As 2019 is coming to an end, trading experts and analysts are busy compiling their oil price forecast for the coming year. So far, the oil price in December 2019 has seen a slight increase compared to the previous month, but will this tendency continue throughout the months to come?
Well, when looking at the crude oil chart analysis, it’s important to note the influence of both predictable, as well as ‘black swan’ (or unpredictable) global events that can have an equally significant impact on oil prices.
However, as it’s obviously not possible to take black swans into consideration when talking about the future, we’d like to outline some of the most prominent factors that we already know of.
For instance, we’ve witnessed the US become a petroleum exporter, and most believe that this tendency will continue to grow (albeit at a slower pace) in 2020. Furthermore, the US has seen a rise in active oil rigs which is expected to be stable this year, and that too will without doubt affect the oil price chart. Then another thing to have in mind for the oil price technical analysis has to do with the prices on both oil and gas remaining range-bound.
In addition, the US-China trade war has been a major influence on the oil price chart analysis in December 2019, prompting a three-month high in the middle of the month. And it will certainly continue to be a huge factor in 2020. Then back to the non-OPEC supply scene, due to its rise in production, any unexpected outages won’t be likely to significantly affect oil prices, which would’ve been the case some 5-10 years ago.
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