Oil, gas and mining

2022 Stock Market Crash | When it Ends and When I’m Buying



The 2022 stock market crash is back and there’s no sign stocks will stop falling…unless you know what to look for! I’ll show you my strategy and all this week’s stock market news. Don’t miss the conversation, join the subreddit! https://www.reddit.com/r/LetsTalkMoneyChannel/

We’re back into the bear market with stocks in the S&P 500 down 20%-plus from their January peak of 4800 and things are likely to get worse. I’m again seeing questions on the videos and on social asking when will stocks stop falling so I wanted to share my strategy. Having a strategy for when you invest is so important, not as a way to time the market but as a way to keep your sanity. Having specific points you watch for will keep you from watching the market every day and wondering if now is the time to invest. Make a strategy and keep to it.

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I want to first outline why I think stocks will keep falling and then what I’m watching for as signals that the worst might be over. By its own admission, the Fed is expected to raise rates by at least another 1% over the rest of the year. We’ve only just begun to see the economy slowing from previous hikes so it won’t be long before the market shows us real signs of a recession in housing, retail sales and jobs.

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Inflation won’t come down until the jobs market cools so I’m also looking for two or three months of consistently weaker jobs numbers. Until then, the pressure will be on the Fed to keep rates high. Finally, I’m watching for the market to come to the realization that there will be a recession.

For when to invest, I’m going back to a strategy of planned levels where I put cash to work. I’m currently holding about 30% of my portfolio in cash to step into stocks at three levels, putting some to work but still keeping some back if the market continues to fall.

My first level is 3500 on the S&P 500 which would be 27% from the January peak and a new low for the year. Average bear markets have seen stocks fall 30% so I want to start putting some money back to work at this point. My second level would be 3200 or about 33% from the peak and for each of these I would probably invest a third of my cash. Finally, if the S&P 500 falls to 3000 or 37% from the peak, I would invest the rest of my cash.

We don’t see any signs of systemic problems like in 2008 so I don’t think stocks fall much more than 40% from the peak though it is possible. I like 3000 because it would be about 15-times my estimate for S&P earnings of 200 per share next year. Analysts are expecting S&P earnings of $226 this year to grow to $243 next year but the average recession chops 10% off corporate earnings. So estimating a 10% haircut from this year’s earnings gets us to $200 per share for companies in the index next year. Then looking at a historical PE chart, 15-times has always been a good time to invest so even if stocks fall further down from 3000, I feel confident that long-term returns would be good.

Stocks may not fall that far but I don’t want to jump back in too early either though. The market is now under 3700 and still has the utility bill shock as well as the eventual capitulation for a recession to deal with. I believe both of these will shock stocks lower when they occur.

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Joseph Hogue, CFA spent nearly a decade as an investment analyst for institutional firms and banks. He now helps people understand their financial lives through debt payoff strategies, investing and ways to save more money. He has appeared on Bloomberg and on sites like CNBC and Morningstar. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a veteran of the Marine Corps.

48 Comments

  2. Thomas Landin

    find your knowledge fantastic and the way that you explain is a great help. <I would love to know how you studied this all. <In as much I would like to add to what you have said here the market is in a tug of war with the bull at one side and the bears at the other end. If this is really a bear market rally then Bitcoin is not done going down, just like stocks are not done going down. We are seeing the positions filled, the price goes, up, then a new wave of selling comes in, hit the new orders again and repeat, looks like someone accumulating hard. From a technical perspective, as expected, the price might continue to move lower so this is a normal process and bitcoin is accumulating bullish trading volume. My hope is that by the fourth quarter, the economy will be slowing enough that the Fed says we are going to pause, and then you will see the next crypto cycle start. I have witnessed the last 3 cycles and just before each bull run the amount of bear posts and negativity around crypto is just like it is now. Bitcoin is entering the area of where a bottom will be formed IMO. Please note this could take months and there will likely be further volatility in both directions. Despite the volatility that has ruled the market this year, being a retail trader in the crypto market and implementing strategies/signals from Brycen Stanley a professional broker/trader that has been my mentor, I have accumulated 6.5’ btc! in profits although the rates are capricious wiping out some of my profits, people who are open to learning from history, will survive It’s not that difficult. You can reach out to Mr Brycen on <ͲeIєɠɾαm his personal handle @Brycensignals orr What'sapp 12706934096. For more investment related issues…..…

  4. Elusive 1123

    Why would anyone want the consumer to “save the economy”? If the consumer could “save the economy” inflation would get even worse. There is no “saving the economy” in this case because it is part of the business cycle. I’m fact, everything in nature works the same way; everything that goes up must come down and vise-versa. This is what I dislike about the financial sector, it’s full of tricks and made to sound more confusing than it really is.

  6. blackmagick77

    You should try or talk about the Bond ETF rotation strategy. I've read good things about it and it seems like itbwould be pretty good for the current economic environment

  9. Kelly Edren

    😀l am so happy my financial life has totally changed ever since I ventured into stock investment. Ive been earning over $18,000 dollars every single week.

  12. LuiEVero

    We'll know in NOVEMBER!
    Everyone knows why the market is falling! It's the same reason inflation is skyrocketing! It's because the Socialist/Communist DEMOCRATS are running the show!

    I mean, how STUPID can you get… The US has a fuel base economy.. and what is the first thing the DEMOCRATS have biden do right after the takeover? Sign away the US's energy independence! They closed down the US's oil supply!

    The ONLY way the market will go back up, is if the REPUBLICANS take over both houses in NOVEMBER.

    Otherwise, the US will SINK like a LEAD BALLON!

  13. rich f

    I really appreciate these videos and welcome to Tampa Bay! we are at almost all cash ,just waiting for the right levels so this video is what the doctor ordered. I'm a resident of Pinellas county across the bay, we are watching your video in between boarding up windows for the hurricane. stay safe my friend.

  18. Mods Raymond

    Awesome! your potential seems timeless. Understanding your financial needs and chalking out a plan remains the smart way to prepare for the unexpected. 11yrs in investing space and extremely pleased with the decision I made. 🎯

  20. matt Colbourne

    Watching from the Scotland, UK 🇬🇧
    The utility bills over here is absolutely crazy, last year I was £97 per month for electricity and mains Gas, Now I’m £267 a month and from October 1st it’s rising to £313 a month. 😮

  21. Janet Mason

    It’s a new week and we’ve been facing a downward market ever since the dump in digital assets this year but on the bright side I have a well trained professional trader who helps me go home with a very satisfying amount in profits, I’m so grateful to him.

  22. Elincia64

    Michael Burry pointed retail investors towards the inverse fund EPV:US. It has been building steadily this year, and really taken off this month with everything that has been happening.

    If Europe experiences a steady financial decline over the next few months what is the potential upside of an inverse ETF like EPV? It spiked to above $50 during the initial COVID shock, what would have to happen for this to be reached again?

  23. Brian Rodriguez

    I will forever be indebted to you, You've changed my whole life and i continue to preach about your name for the whole world to hear you've saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment,Thanks so much Luciana cruz

  24. Gary Foreman

    Another great recap before the week kicks off.
    Is there any new technologies your looking at atm? I love to see you do a video on carbon credits as this commodity is expected to be high by 2030!! I can only see a kraneshare etf!!

  29. Adam Kuykendall

    Hey Joseph, hope you're family and you held through from the hurricane. Still watching from Temple, TX. Buying NRG, and CRT this month, but holding funds as well. Anticipate more decline, a depression would not surprise me with current administration. I have some funds on hold for future buys. God bless, from a dogface, hooah.

  31. Mesut Serim

    My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit.

  34. Eaglegp

    Did you add in the highly political global pre war adjustments? And if we get unto a few tosses? Limited nuclear war. And, Euphrates river 4 issue?

  38. Max Barnett

    I< have been following you since 2020 and you have come to be one of the most trusted channels I watch. We know that mortgage rates are on the rise limiting the buying power of those looking to invest. It is critical to understand that buying power is not a true reflection of the real estate market. So if a buyer was able to afford a monthly payment in 2020 of $4000 per month, which might have put them into a $600,000 home, that same payment today may only afford that family a $500,000 home. Does that mean that the Long Island real estate market is down? No. But it does mean that buyers need to accept this reality. When people started telling me that housing prices will never go down and I am stupid to wait… I knew waiting was the right thing to do. The homes in my area are 200 to 300 thousand above pre pandemic prices. Something has to give, either we have low rates and rising home prices or high interest and declining home prices. We cannot have both high rates AND high home prices. You need to invest today because your money is more valuable today than it will be in a year. Investing should always be a process over time, but when you're in a high inflation environment and the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy, it is without a doubt a riskier time to be in equities, but you have to be mindful of the disciplines that are important to help you navigate through what is generally a more volatile period of time. Even within equities, you may want to rotate into areas that generally perform better in higher inflation like the crypto market which i have played part in. I've made over 16.3 BTC with 4.5 BTC from day trading using trade signal from my Investment Advisor, Mr. Brooks Harrison. His insights and trade signal brings good return on investment. Teaching is just like parable and clear for the wise. This is one of the best tools to shield your prosperity when it starts to downturn. Reach out to him on ͲeIєɠɾαm @Brooksharrison

  39. Erica Stewart

    I realized that the secret to making a million is saving for a better investment. I always tell myself you don't need that new Maserati or that vacation just yet. That mindset helped me make more money investing. For example last year I invested 80k in stocks (with the help of my Financial Advisor of course) and made about 246k, but guess what? I put it all back and traded with her again and now I'm rounding up close to a million.

  42. James Bradley

    Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life

  43. Wayne Hornsby

    New Viewer! Enjoyed the video.
    New Investor! I fell in love with TQQQ. December market began changing. I was perplexed.

    I heard 2 things on CNBC.
    Don’t fight the FED!
    Rates are at historic all time lows.
    We Shorted 10YR Micro and bought TMV a 3x Inverse ETF. Had I more maturity and held, we would be up way over 800% on the 10YR. Since February we are up 95%

  45. Brant Richardson

    Question. I understand dividing your cash into 1/3's and using it to buy at certain points as the S&P drops but what percent of your total investing money is currently in cash? I'm still 75% in cash and thinking I should be a little more aggressive than your plan.

  48. Vera William

    I will forever be indebted to you, you have changed my entire life. I will continue to preach on your name for the world to hear that you save me from a huge financial debt with just a little investment,thank you very much Mrs Fadhilah Hana Rifdah.

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