Crypto Is Back At The Exact 2021 Top! But This Isn’t A Top, It’s The Start Of The Bull Market

Crypto Is Back At The Exact 2021 Top! But This Isn’t A Top, It’s The Start Of The Bull Market

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Crypto is back at the exact 2021 top, but my risk model says this time it’s the opposite. In this video I break down why the total crypto market cap sitting near $2.8 trillion, right at the November 2021 high, looks nothing like a cycle top when you lay it against the business cycle and our CCVI risk models. Then I translate that macro picture into the short term for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Sui (SUI), Cardano (ADA), Midnight (NIGHT) and Dog (DOG).

In November 2021 the business cycle expansion had just ended and the total crypto market cap risk score was around 63. Today it’s a 16, and since 2013 price has been higher one year later every single time the model sat at that level. Ethereum is trading at the same $2,500 it was in April 2021, when its risk score was 91, and today that same price carries a risk score of 30. I also cover the inverse head and shoulders structure showing up on Bitcoin, Ethereum and total market cap, the short-term downside risk for ETH, why the 20 and 50 week moving averages matter for Sui and Dog, Cardano’s 200 week moving average, and the asymmetric upside for lower cap altcoins as we move out of quantitative tightening and into business cycle expansion.

Back at the 2021 top 0:00
Bitcoin setup 1:28
2021 vs now: business cycle 2:20
The risk model 3:37
Risk then vs now 4:22
ETH at $2,500, flipped 4:54
ETH short-term downside 7:22
ETH breakout scenario 8:24
Altcoin narratives 9:48
Sui weekly 10:33
Cardano 13:30
Midnight 15:27
Dog 17:27
Recap 19:08

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This channel focuses on macro crypto analysis, liquidity cycles, and market behavior to help long-term investors understand where we are in the broader financial cycle. I cover Bitcoin, crypto, and altcoins like ethereum, solana, cardano, sui, and more.

This content is for patient capital, not short-term speculation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above video references an opinion and is for news/information and entertainment purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice, financial advice, or any solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer that you buy or sell any cryptocurrency or securities. Trading in cryptocurrencies and securities is a high risk activity involving risk of loss so please seek a duly licensed professional for investment or financial advice. The information provided on this video should not be used to make any investment or financial decisions without consulting your financial or investment advisor. This video contains my opinion only and is not intended to cause harm or defame anyone or any entity.