Oil stocks are a buy now because oil prices will come back to a supply and demand average balance. So, oil stocks that survive the year with huge oversupply will do good and pay good dividends in the future. Look for value and avoid risky plays with a lot of debt.
At current levels 68% of US oil production is completely unfeasible and just that would remove 8 mb/d from supply and correct the price if the situation persists over a year. So, the average long-term price of oil will be higher than $30.
On stocks – we have to differentiate between rebound buys and long-term investments. Exxon XOM will likely rebound as oil prices go up and the oil price war ends, but their growth strategy might not work well over the long-term as a small decline in demand might lead to long-term oversupply. This adds to the risk. Similarly, creditors have shows confidence in the sector by giving Shell (RDS) $12 billion in credit so the dividends can keep coming. But, taking on debt to pay a dividend is simply stupid in my opinion. Lundin Petroleum can break-even at $17, the Russians have similar costs when it comes to producing so there are companies that will make money no matter the environment.
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