Why would the Russians blow up their own multi-billion-dollar Nord Stream pipelines?
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Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Quick Take to kick off your week, and I want to talk about Nord Stream one and two. These are the pipelines, the gas pipelines that the Germans had wanted and the Russians had built, multi-billion dollar pipelines to bring gas from Russia into Germany and Europe. The United States had been very critical of these pipelines for years. The Trump administration particularly vocal about it, and only shut down after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and then sabotaged, blown up.
So who did it? It’s a big question. And the presumption immediately after the explosions back in September that came from the West and Ukraine was that it was the Russians. And there was no evidence, but you’re blaming the Russians for everything since they invaded Ukraine and they’re committing all these war crimes. But this one always struck me, Nord Stream, as not having enormous credibility, trying to figure out why would the Russians blow up their own multi-billion-dollar pipelines?
Especially because, when you talk to Russian advisors, the presumption was that, over time, over years, Russia’s focused on Ukraine. The Europeans perhaps not so much. The expense for the Europeans and providing support goes up. The costs, as they get colder over time, goes up and they get weary. And so having an option of getting Russian gas turned back on could be attractive for a potential peace movement. Not saying it’s going to happen, but certainly was seen as an option by the Russians that they wouldn’t want to suddenly take off the table by blowing up their own pipeline. So then after the pipelines were blown up, there have been a couple of investigations that the Europeans have conducted for months now. And there has been not a shred of evidence that has pointed to the Russians being responsible for this sabotage. And you’d know that if they found anything that pointed to Russia, because they’d want the world to know, they would tell us.
And especially after the extraordinary intelligence from the United States on Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine, as well as various faults, flag efforts that the Russians were scheming up as the drum beat of war was increasing, that the Americans made known to allies and some of which they made public. The fact that the United States has come up with nothing, I mean, I’m not just talking about fingerprints or signature on the explosions, I’m also talking about any communications, signals intelligence and email, anything from anyone involved in this effort. We have no idea who’s behind this. So it doesn’t smell right to me that the Russians are responsible. So then who is?
And, well, enter Seymour Hersh, a very well-known journalist. He got a Pulitzer Prize for his work uncovering the Mỹ Lai massacre by the United States in Vietnam. And he writes this extraordinary piece independently published on his Substack newsletter that fingers the United States and Norway in a covert operation blowing up these pipelines. It got huge attention, especially and predictably with Russian state media and the Russian government now saying that they’re planning on taking steps to retaliate. The question is, does the story hold up? If it does, it’s an extraordinary story. It would risk driving a wedge in the NATO coalition. It’s worth taking a look at. And I’ve done that now, and I will say that, as skeptical as I am that the Russians are behind Nord Stream one and two exploding, the Hersh story doesn’t hold up at all.
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22 Comments
i am pretty sure it was russians.
the statement of russian media and timing of explosion seem to line up.
Ukraine should never be blamed for fighting against the Russian war criminal invading and murdering their people.
What makes you think they didn't tell the Germans they were going to do it beforehand? Do you think they would tell you if they did 🤣 Put on your thinking cap before you make an analysis like this.
Good investigative reporting. The argument that the Russians did it to void penalties on non delivery under contract makes no sense. The pipeline is Russia's leverage to turn Europe away from Ukraine. It would be stupid to blow that up. On the other hand the US at the time and still is worried about the Germans being forced to bend the knee to get energy for their economy. Cutting off that choice makes a lot of sense. The Ukranians do not have the logistical capability to do it. It was us, and it worked out ok. For now.
In there who stands to gain the most, just fortuitous that America is now the exporter of energy to Europe ?
Yeah, it is unimaginable to think America might have done it… What is the gain that the US would get?? Unless out of her mind!!??
It had to be the Chinese, or perhaps the Western petroleum companies.
Ian, Biden said it himself the US would "bring an end to NS2" if Russian invaded Ukraine: https://youtube.com/shorts/FVbEoZXhCrM?feature=share
If I recall correctly, US Congress sanctioned both Nord Stream 2 AG and its chief executive, Matthias Warnig, to effectively block construction. Biden waived the sanctions – a gift to Merkel – in 2021. Why would he then destroy it?
Hunter biden did it.
I don’t put much stock in Hersh’s reporting. However, it would not surprise me at all if the US blew that pipeline up. Despite Mr. Bremmer’s admirable summary of why that is not possible, my confidence in American elites performing within guidelines is nil. We now have actors who can rationalize any action under the justification of their own very superior moral requirements. A brief look at Clapper & Cos. Biden laptop declarations indicates that anything they think they MUST do, is morally acceptable. So it may be in this event as well.
The other possibility not explored is that some rogue Russian elements were responsible. After all, as the Nordstream operators, Russians have the easiest access. And what we see now is real division between the RU military and other private armies controlled by Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and others not directly aligned to the military and / or Rosguardia. In this case, I am presuming that the technical capability to destroy the pipeline merely requires some operator to place explosives on the robot and then send it down the pipe before remote detonation. Obtainable with some payments. Anything more than that might be a stretch.
the worst part of the whole video is the BoA ad. Ian, are your values inline with BoA?
It’s a good, logical analysis, Ian, but if nations were moved just by logic, wars wouldn’t occur.
Seymour Hersch is an anti-American fabulist.
It was USA, obviously, they said it, they done it, they made most profit of it. Not the unusual or worst thing they have done thou…
POTUS said that "we will bring an end to it". that's not good enough for you?
It was the Poles! 😉
It’s obvious the us blew up the pipeline. Anyone who argues otherwise has not been paying attention and is willing to lie on behalf of the us government.
Seymour Hersh has-been. Turned into a circus act. Not even a Useful Idiot.
its not a surprise that its the americans, they are the only one benefiting from the dysfunction of it
Anyway, blowing up the Russian gas pipeline is one of the American hopes.