Once shutdown, tooling recalibration on these lines take WEEKS not days.
SK already sold out their DRAM, NAND, and HBM thru end of 2026 to NVDA. Locked in at contract prices. They get the headline of being #1 HBM but they have nothing left to put on the truck during a spot price spike. MU is in the same boat on HBM specifically, also sold out thru 2026, but the real prize is different. When Samsung goes dark for 18 days during a record memory upcycle, spot DRAM and NAND prices melt up, and MU’s 2027 contract negotiations happen with Samsung as the absent third bidder at the table. MU also has more standard DRAM and NAND flex than SK does right now.
Add to it MU has US based fabs, zero Korea labor exposure, and no Korean governance discount baked into the multiple. They have been shipping HBM3E to NVDA in volume since 2024 so the qualification work is long done. If your a hyperscaler scrambling for memory during the strike, you call the guys in Boise who can ship, not the guys in Pyeongtaek who cant.
Last thing, MU trades on US exchanges through any US discount broker, where as US retail still only has indirect SK exposure thru ETFs. That asymmetric access flows straight into MU’s multiple when the trade goes viral on here.
My thesis, MU is going to $1300. HBM is running approx 80% margins and mix keeps climbing every quarter. As HBM eats more of the revenue stack your blended earnings power gets to $80+ EPS run rate easy. $1300 is barely 16x at that point, and def reachable this year if the market feels AI super cycle holds thru 2027. Better hop on the ride while it is still under 800.
1200 shares at $464 and 100 shares at $381
MU is the cleanest play on the imminent Samsung strike
byu/willbabu inwallstreetbets
Posted by willbabu
23 Comments
wait why would samsung strike help mu anyway
MU is fully booked. Samsung was skyrocketing because of that. They are trying to fill the gap with any company that has availability. The fact that Samsung is on strike shouldn’t affect MU.
lmao watching samsung workers maybe shut down the memory supply for AI when everyone’s going crazy for chips is peak 2024
hope you’re right about that price target because my portfolio definitely needs some of that action
I got 235 shares of MU, 2075 DRAM, and 55 SNDK. I just want the insane stream of green days +6-10%
Still sitting on +20% gains each but yesterday drop isn’t fun
So the stock going down wasn’t about the strike?
MU HBM4 is manufactured in Singapore and Japan. They have resource shortages. US fab isn’t ready. Fully booked assumes deliverables. Gulf states are declaring force majeure. I predict semi stocks will warn by mid June. Until then, insiders selling.
“Samsung workers have been angered by what they call a massive gap in bonus pay with rival SK Hynix, which beat Samsung in delivering high-bandwidth memory for artificial intelligence chip units to Nvidia following the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. SK Hynix last year abolished its pay cap, resulting in bonuses more than THREE times higher than those offered to Samsung workers, sparking a surge in Samsung union membership.”
Samsung workers are rightly pissed. Might take a long time to make them happy.
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/samsung-elec-labour-union-fail-reach-pay-deal-strike-looms-2026-05-12/
Government will probably intervene if they go on strike..30 days injunction or emergency stay until they get a deal done.
Honestly
This DD sounds retarded but I like it 🤷♂️
Priced in
Bro did I just read logic here on WSB and thanks for the tips 🤝
First imma point out to u from now u can buy korean stocks using ibkr they did this like two weeks ago. Mu and sk like u said has blasted up tremendously while Samsung lagged behind both of them part of this reason is because when u buy Samsung ur not just buying their memory ur buying all of Samsung phones tv screens etc and also the union in korea is dragging their stock price. Only one that’s really under valued is Samsung I would like to point out and they have the biggest capacity to build ram more than anyone.
well calls it is
Really good logic with sound advice. I’m finally feeling smarter
MU still has runway until 2030.
Been rolling calls in MU for months. And I expect to be doing this for years. Ridiculous wealth generator. If you just open up your mind to the future possibilities and how AI is basically like discovering electricity, you’ll know that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Buildouts take a long time. And there will be laggard companies at the end of it that will be like oh shit we have to do this too. It’ll just keep going.
There will be bumps tho. Like when AI processing becomes much more efficient and won’t require nearly as much memory. You can damn well bet that will happen.
P R I C E D
I N
is this bad sign for DRAM? or wont impact much due to DRAM having both MU and Samsung with just little more of Samsung composition
I drove by the fab today and it’s looking like it’s going good!!
I don’t know what any of that means. So dammit…. I’m in!
guess im buying DRAM calls
Those engineers at micron with RSUs are laughing to the bank right now
The point about SK Hynix being sold out is the key here. People forget that while SK has the ‘prestige’ of being the #1 HBM partner, being sold out means they have zero operational leverage when spot prices spike.
If Samsung actually goes dark for nearly three weeks, the ripple effect on the DRAM spot market is going to be violent. Micron is the only one with the geographic diversification and the uncommitted capacity to actually capitalize on that immediate price melt-up. Also, with the 2027 contract negotiations coming up, Micron basically just gained all the leverage in the room. 80% margins on HBM is a ‘once in a decade’ tailwind. Definitely watching the $800 level for a breakout.