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    The Oil Price Is Lying to You



    The Oil Price Is Lying to You

    Diesel went over 200p a litre in Britain this month — the first time ever. That’s 56p more than a year ago, about £514 on the annual bill for a typical diesel car, and £32,000 for a 44-tonne lorry.

    The obvious explanation is war and the oil price. But there isn’t one oil price any more. Brent futures are trading near $114, roughly $20 above what J.P. Morgan reckons the fundamentals justify. Meanwhile actual cargoes of crude are being sold at the steepest discounts in years — Congo’s Djeno went $34 under Brent, widening $25 in three weeks.

    Paper oil is getting more expensive. Physical oil is getting cheaper. And diesel is near a record regardless.

    That’s because the shortage was never in the oil. It’s in the machinery that turns oil into diesel. Russia has lost roughly a quarter of its refining capacity to drone strikes. More than 20% of Middle Eastern refining has been impaired at points this year. Europe has closed about 30% of its capacity since 2009. What’s left is running above 95% utilisation with nothing in reserve.

    The IEA’s view on when this ends: the second half of 2027. At least another nine months.

    And energy shocks don’t stop at the pump. They take six to eighteen months to work through into core inflation — which puts the real inflationary pressure well into 2028, just as the Chancellor is borrowing at record levels.

    Sources and full data below.

    00:00 — Record diesel
    00:30 — Two oil prices
    03:22— Why this is a refining crisis
    05:24— How high? How long?
    06:20 — The inflation lag
    7:40 — Objections
    9:08 — What it means for the Budget

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    38 Comments

    1. @AlesandarGrauki on

      I’ve come to realize that the hardest part of investing isn’t finding opportunities, it’s knowing how to build a portfolio that can handle the inevitable mistakes along the way. Buying stocks sounds simple enough, but consistently choosing the right ones without a solid strategy is easier said than done. Marie j Freeman about diversification, risk management, and having clear entry and exit plans completely changed my approach. Over time, those lessons helped me grow my portfolio from a 5-figure balance into a solid 6-figure nest egg.

    2. @lesterchua2677 on

      lol. Physical oil is cheaper. This is the first lie.
      84% of oil flowing out of Hormuz compared to pre-war. 2nd lie

      You are trying to explain why paper trade is cheaper than physical by telling lies. Welcome to the world of Gold where futures manipulate prices because you can sell what you don’t own to manipulate the price everyone has to pay.

    4. @redtop1705 on

      The Oil companies with make record profits the same as Supermarkets it’s nothing more than a Scam if they made a Loss then I would be more sympathetic but they don’t it’s nothing more than Greed

    5. @redtop1705 on

      For the five largest international oil companies — BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and TotalEnergies — reported figures show they made more than $75 billion (around £56 billion) in combined adjusted profits during the first six months of 2026.

    13. @Markdmarque on

      They PRETEND TO FIX IT!!!….They have DELIBERATELY CREATED THE PROBLEM!!!…ALL PLANNED!!!…Market Forces don't work because a MONOPOLY CONTROLS SUPPLY

    14. @RogerHyam on

      If UK road fuel had risen with inflation over the last 10 to 15 years then it would be close to where it is now. Is it really expensive at the moment? Was it too cheap last year?

      All through the 2010's diesel hovered around 130p/l. What would £1.30 in 2016 be worth in todays money? The Bank of England has a handy calculator that will tell us. The inflation corrected cost of a litre of diesel would be about £1.85. As I type in October 2026 it has just hit £2.00 which is 7% over what one would expect the pump price to be anyhow. The real issue is that for the whole of 2025 diesel cost around £1.40 to £1.50 per litre which was, inflation corrected, 40p (25%) under priced! Although the peak price is overshooting it is more like a correction. A 7% rise in fuel prices within a month might be manageable for a transport firm but a 30% rise is crippling. This is the real story. The government is supposed to add and remove the fuel levy to flatten out the price but they don't. They kept it off even in the good times so there is nothing to cut in the bad times.

    15. @bobansell6041 on

      I would like a little more evidence from what you say. What is your source that oil is flowing through the Straight of Hormuz at 85% of pre-war levels? Hopefully it's not the word of the USA president.

    16. @cszrwi on

      Trump is an enemy of the US and is working for other enemies. He has been told by Putin (his Don) to disarm the US. This he is doing with alarming speed.

    19. @Igoriann on

      Umm oil price isnt lying. When i fill up, i get charged exactly what it says im being charged. What is questionable is these channels telling us we wont have gas in two weeks but its been 6 months and EVERYONE still drives!

    20. @FontaineDerby on

      Oil companies are generating immense, near-record profits right now, driven by a massive spike in energy prices and refining margins. Geopolitical events—specifically conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on global energy infrastructure—have tightened fuel supplies worldwide. In the first half of the year alone, major oil and gas producers accumulated over $125 billion in total profits.

    21. @FontaineDerby on

      The US Department of Defense is the world's largest institutional consumer of fossil fuels.

      The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) consumes approximately 110 million barrels of petroleum and liquid fuel annually, averaging roughly 270,000 to 300,000 barrels per day.

      Total Volume equals more than 4.1 to 4.6 billion gallons of liquid fuel every year.

      If the DoD were a country, its daily oil consumption would rank around 34th in the world—using more petroleum each day than entire industrialized nations like Sweden, Switzerland, or Greece.

      The military spends roughly $10 billion every year just buying and burning fuel for its ships, aircraft, vehicles, and generators. Because of this massive reliance on oil, a $10 increase in the price of a single barrel of crude oil costs the Pentagon over a billion dollars in extra expenses.

    26. @andrewstafford-jones4291 on

      UK refineries are being killed off by high carbon costs Britain lost two oil refineries last year – Grangemouth closed in April 2025 and Lindsey followed in August, leaving just four operating sites: Fawley, Humber, Pembroke and Stanlow. This matters far beyond the companies and workers involved because it increases Britain’s import dependency and undermines energy security.

      We are currently paying £70 million to £80 million a year in CO2 costs. That will go up to £150 million in the next four or five years, and our competitors are not paying any. That is the cost delta that we are suffering versus our competition, and that is what is causing refineries to shutter in the UK. We have lost two recently. You are therefore effectively driving even more imports to come in, and they can compete against us because they are not paying the CO2 costs,”

    29. @mrlarry271 on

      At the end of all this turmoil in the West the Middle Kingdom i.e. China might come out of it as the center of the world. The late George Carlin once quipped "Stay tuned folks. China is gonna win it all." Might be yet another thing he was early on.

    30. @flakieflake9616 on

      It's taken me over 18 months to learn about the oil market to a point where I felt comfortable investing in it, and you cannot just do what this guy has and decide to produce a video and get it all right. Current spot oil has not gone down it's at $166 Br up from around $150 and there are several reasons not least the fact that the straits of Hormuz are now closed. Trump has authorised the SPR to release below minimum levels knowing it will destroy the salt caves in which it is stored – you don't do that unless there is some dire emergency or shortage.
      He also takes a left Wing Keynesian view that price rises are inflation, when inflation is always – always a monetary phenomenon as measured by M1 & M2 Price rises are not inflation, although inflation can lead to price rises.
      Oil prices will remain high for at least the next 5 years as the infrastructure in the Gulf has been damaged and will take years to repair and bring the oil and gas fields back on line again, then there are all the drawn down reserves which have to be refilled plus countries which had no reserves and suffered badly wanting to now have some. oil demand is going to remain elevated for some time post conflict and that conflict is nowhere near 'Post' as it stands now.

    32. @BRMCaptChaos on

      Ukraine hitting RUS refinery AVT units was a chaotic choice, I'm not sure they've thought through the long term effects of picking that moment. Too late to hide the effect they caused, probably 6 months too late to achieve the effect they wanted. If Gulf comes back online, and Saudi re-arrange the Houthi furniture, I suspect it will resume again pushing BRICS into the euro market.

    33. @saadbadaoui5337 on

      Love these videos. The Bank of England will raise interest rate to fight inflation (caused by Oil or diesel prices) which in turn could impact mortgage payments. Why would people need to suffer twice (mortgage payment + diesel processing shortage due to war) just because Israel and NATO wanted a war with Iran and RUssia resp. ???? Also things are going to get worst because if USA or Israel strike then Iran might hit refineries then who is going to refine Oil to convert it to Diesel? Bibi??

      I love economics but hate all these conflicts

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