Bitcoin Warning: This Historic Chart PREDICTS When Crypto Will EXPLODE

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Video Description:
In this video, we analyse the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle & the Yield Curve Inversion and Un-Inversion; its effects on the stock markets, and what happens to bitcoin and crypto during this stage of these cycles.

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Today is the big one you’ve been asking for it for months it has been in news headlines forever and the data suggests that it’s not as bad as the media makes out and of course the analysts make out as well we’re going to dive into two massive historic charts that suggest that the

Markets in 2024 are not going to be as bad as the media is anticipating and we’re going to look at some major major narratives that suggesting that we are going to go into a recession in 2024 and of course I want to unpack the data around these particular points and of

Course as we bring all this data together let’s have a look at what may happen in late 2024 and how crypto will explode and looking at history when it has exploded from this point there’s a lot of big claims that are making in this video but we’re just going to look

At the data stick to the facts and see what happens in 24 to see if history Rhymes according to the Past hit the like And subscribe button it is your home of macro cycle analysis studying the past to forecast the future and we cover crypto the stock markets Bitcoin

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Guys let’s kick it off with the first bit of data and the data I’m looking at here is basically the Panic phase S&P 500 after the Panic phase of typical sentiment Cycles cycling from plus6 to negative point6 anyway the main thing here is that there are 10 signals and

After these particular signals 6 to 12 months later you typically get a positive result on the S&P 5 100 so before we have a look at the data below let’s have a look at what this is exactly you can see we’ve got the Panic line up here and then basically the

Opposite to panic I guess the calm in the storm as the market continues up and essentially all this is looking at is a flip from Panic to let’s call it calm within 30 days so a really really fast flick from uh Panic to not panic and what typically happens after those

Periods now we looked at 6 months not a great reading 3 months not a great reading either you got you’re just looking at roughly 60% but 12 months later 80% of the time the market has been positive this goes back all the way to the the Great Depression 1928 you can

See a few readings back here in 1932 1933 1935 then again in the 40s you got one in the 50s 70s couple a few in the 80s and then our current reading here in 2023 so they’re pretty well spread out over the course of 100 years but

Remember this is a really fast move from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism that’s within 30 days so if you could bring this reading back to say well what if it happened in less than 45 days or or 60 days and you’ll get a few more data points here but this one is looking

At the extremes going from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism within 30 days so basically their their Panic sentiment cycle here and over the 12 months well 80% of the time the markets have been higher with a median result here of around 15% average Max gain 22% meaning that possibly over 2024 we

Might have a pullback as we’ve been looking at on the channel but at the end of the 12 months that last quarter of 2024 potentially eight out of 10 times we’ll see positive results here a maximum they’ve seen in the past is roughly 22% from when the signal

Occurred and this signal will occurred on the solstice 21st of December so let’s look forward 12 months to the next Solstice 2024 just before Christmas time let’s see if the markets can heat up and give us 15 to 22% from the current prices so that’s our first piece of data there just

Looking at the uh the Panic into that sort of greed stage or at least less Panic now the big one the yield curve you may have seen this before and you guys have asked about it many many times so let’s remember how the news headlines happen they start to tell us this news

When the yeld curve inverts so when it goes underneath the zero line here then they bang on about it for months upon months upon months fearing everyone out of the markets you guys know exactly what has happened to the markets in the last 12 months basically a huge

Skyrocketing move to the upside then they keep fearing the market again as the market or as the yield curve uninverted only to see that there is still more time after the yield curve uninverted until you get a recession now even in the recession the market has already been down so there’s already

Signals to show you that the market is down is that occurring now it doesn’t seem like it so even if this does unvert we’ve got to we have to watch the chart to figure out what happens with the market remember our money is in the markets it’s not on this yield curve

Inversion or uninversity piece of data that’s basically what everyone looks at and we know from history that the narrative is when the yield curve inverts we’re going to see a recession when the yield curve un inverts we’re going to see a recession but they always fail to tell

You how long that can take some of the data shows that it could be up to four years that you could wait until you see a recession and if that’s the case well maybe we have that period now maybe we are in that and we have a few more years

To go until we see the recession so I’m not saying there won’t be a recession I’m just saying the timing is always off especially when we just listen to news headlines so let’s have a look at the data here that has been put together by a sentiment Trader fantastic stuff here

These guys are always producing really really good data so looking at the S&P 500 performance following initial inversion well you can see the S&P over the next 12 months has had positives and negatives but typically it is leaning more more to the positive side here so

As it says here the results on the table are neither uniformally bullish nor uniformally bearish so all we hear is that the market is going to collapse we’re going to see recessions watch the yield curve invert then un invert then wait and essentially the data shows that

It’s not bullish nor bearish but if you had to lean to one side there’s typically they skew to the positive side if we’re looking just 12 months ahead so the sky is falling narrative is not born out the table below summarizes the results from the above table 16 up 8

Down number of times that the Market’s done greater than 10% 15 and then down to the downside one now what about the UN inversion the S&P 500 performance following initial unversioned then uninverted then inverted then uninverted then inverted then uninverted so it’s not an absolute science here it’s not absolutely clean

However looking at this here when it initially un inverts S&P over the next 12 months positives negatives lots of positives one negative here lots of positives many negatives here all coming from that 2007 period and then the one that we got here in 2022 just late last

Year or middle of last year there so once again the results on the table above are neither uniformly bullish nor uniformly bearish although they do skew to the positive side so the way I read that is we really must stick to the data and avoid all of the news headlines I

Think this is going to be a massive one in the coming years 2024 2025 maybe even into 2026 this chart will continue to come up because of course the yield curve has been inverted for quite some time and then maybe when this uninverted we’ll start to hear more and more about how we

Should see a recession soon meanwhile depending on where we are in the cycle the markets could continue up from that point look at what happened back in the 80s there was a recession but the market the yield curve inverted again then uninverted then you had another

Recession here in the early 80s you got 1982’s and then it remained above and then again inverted uninverted then you had to wait a period of time so pay particular attention to the data is what I’m saying here avoid the news headlines for what they are and just stick to the

Charts a great point to up on the yield curve if you’re ever looking at the yield curve ever you’re hearing those signals in 2 months 6 months 12 months come back to this particular video bookmark it save it somewhere put on your watch list whatever you got to do a

Nice answer here or a nice finish from the author so have we debunked the notion that the inverted yield curve provides a warning sign not really because sometimes it does so let’s be clear about the implications this message is not that investors should ignore the state of the yield either now

Or any any time in the future the real point is understanding that the yield curve is only one factor that may affect the stock market so it’s simply just looking at one thing and what the media and other anal analysts try to do is tell us this one thing is going to be

Our savior our Holy Grail to tell us that the market is going to collapse and we all should understand that there is no one Holy Grail in the market there are many factors coming together this last line here one key to long-term investing investment success is to avoid

Self-inflicted wounds I love this one here if you shoot yourself in the foot it’s hard to take the next step so if you shoot yourself in the foot trying to figure out a Holy Growl like this it’s going to be very very difficult to take that next step and as many investors

Have done over the last one to two years well they have expected the markets to collapse meanwhile the last 14 months or so they’ve missed out on an epic rally switching from an epic rally into an epic decline the US dollar this one’s important for our markets going into

2024 and this second half of the real estate cycle we’ve suggested that the US dollar is going to continue to collapse so far it’s done just that it has had a rebound early this year came right into the 50% can you see that can you imagine how beautiful Gan got this thing back

Over a hundred years ago to figure out that markets are attracted to 50% levels it blows my mind all the time no computers nothing like that whatsoever to figure out this fantastic tool here the 50% super simple to use on your extreme levels now now that I finished

That rent having a look at the 50% major double top hit that got rejected Market has been down from that point using our Gan swing indicator you can see that the trend is well and truly down lower highs lower lows swing indicator top of the video description 7-Day free trial

Something that we use for all of our trading and investing across any time frame it’s really really easy to use now we’re about 1 and a half% from putting in a new low here after that peak in 2022 that would bring us out to about a

91 we low so coming up to about a 2year low here for the US dollar now of course it needs to get there we got a 1 and a half% move to go from where it currently is to break 99 uh I suspect it’ll happen over the

The coming months this is something to watch because the weakness in the US dollar is obviously going to help out the stock markets going to help out cryptos and of course it’s going to help out Bitcoin now if that wasn’t enough I’ve got another extremely massive cycle

That we are watching into 2024 it has helped us out fantastically well in 2022 and in 2023 2024 is going to be the big one it is the 4-year presidential cycle now looking at the S&P 500 it’s given us a few little Clues here we can see that

After the election or just around that election point you can see the market typically has a little bit of a pullback into the election but what’s going to get really interesting is looking at this and how it applies or at least we can overlay it on top of the Bitcoin

Chart and for cryptos to explode using the the terminology that the cool kids like to use and their titles and all that sort of jazz what we’re looking at here is of course the election year coming up in 2024 because we just had the pre-election year which typically

Shows extreme upside now this extreme upside is in uh the third year so year three that’s the year we’ve gone through in year four it typically isn’t as large but there is still an upside for that fourth year now of course it’s not always going to repeat exactly the same

Because we can see the second year also had a positive return of 4.5% but what we actually saw in the second year itself here so 2022 is we saw a negative year of roughly 20 25% so we had that down year coming into the market but essentially it was a

Correction because well now we can see the market has reached high prices from that point so we use this to understand where the cycle might head of course I’m not saying that it has to happen exactly like this but it’s interesting to point out that this has been data from roughly

1928 and this is typically the cycle that the market follows so the third year has been the best year and the fourth year isn’t as good as the third year but it’s gains so who’s complaining what I’ve done here is just break down the previous two and a half years

Leading into that election uh to see if we’ve got any sort of similarities to the current market structure and what we could expect into 2024 so just putting it reasonably simply the breakout point is basically where I ended the monthly count you can see here the breakout

Point there happened to be on the the Bitcoin harving the Bitcoin harving happened just slightly earlier than the breakout point before the election and then going back to a significant point in the Market top so the market top for the S&P which also roughly coincides with the top for the Bitcoin cycle

Itself because like we’ve seen with the accumulation chart which I believe is this one here um you’ve got the period of Bitcoin accumulation before the market just goes into a massive bull market now doesn’t look like much on this chart here but of course Bitcoin in 2017 just skyrocketed and for the S&P

There was basically no pullbacks in that period And if there are pullbacks like we had in 2021 they’re all higher lows and just very very shallow pullbacks before you finally get that top and then of course the market corrects from there so heading back to this chart here just

Looking at that 2 and a half year period from those Peaks there’s been some significant pullbacks just before we get to that election so you got the Bitcoin Haring you got the election you got the breakout and the market sort of Dipping into the election before the market goes

Absolutely chaotic after that election now I’m only looking at the period for bitcoin’s history on the S&P so there’s not that many data points we obviously like to use far more data points than this but let’s use what we have because essentially that’s the only data that

We’ve got so just coming back to the uh cycle here in 2014 15 16 into that 17 you can see the market had a significant pullback three months that’s where my counter is here just using the Gan swing indicator turn this on then you can filter out a number of bar counts you

Only see the significant moves in either direction so uh three bar counts is what we’re looking at here so the market saw three months against the trend we had the uptrend we had three months back then it started to Rally out of that low the Bitcoin have Haring happened in that

Rally Market pauses has a little bit of a pivot comes back for a period this time it was three months again into that low of the election and then 2016 well Market took off from that point everything went chaotic 2017 huge huge bull market the cycle after

That we had another 3mon pullback after the peak another couple of months which was very very significant obviously the covid pullback Bitcoin harving happened in the market rallying to a breakout point then the market paused into the election so basically two months before the election election happens Market’s

Going a chaotic bull market into that final Peak so looking forward now where we’ve had a 3mon pullback it seems like it could be a little early but we’ve seen that in the past so maybe we see that again leading into the first half of 2024 then you’ve got the election

Later in 2024 and what we’ve seen from that election is basically a couple of months before it the market just pauses and waits to see what goes on this isn’t something that is unknown many people know about this many investors funds everything knows about uh the period leading up to the election

And they sort of wait to see who gets in before they start to make their plays in the market once that occurs bam things go absolutely ballistic so if history is anything like the past and you can even see it from the previous cycle before the market went to a new all-time high

The Bitcoin harving and the election happened at that time markets went ballistic after that point to break into a new all-time high after the GFC so as I was saying if the markets are anything like the past we could potentially see another ridiculous crazy chaotic move late 2024

Into 2025 because these things typically last for roughly a year from that point you can see here that was 14 months from the election into that first Peak we take it from the 2022 top to the election roughly there 14 months again we got another top and for shits and

Giggles let’s have a look at the election from 2012 and go forward 14 months well there it is is 13 months had your first Peak and that was the peak for Bitcoin as well so election 134 maybe 12 to 14 months later could potentially be that crazy bull market

That brings all of the retail in they go ballistic and degenerate onto altcoins but for now we’re still sitting in a roughly 3- we holding pattern on BTC holding between 41 and $444,000 we’ve had a significant move to the upside so far 85 days from the low in September to

The peak that we’ve just seen in early December should this Market push higher than 45 well then we just drag out the day count to roughly wherever that point is and review the markets from there now to BTC and the election point just so we

Can get a clear look at this on the Bitcoin chart there is the election election and the coming election right here so from each of those election points Bitcoin has gone ballistic so if we want to get in before that let’s have a look at some timing before things go

Bananas the election in 2016 was a breakout of the 50% level and a few months earlier was the harving so you got the breakout to the low it’s about three months before the election you had that nice little low there so November 3 months earlier is roughly August so

Let’s have a look at it again well we know November is typically the election month 3 months earlier well there’s your Peak there in August and a low into September so two months at that point let’s take it back to one previous cycle so this one here doesn’t have as much

Data we’ve got the election here and the harving in the same month and the pullback was basically the month early here you can see the red month there on uh on October but if you want to have a look at the peak in August there’s three

Months earlier well you got the big boom and the big pullback in that particular month that was August of 2012 election happens Market goes ballistic from that point we can see it again on the chart election happens markets go absolutely ballistic from that point and again the

Market got a little bit of a move on just before the election which is why I was bringing up looking at time frames just slightly before that election yet potentially after that Haring as we see a little bit of a pause and a pullback from the hype of the Haring from that

Point markets go ballistic so looking at the altcoin market cap the total three here this excludes Bitcoin and ethereum there’s bitcoin’s new all-time high which was also the November month which was the election of 2020 well you can see that altcoins went absolutely ballistic we only have one chart here or

One presidential cycle for the altcoin market because it’s so fresh can it happen again we’ve only got one data point that’s what we’re betting on right so let’s have a look at a few months prior to that you can go back four months five months takes us to the point

Uh where the market was just starting to break out after that Co trap so that was five months and if we look back to the low of that Co trap it’s roughly eight months so what we want to do is have a look look at where the election is so

That’s November and take it back four five four to five up to about 8 months prior to that to see if we can get into that nice low point for the altcoins after a potential correction you know nothing has pulled back yet we’ve got ethereum going ballistic so 4 months

Takes you uh to July so four months back and then eight months takes us to roughly about April uh of 20124 that’s 7 months so roughly around that March April period as well so leading into that late quarter 1 Maybe early quarter two for that pullback and probably based

On the Cycles we’ve looked at for 12 years on the S&P and Bitcoin and then only one cycle here for the altcoins that could be our last opportunity before the markets go absolutely nuts this is the video to bookmark it’s the video to share with anyone that is

Asking about the yield curve whether it inverts or uninverted what happens to bitcoin what happens to cryptos what happens to the stock markets in a presidential year all of this together gives us an outlook for 2024 remember none of this is guaranteed we’re just having a look back on the past 12 years

In this case and for the yield curve over 40 years and for the presidential cycle over 100 years so hit the like And subscribe button bookmark this put on your watch list I’ll see you guys at the next video and if you want to check out

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On the channel or on Twitter as well in the next video Until then take care and peace out