War Gaming Oil Prices: Geopolitics, Not Markets, Setting Prices
Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz removed millions of barrels of oil from global markets and exposed a hard truth: energy has become a geopolitical weapon.
Energy economist Ed Hirs joins me to explain why oil prices didn’t reach the levels many analysts expected, how strategic petroleum reserve releases helped stabilize markets, and why countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, and Ukraine now have unprecedented leverage over global energy prices.
We also discuss:
• Why oil prices could remain volatile despite the ceasefire
• How China can influence global oil markets
• Saudi Arabia’s evolving relationship with the United States
• Why U.S. producers aren’t rushing to drill more oil
• The political risks facing Washington ahead of the midterm elections
• What investors are getting wrong about the oil market
This conversation explores the intersection of energy, geopolitics, and economics at a moment when all three are becoming increasingly difficult to separate.
#OilMarkets #Iran #StraitOfHormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #OilPrices #SaudiArabia #China #Russia #EnergyTransition #EnergyNews #MarkhamHislop
25 Comments
Oil price is well within the range they want to keep it between 60 to 90 dollars.
The energy crisis is over.
Iran's disruption??
Price of oil is less important than most think. The supply disruption has accelerated Asia's transition away from fossil fuels and that won't change regardless of the price.
One can be pretty certain that as Midterm Time approaches, that some nations will "put the screws to USA" in ways that will push public sentiment against Trump higher. Everyone Everywhere wants him out, regardless of what is said / shown publicly. The Saudi's, Qatari's and everyone else certainly want him gone ! They will likely use Oil Supply to harm MAGA at the right time.
Gramps gives a long list of 1st&foremosts and you keep calling like he pays you. Piss yellow mumbling
Makes sense. With all the oil that’s been “lost” and the need to refill SPRs and commercial inventories oil can’t go that low. A lot of people think$80 oil is where it will settle but is that marginal for new shale wells? Can the US admin jawbone it down? They’ve already said refilling will start at the end of 2026. After the mid-terms. Then the consumer better hang on, especially if they heat with oil.
When China wants to replace what it pulled from its reserves, it won't do it in a way that'll raise prices by trying to do so as fast as possible. There is no point in paying more than you have to, and they really get that. They will refill at a "calm" pace over a longer period and likely will add more to their strategic reserve.
The US on teh otherhand will rush to refill their depleting reserves which will raise prices and "throttled control" by those that want Trump/MAGA Out which will make it worse on Magastan. Repairs will be worse than expected & slower than desired in all the Oil/Gas infrastructure that was damaged and contracted priorities will get first dibs and USA is coming after the fact, so into a queue they go.
This WILL be funny to watch play out… Consequences always come in a variety of ways.
Thank you for mentioning the fact that China cut back on their normal purchase of oil as it was one of the main reasons why oil prices did not spike.
World economic situation is still not out of danger, yes, tankers are making it threw the Strait but in relative terms some of these vessels will take 30 plus days to reach their destination and in the meantime the reserves keep dwindling.
Oil is going to 40 but go ahead and listen to these guys.
Just wait until oil shortages impact social behavior through the supply chain and prices for all products increase. People are already struggling with layoffs, debt, inflation, medical care, taxes, and foreclosures. Our buy-in to a social contract promotes lawful and civil behavior. Worth considering are the struggling masses who are not economically prepared and being left behind. A book called Dealing with Burglary and Home Invasion Robbery may help in lowering your odds of becoming a victim of desperate people behaving badly.
Did the Saudis turn to ruzzia? I'm pretty sure it was Ukraine.
He forgot to mention Saudi ended the petrodollar agreement with America last year which required all of Saudi crude buyers use dollars in exchange of protection. Notice China did nothing for Saudi nor Russia when the missles started flyiing. They still got some protection and premium defensive weapons from the US. Now they have to pay tribute to Iran so are they really upset with the US, that was coming either way.
Getting over the boot tops yet again Markham ? For a man who knows nothing of significance you have no inhibitions about displaying the extent of your ignorance….
Thank you both!
The Chinese saved the oil price
U.S. Treasury issued a 60-day license that authorizes the production, delivery and sale of oil from Iran.
This happens to be the 70th anniversary of the Suez Crisis. Look it up and be shocked on how far the US has fallen from grace. With the Suez Crisis, when the US said, "bag it", The Brits, French AND Isreal just pack up and withdraw. None of this we will just keep invading/bombing stuff.
I love this common panic-speak. I think it's garbage but I profit from it.
5:15. Does he even believe what he is saying? It's the gap and then the embarrassed reveal. Gotta Love it. I keep playing 5:02 to 5:15. LOL LOL LOL
Spot on analysis!
The price isn't going up in the futures market and it should be, so it's not the inexperienced investor pushing the price up, they want the price to go up. So the question not answered is why has oil been so bullish. SPR releases haven't stopped inventories from dropping, China not buying oil has only slowed the inventory drain. Supply has shrunk but demand hasn't fallen off the cliff and basic supply and demand economics would indicate that the price should be higher, but it is not. I'm not looking at oil to be delivered next year or electric cars and solar replacing fossil fuels in the short term, the price today is somehow being driven down beyond normal let the market decide. There has to be some intervention not visible to the average person pushing the price down in the market. If I was an oil producer, knowing that storage was hitting lows would be refilling my tanks holding oil back from the market just to make deliverable supply shrink and prices and thus profits rise. Iran being able to sell some oil for 60 days won't fix the supply issue, as first they need to find tankers willing to take the risk, those tankers need to deliver the product and that takes weeks and I would suspect all of it would go to just a few countries. So why isn't the price of oil over $100 a barrel today, just doesn't add up.
Iran could cause Regime Change… in the US !
I do have a question. For someone with less than $100,000 to invest, How would you recommend we enter the market. I'm looking to study some traders and copy their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach??
Who is this idiot. Israel is not attacking Lebanon. They are defending themselves against attack from rocket terror attacks.
This guy is clueless. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States “rolled the dice” with Iran. They thought they would be spared if the US was not allowed to launch attacks from their countries and use their airspace. The US military had to withdraw from those countries until they were later given permission to return.