Why Did Russia Lose the Energy War: A Warographics Analysis

It´s almost as if opportunity bares trade.
I mean, it´s the same the other way around with the "sanctions." They didn´t do shit, other than opening a door for every 3rd world country and disliked dictator into more trade with Russia.

We have always had a bad relationship with Russia. You cannot trust them. There was an attempt to change that. To welcome them into the family. Thats why we made us dependent of them, and them of us. But it failed. Because after all you cannot trust them. They have a different agenda. They want to surround themselves with puppet states. As a buffer. But people in those states don't want to live under the wings of the Russian eagle. They have found out that we in west have a working car, a toilet, washing machine, a couple of weeks holiday, eat something else than cabbage soup. A lifestyle you only get in some few large cities or if you go west. So they go west. And Russia don't want to allow that. Many families in Russia have relatives in Belarus and Ukraine. If they find out they get material wealth they can just dream of, the will start making demands to get the same. But then the regime and the people on top, cannot steal the money. Russia will collapse in a second revolution. But in the end it is futile to hold back. People will start to demand washing machines. The west life style sells itself.

Meanwhile Canada can't even come together to build a pipeline for its own citizens let alone to be able to significantly help the EU

Ah yes – how honorable of USA to make a lot of money by selling its LNG ro us in Europe at inflated prices! If not for the Transatlantic solidarity they would have skipped this business opportunity. Sure.

As a german i have to say we have a left leaning green party which made shutting down atomic energy their mayor priority… its an ideology. there is no cure to that sadly.

Putin underestimated western resilience when it comes to adapting and changing to whatever is thrown at them, it's why the west are so successful, they change and also change the pace of change depending on need.

In the case of the Ukraine war, Putin forced the Europeans to change on energy a lot sooner than they normally would, which is likely going to kill the fossil industry much sooner than it would and is likely going to put constant downwards pressure on the price point.

The real mistake Putin made, the ones buying are the ones with the power, basically, the EU countries were buying the fossil fuels from Russia, Putin thought the EU countries had no choice but to continue to buy from them, that's where the major underestimating comes from, and the end result is that the EU and much of the world are now actively going out of their way to secure energy from other sources and to generate a lot more internally, the real losers here are fossil producing nations whereas the real winners are the ones that produce very little of it.

Putin has done more for clean energy over the last 15 or so months than Greenpeace could ever have done, and all it took was a threat to energy security to do it.

Another thing some should remember, especially on western countries, their pace of change or adapting might seem slow at times to things, but it really does depend on urgency, the more urgent something is, the quicker the pace they'll act on it, basically as we saw with Covid and the war in Ukraine.

Another factor in all this, the tough response from the west has likely given China pause on what it wants with Taiwan, because make no mistake, the west would likely have a much tougher response on Taiwan then it's doing on Ukraine, simply because of the tech sector.

So this was partly a message to China to tell them, we're not as soft as you like to think we are, Putin clearly fell for that trap and is paying the price for it now, with basically being squeezed from the west and being taken advantage off by the east, which is the last thing Putin wanted.

As for LNG, that's only a short term thing to fill the void, unless the produces of that find ways to lower the price a lot, it's very likely that European countries will look for cheaper alternatives, whether that be from other markets or renewable energy, LNG was always competing on price and it's at a major disadvantage on that, which is why if the likes of the US wants to continue to benefit from that, they are going to need to find ways to lower the cost a lot as consumers are very sensitive to these things and will shift towards cheaper options on the world market, so that was always only a short term benefit for the likes of the US, to fill the void, probably for less than 5 years as a lot of the other things come online.

Also, was LNG being used that much? From what some of the media were saying, ships were floating around the sea of Europe, not docking because the energy wasn't needed because of the mild winter and because of the cuts EU countries made, that and the gas tanks were filled up higher than expected that they ended up buying more energy than needed, good in a way as it put less pressure on the economy and also makes sure that by next winter, the gas tanks are filled to the brim, but it could also be an early indicator that LNG is less important than realised and likely to get less so as the years go by, unless the price of it becomes a lot cheaper.

How WRONG your premise is. In “Retrospect” Europe had a fantastic energy policy that enriched it immensely and then was dropped like a bad habit through on-a-dime when desired.

One could better say that, in “retrospect” the EU energy plan was ingenious.

People had 15 degrees in the winter.
I paid 1100 Euro per mounth in energy prices.
And this is sweden.we shut down halv of the nuclear power plants and suffering

Long term damage to Russia's economy isn't a "glorious bonus". Once Putin steps down, has a successful coup, gets assassinated (etc) the Russian people will spend generations paying for his crimes. There's going to be untold suffering of the Russian people and there's no glory in that.

It is a swelteringly hot summer in Europe so that is a serious concern

Lol the only thing missing in this video is you going “neener-neener”

As a US citizen, we might talk a lot of crap about Europe (and vice versa) but we always had your back. I only hope you all would do the same.

Kind of poetic that Germany is sharing its resources to help all of Europe instead of trying to take all of Europes resources specifically when it when be temporarily more beneficial for them not to share and help their own

Despite so-called experts predictions for doom, The West is flexible enough to find alternatives that work. Blackmail doesn't work when allies find that predictions it will take years to build new LNG terminals and ports is just BS' It was done in less than a year.