Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil. “The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don’t expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets. We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out.” Watch the full interview featuring David Woo and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3Pds1Ro.
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“It Is All About Oil Prices”
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31 Comments
What is this guy smoking?
This guy… does he think the UK is planning for blackouts this winter because “Ukraine is over”
It’s ironic to watch a podcast with ex-CIA spy saying yesterday that Russia is winning the war and a geopolitical strategist saying the opposite
It was definitely worst guest ever.
The Russians have been steadily chewing through the best troops and most elaborately developed defenses Ukraine has to offer. They allow Ukraine to send in more troops to be blown up by artillery. There is no advantage to moving quickly. Their strategy is to demilitarize Ukraine without devastating the entire country (which they could do in a heartbeat).
Also, the Biden war on oil continues so if reading the oil price is the key, I am surprised he doesn't predict rising prices in oil. Even before the geopolitical risk premium is calculated, the world continues to demand more oil post-Covid.
I would have been interested in hearing more about how he arrived at the conclusion that Europe is going to fill its winter storage. I hadn't heard that from anyone else before.
Papic doesn't seem to have any intellectual depth to support his baseless geopolitical claims. He needs better information dissemination channels to form half decent arguments. He's out of his element based on what I heard. I wouldn't trust the strategies offered by his company if my life depended on it.
This guys is a bit too cocky. Maybe he’s trying to build his brand, idk. But he causes him to appear biased, in terms of Russia. Just makes it harder to take him seriously
Come back to him when Odessa falls
Isn’t this the guys who said, a few months ago, that People in Russia would never tolerate this war, right from the beginning?
I enjoy hearing opinions but these claims sound like that Ukraine propaganda we heard months ago about how dominant they were. You know before they started begging everyone for resources. Since when did someone join an alliance after a war started because they're not afraid of opposition.
Mr. Papic's ill-concealed Russophobia is evident every time he appears on a podcast. It's difficult to believe it doesn't influence his judgement. As always, he delivers those judgements forcefully and without balance. In fairness to all those fellow-viewers giving this comment a thumbs down, I have to admit I only made it to the 14-minute mark; I simply couldn't take any more.
We are watching turkey…
That would be great if oil goes down 20% more. I sold oil in May I have my eye on XLE now.
This guy is a clown. His analysis of the Ukraine conflict is completely wrong as is his analysis of the gas situation in Europe. The fact that Russia has not been heavy handed with Europe because they are showing compassion. This guy is mistaking kindness for weakness. What a fool! 🤡
putin plans are to destroy his wonderful country – he must be an alien plant from another world
Marko Papic is a pathetically Neocon hysterical INCOMPETENT geopolitical mouthpiece.
It's actually shameful to see him vomiting a load of uninformation on the war in Ukraine.
Myself, I lived in Ukraine almost 16 years and saw in loco almost all that took us to this war.
Furthermore, anyone with capacity to understand what's happening, propaganda apart, Russia is winning. And definitely, Russia will achieve All its named goals.
And that's not all.
The aftermath of this war will be a lot of changes, in line with the 4th turning.
Marko's DC based views on the Russia Ukraine are absolutely WRONG.
It is actually sad to see someone whom, said by himself, lived the Yugoslavia War, to claim that "the US can tolerate geopolitical tensions" … Like if US were a side of peace and appeasement… UAU…
This guy really hates russia, stop the antagonism and russia hating and just give us the facts.
Spot on!! Marco have you listened to or read 📚 Peter Zeihan? Many same thought process.
Real vision’s credibility is taking a real “hit”by hosting this interview. The presenters anti Russian bias is stunning and distorts actual events. His China analysis is naive at best.
Totally disagree with his views on Russia, he listens to too much mainstream media
Marko Papik has a clear political bias against Putin making it very difficult to digest his economic analysis. I hope RV does not bring people with political agendas. Leave that to Fox News and CNN.
Please remove the loud ending music I use this to sleep
The bitcoin people speak.
Putin is a ex KGB imperialist. He said many times he wants Ukraine no matter what from a geopolitical stance….he already has Belarus.
Seriously You really believe Putin give up, accept failure and as result risk being killed. You never studied East European history and dont know Russians ? Dude At least watch Game of Thrones.
Putin will just keep fighting, in Russia human life has little value….it last man standing ….suffering and endurance.
I guess you can go far by drawing graphs, laying them on top of each other and seeing analogies. Papic has gone one better by talking fast and also doing a little arithmetic too. But “ these guys” ( papic, Zeihan, Bremmer and even BCA research ) sell a product that is in much demand in uncertain times among people with money, namely, easy opinions dramatically stated.
Actually, being negative on China’s future is far from the lonely opinion that Papic self servingly claims for himself- just look around mainstream media- it is consensus.
The Yougoslavian guy who hates russia has many charts…I give him that. I also give him an advice… go for work for the Biden regime…(he really likes the word "regime" )
Donbas an Crimea have huge gas and oil fields. It's probably one of the leading arguments for the invasion.
Wow the pro Russian (bots) did not like that analysis. 😂😂😂😂 Russia will collapse from this war and sooner than most think. 😛😛😛😛
I was disappointed by his geopolitical analysis. It doesn't factor in the effect of the Russian pivot to Eurasia. Doesn't factor in the effect of Russia not supplying gas to Europe this winter and how this can crash Europe's industries. Doesn't factor in that even if Russia is getting hurt its much worse for Europe in case of inflation caused mainly by printing lots of money in the last few years. Alistair Macleod gives a much better insight on Europe and he pinpoints the fact that Europe even without the gas crisis, is in crisis because of printing too much money and the massive potential bad debts in the ECB banking settlement system
Thx fellas.