The illusion of control and side-effects

I was thinking today that we spend a lot of time and energy looking for keys under the lamp post. Why? Because the light is there.

Similarly we spend a lot of time calculating, modeling, optimizing. Why? Because its something we think we can control.

But control beyond a certain basic level is an illusion. There are no guarantees about anything. Any level of withdrawal can turn out to not be safe. Divorce, lawsuits, health events, fraud, hacks, and the markets simply behaving like they haven't in the past. Finally, the biggest risk of all, one that is certain, degrading health and death. The risk of not enjoying the fruits of your labor at all.

It is easy to fall into the trap of feeling good about the highness of NW number or the lowness of the safe withdrawal rate %, but it is a trap. These are not indicators of success.

Real success is the ability to control your time and live life on the terms you seek. These aren't easily calculable, or comparable, so a lot of us spend a lot less time thinking about it. But its the truth.