I walk you through the latest frontline news and discuss a number of other things pertinent to the conflict.

    My latest article on Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling: https://onlysky.media/jpearce/will-putin-go-nuclear/

    Video on trucks and rail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUX9HPhMncc

    Books: https://www.amazon.com/Jonathan-MS-Pearce/e/B004DAVFKC?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_2&qid=1633620617&sr=8-2

    Blog/column: https://onlysky.media/jpearce/

    Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and YouTube channel. https://www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/49320825

    Buy me a coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/GkxsyfQ

    Paypal Donate: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/johnnyp76

    Music: bensound.com

    22 Comments

    1. I’ve recommended a few interesting videos for you to watch in your past fee videos. I’m not sure if YouTube is showing them to you or shadow banning them. Just wondering if you’re seeing them.

    2. Great analysis. Things are moving fast in the North East but the maps are slow to change. It looks like the Ukraine army are biding their time in Kherson while the Russian run out of supplies, and are concentrating on the weaker NE area for now.

    3. Russia πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is stopping conscription age people from leaving now. Konstantin on Inside Russia said 5 people ahead of him in line were turned back by the Russian authorities.

    4. The new troops are being urged to bring tampons to bind up wounds. I would think a better purpose used earlier in their deployment would be as white flags of surrender.

    5. Thanks for the analysis. Great stuff. Just a thought: I can agree maybe another week before the cannon fodder arrives. So my priority for Ukraine (and it's tough to say it) should be to kill and/or capture, as many russian troops currently in theatre as possible. These guys have experience and will be needed immediately to be the russian command structure (corps to field officers). Territory is nice but second priority. I've studied the battle of Borodino where Napolean missed this point. It cost him big time. Just my thought of course.

    6. Regarding Russians fleeing their country to avoid conscription, the UNHRC itself recognizes conscription as a legal component of a nation's right of self-defense, saying: "Fear of prosecution or punishment for draft-evasion does not in itself constitute well-founded fear of persecution under the definition. Conversely, draft-evasion does not exclude a person from being a refugee. He or she may be a draft evador and a refugee."

      So, for example, Russians who flee and request asylum because they're about to be conscripted may not have a legitimate claim if, for example, they are ethnic Russians in full support of Putin's invasion until they were roped into it. On the other hand, ethnic minorities deliberately targeted for conscription (e.g. the Tartars in Crimea) would likely have a very strong case for asylum.

      Here's the rest of the UNHRC's outline of their asylum policy regarding conscripts:

      1) There are cases where the necessity to perform military service may be the sole ground for a claim to refugee status, i.e. when a person can show that the performance of military service would have required his participation in military action contrary to his genuine political, religious or moral convictions, or to valid reasons of conscience;

      2) Not every conviction, genuine though it may be, will constitute a sufficient reason for claiming refugee status after draft-evasion. Where however the type of military action, with which an individual does not wish to be associated, is condemned by the international community as contrary to basic rules of human conduct, punishment for draft-evasion could, in the light of all other requirements of the definition, in itself be regarded as persecution:

      3) A person whose refusal to perform military service is based on genuine religious, moral or political convictions can also be considered a refugee, provided that the genuineness of such convictions and the likelihood of prosecution and sanction, or other treatment amounting to persecution, are established.

      4) Assuming that the religious, moral or political conviction advanced is reasonably credible, and surrounding circumstances of the case do not argue otherwise, a draft evador of that description may be accorded refugee status even though the punishment be faces does not differ substantially from that meted out generally for this offence because of simple disinclination to serve.

    7. I agree in Kherson , just hit all the supplies to empty , Orcs must surrender . Main attack in the North and North east Donbas to weak the enemy and break their bones supplies in border to stop the cannon fodders arrive .

    8. Excellent reporting and updates. Thank you! Greetings from San Antonio, Texas, USA.
      SLAVA UKRAINE !πŸ’™πŸ’›πŸ’™πŸ’›
      πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦
      πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™πŸŒ»πŸŒ»πŸŒ»πŸŒ»πŸŒ»πŸŒ»

    9. I keep hearing reports that Ukraine is losing a lot of equipment and manpower in the Kherson region. If the main goal of Ukraine is to disrupt Russian supply lines in that area, and HIMARS can hit anything in the region, why is Ukraine going on the offensive in Kherson? Why not stay on defense and hit supply lines with HIMARS?

      I don’t think the Kherson counter-offensive has failed, but I would think Ukraine would only advance if they knew it was beneficial for them to do so. It’s not like Russia can move equipment easily out of Kherson, so it’s not like Ukraine is forcing Russia to keep equipment there.

    10. You need to realize this is a state of war , not a normal climate of immigration. They didnt want yo flee when ukrain was invaded only now because they fear for their own asses. That's not a political assylum seaker just a coward. The west will soon be sucked into this conflict , ready or not here we go.

    Leave A Reply
    Share via