Opinions on Vistra? The energy company

This is what they are:

Largest independent power producer in the US. 44 GW fleet across gas (61%), coal being retired (20% → 0% by 2027), nuclear (15%), solar/battery (4%). Also runs TXU Energy retail brand serving 4.3M customers across 20 states. 100% US, no international operations.

My first concern comes here. They are super focused on gas and with their next acquisition "Cogentrix" they will have even more gas. No diversification or very little. Plus no international expansion.

And here are my bull arguments:

Texas electricity demand growing 10-15% annually, highest of any US region. Vistra dominates ERCOT. Coal exits by 2027 replaced by Cogentrix gas. Meta 2,600 MW and AWS 1,200 MW locked in 20-year nuclear PPAs starting December 2026 and late 2027. Cogentrix 5,500 MW gas acquisition closing H2 2026 adds 14% fleet capacity overnight. Buybacks reduced share count 30% at average $37 cost vs $147 today. Nancy Pelosi holds 5,000 shares. Norway sovereign wealth fund just bought $930M position. Forward P/E 16.5x for a company growing EPS 65% in 2026 which js genuinelv cheap.

And the analyst price targets have an average upside of 66%.

My main concern is the energy mix and the final ruling expected Q3 2026. If FERC rules hostile on behind-the-meter data center deals, analyst targets compress toward $130s which imo could be a pure utility multiple.

Then there is 76% earnings miss in Q4 2025 and that the net income collapsed 66% in 2025.

Why every stock I look at has problems ahhh