WHILE CRUDE OIL PRICES ARE STATE-CONTROLLED, DIESEL IS SCREAMING REALITY
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This week, despite Trump floating – then quickly walking back- a proposed 20% protection fee for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated, and commercial traffic through the strait effectively collapsed; the WTI oil price stayed capped just below the critical $82 resistance.
In today’s Episode 86, I explain why I believe short positioning and state-linked price management are suppressing volatility in order to manage the orderly rise in crude oil prices, managing the risk of a disorderly repricing. I also scrutinize the latest EIA “inventory build” showing how it was driven by non-critical categories and heavy statistical adjustments. Finally, I point to diesel’s divergence and surging crack spreads as the clearest real-world signal of tightening shortages in both crude oil and refined products.
I will conclude today’s episode with an update on Korean stocks and a warning on the potential risk of implosion of that whole market.
00:00 Introduction
03:53 How the government, short sellers, and brokers managed to control crude oil prices during OpEx week
08:04 The Strait of Hormuz is fully shut again
09:12 How the EIA is inflating crude oil inventory data while warning about tank bottoms
13:21 The military escalation and change of tactics traders are ignoring
15:11 How the government is managing the crude oil market like a pressure cooker
17:37 Oil price volatility is the key indicator to monitor
19:25 Why the price of Diesel and Gasoline cannot be easily manipulated and the loud warning they are sending
21:50 The risk of implosion of the Korean Stock market
DISCLAIMER:
THE CONTENT SHARED HERE IS INTENDED SOLELY FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, OR PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE PRESENTER AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE OPINIONS OF ANY CERTIFIED FINANCIAL ADVISOR. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR AND DO ADDITIONAL RESEARCH AND DUE DILIGENCE ON YOUR OWN BEFORE INVESTING AND MAKING IMPORTANT INVESTMENT DECISIONS.
12 Comments
This channel has turned from a good and silver doomsday channel to a oil doomsday channel 😂
Sir I think till oct 2026
Crude will kiss ,170
What u say
Eventually it might Christmas 🎄 for people getting oil stock dividends
only contrary thing is think on monday (in some hours) its gona gap up and things will go "out of control" fast i think the problem with controlling prices is that it takes more and more money the longer its done and i think it started from the first harmus spike to 120 and theyve been trying to push price down from months and its now breaking bcs they also pushed it too low at the same time things got rly worst on all metrics so when it breaks as its starting to happen it snaps to reality fast
Well said, let's see what happens next week.
With the crack spreads at all time high and refineries are not making that huge profit between crude prices and distillates, then where is that profit going to since it is not showing in the CRAK ETFS?
They got cocky with their success in manipulating gold and silver prices, and are doing it to oil. But oil is consumed as fast as if is produced, and they will likely just create a short squeeze that will deliver an epic price spike before it crashes again.
Political suicide for Trump.
Im waiting on the Glut ?
Followed on X came here out of curiosity, stayed for the sarcastic applause.
Trump likes to invest. He follows you for advice 🙂
funniest is when price was 110 per barel and then fall to 60 per barrel price only went 30cent per 1tr less LOL
we get it dude you wanna make money off of oil calls. Stop spamming content the wars gonna make sure oil goes up in a few weeks.