Someone smart convince me not to buy a STRC (strategy preferred stock) put

For those not familiar MSTR (the BTC investment company) has 11.5% yielding deep junk rated preferred stock.

Per the consensus BTC has a 50-50 chance of dropping below 55k sometime within the next year. If that happens MSTR will be sitting on a 26% unrealized loss and debt. And will make no sense to buy or hold the common stock because actual BTC will have a much lower cost basis.

They have money allocated for the preferred dividends but I have to imagine any institution holding the preferred stock will sell or buy puts way before BTC gets anywhere near 55k.

And the par value for the preferred STRC has already been around 93 dollars twice in the last 6 months.

So I like the relatively cheap 2 month ish 95 dollar put. It will probably be out of the money which is why I'm not buying any amount that's material to me. But the tail risk of potential 55k BTC price within 2 months is approx 14 percent. And I would expect a very high ROI on a 50 dollar option with a black swan crash value of up to 9,500$.

Obviously this is a lottery ticket type move. But I also have money I do care about tied to tech and I feel like this option is a super cheap downside protection for a tech crash that will likely drag BTC down with it.

Feel free to tell me what I'm getting wrong. I buy and hold index ETFs with my actual investments and this would just be for fun. But if its absurd then I can easily be talked out of it.