Everyone thought that June was the Crypto market low…and they were incorrect. What if there is more pain on the way AND based on diminishing returns Bitcoin can only hit 40k in the next cycle?
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43 Comments
This is an awesome time in the market!
What happened to DCA? Are u guys done with James?
Next year will be the start of the debt crises & the fed will be forced to lower interest rates & print free money.
China have already eased restrictions, its priced in. Russia are invreasing aggresion and are likely sending another 200k troops in january. Inflation is still high and shows no signs of coming down anywhere near fast enough. Sorry but there isnt much to help.
$400 ETH…guess I'll be able to top iff and soon be starting my own node. I am drooling for a sub $500 ETH.
Ethereum and Cardano are securities. As soon as Coinbase gets their cease and desist letter from the SEC, these tokens are going to complete their 95% drops respectively. Sorry, just the truth.
475 is a happy number for me
The 4 year cycle is interesting. Miner rewards are cut in half at the halving. Near the bottom miners that leveraged (bought their machines on credit) are under stress. I guess if we didn't get higher prices somewhere in the cycle all miners would be in trouble. So the 4 year cycle has to "work" otherwise few would be incentivized to mine (of course, the difficulty adjustments help mitigate this). I fancy one of those "HeatBits" just so I can be a "casual miner". I have bought ETH as low as $210 in 2020 so the lower prices don't bother me. I swapped my ETH for BTC at prices $1260/$16600, when my ETH cost basis was $1300. Wanted to book a small capital loss to offset high taxes (and lower than needed withholding) this year. I am not averse to buying ETH again at the prices you are suggesting, although I notice my loyalty to BTC is higher than my loyalty to ETH.
I enjoyed the breakdown of the cycles🤷
As you said, the past doesn't have to repeat itself. But going off past performance the last couple runs, ETH and BTC went 3X previous ATH. Personally I think we will see ETH flip BTC on market cap by the next bull run.When sharding is complete, and the Layer 2's running on all cylinders, which is coming around March-June, adoption should explode.
Buy @swftcoin make up your losses. SWFTC is in Coinbase low cap only 4 billion circulating supply price 0.0010. Do your own research.
Crypto market made a classic double market low, it's funny how YouTubers talking about lengthening cycles, 32k low, 20k and so on, this entire year now turned perma bears once that started bringing in the views. Bad year, fear, boredom, slow pace don't bring in the clicks, why not push the fear angle…now, finally.
I need my daily dose of realism. 😊
crypto is young men scamming other young men until no one is left scamming.
Yeah!
Eth at 475 or below is a steal
Best Crypto Regulation:
Crypto exchanges hold 1 to 1 any token you have and fdic insurance for at least $250,000 on any cash …
…to be audited bi-monthly …
/// about Gary the gensler… he did not go after SBF because he was part of the serade!
karma usually catches up…
May you also please discuss the potential ATH. Need some hopium dose. Thank you.
if Bitcoin goes to only 40k I will make a fortune off all my DCA purchases since June. Bring it.
I don't think you're taking into account the concept of exponential growth I think Bitcoin could go to $250,000 next cycle there's only so many Bitcoin and if 10 million people buy one Bitcoin and decide to hold it for 10 years that's what to think about. Same with every other coin. There is enough money in Africa alone to drive Bitcoin to that price once people understand it
We expect the price of these assets to move with fundamentals. Chart guys expect prices to move under the idea that the line on a chart has a mind of its own.
With all due respect ROB, the market in 2017 is not the same as 2022. Crypto is much bigger now, especially with the advent of NFT’s.
RICH FOLKS LIKE Rob are wishing for further crashes, so they could buy more. For most folk out there, a further crash is just more pain.
I hope regulation comes in soon enough and smashes the market hard. Anyone issuing tokens for capital is a security.
They should be considered securities.
Can you for God sake change 67,000ath chart to the correct one! You are showing the 2017-2018 charts. You have shown it incorrectly about 4 times now
I think it'll be your least popular video because there was so many flaws with the logic and analysis.
you parot richard heart well these days lol
That’s one of the best breakdowns of the cycles. Love the simplicity and clarity. Thanks Rob!
There is a fundamental issue with this extrapolated mathematical thesis Rob. You are basically saying with diminishing returns and roughly similar drawdowns going forward, BTC will never hit its ATH again. Of course this is entirely possible but with what we know about fiat currencies is this probable?
If you propose a 4x from a bottom price under 15k (ie 10k in your example), then following the next BTC halving we won't hit above 60k. A similar 80% drawdown following that and diminishing returns in the next cycle would put BTC at 8-12k. With each cycle you would see lower lows and lower highs. I would ask myself if this is likely.
ADA drops like a rock, but it rises like a rocket.
Crypto is an exponential asset so there is something very flawed mathematically in this 1/5 ROI cycle to cycle.
I am not sure what and i've seen this idea floating around a bit.
So going wth the theory and the next cycle top can only be a 4x with a 40k peak, for the first time. our peak is lower than the previous.
I do not know how this is remotely possible if crypto is to be a growth industry?
What's more, where do we end up if we extrapolate this idea several cycles forward?
We end up with negative returns in a growing asset class,
Impossible.
My eth buy orders start at $640 down to $500
Has Rob decoupled from James for good?
What's the definition of a s coin?
Love your videos, Rob. The one thing not accounted for is network adoption, which is the most important element. It’s that which will take Bitcoin and certain crypto way higher.
Everyone in the space has become conditioned to the idea that 4 year cycle is a sure thing. Buy here, sell here, easy. What typically happens in those scenarios is the sure thing no longer plays out that way. This time may well be significantly different in terms of timing. The economic landscape is nothing like what it was when the previous cycles played out.
I though this was great Rob!!
Well the argument against lower is time, time historically beats price. So fundamentally speaking we are very close to that time we put in macro bottoms. It’s more likely that we bounce off the current lows and try for a move up to around 19.6k which would flip the bi weekly bullish. Fundamentally speaking, DXY is likely to rally to 105-107 over the next two weeks in this low volatility environment. This will continue to pressure risk assets down. Probably get a couple of bounces along the way. However the ECB is just state I guess it’s hiking cycle, and it will be outpacing the dollar and likely press the dollar back down in Q1. Notice the dollar hasn’t rallied, mostly because the ECB matched our hike. Markets dumped but the dollar went flat. Bears got two weeks to push things down further, before markets likely bounce.
Hi. Could Binance Smart Chain and our Trust Wallet funds be affected if Binance ever shuts down or goes bankrupt? In addition, maybe you could explain two important things 1) how to possibly transfer your coins safely from the Binance exchange to a wallet, e.g. Trust wallet and 2) how to change coins from BSC to e.g. Eth in Trust Wallet if you think that BSC is also a threat. I think it's a good topic for a new movie. Please explain this to your viewers.
Yeah I think Bitcoin will be well over 40,000 by that time
No reason to think it can't get to a 2 tril market cap. But yeah gains might be alot lower in the future. Something for maxis to think about. 🤔
good opportunity
None of that scares me. What scares me is my senator, Tester (D) Montana saying we need to get rid of crypto. Bafoone.
Rob, last 30 seconds…you said regulate in a defi ??? and it was ok with you? You lost me. What is ok…regulating it away? I could not track. Sorry.
There’s no way I’d invest nearly 17k on Bitcoin! Imagine the risk of placing that in the hands of a community/industry that’s become nothing an environment of fraud.