Tom welcomes a new guest Adam Hamilton. Adam is the founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service.
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Adam notes that whenever something hawkish occurs with the Fed gold tends to get hammered down. There are several ways that gold futures can be manipulated, and one way is with excessive leverage. Speculators in gold futures generally have short time horizons because of their excessive use of leverage.
When markets sell off people rush to cash as a safe haven. This occurs with major events and whenever there is news from the Fed.
Since 1971, there have been a dozen rate hike cycles. Adam defines a cycle as three sequential rate hikes. Gold has risen during eight past cycles but fell during four. The more aggressive the Fed’s actions the worse gold tends to perform.
Gold is very useful for mitigating the effects of inflation. High inflation should boost gold’s performance. It seems unlikely that the Fed will be able to control inflation, especially at these Fed fund rate levels. Inflation has more to do with the crazy money printing over the past couple of years along with the supply issues.
Adam explains how gold has performed during past cycles and why we should see good performance from this cycle. He believes this cycle could be epic for gold. It’s also good that we’re entering this new cycle after gold has been moving sideways for a couple of years.
He discusses the differences between speculating and investing which has mostly to do with respective time horizons.
Adam discusses what he looks for in mining equities and juniors. It’s difficult for gold to respond to supply changes because of the time it takes to bring mines online. Adam looks for growth in production in mining equities. Management and jurisdiction are also key along with miners cash flow and debt levels.
Silver has had worse economics than gold miners, and there aren’t many good silver miners. Silver will respond well to higher gold prices, and potentially silver will have a better upside.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:34 – Gold Futures & Dumps
4:50 – Dollar & Equities
6:26 – Rate Hiking Cycles
10:35 – Factoring Inflation
16:12 – Inflation Causes
18:32 – Gold & Cycles
19:52 – Timing Markets
21:07 – Gold Predictions
24:50 – Investing vs. Speculating
25:16 – Picking Mining Equities
28:08 – Miner Input Costs
39:44 – Silver Miners
31:12 – Exit Strategies
33:14 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
– Fed policies and their historical impact on the price of gold.
– Inflation causes and effects.
– Tips for finding the best junior miners.
– Silver and strategies for when to exit metals markets.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.zealllc.com/
Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm
Rate Hike Article: http://zealllc.com/2022/gdtrvrhc.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on a task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.
By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.
Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life. Adam is a Christian saved by Jesus Christ. He and his wife are greatly blessed with 2 children, and they live in Colorado.
#Gold #Futures #Fed #Cycles #FundRates #Inflation #Stimulus #MiningEquities #Juniors #Silver
33 Comments
Politicians should have their lips superglued to bankers' anuses.
Buy Silver and Platinum .
Nothing effects gold. Fully controlled
I'll do uranium and energy while I wait 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑
Palisades 🥇🥇🥇
Tom this clip dropped minutes after the Reserve Bank of Australia here hiked rates by 50 BPs! Nice work …
Hai anna iam Nagendar Anna na age 42 Marioncotillardd.Uno qualification m.l.t medical lab technicians ,Srpt lo jobs unte cheppagalaru anna.with govt Jobs
GCM mining is a junior that is about to double production
Extremely cheap and pays a monthly dividend
Boom – $3500 – i got you.
An excellent interview. We amateur retail gold-investors should heed how the mechanics of the futures market and rate hikes acutally interact as an impersonal financial force. Also, be aware of another negative mechanism ~ how broad funds and money managers will predictably sell gold to cover their losses on margin calls elsewhere, during a stock market crash.
Very insighful. Thank you for in-video time stamp.
Gold will muddle through the hiking, but it will take off when the Fed reverses course.
Love your attitude and energy Adam…. plus your mic is on point, and no CG background. Rock on!
It's insane that PMs are being hit because real interest rates are going to be slightly less negative. (real rates = nominal rates minus price inflation).
Although he mentioned spoofing and derivatives, he doesn't seem to realise how pervasive and how huge the manipulation is.
Me thinketh really enjoy the great guests, Tom's questions, the intent listening, paraphrasing, occasional summarizing and especially the…….conversational style!@?🤪😉
Great interview! Adam is very knowledgeable, thx.
I always have a hard time looking past the fact that is is stamped on the 1 ounce gold eagle, FIFTY DOLLARS. ONE DOLLAR, on the silver eagle. I understand the insanity. Reality will kick our ass one day.😬
Thank you Tom and Adam! That was very insightful. Cheers Gentlemen
Interesting
We'll all be dead by 2026.
Diesel production is falling at double digit rates. RRC shows texas production falling even faster. Inventory/use has not been this low in decades and at current rates half of global energy supply will be gone in three years.
If you look at permian all the important eases like Texas ten Y were drilled before 2015. Any drilling now is just screwing around, there are no new productive leases.
90% of the oil industry is condensate and other fraud. The actual oil is a handful of shallow water or onshore wells and those are nearing death. Only 15% of American imports are even a reasonable api (30-40). The vast majority of oil is fake at this point. By 1970 primary recovery had peaked and by 2000 virtually all the onshore wells were dead
In Saudi there are no significant new oil projects for years and Aramco is firing people. Nowhere in the world seems to have any real chance of drilling a significant number of new wells. The oil industry is dead, it just takes another 3 years for people to die physical. Production is stable as long as projects are done. Since there’s no new projects since 2015 the production will die. Even 2015 was just tertiary, GOSP in 2005 was the last thing. Saudi production will collapse, furthermore the light oil is presumably being used domestically. Half of Saudi production is light according to a 1999 estimate so it’s less now.
I met with the CEO of one of the largest oil field service company in the US and he told me Upstream CEOs are rethinking their capital allocation decisions and beginning to drop Rigs even in the Permian. All would be thrilled with flat to slightly lower production and the current product price will be used to pay down debt and pay out dividends. Finally the CEO’s are acting more rationally.
The import quality is falling extremely fast, car production is collapsing
an example including Germany- and everyone will die. Or at least the majority of the population, the rest will subsist on soylent green and slowly die as the remaining topsoil goes away.
Civilization is collapsing in a pathetic way. Utilities die first because they’re inelastic. As a result we will see seasonal blackouts and everyone will assume things will go back to normal. This will happen for 3 years until it starts affecting food and it’s obvious that oil is a problem.
Oil is the only thing with a good eroi, it comes out of the ground on its own. Everything else is a house of cards balanced on oil.
Society is collapsing extremely fast, everything is in deficit.
There is no solution.
This guy looks good for 48 💪🫡
Tom has listened to hundreds of guests , but he never seems to form his own opinion , or challenge his guest in conversation , many of his speakers are contradictory to each other , so where does the truth lie , maybe before the show they have an agreement Tom you’ve got to agree with me or I don’t come on your show
Tom has listened to hundreds of guests , but he never seems to form his own opinion or challenge his guests , every person on the show he just kind of goes along with them , even though many participants contradict each other hard to find out where the truth lies
Oh I get it
He's exactly right ont he cause of inflation. The interest rate is one thing but the corona BS money printing orgy ACROSS THE WEST is what did this.
Now WE need to suffer because of it.
Wow, Adam Hamilton, he's been in gold and silver since at least 2001. I thought he'd be in his 70s or 80s. This is the first time I've ever seen him.
Good guest. Very interesting.
Fantastic guest
Great discussion and guest. Kudos. Guys, this is the 'BIG ONE' we have been waiting for. The 'Reset' is incoming. Gold is the magic carpet ride. Miners are at serious risk of nationalization/windfall taxes.
Remembering nanocap goldstock picking competitions at Bills with this most excellent guy! Keep it up Adam! – Dan 🙂
_I was trading on my own, I barely made anything from the market always FUD at every little dip until a friend that works at fidelity investments recommended a financial advisor Catherine Ann Setraycic that has managed my portfolio from $270k to $324k in 8 months.>
You guys are dancing around that the U.S. and the world are tapped, broke, insolvent and bankrupt. I was a middle market asset based lender in the 1970's. Our situation today is dire compared to then. We thought the wheels were coming off as Volker "wrung" billions of dollars out of the system through unheard of rates. It tamed inflation but the U.S. was thrown into the worst recession since the 1930's depression. People don't want to hear about it but we are at a SHTF point in the next 12 months. Prepare now for the absolute worst scenario you can perceive. Even if it doesn't reach those depths, you'll make it.