We haven't heard from ASTS leadership since August 10. At that time they said they believed there would be 1 launch every 1 to 2 months. They said they should be able to get critical 45 satellites into orbit by end of Q1 2027, pushing the timeline back from end of 2026 by 3 months. That was coming off the heals of an August 5 launch. Here we are 2 and a half months later and there's been nothing but crickets.
In that period of time, SpaceX has launched 26 next gen satellites in one launch. It averaged 265 starlink satellites to orbit per month for the first 6 months on 2026.
On September 14 there was a class action lawsuit filed against ASTS alleging management misled investors.
In order for ASTS to keep their Q1 target they would reasonably need 4 more launches by the end of the year. Given that there has been no launches since August 5, no announcements or communication with investors since August 10, we can probably assume that isnt going to happen.
Where I think we're at: Its reasonable to believe that the technology works, the MNO relationships are not falling apart, that the revenue case is developing. But we can't trust management's guidelines or timeframes. The stock has lost 39% of its value since the August 10 earnings call, but is still trading at 140x sales revenue. To me it says we believe long term this will work out, but not at all in the time that management says.
Am I giving management too much credit, is ASTS fully cooked or do you think the stock is oversold? I'm down approx $30k on this, but other than timelines and competitor position, nothing has really changed.
Bullish on ASTS. Bearish on Management.
byu/schoolofhanda instocks
Posted by schoolofhanda
17 Comments
*On September 14 there was a class action lawsuit filed against ASTS alleging management misled investors.*
Stopped reading right there.
I know that as soon as I sell the price is going to go back up to my entry point.
Should be bearish on both. This stock has a long way to go down. Only thing supporting it are the bot farms on reddit that hype this stock suppress anything that is critical about the company
Total shares and avg ?
They’re going to have to pump it to dilute it again sometime soon. You’ll hear from them then.
I have lost complete faith in their timelines and they’re rapidly squandering first-mover advantage as a result… AND it’s hard to imagine it going totally belly up, both because production is moving along (too slowly, but it’s moving), and because the MNOs they will work with now have to fend off future competition from SpaceX, and ASTS is by far their best bet for that.
AST Silent Mobile
Lol no disrespect, ASTS has never been nearly worth what it trades for. The space sector (outside of this bull market) was running on hype and fumes there the last few months and I was telling people to sell these things and take your profits and then buy back in later at these all-time highs because when they decided to fall, it would be very hard. Guess what happened? Now, RKLB is the one space stock that I think is a “DCA whenever you can” type thing because that’s the best of the bunch. ASTS is the best potential. SPACEX – the reality is that Elon is too big to fail and so for the right price that’s a great investment as well. And I don’t like nor trust Elon but that’s the truth.
The rest of these? PL, LUNR, BKSY and especially ASTS. Have never been worth the runs that they’ve gone on and they were always going to come back down to earth. I would still be cautious of ASTS even down here because I think it has room to continue to fall
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But I haven’t been so far and that’s because when you look at these things… They’ve done nothing. Like they have done nothing. Are they going places? Sure. The argument’s not whether or not you should believe in them or if they will be good. I happen to think they will be great investments. But anybody thinking ASTS was a “omg buy it! It’s only up from here” at $70, $100, $120 were absolutely crazy. Diamond handing these stocks at those prices (especially if you bought them fairly low) just because you view it as a “forever investment” is ridiculous. It might be a long-ass time before you see them even close to those prices again. Living in your little bubble of “this is my baby so I’ll ride or die with it” is a terrible mindset to have.
Management IS the company.
Ngl just sold mine for tax loss harvesting and may plan on purchasing again after that window ends. This and oklo one of the worst decisions ive done and realized im just terrible at individual picks. Lesson learnt I gues
Agreed. Terrible managment, even worse communication.
And i’ve been in this stock since 17 usd, made 40k on it. But holy shit they are fumbling bad
bought for ~8 (20k) and sold around 100. best stock I ever traded. I sold after it was clear that management is bad. If you go to the sub, you can see it turns to a cult.
Yawn. This is a millionaire maker.
For a communications company they sure don’t know how to fucking communicate. Worst stock I have ever had the displeasure of owning
The bull case for ASTS is earning several dollars per subscriber and having a near-monopoly on the D2D market.
The likely scenario is that they will end up in 3rd place (behind SpaceX and Amazon) and earn 10-20 cents per premium western subscriber.
Worst case scenario, is they run out of money before they get to real service as they must continue to make and launch satellites (248 for full service, they have 7 BB2 so far). They rely on their two competitors to launch, one is grounded and the other one is moving to Starship. Not worth the risk at these valuations.
Bottom is in
back to August 2024 levels