Healthcare is the sector I ignored the longest, and I suspect a lot of people here do the same. It feels like you need an MD to have an opinion. You don't. You mostly need to understand who pays whom.

    Where my reading time is going this quarter:

    The GLP-1 effect -> Everyone's focused on the drugmakers themselves (Novo, Lilly). The more interesting question to me is the second order. If a large chunk of the population is on appetite-suppressing drugs for years, what happens to demand for dialysis, sleep-apnea devices, even snack and restaurant volume? Some of those businesses are priced like nothing upstream changes. Maybe nothing does. But the gap is worth watching.

    Patent cliffs -> Several large-cap pharma names have major products losing exclusivity over the next couple years. When protection lapses, generics arrive and revenue can drop fast. What I watch isn't the cliff – it's whether the pipeline (or the acquisitions they're making to fill it) actually replaces the revenue or just papers over it.

    Customer side -> Managed care has been eating higher-than-expected medical costs, and Medicare drug price negotiation is starting to bite. I'm watching medical loss ratios and how cautious guidance gets.

    None of this is a buy list. It's just where I'm digging.

    Anyone else looking at the GLP-1 knock-on effects? Curious which supposed "loser" is actually overpriced.

    https://i.redd.it/nss6nn22kulh1.png

    Posted by RahulGandhi007

    1 Comment

    1. Special-Key-2571 on

      that pbm magnifying glass is the most honest thing i’ve seen in a healthcare graphic in years

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