Egypt the ‘big loser’ in Red Sea disruption with transit-fee losses: Analyst

David Des Roches, from the National Defense University in Washington, DC, says a US-led maritime coalition will eventually help stabilise Red Sea shipping despite recent Houthi attacks.

“By having an organised system of naval escorts, commercial carriers will be able to travel the Suez Canal, link up with the coalition, and then sail through the Bab al-Mandeb under international protection,” Des Roches told Al Jazeera.

“I expect it to take some time before a level of confidence is established. Bear in mind, these are unarmed commercial ships that are being attacked with weapons of war in time of peace. That is a war crime. They’re flagged by nations that have no connection with the Gaza conflict at all.

“The big loser here is Egypt. It’s going to lose 30 percent of its hard currency assets from Suez Canal transit fees as long as this is closed,” he noted.

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The Pentagon says more than 20 countries have agreed to participate in a us-led Coalition in the Red Sea to stop Hy attacks the Red Sea is one of the world’s most important shipping routes for oil and gas between Asia and Europe in the South the narrow Babel mandb stra

Between Africa and the Arabian peninsula connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aiden 12% of the World’s Trade and 10% of global oil carried by ships goes through the straight the Su canal connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea it is the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia

15% of the world’s Maritime traffic passes through the Su Canal since November the houthis have targeted vessels near bab and mandb forcing major shipping and oil companies to suspend operations through the Red Sea re-rooted vessels will have to make a longer Journey all the way down the east coast

Of Africa via the southern tip of the continent well David do ro is a professor at the National Defense University and former Pentagon director of Arabian Peninsular Affairs and he’s joining us on Skype from Washington DC very good to have you with us on Al jazer we’ll start with the US saying

That it’s shut down four drones launched by the huies that were headed towards one of its warships are the Us and other members of this newly formed Maritime Force are they going to be fighting houthis in the Red Sea now how worrying is this new

Front well it’s not a new front I mean we’ve seen for U since since the October seventh attacks and then the subsequent war in Gaza uh we’ve seen drones and missiles shot down by us ships by Saudi land forces by Israeli land forces by a British ship and by a French ship so

There’s kind of a multinational effort against uh you know this attempt to disrupt civilian Maritime traffic the only difference is now there’s a formal us Le uh escort Coalition uh that will allow ships to move under military protection and there’s an alternate French L one that will probably do the

Same thing so it’s not really a new thing yeah how multinational is this us-led Maritime task force uh Spain Italy and France have pulled out of it the US’s allies Saudi Arabia Egypt and the United Arab Emirates aren’t joining it what does it mean for its credibility in the

Region well that’s a fair point but um I I you know most my experience is in the Army in in the Army if you’re going to operate in an area you have to have unified command uh otherwise you have people shooting each other at C uh operations are basically U uh ship to

Ship and so you don’t really have to have formal command to escort ships um I think that if you actually track the ships rather than looking at who’s in the Coalition you’ll see that these countries are all performing the same Mission and they’re able to do it relatively seamlessly so uh politically

Perhaps that’s not as effective as the Biden Administration would hop for but in terms of actual events on the ground it it doesn’t really make that much of a difference if you track the ships you’ll see everybody’s doing the same thing and that’s trying to ensure Maritime traffic

Flows In Spite of houy disruption so you don’t think then that this new US formed task force is going to make the situation in the Red Sea any more dangerous no it’s going to make it better I mean right now what you have are ships uh performing different

Mission so one of the ships that shot down a lot of the houthi drones and missiles is actually the USS Mason is actually assigned to counter piracy uh in the Gulf of Aiden um by having an organized uh system of escorts commercial carriers will be able to

Transit the SE Canal link up with the Coalition and then sail through the Babel mandb under International protection Mr D Ro we’ve had a number I think 12 um of some of the world’s biggest shipping companies are no longer longer taking this route British oil giant British Petroleum also isn’t they

Made that decision before the US formed this task force and since it’s been formed none of them have started using the route again yeah that’s right so you know capital is is cowardly um and I think that you know it makes sense to avoid an area where there’s a a threat to see

What happens and see how it takes hold so I would expect it to take you know some time before procedures are established and before there’s a level of confidence I mean bear in mind these are unarmed commercial ships that are being attacked with weapons of war in

Time of peace that is a war crime and they’re they’re of Nations they’re flagged and crewed and owned by Nations that have no connection with the conflict at all so um it’s going to take a while to figure out what the capabilities are um these guys want risk

But the big loser here is Egypt which is going to lose 30% of its hard currency assets from sez can Transit fees as long as this is closed yeah and yet Egypt is not joining the task force and the huies are saying that they are only targeting

Vessels that are in any way linked to Israel what do you make of the Pentagon saying that this japanese-owned chemical tanker which was struck off India’s Coast on Saturday was targeted by a drone fired from Iran that is a huge accusation isn’t it it it’s it’s serious accusation I

Mean all of the drones and missiles fired by the houthis have Iranian origin so um and in the past Iran has tried to operate through its proxies such as the houthis RA in order to basically deflect uh direct attack upon them um but the Indian press is reporting that at least

Two Iranian ships were in close proximity one of them the safes uh is a known Iranian intelligence asset it was actually in the Red Sea for a number of years uh and it was only 47 miles away from the targeted ship ship uh the Iranian uh drones certainly have the

Range to uh attack this ship from there and with onsite guidance provided by the safas and possibly by the other Iranian ship and Aros it is quite possible that they did this and it would certainly be in keeping with their MO if Iran did attack it uh I think they figured that

Because of the distance from Iran it would be an unattributable attack so and and that also keeps in with their past practice for example when they M ships off fuera about 5 years ago all right well we haven’t heard from Iran but it will be interesting to say what they

Have to say to that Pentagon accusation that is David D Ro joining us live from Washington DC great to have you with us thank you thank you