If the war in iran keeps on going on, the price of oil will never go down and prices of everything will skyrocket. Can this drag the stock market into a correction or possibly a crash?
We already see how fragile the economy is with very low jobs numbers and the s&p 500 being carried by the ai hype so im concerned this can be the last tipping point that breaks everything. Im not saying we shouldn’t invest but im saying its a big concern not many are speaking of because everytime theres good news about the war it collapses and i dont see how this ends. Even if it does end oil prices will never go back to where they were before
What will happen to the stock market if the iran war drags on for years?
byu/General_Style_4384 ininvesting
Posted by General_Style_4384
20 Comments
Battery makers stocks will go up. Interest rates will have pressure to stay elevated. This probably won’t be nice for office real estate. It will add pressure to data centers as fossil to electric conversion competes with electric use already.
The gulf countries continue to lose market share and dig deeper into debt as new oil pockets come online.
Still pretty hard to believe we’re starting another war over middle east quagmire horseshit, again for no appreciable reason or goal that any sane person can explain
up and to the right.
It will reach new ATH nominally.
In real terms? Probably stagflation.
perfect time to buy something in Dubai
I’m pretty conservative with my money.
I have two big purchases I’d like to make within the next 5 years. Normally I would save and buy with cash or at least 75% down
, but I feel that inflation will make it so that a purchase today with half down and at 6-8% for the rest will be the same or even less expensive than waiting for 5 years.
Basically I feel that our money is going to be less and less valuable.
The market usually doesn’t crash just because a war drags on. The chain is more like: war → sustained oil shock → inflation expectations → higher rates for longer → earnings/margins get hit.
If oil spikes but supply routes stay open, markets can probably grind through it. If energy stays high for months and the Fed has to stay tighter, then yeah, a correction becomes much more realistic.
it will go up.
No one will care just like no one cares now
It will be good for electric car manufacturers and solar energy
Watch the Strategic Petroleum Reserve level in about a month and what oil does. The world is drawing down on reserves to keep the price of oil lower and those reserves will eventually end, except maybe for China. The pressure to get out of the Middle East will be intense at $8 gasoline.
Ramp electric car production, this will help rare earth mining. The oceans are in trouble because of CO2 and the chance of ecosystem collapse is getting higher. Look for fusion to come online soon. Higher gas prices also effectively raise fuel efficiency standards. More wind and solar, more public transportation. It could all work out for the best. It will undo a lot of the stupidity from the current administration around the environment. Always look on the bright side.
The market has already mostly factored in the war, soon it will no longer have any effect on the market. It’s like working in a morgue, first few weeks might be hard, then you get used to seeing bodies. As for the price of oil, as the blockade in Hormuz drags on, people and companies will replace fuel with renewables, while the Gulf states will build up the infrastructure to bypass the strait. At least that’s how I see it.
I mean, if it drags on for years and Hormuz stays closed, strap in for a very rough few years. Unless you’re wealthy, the stock market will be the least of your concerns.
Things haven’t melted down for two reasons: China reduced its consumption and global oil reserves were tapped. But neither can last forever, and the latter is already within weeks of running dry.
Hormuz account for somewhere around 20% of global oil. Economies around the world will just start folding without the fuel needed to keep them at 100%.
It takes less than you think. The Great Recession was only a 4-5% drop in GDP, and the Great Depression was around 15%. Now, a 20% lack of oil isn’t going to correlate 1:1 with GDP, but could it get to 5%? That’s not crazy to think about.
It’ll crash, we’ll all be fuc**d. Our nation just can’t handle being at war for more than a month or 2.
This war is just another ponzi scheme to enrich the ultra wealthy.
It depends on who is president..
Market only goes up
Yes
It will accelerate electrification and reduction in dependence on oil. Of course, oil will always be needed but it can be reduced en masse. We’ll see a resurgence of stocks like ENPH. If electricity gets expensive enough you’ll see more residential houses begin purchasing solar and more people reducing their reliance on fuel. You’ll see more push for electrification of logistics fleets via EV technology. This is the opposite of what saudis want by the way. They know the writing is on the wall. 🥭 has somehow pushed the economy even closer to a green energy boom. 😂