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Li Auto Stock Analysis | A Sleeping Giant (Best EV Growth Stock)



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Hey guys welcome back to the channel Merry Christmas hope everyone’s having a wonderful holiday today we’re going to talk about Lee Auto the chart is very interesting here we’re going to do the TA at the end of the video after we go through the most recent earnings call

Talk about updates and talk about their new model release which is giant minivan which performs exceedingly well Lee Auto it it had a a a strong bull market one of the EV leaders in China here up 300% in the bull market before it started basing again it’s holding that 200

Moving average and we’re going to get to whether that’s a good buying opportunity or not okay first let’s go through some basis we’re trading at $332 the valuation I’m not a big valuation guy but the valuation is great so always a plus to have it if you can

Have it right EPS 1.38 that’s forward pe23 that’s very good for a growth company and this is a hell of a Growth Company guys triple digit growth we’re going to talk about that in a second $33 billion market cap and and not a ton of short interest right this is a company

This is forward EPS so they are going for their first year of profitability in 2023 they have four consecutive quarters of profitability but one of them was Q4 22 so once we get the numbers for Q4 23 um that’s going to come into fruition and they’re going to achieve that that

First year profitability really differentiating them from their competition moving on here again this is an EV company that designs develops manufactures and sells new energ vehicles in China they provide the le1 and Le L series smart electric vehicles They al they also offer sales and after Sales Management Tech development and

Corporate Management Services as well as purchases manufacturing equipment the company offers his products through online and offline channels and they are headquartered in Beijing and look at this growth right up and to the right I mean this is 23 $17 billion in sales from 6 billion last year so a

3×2 % increase from last year and you know we’re not staying here you can see the projections for next year approaching that $30 billion of annual revenue this thing is growing at a tremendous rate you can see earnings growing at a tremendous rate as well and that rate is about 160% year-over-year

In terms of Topline growth right in line with their threeyear average so they’re not slowing down right 160% for 4 years now of Revenue growth year over-year you can see that free cash flow growth is just crazy again valuation is good it’s nice to have it I don’t care for it

Right we can be overvalued and and still really really pumped for a long long time um it’s all in the chart right gross profit margin 21% which is actually excellent considering they’re in the EV space um ebit margins 4% net income again profitable return you know their return numbers the way they manage

Their capital and invest their own Capital all excellent and talk talking about that the balance sheet looks good with only 1.5 billion of debt versus 122 billion in cash excellent cash position on which they are earning extra income in that high interest rate environment not too much institutional ownership yet

Every time we cover these China stocks it’s more of the same maybe an opportunity to get in early let’s move on here to the website now these are the the L line and Le focuses on SUVs right so bigger bigger cars you know Vans and SUVs um electric SUVs there’s the L9 and

They’re kind of a hybrid um interesting technology where they are an electric vehicle but they have this little gas powerered motor that um can charge your battery for you while you’re on the go so some people would argue you know these are hybrid and whatever it may be

But to address that Lee just released the the Lee mega MPV this minivan you’re looking at right here it just it’s launching right now in December um it’s going to ramp up to mass production in the following year and it’s their first full you know full EV car we’re going to

Talk about the Le Mega but the numbers are are crazy for that and you can go learn more about Lee on their website here let’s continue on here few notes from the earnings call in October Lee achieved another new Milestone with over 40,000 monthly deliveries according to the registration data of China

Automotive tech and research Lee L9 maintain its position as the full-size SUV sales Champion during the quarter while the L7 and 8 occupy the first and second spot in the large SUV so again fulls size SUV large SUV they just dominate the electric SUV Market this is

The number one company in the world for that their monthly deliveries are growing and they’re destroying their competition which would be other Chinese and other T makers in general mainly things like Neo xpv byd and now now Tesla with the Cyber truck now I would

Like to talk about Li Mega again this is that that minivan that full electric it can gain up to 500 km of driving range with a 12 minute charge and features an industry-leading silhouette it is its Market reception has exceeded our expectation liga’s extremely large interior space meets the travel needs of

Large Chinese families at the same time it’s Unique body style and silhouette are intended to reach the perfect balance between interior space and energy consumption it is the most aerodynamic MPV in the world with a drag coefficient of 0.215 and people are freaking out about this I mean if you just look at the news again um bullet train of electric minivans super duper fast charging that’s that 12 minute charging wireless charging the wacki Lee mega is one of the most aerodynamic cars of all time

Unique looking to say the least and again this is their first fully electric EV so it kind of has a lot of this hype the similar to the cybertruck hype where it looks weird it’s funny so it’s becoming a meme people love it um it’s wacky and it has all these crazy specs

And and that’s pretty interesting right here is a view of the Interior um you see the big space right there big I think 19in screen has three rows um three rows inside it’s over it’s 15 m long um so sorry I think it’s five five

Over 5 m long and it’s just a huge huge car with with crazy specs and you can see the three rows of interior right there let’s continue on the earnings call over here in the meantime we’ve been making progress with our five seat so our supercharger Network expansion 130 supercharge station along highways

Nationwide we’re going to establish 300 Highway supercharging stations um by the end of this year so almost tripling that by the the end of this year um and that this was from November right covering the four major economic zones we will further accelerate the roll out to increase Nationwide Highway coverage

While also actively building Urban supercharging stations thereby greatly improving users energy replenishment experiences moving on to autonomous driving our NOA and our ad Max platform continuing to progress smoothly so they’re prog they’re big in the autonomous thing as well similar to Tesla and similar to byd or to xpv

Autonomous driving is is something they’re focused on here they’re going to continue investing in so expect some R&D um but again they have the cash pile to to pursue that turning to the development of our direct sales okay so 372 retail stores in 103 cities they’re expanding fastly to 400 in 140 cities

And they want to increase their market share which they think is not even close to being saturated yet ESG accomplishments for whatever it’s worth upgraded to the highest AAA rating by msci ESG research making leeauto the first Chinese Auto aut maker to ever receive this rating whatever but governance product safety quality and

Clean tech development um okay so that’s it’s better to have it than not have it I guess so I want to emphasize from the company’s operations side each quarter and every year we want to keep our gross margins above 20% so they basically asked if these were realistic um as they

Ramp up production and things of that nature if they and they do think it is uh healthy and they can keep um investing into R&D and also service the network expansion for the future while maintaining this gross margin um so that’s pretty good to see and that’s

Going to give them enough you know enough margins to be profitable on the bottom line as well product line next year we’ll be launching four new completely new models which creates a record since the company’s beginning in the first half we’ll be launching another large SUV product catered

Towards younger families which is the L6 in the second half of the year we’re going to have three beev models so three more complete electric vehicle models um which means they’re going to have four by the end of next year the rate and method of the launch will be very

Similar to other successful experience from our previous products and they know how to ramp up production so I think they’ve proven that with their models their numbers that keep exceeding uh expectations and we’re going to talk about that you can see that here right look at these sales numbers from 1.6

Billion December 21 to 4.8 billion they’ve more than tripled their sales in just under 3 years right that’s September December numbers come out next and not only are they increasing their sales number increasing their earnings on a quarterly basis and now going into the first four year of profitability

While they ramp up those margins 20% they were 12% a year ago right those gross margins but not only is this growing this is accelerating right triple digit um and high double digit that’s good to see but even better to see is when sales growth of this magnitude is actually accelerating sales

Right plus 13 plus 49 plus 82 plus 209 plus 21% right from the prior year so accelerating growth is is huge to see and and how are they meeting all these deliveries well they know how to they know how to mass scale these are a couple of Articles we’re

Going to go through here to finish off the fundamental side of things um a couple good points here from the Asian investor and bashra Isa 300% in deliveries compared to the previous year defined industry trends of falling margins they have increased their vehicle margins they’ve also issued an impressive guidance they expect to

Continue and sustain that growth um and revenues are trending up which again is diverting from the EV competition they are engaged in a price war that Tesla started Le Auto is gr much faster than the competition they reported a marginal increase in vehicle margins which is respectable considering that Leo’s

Vehicle margin increase goes against the industry Trend we’re not seeing that with all the other EV companies Lee delivered 40,000 EVS in the quarter its highest delivery volume ever and they left the competition in the dust for comparison Neo delivered 16,000 and xang brought 20,000 so more than Dublin

They’re kind of two biggest rivals in in China over there so twice as many and to yeah so this is why the revenues are through the roof those are the delivery numbers and that trend is just going absolutely vertical turning to the margins cuz they’re delivering but are

They profitable in these operations when it comes to earnings reports for Ev companies the most important number is the vehicle margin because it shows whether they can sell the product profitably to their customers or whether they’re losing money on each sale or whether like T they just want to ramp up volume they

Worried about profitability later because they’re worried about market share but margins have been a big topic this year because Tesla has done these aggressive price Cuts have increased pricing pressure for all EV manufacturing Tesla’s prioritizing volume growth over profitability and we’re seeing in Tesla and and these other companies a deteriorating margin

Trend um in in the in the third quarter however Lee has successfully resisted this trend and reported an impressive we talked about the 21% showing an improvement Lee Auto strong vehicle margin as well as robust outlook for Q4 are two major takeaways and you can see

You know 12% September up to 21% this year um 21.2% so huge growth and you know they they say that they can continue to deliver this then comes the Lee mega they’re going to be able to ramp that up so we can expect maybe for

A year or two the margins to take a slight hit because the release of the mega they need to ramp that up but they know how to ramp that up and once that’s in that mass production scale um you know these are sustainable margins and there’s exceedingly you know the demand

For that vehicle exceeded their expectations right so it could be their best performing vehicle to date and again verse the competition you can see in these charts right here what what Lee is doing let’s move on here to this last one this is the unique range extender

Technology um that that I mentioned we can explain it right here the company adopts a unique approach to tackling range anxiety and charging inconvenience through range extenders which are small gasoline engines that generate electricity to power its SUV’s battery when an EV charging station is unavailable in large countries like

China in the US um people have this range anxiety they don’t want to maybe I can’t find a charging station cuz they’re not as prevalent um it’s a newer technology well this marketing strategy is working and this you know their sales are through the roof cuz they alleviate that anxiety

Moreover they completed the development of an all Electric Manufacturing facility um with the first model sped to okay we T that’s the Lee mea right but that facility is also completed uh okay China is the largest ev Market in the world accounting for 50% of EV sales globally thanks to a supportive

Regulatory environment and government subsidies that strengthen Supply chains reduce prices and increase demand they’re also rich in minerals that are used in battery production including lithium Cobalt nickel and manganese enhancing the EV sector supply chain and by extension private companies aligning their operation with the CCP emission reduction goals this tremendous

Potential hasn’t gone unnoticed we know that Warren Buffett invests in byd and he’s up over 200% um Volkswagen bought a stake in xang Abu Dhabi has a stake this Fund in Abu Dhabi has a stake in Neo which they actually just announced today that they uh more than doubled right

They invested another 2.2 billion we’re going cover Neo again on his channel here soon so subscribe for that basically um this is the largest e Market in the world and it’s just getting started there’s so much more room for expansion in that market it’s not anywhere near saturated and everything’s aligning between the

Subsidies that the government is giving to these companies to come develop and build there especially for for newer technology and you know the supply chain that they have there and the actual country’s emission goals it all aligns for a massive growth and that’s what we’re seeing with leap so this this a

Crowded Market it is but there’s a lot of crowded markets in new technology right whether it’s semiconductors Space Race uh blockchain and crypto we’re going to see the competition come in that doesn’t mean that the best companies the leaders are going to lead and they’re going to outperform right

Critics argue that the Chinese is overpopulated the EV market right um over 300 manufacturers in the country but they’re primarily small local producers trying to reap benefits from the ccp’s liberal subsidies nonetheless the landscape is changing in light of recent adjustments in subsidy policies that now prioritize Merit the new

Subsidies now exclude smaller manufacturers with limited technological advantages this is going to open up market share for those with Superior Innovative engines longer range vehicles and faster battery charging capabilities for example some companies went bankrupt so companies seeming to take advantage of this are not going to be able to with

These adjustments and it’s going to squeeze some of these smaller players that don’t bring anything to the table out of the race right they’re just here for a check and a cash grab it’s not going to work you got to bring you got to it’s through Merit right you got to

Bring some new technology to the table Market strategy so again they their range extenders that’s how they’re marketing to people um you know these little gasoline powered motors can be fueled to generate electricity charging the lithium ion batteries on the go and setting it apart and it’s a different

Strategy and it’s cool that all of these major companies are having these these different strategies right Tesla and it’s it’s supercharger station is 4 EV you know um Lee has this uh the gasoline powered motor Neo has a battery as a service model where you’re actually swapping out your

Battery when it runs it you go to one of these stations and swap your empty battery for a fully charged battery we’re going to see how that’s going to work for them um I’ll cover that in a video tomorrow if it does work it has some advantages of its own but it’s not

Convenient for many people if they don’t live near these these places xank Focus heavily on integration of autonomous driving um so that’s them and then byd offers a focus strategy and exposure to um passenger EV Vehicles as opposed to the comprehensive byd does a lot of things right Tech hardware and tons of

Things but different strategies for all the biggest players Le Auto is the only emerging premium EV business to report an increase in vehicles sold in Q2 and you know everyone else is struggling with deliveries with supply chain and with price Cuts uh in that price war that Tesla started and this is that

Right here Lee is the only one to maintain its pricing strategy while all these other companies have succumbed to a price cutting War um so that um decision to Hold Steady despite this pricing termo while maintaining a strong growth momentum indicates a robust Market position this is key we you know

Not it’s not like they’re calling bluff but they’re because we see the numbers the trip 160% Revenue growth they have a strong position they’re deciding to Hold Steady they’re not bluffing they don’t need to play these games because the market has spoken right and uh they have

A robust position let’s move on to the TA here this videoos little too long for uh Christmas hope you guys appreciate if you’re appreciate leave a thumbs up here right we were trading sideways since the IPO we’re still in the sideways range I think once we break out over 50 this

Thing’s going to really get going but what happened is we put in this bottom and near the bottom of this range this long-term base you know stage one base we broke out into this kind of stage two advance and now this is our first pullback to the 200 moving average what

We’re trying to do here is build a second base on the 200 moving average build a sort of double bottom right we have bottom one we have bottom two what I like about this particular area for potential is that in a strong bull market you should test 200 moving

Average at least once this is kind of that first test uh putting in a potential double bottom which is a reversal chart pattern a bullish chart pattern um I think that test is going to hold the first test here we saw Jupiter pendulum Divergence with green Shades which are oversold conditions second

Test we’re seeing Divergent pendulum with oversold conditions as well um and we’re not seeing red dots on the way down right we we like to see these Green Dots in momentum and do green tags on the way up and you can see the increasing volume on the way up

Decreasing volume on the way down not the best volume profile but nothing to be alarmed with um in terms of red skyscrapers or anything like that um and so I think there’s a good chance here we had a shake out right it doesn’t mean you’re going to hold it’s an area the

200 moving average you don’t put your stop right at it 3day shake out reconfirm and this thing traded up same thing we’ve shaken Out Below stopped a couple of people out at the Divergence and the fact that we G down traded up on Friday shows me that there are still

Buyers at the 200 moving average but it’s best to wait for confirmation there’s no need to risk this thing if you can do what you did back here and reconfirm by closing back above the 200 moving average on strong volume on a strong green pendulum then I think

You’re going to have a simple trade right you close back above it tomorrow or or Tuesday you have a you know 3 4% stop or below tomorrow’s daily candle wherever you want it with you know 10 to one or or higher upside right 30 40% or

Higher if you want to hold it for the long term so I think it’s a unique moment because there’s a Divergence here between what’s happening um you know this accelerating Revenue right here as price you know the past two quarters this 200% plus as price has been in this

Correction been digesting the strong move right 300% move it needs some time it needs to digest that move some profit taken new positions being built but it’s showing you that buyers are willing to step in at the 200 moving average and now we’re seeing Divergence again as we

Approach it again so that means seller exhaustion the Bears are losing momentum so if we can see buyers prove to us one more time they’re going to step in and defend a 200 moving average we have a nice trading opportunity with this sales Divergence um you know and that’s just

Going to be a overall second base on the 200 and we can continue hi fundamentals look good let me know what you think down below about the new le Mega would you buy it would you drive it um maybe you’re soccer mom van um guys I hope you

Enjoyed this video pretty cool company and pretty exciting um current situation in the charts so I’ll be looking for potential opportunity to get involved in Lee I do like the fundamentals I do like that it’s a fast a leader in a fast growing industry and it’s about to print

Its first year of full uh you know fouryear profitability um so I Look to get into leaders that are growing at these kind of rates especially when they present a good um a good area on the charts all right guys love you guys enjoy your Christmas thanks for watching

Uh leave a like comment subscribe I’ll see you in the next one peace

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