Shocking Revelation: Why BTC, ETH & XRP Won’t Fall and will Rise instead – HVFmethod vs Peter Brandt

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#trading #crypto #ethereum

Welcome it’s the crypto sniper thank you for checking in and being a fan throughout this year with us please smash the like button and don’t forget to subscribe I’m going to cover in this video that should be extremely entertaining entertaining we’ve got energy we’ve got things to tell you

We’ve got value add to give you what will that take the form of why you should be hanging tough on the xrp lold period why it’s been hard uh why it’s actually underperformed so far for a while why what’s likely to transpire before it actually takes you onwards and

Upwards to the targets that we are expecting um also I’m going to talk about the most followed man on technical analysis on X formerly known as Twitter uh and how we have a contrary opinion both for Bitcoin and ethereum and why it’s a clash of methodologies what is

Going to give the better uh outcome you get to decide on something that will happen in the future watch what he says watch what we say and then go and measure us and if we turn out to be inaccurate remember everything is on balance of probabilities um then we will

Tip our hat to his correctness um so with that said it’s going to be a great show don’t forget you’re going to enjoy this book a call remember to be part of our community in that very first link below uh watch first and see whether you

Like the cut of a if you’re new uh in terms of the charting that we’re going to do so with that said let’s go straight to those charts bang and with a clap Aladdin appeared and we see before us the xrp US doll um I’m using stamp because because

Why because why because it has a lot of history and it has an important little piece of history that I will be discussing in the fractals of uh pattern uh lexicons you can see that we have even in 2013 the existence of xrp on bitstamp where in many instances it was not not

Available on other exchanges all those exchanges did not even exist so a simple first bases uh commonality that you will notice in terms of this is a this is a log scaled chart log scaled chart go look at the nut over there at the bottom you’re looking at one nut right here

Have a look at another one uh over here there you go there’s your nut uh and it says logarithmic or you can just see the L showing it why because things move fast and really far in short times in crypto and when you’re looking at big time frames where you have previous

Prices that are significantly significantly pre Parabola lower you need to have some sense of proportionality that’s introduced by uh essentially looking at something instead of in the absolute number sense more in a log scale which talks about percentage base of move rather than the uh absolute valuation so let’s go straight to this

So the simplest amongst you might indeed actually have seen that and we have done similar before on our chats on xrp by the way status status status all the status tokens will win out it’s a totally captured realm this doesn’t mean I approve all like of our forthcoming uh

Railways for Central Bank digital currencies or anything this is a dispassionate technical assessment of something that may go up not an approval of project or a moral stance or in any other way in short this is macr technical analysis just on whatever the underlying is without judgment on its

Fundamentals or its role that it’ll play in future Society okay so most of you will be able to see yep there was pretty much something that went on in there now I’m going to just break this whole pattern structure a little bit further down and give you a little bit more uh

Of an idea it’s quite common that people that have a closer look get to see a little bit more that’s the difference between snipers and regular Shooters regular Shooters have a 50 round magazine and they like to empty it and then reload and do it again uh snipers

Actually see every single bullet as preservational and to be cherished and they not only want to shoot the bullseye they want to shoot the cross that’s in the middle of the bullseye and they take extra time they focus on Trigger action they breathe deep and they get their heart rate they

Probably try pull that trigger in between heartbeats so that even the slight twitch of pulse will not see a slight left or right movement in the Trigger action that could marginally uh vary the projectiles trajectory towards its point so in short they don’t even want to shoot the bullseye they want to

Shoot the middle of the bullseye even when they can’t see it they visualize it that’s sniping okay so let’s try see uh a little bit more of this detail so as a launch project fairly early in its history uh this was now 2013 going into 2014 we call it Church steeple kind of

Very volatile of course it gets the surge of the hypium in the hopium and everything and then it gets a bit of a reality check flush out you got a secondary uh pushup that was a little bit less violent uh on the upside and also a little bit less violent on the

Downside that then gives you um two very distinct impulses now what tends to happen is many people miss the third impulse because they can often be low slung they can be heavy and very grindy a lot of the volatility has dissipated so it’s gone wild for a while up and

Down up and down calming calming calming so the subtleties get more hard to spot in what happen but if you go back to the end of 2015 we’ll choose the blue color now and draw this for you you will note that you did get a very smaller Channel which had a slight

Upside grind on it like that squeezy squeezy uh a little bit of a channel slightly up generally with marginally higher highs across the top and marginally higher lows I’m going to put a splitter on that because that’s what we do but that’s more just for uh

Technical sakes and da da da da da da out you go and that is your kind of structure and you based out on your low to there are a couple of touches there not too many but one or two before you went yeah so that is what happened

During the back end of 15 all through 16 that took an entire year and actually then went into 17 what happened in 17 well you’ll see actually there was a nasty old flush out now remember early doors not so much volume not so much liquidity uh easy to trigger

Up new people with leverage doing dumb things um putting extra zeros and selling all sorts of things can go on bad data on Old exchanges during early lightly traded markets there’s lots that can be said but generally within that you tend to still get in markets flush

Outs in One Direction and this is part of what we teach you in our course material uh flush outs in One Direction before moving strongly in the other uh and that’s uh very very common so I’m going to draw this one in a slightly thinner box but I want to

Highlight the flush out there now that low actually wasn’t very far off one of the lowest periods at all and probably slightly ran these lows over here very very close to if not so it was quite an interesting real real heavy hits so not only did you take the backend months of

15 all of 16 and then the early first quarter of 17 with a flush out to the downside it was a real walk of the desert only to get a slap in the face before eventually you got the good news and you got your super

Super run and that came in the form of this which I’ll go back up to Fat K draw who loves a fat K to draw I did as a kid anyway uh and there you go run run run run run run run you did windup structure we’ll highlight that in a minute and

Further Run next stage and this was an unbelievable move uh in fact you were around 0.06s levels let’s just highlight that 06 so that is it’s not even six it’s hundreds of a scent it’s 6,000 of a a cent it’s the third decimal place actually I’m wrong it’s units tens and

Hundreds it is 6 hundreds of a cent that’s not taking the low that you got pushed out on into there that would have probably got you very close to 0.0 3 is almost half that and in the end you ended up through $3 I believe on that

Very highest moment um so you can do the math on uh that yourself but it is a very significant move also once you started the pump mental you did get one pause period and during that pause period you got a squeeze squeeze squeeze and you got continuation one of our

Favorite structures squeeze of the volatility and uh continuation why because you can set tight stops you can jump back in in and you can get a real surge move with lowrisk super tight expansive reward and often you get Geometry for that and in hvf method we actually have structure that

Allows you to have over performance closing methodology so once you made your target you can close half and you can leave some on for a little bit higher up so we’ll be talking about that other technical analysts very well followed globally on Twitter and his opinion on the crypto markets in a short

Bit and why we differ uh and that’s okay it doesn’t make him a bad guy uh it doesn’t make us a good guy it doesn’t make us a bad guy or him a good guy it’s just two different opinions in the market people talking about markets and having different opinions and different

Approaches and methodologies and we’ll look a little bit at that methodology that he’s applied and our criticisms of the methodology not the man remember it’s about a methodology and the man scientists do robust work on other people’s uh scientific work and they test the science they don’t attack the

Individual um so let’s get on with it this is our uh our take on how xrp performed in its run-ups from its listing appearance on bitstamp around the 13s mid 2013 through to its eventual 2017 end of 17 border cusp of beginning of 18 uh High which we didn’t give you a

Full final number but we can confirm it in the end on stamp you got a intra period High by the way we on the weekly chart to get all this data so the week high uh intraday was $3 31.7 $3 so if you’re looking at the H up

Top there you can see it $3 31.7 almost $332 almost all three threes anyway uh let’s not get stupid uh let’s get straight into what uh the second part of this so what I’m actually saying to you is you get factorization in essence and it’s my assessment that

Um you are already in a state where some of that is uh happening again in other words you get very close to similar don’t expect identical twins a this is a far bigger cycle this one has breached two cycles because xrp as a as a result of the uh

Legal action and many other things did not give have a new bull high in the last harving cycle uh in fact it only made in and around 1.9 just got into the 1.9 so very clear first impulse again and uh very clear lows into here so here is essentially what we’re

Drawing for you uh this whole item I can extend that all the way down to encapsulate the bull market but we’re just drawing over other drawings and I don’t want to mess it up so clear to impulses what happened last time when we got a clear to impulses well you went

Kind of dull you walked to Desert from the last few months of 20 5 go all the way through 2016 and actually you got a flush out in 17 so everyone who is leveraged bye-bye you’re out liquidated thank you and then it pumped and did with those that remained in the real

Deal job that got you the macro in short the green boxes are the part you want the gray secondary setup which was the squeezy uh which set up a next green box is also uh a point of Interest so everything that’s green and gray is great everything else is set up and

Orange is The Flash out danger beware yellow light you’re about to jump a yellow light and smash into someone T-Bone another car don’t do it okay so here comes the blues let’s go with the blues and you will note if you have a look there is uh there’s been a bit of

Basing period so I’m not going to draw this one exactly the same but I’m going to highlight to you the weak upside grind channel the roof of that same grind Channel there was a degree of basing out which I’ll do on the same uh thickness as I’ll split a line here like

That and there’s your basing uh there on what looks very similar so it’s a frustrating period it’s a walk the desert period marginally higher highs pumps that part Ur and then fizzle back down it’s a spike and fizzle uh typical uh token in actual fact long periods of

Slowly dripping back giving up dominance long periods little bit of a Bop and then a d back to just dribling out until the big one occurs of course dominance also spiked immensely here during this green period and we expecting the same so if this is a larger version of an

Earlier fractal which in itself wasn’t short don’t forget it started from the listing in 13 and your pump mentals happened round about end of quarter 1 17 there’s your fouryear cycle we talk about the fouryear harving cycle how it’s dovetailed with a four-year quantitive easing cycle a four-year

Electioneering uh cycle so one president that breaks the economy then signs out and leaves the mess for the next guy all of these multiple uh cycles of four uh as being super super interesting but since 18 224 you’re on about a six year it’s about 50% bigger 13 13 I would say

Is the start point in the break is uh 17 there so that’s about a fouryear we’re on uh 18 being the high but actually the high one but actually it all started in 17 uh when it broke so you 17 through to 24 you’re already on about 7 years so

This is going to be probably um the eighth year it goes in my opinion so what are we expecting we are expecting something similar why because they don’t want you to make the money they’re going to flush you out before something is about to move very strongly in a

Direction it’s absolutely quite common and we talk about this in our materials about the look one way go the other way candle the break and Fain back in Candle all of these things that get everybody super excited get them all set up and then the opposite happens first you and

This could be on geopolitical news a bit of fud a bit of everything it’s ideal and then something actually takes you down and then in the worst possible environment it actually sounds like it’s running counterintuitively so what comes next here is our scenario for you some

Form at some point maybe not too far away although I think it can go up a little bit first then may be whoops wrong color let’s go back and pick up our orange so we’re doing this colorcoded for you in the colors of the rainbow because genderism is so awesome

And we want all the genders to be included in this one um God knows what color and orange is um but then again maybe it’s just orange I don’t know orange man bad by the way oh yeah anyway I’m getting distracted sorry uh so there you go flush out to the downside

Something like that I wouldn’t expect with the more mature token and the higher level of liquidity that you typically get that you would run this Wick is Extreme and as I mentioned thin volume uh folks with leverage uh not knowing what they were doing not enough

Bid stack not enough bots in the system putting in bids and creating the liquidity all of that flush you out that big so in terms of percentage terms I wouldn’t expect the flush out to be nearly as big remember these aren’t identical twins already I’m telling you

This is about 50 possibly twice the size twice the size what does twice the size mean sidebar before we go back to our flash out narrative twice the size typically means twice the move when it comes the scale is larger in every level the scale is larger in every level so

We’re talking about giantism you know big head big feet he’s probably got a big you know what who knows anything any other part of his Anatomy you your choice anyway um dip out wash out flush out what comes after that then squeezy squeezy japanesey into into into into

Big green big green big green comes next very promptly usually after a very small low volatility period you can barely see it there it’s caught up in between the orange and the green triangle I’ve actually overlap them we go fat uh and we have told you roughly where the

Targets are we want to give value to the free views here in crypto uh to help you build wealth in these interesting and desperate times uh something like that and then maybe a little bit of squeezy squeezy now we expect over performance so the 16.7 and whatevers is our Target

But we expect to scream up possibly higher remember this is log scale that’s already past $24 uh I’m not saying that the over performance will do that we have confidence in our targets we’ll take 50% off there we’ll over performance manage using hvf method tools for doing that that you too can

Learn by clicking that first link below and joining us and have and watch us do it if this particular trade does come as we have said it may um and you can be part and parcel of seeing it live and be updated uh every single day uh we would

Certainly be talking about about it many times during the day um when this transpires assuming it does transpire everything on on balance of probabilities as a potential outcome so squeezy squeezy that is essentially a fractal of some future larger version of itself that is the expectation for those

Of you so just to give those that are thinking damn you know I mean he said xrp some time ago and here I am and A’s been overperforming well aah under perform for a long period now it’s gone over performing I could have been that

It could have been this this is all the dog with a bone seeing his own reflection and letting go of the bone to grab the other one you end up with nothing A Cat on a Hot Tin Roof you’re jumping around here here and there uh

You always want to be on the one that’s running you’re chasing fomo pumps so the point of this is you could in fact let’s use black oh emo uh so dark and ominous you could in fact be in the equivalent of you are currently here right right

Now now you would probably look at that then and say it’s not safe to leave town you are here you know those Maps you know those Maps I know you do you are here uh and that would be my uh draw uh right now so let’s do little arrows

Those don’t like those big heads they get too big he’s got too big a head don’t get bigheaded okay so that’s overall where I think we could be and you could get a little bit of upside I’m actually exping a bit of Santa action but some point in January we could get

That potential flush out uh and a little bit more underperformance that everybody goes oh why am I in this token I should be in uh pental you know block token or uh pental avax or pental whatever the case may be don’t forget we’ve given you

Uh a 30 times uh multiple plus plus in fact it was a little bit higher when we were lower down we are tiny bit higher than we were when it was 47 and 49 it’s now 61 cents but as I say you could still get a dip so what does that mean

Limit orders below the price action could be rewarded on a dip and it’s going to be terrible news you should put them on an automate them and leave them on and don’t let it be with leverage let it ideally be with investment because the spike could get extreme um and then

You could find yourself um getting liquidated so small limit orders non-leveraged on the downside could possibly not a guarantee you don’t always get every single aspect but the main game are the green boxes a continuation pattern of some sort potentially over the way that will take some time don’t forget this continuation

We’re looking on a weekly chart guys everything looks small but is actually fairly sizable um you had a localized High there until that point I’m going to take this line off but if you have a look at that that was somewhere uh around about the end of quarter 1 maybe

Midway quarter two and you only really broke out of it the end of the year so that continuation pattern took 2third of a year it’s safe to say uh to play out um so you know during that period you go I think it’s all done I think it’s all

Done I think it’s all done oh we missed it calling the top lots of other people D you over you got your best days listen you aren’t going to be complaining on that first green box it’s probably going to be the biggest in percentage terms move but you might be leaving leaving

Quite a bit on the table so remember it’s maximizing your gains and then getting out and selling how many of you have round tripped on crypto entirely too many the game is actually knowing when to get out over Performance Tools will allow you to know we’re done here

The entire position is closed and you will your high water mark you will still be between 80 and 95% of your high water mark which is the height out most people go all the way down if they get 40% of their highest point in equity before they close they’ve done well some of

Them go all the way down and end up losing money they go to Z 0 and minus 10 and they go for a beautiful old round trip where money washes in and washes as fast back out in fact they inverse adding on the way up is they get more

Confident because of the pumpamentals and more people will come out and say $100 Ripple uh $1,000 Ripple and you’ve never had such bullishness and you’re punch drunk with the joys of spring thinking it will never end uh and we only tend to see what we currently see

In front of us instead of realizing there’s always a time to hit the exit and it’s usually best time to leave the party while everyone else is still partying you miss the you miss the the breath lier test you miss the fight you miss everything you know what keep it

Tidy you’ve had a good time you’re still sober go on home uh and let everybody else get into the the Twilight hours where things get a little bit weird Okay so there you go that’s a picture for you on the xrp it’s uh the earlier fractal compared to a future larger self option

With a couple of warnings a possibility to use bu uh limit orders Etc to get in on any flush out the possibility that a flush out might come we always take pictures and save them so let’s do that and we grab it we save it uh and now we

Have it as our potential forecast remember it’s on balance of probabilities we can always be wrong in actual fact um this is a scenario cost so it’s a particular scenario cost of many you may uh you may have multiple continuation patterns the gray bits on

The way up uh more than just one this is a bigger pattern it’s likely to express itself uh in a larger way things that were small here could be bigger there etc etc so this is a diagram and it’s speculative on balance of probabilities one particular possibility that so far

Is tramlining very close to the original setup that gave it the original base remember as debt markets collapse and that is the death of money and you have a contraction of the Dark Star Jupiter uh that was our old Financial system the wealthy aren’t going to let all that

Money go away and then numbers go down they need to already be in situe which many of them already are in the new thing that will be reinflated up so that we can still have the multiple quadrillion economy that we have and that they are still super rich and super

Powerful uh and continue to buy influence all over the world okay so that’s that what about um this uh gentleman that is in technical analysis and he’s sharing his opinions on bitcoin and ethereum so we will cover next Point number one over xrp you could be closer than you think

Um so this could all transpire by the end of quarter 1 uh and maybe maybe sooner but remember this is a bigger pattern generally so it’ll drag out a little bit longer uh I would say it’s going to be probably almost double the length um in terms of everything but

Possibly 75% 50 don’t you know this is an idea uh that we’re giving here now we’re going to go to part two of this video and say why are we um taking on someone’s opinion and criticizing the opinion not the man and holding an alternative view so this is the

Gentleman involved uh P brunt crypto news he says Bitcoin has developed a triple price RSI Divergence so first let’s try understand what he’s saying so Divergence is a very popular it’s a very popular technical analysis tool and in my opinion and assessment this is a overly utilized Mis

Ized uh feature of traditional technical analysis generally so why do you say that well what is an RSI an RSI basically is a Formula it’s a math formula that is applied on price data so in other words it’s a manipulated version of the price chart itself however it has a certain rate of

Change element so you comparing for example the fact that this went up kind of quick in the beginning each ETF ETF Black Rock ETF sharp move up and has since moved up at a slower rate so you’re getting what we would sometimes refer to as marginally higher highs

Although we would highlight that that is not so marginal and has actually stretched in height over the previous one which is actually not so bearish and points to another period of quite some decent acceleration and then a catchment area at a key level he’s got 42055 I think he’s just highlighting I think

That’s just the current price on his dotted we’ve shown you that the 42.5 is in fact the Legacy neckline that was the big 69k head and shoulders that we haven’t seen him draw he loves Head and Shoulders but we haven’t seen him draw um he may have done I’m not a

Regular follower I just had this one pop up in my feed and I think it’s interesting um and as a result you will progress Decay for a while that means turn around respect the the key level of significance before we suspect continuation what is his insinuation that he hasn’t said explicitly but he’s

Inferring in my best understanding is that because there’s a Divergence price will eventually be pulled down to comply with the RSI but hold on the RSI is a shadow of the human being the RSI is function of the price data who is the dog and who is The

Tail the price is the dog let me just tell you price is the dog the heart the muscles the dog is in the price the tail is what gets wagged by the brain the heart the nervous system uh by the dog it’s the price data the price data is

What determines Direction and this which is a lagging that means delayed and also mathematical which is nonpredictive Formula that people have decided has been useful as a proxy for price so they’re actually substituting the real indicator of price with a a kind of formula lagging formula that

Says the rate that you’re going up here which is quite clear to see is not to the same degree fast as the rate you went up in the original area which of course was exceedingly fast on the base of a major surge of fundamental news a very low volatility period and quite

Dull performance that preceded it which could have even been we thought was a possibility a Head and Shoulder so what’s actually happening is because I accelerate in my Porsche Turbo the fastest when I have it in first gear and I’m flooring it to the red line and

Switching for second it means I’m going to slow down because the acceleration between second and 30d is slower no I’m going to go through all the gears and the rate of climb may drop but I will be going ever faster as I hammer it down the auto so acceleration is not speed

It’s a first derivative of speed what what that actually says is you’re going up less fast than you were at one stage going up and you were close to Peak acceleration there well it doesn’t matter as long as you keep going this line RSI can go ever slower ever slower

It becomes more sensitized when you’ve just had a very fast uptick as well so failure to maintain that exact degree of acceleration does not translate into you’re breaking and you’re slowing down it just means you’re not going up at the same rate as you were previously and the the automatic assumption that not

Accelerating at the same rate actually means you’re going to stop or turn around um is a false de dichotomy um and this is the failure of lagging mathematical indicators applied as if they are the dominant force on the price itself the price data determines the RSI

Along with the math formula the rate of change of the price data may be reflected in the RSI it has no Direction influence on what the future price data will be it is just maass okay maass is not predictive sorry so we do not transfer and this is why we are

Indicator free apart from real primary data and volatility measures so Binger bands have volatility measures volume has additional new data that is predictive and leads instead of lags for major moves so when you start seeing there’s a bid stack and a offer stack with heavy offers and bids for a long

Long time and then you start to see volume at the same price building in other words the bids are clearing out the offer stack at a certain price level bouncing around not really going up much coming up and down but thinning the upper stack you get a major histogram

And volume in the next day you’ve thinned the offer stack and the M the market is having to now Chase up as a precursor to that as you’ve thinned the stack and there’s been a power of buying that’s at the same level people have continued to distribute and say oh

There’s still more demand I’m unloading a line of stock I’m unloading a line of this oh they’re taking it all they’re taking it all let let’s get let’s get rid of the whole position boom there’s news they were insiders they knew about it big move something like that okay so

That’s our criticism on indicator-based analysis we do not assess that Bitcoin is about to go uh strongly the ma the next major move is to be down we uh have the opinion that Bitcoin is actually ging its loins for another move to the upside we will also deal with this uh

Ethereum but let’s deal with Bitcoin first so here we go we’re going over to bitcoin so what happened with Bitcoin well uh long story short in terms of the the macro let’s just go up to the weekly I’ve said this many times before you might be viewing

Us for the first time so we’re going to leave uh this to be pretty fast and blunt um you can watch other videos where we’ve covered this repeatedly but essentially The Narrative of Bitcoin is the bookmarked Head and Shoulders that exist over here the flag small right shoulder

And the 42 and2 Zone that essentially is roughly there that captures the two shoulders and where we are now so we called for this on the inverted Head and Shoulder which is the other book end there’s your two armpits we give them names armpit one and two that proves

Your shouldering you shrink wrap the head we are the only people that talk like this on head and shoulders we’ve created the theory on the complexity of head and shoulders in that that was your triggering event break you would have been flushed into the red on a hammer my

Apologies uh a flag rally a bare flag rally that also performed to Target all the way down that head and shoulders gave you 16.2 perfectly the low I’ll put my drawings on later I just don’t want the chart to be over cluttered in this purpose this is the other bookended Head

And Shoulder that was an inverted Head and Shoulder shoulder it threw many people off because they don’t understand complex heads that is shoulder one that was a very spiky shoulder two with a big hammer rejection there and that was your head structure over here that was that

So this target was 40.5 up top here and we felt the key level that is the neckline of the Performing Head and Shoulder would you would be part of your over performance to the 40.5 so when you got the 40.5 Target you said we can close 50% but I think you can over

Performance manage and in fact you could just put a second closure on 25 half the remaining position at 42 A2 because we think you’re going to get by and run that that’s exactly what’s happened and this is the first red candle there’s a red candle you are stalling for the

First period since you began the ETF news break one 2 3 4 5 that is a dogee but it counts as six 7 seven eight weeks in a row up first negative week that’s put the pigeons scared the pigeons all up and now they’re calling RSI Divergence on mathematical formula

Because you’re not going up at the same rate you can see quite clearly that the rate of ascent here is exceedingly brisk dra it properly for you and any failure to go up at the same rate of acceleration will show up as a RSI Divergence even though you are

Continuing to go up and that is you’re now in third changing to Fourth you’re now in fourth gear changing to Fifth and largely your foot’s more on the accelerator than it’s on the brake and you’re maxing out an auto Bond now in eighth gear or seventh gear depending

What they are nowadays um and that does not mean because your acceleration is down your your on previously that your speed is down your acceleration is still positive until eventually it reads North and you meet your top end and you’re belting it along on on the motorway um

Okay so that is the two head and shoulders the bookended of the bear 69k was Apex HIgh 15 and A2 was Apex low they were both the peaks of the heads the Peaks and troughs of course of the heads in what was um a bull head uh end

Of bull with a peak and a downside Head and Shoulders to the end of bear with a trough and a upside Head and Shoulders you did however turn rather low rather deep and we’re running late to make that Target which started us to start feel concerned that you would have patent

Failure here and uh then suddenly the it all came to the rescue and actually made it on time so not only do our methodology give you targets with patterns this is the difference between the two strategies someone here is looking at Price data manipulated which means it’s not the original price data

Anymore you’re changing it it’s like your body and your cells and now you’re doing DNA modification with some form of uh who knows I wonder anyway let’s leave that one I’m getting a bit uh little bit sidebar there but why not deal with the original uh information and why not look

At patterns that have probabilities or possibilities in some instances probabilities usually means uh reasonably High uh but patterns possibilities can become probabilities of Performing to a certain level with a Target and we actually get time frames for when we think that pattern is no longer on schedule

And that’s what started to happen over here it took a long long time to get go of 20.5 but what was actually happening is we had a very strong dollar period there then suddenly the dollar gave up on its strength started to weaken plus the fundamental news switched and next

Thing youu Z Target made in time all at the last minute so it was a last minute show for Bitcoin our time frame was up on the 16 17 of December and it made it in the first week of December usually our uh we we perform well in time in

Terms of the geometry that is being created so that is the history of Bitcoin on the macro time frame and in short you are in our opinion in a recovery Bull with an inverted Head and Shoulder that has performed already so with that known and understood the bias is generally to continuation not

Reversal so let’s go back into the lower time frames and analyze where we are now so I’m dropping quite a few time frames we were on the weekly here most of this has been covered on The Daily so we’re going straight to the 4H hourly and now

I’ll just put some of our lines back on there is your 42.5 the Legacy neckline of The Head and Shoulder way back then so you initially had this perfect symmetry above and below as above and below note how you stalled before you ran the 42.5 key levels of significance

Broken worth momentum they need to to to breathe in deep we got to do this we got to do this ging of the loin smash it then exhaustion overrun you got an overrun bit of a grind line there and you let it go and you broke back down so

What you’ll notice is you are actually swanning around like a sine wave and this is quite common from Price behavior in our view around the key level of significance a little bit above a little bit below so what you’re actually getting is $2,000 to the upside so you can draw it over

Here $2,000 to the upside and $22,000 uh to the downside uh as a measuring box so you can go there you go measuring box over performance to the upside broken with momentum to the downside too please note there you go there’s the downside break there’s the upside break follow

Through with quite some volatility so this was the final blowoff as you made our Target you can see on bit stamp it was 4649 so a little bit above 40 and A2 different platforms different uh numbers slightly but the variance very very small and very low and here is your

Square to the downside also by a similar $2,000 odd dollar so from 42 A2 you traded around about 4,100 4500 range uh and then from the 42 A2 you went to about 44.5 44.8 so between two Grand at the extremity maybe going knocking on the

Door of 2 and a half so what’s happened since the volatility has died down What’s happen since is the volatility has died down on bitcoin you had another test so let’s cover this that’s one framing that we’re giving you the sine wave framing the respect to the key

Level of significance same amount above same amount below most people look at support and resistance and they go here’s the most important line and they I’m not saying they’re not important the support and resistance in fact we’re going to talk about support report but they don’t see the significant level

Through the price behavior that is equidistance to the top to the bottom and that is uh something that is missed uh on the overemphasis on support and resistance key levels that are also significant within the price behavior and it’s hard for people to understand those uh and they tend not to join so

Couple of other framings I’m going to give you over here you’ll see there was a sort of halfway mark support that occurred on the side there you see it over there so that’s kind of halfway between the extreme High and the 42 and A2 you can see there it’s roughly

Halfway um it’s kind of a a partial support there and when you extend that line you can see it was a neckline for the m to the downside that’s the m to the downside it’s not a perfect double top um you got a bit of a blowoff wick marginally higher high which is

Generally bearish you went sideways there’s the squeeze and then you spill bu there’s your m to the downside and now you have a w essentially draw to the potential upside over here so what you’re getting is you start to creep new significant levels as well as continuing to respect

The existing one what you’ll notice on the existing one there’s the 42.5 let me just fatten it up here we are losing the volatility that’s how you get to go back up again more often than not when the volatility low is most instances it is generally bullish of course you can get

A volatility squeeze and sell off this was after you making new highs and just run targets of a major inverted head and shoulder pattern so you’ve got to you get those exceptions key break down but generally when the volatility over bigger time is reducing you’re getting better uh likelihoods for bullish

Behavior so over here you will see 42.5 you traded down to around around the 417 so you’re about $800 to the downside and then plus $800 you’re going to be about 43.2 43.3 you see it there there’s your key level in the middle and there’s there’s your little bit above little bit

Below so you actually having a smaller sine wave remember the sine wave I drew starting to form here little bit above a little bit below this is again respecting potentially and then get getting Tighter and lower volatility respecting the key level of significance which was the neckline of the original bear with the

Peak 69k head that gave you all the way down to the downside so the lowering of volatility is a positive generally for Bitcoin the pullback on a strong move is good so we kind of starting to develop and I’m going to talk about soft and hard flaws now so the hard ceiling you

Have yet to run but the soft ceiling is around here so the the lower end of the rectangle is your soft and hard ceiling so you’ve got soft ceiling you can lift the panel out there’s still the air conducts and everything there’s a little bit more space in there and then you get

The concrete on the floor above the concrete on the floor above is here so far that’s hard seiling this part is hard ceiling this is soft seiling you start to run into trouble and you sell off a little bit there you have the same on the floor guess what it involves our

Target who’ have thought about it random you may say so Random no coincidences of course not key levels of significance so you have your soft and hard floors around our Target like that the 4649 so once you start getting into the soft floor you often get rejected back up

Rejected back up rejected back up rejected back up rejected back up you see a hammer here in the middle there rejected back up all just bouncing in and around our Target of 4649 so what we’ve got is there’s your burger patty with your your Locust Patty right there in the middle

There for you brought to you by the world economic Forum there’s your bread uh top and your bread bottom um and a bit of uh you know garnishing in between there to sweeten up the bitter the bitter insect feed um so there you go that is kind of your range uh and you’re

Getting a squeeze now what you’re starting to see is that the lower end is actually not going so low so far now that might change the higher end is bumping up into an area that is soft resistance that we highlighted was soft support for your M remember that over

There well now that’s become a new significant level on a smaller time frame the dominant one is the 42.5 it’s got real history but right now on the lower time frames you start to get subplots smaller subplots so the breakout of 432 you set your alert there

Watch me do it do the same things for you is a positive event that means for the first time since the original highs let’s get rid of the line draw thank you very much give me the alerts please when you start going above the 43.2 or these highs we give a little bit

Of alert just before that’s not too far away the price reaction and now you’re making a new high now you are getting back into the soft and hard ceiling of this beautiful world economic H uh Locust Burger uh at the 42,500 uh burger that you’re getting

Involved in so that starts to point in you want to alert when you break these highs because that will be significant the staging area will be over this should be treated initially as by default as continuation most things are continuation how does it become more threatening as a reversal it becomes

More threatening if you get let’s move this away it becomes more threatening if you got something like a descending triangle and you keep revisiting the floor down here and you look looking for the trapdoor now descending triangles aren’t always downside braks but the failure to make new highs now because

We’ve literally made the same high here already it’s more like a ledge with this new smaller subplot key level that we’ve already highlighted than a descending triangle so it’s already for me moving away from that but let’s say we got a really nasty selloff Wick and it came

Down hard and then you bounced around and you had more hang time here now you noticed you had a fair amount of Hang Time here you did a double Bottom by the way on a smaller time frame right here another W bottom you see you get a subplot neckline even here boom roughly

The same distance as the other one you see that there’s your other one roughly the same distance from your key level you get that you see should probably use another color uh switch it back to transgender pink there’s your double bottom and you can see you got supported

There there and you dovetailed around it and then you eventually gave up the goats and then you got supported here so that becomes a little bit of a squeezing range just like this because you were resisted a couple of times here and here as well as there

So now you’re getting a little bit of a squeezing range and you are respecting and bouncing look at that hammer there quite clearly so that is the breakdown technically using Candlestick analysis no indicators of mathematical formula however you can use volume we’ll show you how it works now what would I expect

To see if this was going to break down I’m assuming from what I’ve understood from the tweet that uh Peter brunt one of the most followed technical analysts on Twitter how many followers does he have probably worth following the MS can’t be uh wrong I follow him uh too

You know uh we’ll have a look he’s got 372,000 views on this CH that means there’s roughly 373,000 people that actually have considered the contemplation that is going down I’m trying to save some of them I don’t have that I won’t have that number of views

For all the T in China well done to him by the way for being popular well-liked and uh attaining that so he’s successful in other ways too uh but we differ we differ and we’re trying to try save some of those views uh from maybe being wrong

Because we think hold on a minute we’re not sure we agree remember disagreement at a technical level is not a personal slight on things we are wrong and right on many uh things and he will be right in many occasions where we see the market differently and will be wrong um

But our methodology I feel is more robust uh why because it’s based on real fresh separate reasons not based on price data uh integrated reasons so fixed range profile we take from the candle that runs the pullback low so we want all the data when you first hopped

Onto the ledge the lowest point ledge of this so we are capturing volume by Price people use volume by Price incorrectly you should in my again my assessment why do I say that this is bitstamp by the way I’m also going to do binance because it’s a higher volume um

Exchange and of course you can do the catch all which is all BTC as well which might even be even better um so the key point that uh I’ll be making is when you are likely to break down generally you’re looking for the trap door people are knocking on the

Floorboards looking to hear where’s the trap door we want to fall into the basement yep that’s how it works now the volume tends to show that what we’ve actually found is we found endorsement for a key level of significance that I drew on a small pattern W bottom which

Had a neckline there that had support there that I highlighted there and further highlighted there and further highlighted there you pivoted around it and further support there so we’re actually showing that some of the biggest volume is quite far the way into our world economic Forum Burger I would

Say it’s 40% off what we called our hard floor down there where the first low and the soft floor area uh in the same way again hard ceiling it’s draw it in and soft ceiling uh as well so there you go so you’ve actually got quite a reasonable um point and there’s quite

Highly stacked just in and around it up to our 42.5 now I also want to talk about the overall profile is very much in the the the boobs and bellies variety uh I would call this one a bit of a pregnant lady the belly is winning out

But you do actually even though it’s outside the 70% you do actually have a couple of clusters quite high so what tends to happen is they take the most populous and then they work what will give us 70% % of all the activity in and around the point of control it’s called

The point of control so what you get here is you get a box here and guess what it’s pretty much around slightly heavier but pretty much around our world economic Forum uh Locust burger patty that’s your 70% however these guys by size are actually larger than many of

The ones that have been included but because they’re a different part of the anatomy and price range they’re falling into the boobs instead of belly range and you uh and you’re picking up mostly the sternum and lower sternum before the belly and the pubic bone area there we

Say um of the 70% down here so you’ve got to uh watch out for this and you’ve also got to have a look at it on other exchanges so we found our key level of significance as well supported on volume is this what I would expect it to be I

Would expect if we were going downside and that would also point to say a descending triangle type structure how would I expect the volume by price I would expect something more like that it wouldn’t be perfectly like that there would and it doesn’t have to have the

Most volume on the very low but it would be close to close to that like that and you could have a few you know odd ones it’s not this is diagrammatic remember and you’d be quite thin up top uh we’re not got that but hold on it’s bit stamp

But stamp isn’t necessarily the biggest exchange of them all so let’s get BTC on buying I still think it’s probably the biggest you tell me uh if not and let’s do the exact same thing on binance so when you’re looking at volume data remember it’s only exchange data for

That particular exchange so how has everyone been trading on one of the biggest again there there done okay now you’re seeing much higher participation and we’re getting close to the Highline level of this price Behavior being included in the 70% and it’s and it’s uh literally the second biggest

Histogram the second biggest histogram so were we to get up here and trade around a bit here for a while longer and off and down and around and bounce again here you would start to get the accumulation of this Zone getting higher that red line moves all the way up to

There it then becomes what we call a ceiling tap where’s The Loft not where’s the basement where’s The Loft not where the basement where is the biggest Skirmish taking place where the market is interacting highly big Distributors meeting strong buyers and that is what I think will come next uh with this and

That point of control can move quite far as it would because it would likely move to the number two if we fail to trade at this price point anymore this histogram does not get higher remember or further right let me say it’s a horizontal his let’s get my words correct here so

Overall that is our anticipation in short we disagree with the RSI Pro thesis being put forward we think it’s a weak argument it’s an argument we think it’s a weak argument it’s typical of traditional technical analysis it sells courses it creates all sorts of voodoo that people stop looking

At the primary price and they start looking at Price substitutes and accelerations and rates of change versions of Tri price and lagged versions of price and smooth versions of price except the actual price the price is the primary indicator the volume is a secondary indicator the volatility is

Your third and most useful other indicator anything else that tries to take you away from the primary aspects of price volume and volatility and patterns are your greatest gift there you go guys that’s your focus for success in technical analysis in the world view of the man behind the white glasses he’s saying

That to you and he’s saying everything else is nonproductive it gets you looking at many things people will put three indicators up and say look I’ve got three separate independent reasons why I should belong that is prompts and nudges that you are creating to push yourself to do something that you’re not quite

Sure you should do those are all based on price you can have an RSI a macd a stochastic uh flip you can they created people that sell courses have created all forms and everybody’s wanted to get their name associated with an indicator by now I could have had a hunts

Indicator that did something I just won’t do it if it’s not based on primary data I won’t do it patterns are King the hvf method which does have my name is a pattern a unique pattern which involves volatility volume structure yes and is all drawn on the

Price not on some proxy manipulated by by a mass formula which has no predictive value here me now that is our grand uh criticism so what was said on Earth Bitcoin largely uh looking good for our view and we would longer term expect upside breaks we will be wrong if

The hard floor fails before the ceiling does so if we break through the ceiling the ceiling is defined by the 44 and a half range put your alerts the floor is determined the low in and around here is if we break out of the 40K range so if

We get 39 anything it’s wrong that’s the contest right now are we going to trade that uh or that and we will see in due course how that pans out uh and as ever we could be wrong but I don’t think the methodology would be wrong this is

Always on balance of probabilities it’s a skew of probabilities people that are using wrong methodologies can still be right in the markets for the wrong reasons and people that that are using accurate or worthwhile methodologies can still be wrong for the right reasons so you kind of get us it’s it’s a

Probability game over the long run people that do the right things in technical analysis tend to have better outcomes and are focused on risk reward scenarios not indicators okay let’s get on to ethereum and what was said on ethereum and then we are done with this

Video are you liking it are you learning anything are you liking it are you learning anything if you just learned something or you felt you learned something and you thought it was authentically delivered you hit that like button to help us we say weird things and we get into trouble with the

Algorithm we’re going to try say less weird things but help us help us promote better thinking in technical analysis in the market if you feel that’s what this represented okay so ethereum the case as pronounced here all the while the upper bu boundary of the rising wedge in E continues to provide

Resistance f is a rising wedge not an ascending triangle although Rising wedges can become running wedges that’s what’s being stated this is the chart so do we concur now what is he generally saying most technical analysts think Rising wedges are bearish structures there are two outcomes that we’ve defined that are the traditional

Typical Berry structures one involves a pop out the top which you could argue has already occurred on this chart and then a subsequent breakdown we call that type two the others you don’t even get the pop out the top it stays within the boundaries it falls to the

Low it crawls along and breaks down that’s a type one the the most cleanest and simplest and then we talk about the type three which is actually a melt up out of wedges now people don’t talk about this in traditional technical analysis they don’t like things that

Don’t comply to the expected outcome but in actual fact many wages pop out to the top in in fact here in Bitcoin you certainly had exactly that so here you go here you go let the the draw lines come back in fact this is um uh binance

I’ done all my Jaws on bitstamp there right there is a rising wedge that ran our Target so when we are in expectation of a major Target run and we have a rising wedge it is a squeeze of the volatility without having a a key resistance points you’re making

Marginally higher highs normally bearish without context remember in technical analysis it’s what’s the context we have a Target sitting right here at 40,500 that was roughly there um let me I’m sure I had this drawn there you go um I’ll go back to bitstamp in a minute

Because it’s all drawn on there but there is a rising wedge and it’s quite clear as as an example of a melt up that took out both our 4,680 uh and the 42,500 the expected perform performance of the original inverted Head and Shoulders that had the ultimate trough

Of 15 a half low that was called by the original Head and Shoulders at 69 I don’t see anybody talking about the bookending head and shoulders for the bare Market but that’s us we understand complex Head and Shoulders we wrote the theory for it and you can find it all in

The link below and watch us implement it uh that is why we have a unique framing on uh the crypto markets because we we’ve we only interested in price pattern and the core fundamentals debunking things that do not add value and eliminating and decluttering is the biggest job once you’ve read every book

On every piece of nonsense that exists in technical analysis and that’s why many people say ta doesn’t work because they there’s too much too much mess that doesn’t contribute that needs clearing okay so Rising wages do happen let’s go to that s so one of the statements that

Were made um on the ethereum I I think it’s here is that ethereum is also in a rising wedge and due to go down I’m going to remove the volume for now the histogram volume it’s a bit uh a messy uh chart to start off with let’s just do

This and let’s get to the bigger time frames we go macro to micro generally so one of the things is it’s a rising wedge not a um ascending Triangle Well on the dollar it is a rising wedge on the dollar it is a rising wedge why

That is higher Point than that point so the typical traditional technical analysis framing is that you don’t have an obvious resistance you are creeping through obvious resistance and this was the period that you have popped out that he had referenced so you saw the green

Shading that he had on this and as a result the implication he is suggesting without saying it so he’s being a little bit foxy is that he’s implying things without saying it explicitly in some senses where we have to interpret in terms of what you think he’s saying so

All the while so he’s been be the first post is bearish concern for Bitcoin Divergence that’s what I’m interpreting that to be we’ll give him a like thank you for the The Conversation Piece um and we’ve got a green pop out the top Rising wedge implication from most traditional technical analyst downside

Is is and it’s not an ascending triangle ascending triangles are can be quite bullish they break upside it’s a flat resistance at the top now against usdt his statement is correct it is not an ascending triangle it is a rising wedge however an interesting point and this is

Why what we do of cross analysis is very very uh interesting is uh if you go to let’s go here and get e EU are so let’s say you’re a European right now and we’ll take binance um and draw it and we’ll again remove the volume we don’t need that right now

Declutter the chart a wee bit and we’ll take it to 3 days we want a bit more detail it’s only because he’s chosen to measure it against the dollar in actual fact if we go to the euro which was strong at a period when the the dollar was weak you actually

Have a high here of 1,978 and a high here 1978 remember that number of 1949 78 is actually higher so in actual fact this one just by virtue of the lines you can see we’ve already put through they were very critical 1900 2000 is in fact an ascending triangle up

To that point and you did just have a break pull back and push up and in fact this particular cross pair is bullish for us and it will go up against the dollar two in other words it’s going to be a type three Rising wedge on account

Of the fact that it is one of our primary patterns that we like and we’re good at spotting the patterns we like because we spend most of our time looking for them so we specialize that’s what snipers do they do reconnaissance resting sleeping observing and occasionally very rarely shooting when

The probability is high the head shot is guaranteed and they actually look looking for the specific point through their head that they want to go through so even when the wind comes they actually get the full benefit of it so let’s go let’s go let’s go let’s go

Let’s draw and I’m going to show you um a quick draw tool um that we’ve designed and I’m actually going to draw this that way so it happens quicker and I’m going to change the setting and this is what you do when you do do something really specific you end

Up developing very specific tools for specific draws so let’s get that back out what have I now done so on ethereum against the Euro I’m just going to take the 1870 out I’m also going to put the 2,000 in I’m going to change that to the 2,000 the 2K is a very significant

Number in the same way whoops too many zeros there you go now key levels of significance just failed to make just failed to make touched pull back wound up little squeezy on a a smaller time frame you’ll be able to see that another one of our favorite pattern push through and down

Where did it squeezy at our inim level rest point you see that it broke our inim touched the magical key level of significance pulled all the way back to our funnel entry which is your last moment of Entry just in time settled on that wound up broke higher now making a

Hammer on the 2K after a technical run another key level that’s significant for us it’s not on his chart he’s looking at Rising wedges on the dollar you need to look across the euro is a big currency it’s not the dollar but it’s a big currency the Legacy families they have

Dollars euros and everything and they they are based many of them in Europe um so you can’t be singular of mindset the 70% bull range on this particular platform is high set in the structure bang that’s where it is you’ve got a low one miles away down here you

Your low to is inside your 70% range which is pretty high this is called a high slung pattern we’ve got slung we know it it’s a green light uh we’ve got the rh2 we know it it’s a green light um so you can see how our patterns and the

Status of this is a triggered pattern it triggered down here when you should have been getting long you guessed it where should you have got long 1769 down here this is already an interim one status breakout in the process of getting so I think Ral who’s a fan of

Ethereum is going to prefer our opinion to Peter brunt I don’t know if he will um but it I think he’s bullish and this is going to uh support uh the bullish bias over here in short where do we expect it to be through the Target 3,232 also Theory first structure in a

New trend over performance expected close only a part of your trade um which would be with very light leverage uh and hold and utilize hvf method over Performance Tools discussed in detail in our community and recorded professionally in a learning environment for you to watch and learn so that you

Can then subsequently follow practically while we Implement and watch us discuss it and do it while trading live markets learning is doing learning is doing so not only do you get the video the time to capsulate the theory you get the implementation of that same theory in

Live mon real markets where you can be making um uh gains so here is asserting bearishness we are saying at 32 uh uh 52 which is a resting Point rather than the end of the move you will probably be plus 5 or 10% on the Euro USD in dollars

So that will be a further 5 or 10% in the dollar terms this structure is good it’s well aligned it’s looking promising by the way the next tallest hiso for point of control is very close to this which runs right through our funnel you’ve only marginally got more here and

By different exchanges which we’ve already looked you can do for yourself this is your primary point of control here on the pattern beautifully aligned with our funnel so you can find out more about how we do this first link below Christmas spoil yourself build wealth invest in learning growing in a

Community of like-minded um with real method real method not indicator based um okay so that’s ethereum the bullishness so let’s look at the lower time frame of the call that appears to be a slightly a bearish nature so I’m going to say goodbye to our structure this is looking to me very much

Like a falling wedge that has broken and that is DV tailing and playing with and respecting the 2K level that it ran look at that clear Head and Shoulder there by by the way we call those mono you can find out why they’re the smallest and

First with a 2180 and a real Throwdown where did you kiss and stop the 2K round number you had a rally you’re now in a bit of Dow Theory however you had the volatility squeeze this is not normal Dow Theory because you made a lower low

After a lower high but you are in a pattern structure that says this is pullback rather than big time frame reversal you popped out return move huge rejection there on the hammer and now you are getting back Above This plus an interplay on your 2K look at that little

Flag over there absolutely beautiful in running the 2K to the upside so here’s bearish etherum here’s bearish Bitcoin he’s noted that they’re correlated we are bullish both so in short in due course I would expect to take out that high not too far off he may be expecting

To take out these lows so again the alerts for where you be wrong we can always be wrong that’s the nature of markets uh you can be wrong events can suddenly pop up I have an alert now here that says we have gone uh out the bottom of

That uh falling wedge it didn’t hold for you and this are these are alerts that say we’re approaching making a new high which by definition will point to the fact that you are not likely to be bearish you at a bottom and of of course the next structural pattern that many of

You could draw would look like this grab it change the color again you could do volume by Price here that would be an interesting point to take a little rest back and then break on up to the upside so bullish on the ethereum again where did this low

That was your breakout that took you to the 2K and run it we take that candle into uh consideration and amazingly despite taking a very low down in price candle that was a breakout of the 2000 with a flag and further assumption the point of control is still higher up you can also

See not a great deal of price Behavior took place up top here so right now the real air the real 70% of Engagement is across here and the point of control is across here ra basically where I drew the W bottom isn’t that funny we keep drawing

Patterns and the volume keeps showing up and saying this is a key price level where you drew that neckline I mean I didn’t know that guys you can accept that or you cannot I didn’t know that that’s how it would turn out I’m just pointing it out as it pops up what did

We draw for you w bottom two serious very close to each other low points with your primary volume sitting right there smells good to me I think we’ll be up higher in a day or two um and we’ll probably have gone to that point of control and possibly Beyond there’s the

Alerts that say uh broadly you are accurate these are the the alerts that say for the wrong reasons Peter brunt was accurate in my opinion if those are run thank you for watching did you enjoy that was it interesting EB BTC bull hold on on xrp it may not be the first but

When it comes it’ll come big you could be very close this could be by uh before the end of quarter one over and then it could have begun a very very giving phase that comes hard and fast don’t get drunk take your size off at the levels

And areas that we in we engaged have yourself an awesome Christmas thank you for supporting the channel share like hit that link below so that you too can get this quality of updates for the real reasons why markets do what they do on balance of probabilities occasionally of

Course always being wrong in a no certainty game thanks again for watching and catch you again later bye for Now oh