10yr, Iran, and oil suddenly matter to global markets tonight? Markets haven’t cared for a month, why do they suddenly care?

Treasury yields, oil, and inflation have been climbing for 3-4 weeks. And we’ve all known the US and Iran have been no where near signing a peace treaty and opening Hormuz since mid-late April.

Yet none of this mattered to global markets for an entire month. The rising 10yr crushed the market last year, yet has had no impact on markets this year. Why do stocks suddenly care now, a night where nothing meaningful has actually happened?

The timing of market reactions has always been incredibly suspect. The institutions driving the direction of the market are obviously sophisticated enough to be aware of all these negative factors. Yet they conveniently chose to ignore them till this moment, letting markets pump non stop for well over a month in the face of blatantly horrific macro trends. We’re facing the greatest energy crisis in history that will obviously weigh heavily on gpd, yet markets pumped away. Suddenly we get a global sentiment shift with no real trigger or change in course of events.

The suspicious timing of trend reversals is what has always made the stock market difficult to trust. If global markets take a substantial fall from here because of negative factors that were well known far in advance, it just adds to mounting evidence that stocks are openly manipulated and should shake any reasonable individual’s faith in the markets.