Oil, gas and mining

Full Episode: Can Europe Keep the Home Fires Burning?



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Headlines will tell you that Europe is in for a tough winter, with Vladimir Putin cutting off Russian natural gas exports at the onset of the heating-demand season.

But is this “crisis” overblown? Real Vision’s Senior Markets Editor Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake to separate fact from the narrative when it comes to the European energy story – and to explain why he’s bearish on natural gas over the next three to four months.

“Europe is not going to freeze,” Andreas forecasts, “but they are stuck in a big mess this winter.” Andreas and Maggie also talk about the differences between the U.S. and the E.U. when it comes to growth as well as polarization and disinformation in the energy space and whether authorities have a plan (or even the power) to counter these problems.

“We need to look at what’s already priced in” when it comes to Europe, notes Andreas. That’s the key to how he’s trading energy right now. Recorded on September 8, 2022.

Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!

#energycrisis #energysector #europenews

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17 Comments

  8. wolf B

    Also, France is now sending gas to Germany via a pipeline that usually supplies France via Germany, while Germany is providing France with electricity., despite the (false) narrative in social media that Germany has problems generating enough electricity.

  9. wolf B

    Little reminder(since "not kicked out of the EU" was mentioned concerning Hungary's openly offensive postion): There is absolutely no mechanism to kick out an EU member whatsoever. The only mechanisms available to the EU are limiting voting rights through art 7 and freezing funds. EU court of justice plays a role in this. Just so listeners do understand, it's not "tolerated" that i.e. Hungary is opposing the EU's position, there simply is no mechanism to get rid of such a member, even though a majority would not be unhappy about that. Same goes for Poland btw.

  10. ODIN

    Russia is making more money now selling 40 bcm to Europe than they did one year ago selling 300. The 10% recession figure that was stated is fake. Interest rates in Russia have been continuously falling and they anticipate around 2-4% fall in GDP. All their trade is redirected to Asia. It's naive to assume they will stop their plans for Ukraine.

  11. wolf B

    Greetings from Germany & Thank You! One can learn more in one video with Andreas than trying to navigate news & media and discussions in the political arenas across Europe for months ….
    Concerning Germany's historic position concerning Russia. One should not forget, that Germany's "Ostpolitik" including "Wandel durch Handel" (Change through trade) brought a lot of relaxation of tensions between East and West and was ultimately very successful resulting in Eastern Europe moving ever closer and become an integral part of the West and the EU incl. of course the DDR (DDR) to dissolve and become a part of a reunited Germany. Nobody in their right mind (not only in Germany, but across most of Europe) would have never thought that Russia would be so suicidal and invade the Ukraine. Russia miscalculated the European and American reaction to this 100% and it will be the downfall of Putin, whether this is taking a year, five or ten. NOBODY expected Russia to be so irrational, even though they were able to get away with the annexation of Crimea. But another question to be asked in this entire saga is the following: Who talked the Ukraine out of implementing the minsk treaty, that was negotiated in the so called Normandy format with Germany/France and Russia/Ukraine. This treaty was not only negotiated, it was signed and ratified! To answer this question will be the task of historians, because I do not see politicians of certain Western and one Eastern European power (I would be able to identify 3 culprits here) willing to admit or discuss this for the coming decades.

  13. BA 117

    These two are just as clueless about Russia's strategy as the rest of the western media which is quite a feat given that Putin clearly spells it out in his speeches and that these are published in English on the web… No mind reading required (!)

  14. The Hylander

    30:00 What other leverage is there? Easy. Russia can play with oil. After all they’re a major producer of the oil market and can do things to cause oil to hit 200-300$ and they’ll make money as oil price goes up doing it. The oil market is very tight so it doesn’t take much supply to go offline to cause the price to increase..

  16. R. L.

    "Russia is in a bind" I respectfully disagree they are selling much of their oil to India & China (at elevated prices no less). Then its refined and sold back to the west via under ground distribution channels at nose bleed prices. Price discover happens no matter what people do and demands are meet!

  17. RideReport

    The top in energy might be here in USD terms, but if the ECB is defending the currency (QE) while subsidizing energy costs to the tune of 10% of GDP. I’d imagine commodity prices will be bullish in euro terms.

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