Tom welcomes back Richard Duncan to the show. Richard is a macroeconomist and the author of four books on the global economic crisis including his most recent “The Money Revolution”.
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He started writing his new book at the beginning of 2018 and it was nearly complete but then the pandemic started. Global events necessitated a pause in writing the book to see how things would play out. In total Richard took four years to write it.
The book discusses the history of money and credit and the lessons that can be learned from the history of the Federal Reserve. Everyone must understand how the Fed functions because it’s likely the most important corporation in the world. It determines globally what happens to markets and economies. The book discusses the total credit of the United States which includes all debt by all entities. In 1974 that was one trillion by 2008 we were at 50 trillion. Today we’re over 90 trillion dollars and this has fundamentally changed the nature of our economic system.
Our economic system today should be called creditism because the system today no longer utilizes capital savings. We are addicted to credit growth. Whenever credit contracts we enter a recession or depression economically.
The book discusses the causes of inflation and deflation. It reveals that in recent decades changes in the money supply haven’t impacted inflation that much. The key has been globalization which has been highly deflationary. Inflation is not just a monetary phenomenon as it is often affected by surprise supply shocks like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He dives deeply into explaining a possible way out of our current economic quagmire. By leveraging growth via funding improvements in technology, research, and manufacturing.
Talking Points From This Episode
– Overview of his latest book.
– Departing the gold standard and the rise of creditism.
– Why inflation is not always a monetary phenomenon.
– Fixing the future by researching and improving technology.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – Book Overview
9:00 – Credit-ism
10:53 – Solutions
12:00 – Globalization & Deflation
24:00 – Fixing The Future
27:33 – Dollar Scenarios
30:00 – Growth & Innovation
31:20 – Investment Programs
38:00 – Government Action?
41:30 – Incentivizing
45:40 – Energy & Environment
48:40 – Manufacturing & Tech.
51:20 – His Book & Macrowatch
55:55 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/PaperMoneyEcon
Book: https://richardduncaneconomics.com/the-money-revolution/#order-window
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Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008.
His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022).
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. Richard currently publishes Macro Watch, the bi-monthly video newsletter he founded in 2013.
Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC, and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio. He has published articles in The Financial Times, The Far East Economic Review, FinanceAsia, and CFO Asia. He is also a well-known speaker whose audiences have included The World Economic Forum’s East Asia Economic Summit in Singapore, The EuroFinance Conference in Copenhagen, The Chief Financial Officers’ Roundtable in Shanghai, and The World Knowledge Forum in Seoul.
Richard studied literature and economics at Vanderbilt University (1983) and international finance at Babson College (1986); and, between the two, spent a year traveling around the world as a backpacker.
32 Comments
K♤ Q♤ J♤ A♤ 👍🏿👍🏿
NIH and Fauci already took advantage of the Fed's unlimited printing press; the result… COVID.
They have had cures for years, they don't want released they want population control…this guy doesn't take into the reality of the great reset…tptb have not been looking for solutions..nor success .end of story
So the US is $90 trillion I debt. This guy advocates the government is allowed to spend another $10 trillion to reach complete technological dystopia. "That sounds like a lot, right?" God, help us!
This guy is all about maintain America hegemony
The war didn’t cause the inflation my god.
The reason currency printing dint cause inflation was because that currency went into bonds, stocks and no one sells then the real economy does not see that currency, OK let's say the rest of the world does not want dollars then they start sending those dollar back to America and by land, gold, and so on , now the Americans own those dollars not the rest of the world, so America are fucked
Lol give governments 10 trillion and they will make sure that 90% goes to there friends 🤣 this guy is dreaming
This guy also not taking into account the way they change the calculation of the CPI… 🤣
That's incredibly innocent. The wealth would be silohonned off & solving medical problems wouldn't happen. If they did the gravy train to corporations would Galt. They should be trying to put themselves out of business but they, oddly enough, disagree with that philosophy.
Government investing a business. Hmmm. WRONG IDEA!
He mentions the public demand that will be necessary to make these big investments in our future – unfortunately, too many people that care about this sort of thing have become increasingly convinced that it will/must come from the private sector, as if that ever happens. The private sector is great at creating entertainment and widgets, but counting on it to solve the myriad of complex issues that have lead to the present environmental catastrophe is a mistake. There is no incentive for the existing private power structure to make the radical changes necessary to mitigate the damage without large-scale government intervention and financing. It's funny because even when the government encourages the private sector to innovate on this front, many right wing people criticize these efforts as some sort of money making scheme – well isn't that the point? Is that not the incentive the private sector needs? LOL. I wish we weren't all so ideologically skewed to believe that it really must come down to private sector vs. government. The fact is, it is a partnership, a balancing act. Great to see some balanced content on this channel.
Ending the Fed and backing the USDC with Gold
Sounds like a great plan! I can't wait to Google the illustration of
what 500 trillion in US debt looks like. Meanwhile, I'll be loading up
the truck and heading to the hills.
Good luck y'all!
He doesn't understand QE or inflation. QE alone is not inflationary. The Fed buys bonds and gives the bank reserves. The bank then has to create a loan for the money to get in the system. So if the banks are flush with cash where does it go if not for new loans? Have you looked at the reverse repo market lately? That is all "money" that was "created" by the fed that will not do anything to inflation BUT will show up in the M2 money supply. The issuance of debt by commercial banks or the federal government is the only way to cause an actual expansion of the money supply. I know Tom knows this but he has to let the guy talk his book. Anyway it was interesting. Thank you Tom.
Lol have a look at assets. There's your inflation.
Inflation is always snd everywhere, a monastery phenomenon
The effect of money printing is an upwards pressure on price. The price increases hit different sectors at different times at different rates. They can be delayed, exported, masked, etc. But make no mistake, printing money is theft and there is no deflation. Your money is losing purchasing power even if you find something on sale made in a foreign labor camp. This was very painful to listen to.
Well . You listen to all sides… not a fan of his ridiculous rationale…next!!
This guy loses me with his Bolshevik like policies.
The US Does not have 5G, that's surprising to me here in Australia.
There is such an abundance of silliness spouted by this guest, author and 'macro economist.' At 30:36 he speaks of Government "investment" program(s)… Government does not invest .. it merely grows in terms of the size of the bureaucratic entities that manage the so-called investment funds. Insisting that Government spending would result in a surge in productivity and technological breakthroughs is pure absurdity. There is no motivation for the Government (read — bureaucrats) to innovate or produce when they are simply being showered with fiat money. It is not their money — and they are never held accountable for their lack of results as well as their failures. This man is delusional. I do appreciate your having this guy on your show Tom — if only for shining a light on some of these well-spoken academic MMT lunatics.
Keynesian economics: Break window. Eat glass shards. Wait for someone to repair window. Repeat.
As Richard shall soon learn, we didn't get away with trillion dollar deficits.
He is obsessed with US hegemony and refers to the necessity of the US MIC which is one of the reasons the US is broke. Also I think he should have a chat with big pharma and see if curing cancer is in their interests. Remember, congress is just a bunch of paid lobbyists fighting over the gravy train. The people don't even register in this system except as payers of the tax bill.
I would describe these ideas as FAcisim on steroids
Problems with these ideas
1- goverment is actively trying to kill its citizens, not cure cancer.
2- giving the goverment 10 trillion more to waste is just going to cause 10 trillion more of waste. Like trying to kill cancer cells by injecting 10x more cancer cells
3- this is assuming that trust in the US dollar system continues, which is falling apart by the day
4- the us government is run by Theving criminals non of the “corporations” owed by the government will have any benign to the taxpayer. 😂
i listened to 33:00… he doesn't know what peak oil is, or club of rome, or that the great reset demands zero-growth economies. catholic agenda for 'globalization' (ie world imperialism) has ended for mostly this reaaon, it seems. shame to see a good mind flounder in ignorance, missing that key information that.changes everything
The US government would waste most of the money.
Ambien takes this guy when it needs to get some sleep.
I think this guy's 'dreams' rely on efficient U.S. Government & other countries continuing to accept being 'screwed' by taking Dollars for payment which are all the while reducing in value !
I dont think there's enough intellectual capacity and desire left in the West to fasciliate this Guy's ideas. The West hss been dumbing down & resting on its laurels for too long whilst the emerging nations will continue to emerge !?
There will be no next American century.