Silver’s Ballistic Moves In Bull Markets | Michael Oliver

Even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in 2024, Michael Oliver expects a pullback in the stock market. He shows that rate cuts are often actually bearish for the stock market. He expects investment managers to continue to shift their investments to allocate a higher percentage to monetary metals and mining stocks. He forecasts silver will outperform gold in 2024.

WEEKLY SPECIALS (while supplies last!)
1 oz Silver Eagles: $4.99 over spot
90% constitutional silver: $3.00 over spot/oz
1/10 oz Gold Maple Leaf coins @ $30.00 over melt (5 coin minimum)
CALL US: 1-888-81-LIBERTY (1-888-815-4237)
or email your name and phone number to LibertyAndFinance@Protonmail.com

INTERVIEW TIMELINE:
0:00 Intro
1:14 S&P 500 and rates
5:34 Stock market in 2024
8:35 Gold update
16:54 Silver update
20:50 Banking system
23:08 Oliver MSA
24:43 Weekly specials
_____________________________
Subscribe for our FREE newsletter – #1 place for gold & silver news & commentary: http://libertyandfinance.com
_____________________________
CANADIANS CAN NOW BUY SILVER & GOLD ONLINE IN $CAD and support this channel! Go to https://mfbullion.ca, and during checkout under the dropdown selection “How did you hear of us (optional),” select: “LibertyAndFinance – Dunagun Kaiser” !

Social Media links
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/LibertyAndFinance
Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/LibertyAndFinance
Google Podcasts: https://bit.ly/3gYtU8Q
Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/LibertyandFinance
Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/dunagun
Odysee: https://odysee.com/@LibertyAndFinance
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LibertyAndFinance/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DunagunKaiser
Gettr: https://gettr.com/user/libertyandfinance
Gab: https://gab.com/LibertyAndFinance
Parler: https://parler.com/libertyfinance
Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/1023449
Amazon podcasts: https://amzn.to/3SLyANx
iHeart Radio: https://iheart.com/podcast/102551300/
Patreon: https://www.Patreon.com/LibertyAndFinance

Donate to Support Our Mission!
https://www.Patreon.com/LibertyAndFinance
or
https://www.paypal.me/ReluctantPreppers
_____________________________
Liberty and Finance LLC receives financial compensation from its sponsors. The compensation is used is to fund both sponsor-specific activities and general report activities, website, and general and administrative costs. Sponsor-specific activities may include aggregating content and publishing that content on the Liberty and Finance website, creating and maintaining company landing pages, interviewing key management, posting a banner/billboard, and/or issuing press releases. The fees also cover the costs for Liberty and Finance to publish sector-specific information on our site, and also to create content by interviewing experts in the sector. Liberty and Finance LLC does accept stock for payment of sponsorship fees. Sponsor pages may be considered advertising for the purposes of 18 U.S.C. 1734.
The Information presented in Liberty and Finance is provided for educational and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The Information contained in or provided from or through this forum is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information on this forum and provided from or through this forum is general in nature and is not specific to you the User or anyone else. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON THIS FORUM WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A PROFESSIONAL BROKER OR COMPETENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR. You understand that you are using any and all Information available on or through this forum AT YOUR OWN RISK.
All Rights Reserved.

If you go back and look at the prior bull markets of the last 50 years in gold silver tags along but quite often during a lot of that bull market silver flip-flops around but it’s laid in those bull trends that silver goes ballistic this is Kaiser Johnson with

Liberty and finance and these are the miles Franklin weekly specials for December 25th 2023 through January 1st 2024 while supplies last first we feature 110 ooun gold maples at just $30 over melt with a minimum qu of five next we have silver eagles at $4.99 over spot

Making this a great time to swap silver bars into Silver Eagles at the lowest premium in years finally constitutional 90% silver is just $3 overs spot per ounce to order our specials or any of the many other options we have available call us at 188881 Liberty that’s 188881

54237 we’re available after hours and on weekends and we look forward to speaking with you hey everyone this is Elijah K Johnson with liberty and finance and back with us today is our good friend Michael Oliver from momentum structural analysis Michael thank you so much for

Joining us today ni to be back Elijah well it’s great to have you the website is Oliver msa.com people definitely should check that out there I did want to discuss and we’ll pull up the charts here you sent me uh from your work the SNP and also the tbon Futures monthly

Comparing them back from from uh the 2000s to 2009 uh it’s really interesting the correlations you see there because a lot of people uh think that when interest rates drop then that should be bullish for the stock market and we’re obviously seeing you know people very bullish right now on the stock market

The stock market making all-time highs and a lot of people are expecting rate Cuts coming in 2024 but in your view this should not actually be bullish for the stock market this should could actually be very bearish your perspective well it is uh the FED has always lagged reality they’re never

Ahead of the game and in our view they they created a dozen year plus bubble in the stock market never before been seen of the dimension and duration the S&P went up Sevenfold NASDAQ 100 went up 16 fold okay over a period of 12 13 years 2009

2021 uh or early 22 for some indices we’re now back in price at some of those levels S&P is back near the high it made above 4,800 in early 2022 and NASDAQ 100 is nipped out its high it occurred I think in late 2021 but right now this enthusiastic buying

That we’re seeing I’ve never seen such frothy absolute Fearless sense of I got to be there okay and yet it’s historically archivally incorrect if you go back and look at the last two major Market Peaks that that are on those charts you’ll see the S&P

Peaked in 2000 by the way after a period of rate Rises by the FED they quit raising rates in May of 2000 and the market in July they came out with a statement the FED did that we see some softening which is one of these hint type statements meaning

We’re not going to raise anymore okay so that was in Late July of 2000 in August it shot up and made a new high monthly close for the S&P based on that assumption no doubt oh boy the rate cuts are over party time okay that was the top period exclamation point and in

January of 2001 as you were rolling over very early in the bare Market they started cutting rates dramatically yet the market collapsed now if you look at that chart what you’ll see is the overlay of the T bond market as it rises and Falls meaning when it rises rates are dropping

When it falls rates are rising okay it’s inverse to rates and look at the the S&P 500 monthly below it and you’ll see that basically around the times that the T bonds bottom and turn up meaning rates are starting to drop that’s when the stock market

Peaks and all during that bare Market of 2000 to late 2002 in the stock market the bonds went up totally opposite what the current logic is and then you go over there to 2007 further on the right of both charts and you’ll see that the S&P made its final high in October 2007

Well that’s actually a few weeks after they had cut rates in September after a period of rate Rises and a couple years before so they cut rates and the market peaked in other words if you have shorted the S&P about 3 weeks after the FED cut rates in 2007 you have shorted

The top okay so here we have an instance where both the prior two bull market peaks in the stock market were coincident inverse to the right direction which is totally opposite the current logic is oh they’re going to they’re going to pause and two they’re going to cut rates we know that they

Already said to cut three times next year so the only debate is when and how many times and so the part’s on but it’s just like those prior tops yes there was a brief party on that assumption but it was the top so if that’s your assumption

Driving your re your rationale of buying the stock market think twice history says no that’s not a good idea in 2024 if we do see rate cuts are you then expecting uh selloff in the stock market I think it’ll be underway even before then and I think that’ll help uh

Accentuate the fed’s desire to cut rates once they see the paper asset bubble rolling over again uh they’re probably pretty happy right now that the paper assets are hanging in there now what really spooked the FED though in our view and we said this in early in about

Middle of last year before the t-bond market crashed and that’s what it did from like July August SE to October uh meaning yields Rose t-bond prices collapsed we thought that would spook the fed that’s one asset that they don’t want to see get out of control become

Ill liquid go the wrong way and it certainly wasn’t quote incremental you know they like to do things incrementally you know like they’re scientist or something well their t-bond Market crashed on them so that said you’re out of you’re not in control of anything you know uh Bruce Willis up in

The building you know you’re not in control of I won’t say it but anyway so I think that’s what really spooked them more than any data point we might want to discuss on financial TV about you know one decimal point difference here or there it’s the collapse in their t-bond Market that put

A chill up their backbone and definitely cause them to behind the scenes decide now and no more rate rate rate Rises and we’ll put the head out that we’re going to cut too it’s not so much the data points it’s the collapse in that market now since then what we call the nuke

Event before it happened we also said it would be a vbottom low meaning you would get high yields low price in t- bonds but when it turned it would come up like a you know like a vbottom like some collapsing commodity that finally went

Too far you know what I mean and it did and I suspect the fed and the treasury in there buying that stuff along with some large asset managers as well and this time justifiably so because technically anyway there was justification for a good counter Trend

Rally in the t- bonds or drop in yields and I think we’re going to see more of that over the next let’s say quarter we’re not long-term bullish on bonds but we do think rates will probably not be a threat and will be a so-called beneficiary to the stock market the

Problem is it isn’t historically when rates come down it’s because the FED is what concerned about something and I think there’ll be multiple things for them to be concerned about so anyway I don’t trust the stock market rally here our technicals don’t trust it price has

Nipped out the high not on the S&P yet but you’ve got to remember that especially the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 are very heavily weighted up front with a handful of symbols it’s not 500 S&P stocks it’s like five explain the entire move and the NASDAQ 100 it’s like three or four

Or five stocks explain 50% of its movement so keep that in mind uh so the picture you see on an S&P chart in NASDAQ is not the true picture of the stock market uh what is the real reality because it’s really only the tech sector right that’s driving this this rally in

The General stock market we ran in a report yesterday just simple spread charts meaning the performance relationship between let’s say the tech sector in the S&P and of course if you look at that spread chart it’s it’s an upward Trend although from a momentum perspective it’s it’s in question right

Now but meaning that the xlk for example which is the tech sector ETF is outperforming the S&P fine okay uh it’s our experience whenever we analyze any given sector doesn’t matter which it’s gold miners or it’s uh uh oil producers or Health Care stocks you go within that

Sector and start looking at the symbols that constitute that sector ETF for example and you’re going to find roughly oh 25 30% are outperforming the sector 25 30% probably par performers matching the performance of the sector so when you look at a spread chart sort of

Sideways and maybe that many 25 30% are underperforming the sector this is a constant reality would you never have a situation where every stock in the sector is beating the sector it’s impossible Okay so but we did that with the S&P and looked at every sector

Within it a dozen or so and we only found one that was outperforming the S&P one out of like a dozen sectors all the rest if you look at their spread charts relative to for example where they were at the depths of the 2009 low they’re in a downward trajectory they’ve been

Losing value relative to the S&P and only one sector out of that dozen is outperforming and that’s the tech sector so that’s a highly imbalanced situation it’s it’s it’s bizarre almost and it warns you of the narrowness of this stock market Advance cautions you uh don’t be uh so excited

About a quote new high in the in the S&P or a new high in the NASDAQ 100 it’s extremely narrowly weighted now your perspective on the recent action in the gold market obviously we had a few weeks ago the Pierce of the $2100 level um and

Right now as we speak on in on Thursday morning it seems like kind of afternoon in Eastern time here um it seems like we’re testing again that 2100 level we’re about 2080 2090 right now yeah it’s uh what happened in our view when gold went up early this month in fact it

Was December the 3 Sunday night electronic trading gold tagged the front active month February tagged 21100 for the first time in history all the prior highs of 2020 2022 and early this year were all up in the 2050 level but never could get to 2100 on a $50 increment basis when you hit

2100 there were so many buy stops that were just laid there ready to be triggered probably one shorts who wanted to get out and two new Longs who said Okay I I now believe I’m going to get in and within 40 some odd minutes minutes you went from 2100 to

2150 with about just short of 50,000 contracts traded that’s unbelievable what it says is there was a massive amount of buy stops there that once they you hit 2100 they were executing the orders okay and you gushed $50 higher but as soon as you did if you’ll think

About the mechanisms involved here all the buy orders from 2100 through 2150 were filled so if the market started back down and as I understand it the bank of international settlements sold some gold there there was nothing below me and all your buy orders have just been exhausted

So it’s like a void so when they sold whoh you went back down and you dropped for one week got down under 2,000 again I think it was 2080 something and all of a sudden you’re back up press 2100 again this time resolutely not explosively meaning demand is driving gold right

Back up again so that collapse we saw from that 21 2150 high was largely an aberrational thing due to the nature of the orders that were filled the void in the market and and therefore that largely explains the vacuum effect when it started back down again but then again

Demand came in and we’re back up pressing that level where it you know you Clos close the month here tomorrow it’s a new high monthly close new high monthly close above prior highs etc etc and it did it resolutely so we still see gold is is quite an

Opportunity we see it as the prime alternative to the other asset categories uh including t- bonds which we’re we’re positive on T bonds right now in terms of rising price lower yields but not in the long term U gold is I think the chief beneficiary because

Again the FED has to soften and that’s what drives gold is Central Bank monetary flooding now as we look into 2024 if we do make that all-time record yearly close uh how does that change the sentiment or how does that change the mind in uh the people who are trading the

Market I think it’s already started to change in that there are already some asset managers out there very large ones the rid alos of the world Dr and Miller uh um gunlock and so forth who’ve expressed views that are pretty clear and sometimes not so clear but clearly

In you can imply that they’re not real trusting in the stock market now any large portfolio manager running a large fund you have to be there if it’s going up okay so even if you don’t like the stock market you’re competing not with the market but with your competitors

Other asset managers and if they’re along the stock market and despite the narrowness of the advance they’re making money and you’re not it hurts you so you have to be a buy even if you’re a doubter but over time enough evidence builds up in their minds

To where they shift some degree of money into the monetary medals or more likely Into the Blue Chip gold miners not the Juniors or the micros but the blue chips like the Numan Mining and bar gold and so forth lately we’ve seen evidence technical evidence in our view that

Those big blue chip miners which have underperformed gold since about a year ago there was well gold went into mostly a range-bound situation they actually declined they’re now turning up credibly in fact more so than gold is on a percentage basis compared to like the

Low that was made a month or two ago for example and I think it’s evidence that you’re getting large asset managers who are not gold bugs now but who see the monetary consequences of what’s out there they see that the fed’s going to have to often to protect their bond market for

One thing uh they also don’t trust the economic metrics you know the data points besides those data points always lag the stock market anyway other words it’s it’s never at the top that you all of a sudden see all these truckloads of very negative data points they come in

Later so these large professional asset managers I think are making that decision to shift and of course with gold miners being a very small sector what does that mean it’s they’re grabbing a wet bar or soap and that’s why we’re seeing the the Blue Chip Gold Miner start to outperform

Again so I think it’s happening that transition and once we get some evidence of rollover again in the stock market will take a lot you’re going to get more of that asset class flow out of stocks into gold mining stocks uh and that’ll be further evidence that you

Know there’s a mental shift underway when it comes to Silver what are you seeing there I know the chart isn’t as uh POS positive as we’re seeing for gold at least not as obviously positive but your perspective silver will outperform gold over the next year or so and in if

You go back and look at the prior bull markets of the last 50 years in gold silver tags along but quite often during a lot of that bull market silver flip-flops around sort of like a wet noodle you know yeah it’s going up gradually with gold but it’s not sort of

With the same tonal firmness and so it’s discouraging to look at silver but it’s late in those bull trends that silver goes ballistic you know it’s the poor man’s gold so to speak now I don’t to what extent that that’s the driver but you look for example at the bull market

That peaked in 1980 for gold gold had gone from a low of 103 in the summer of 76 and by 1980 January 1980 was 850 okay huge move but a lot of the gold move occurred in that last year 1979 but if you look at Silver in that last year of

What had been you know multi-year bull Market actually you can go back to the early ’70s where that bull market really began in the $30 Zone silver went ballistic it beat the pants off of gold and the same is true in the 2000 to 2011 bull market in Gold where in

20110 silver started to outperform gold vastly and we expect the same thing now so what we’re monitoring for is not just the net Trend and the momentum dynamics of silver which are by the way positive yes they there seem to be lagging gold but they’re they’re really not there’s

More waffling sideways for the last year in terms of where’s silver in relation to Gold uh it won’t take a lot in terms of that spread relationship for example I think the spread right now is about 1.8 something per. you get up to about 1.2 something per on Silver versus gold meaning

1.18% uh is where it is now you get up to about 1.2% where the ounce of silver is worth that much of gold gold you’re going to break the spreads out meaning the spread relationship between silver and gold will go from a corrective mode or sideways mode recently into an

Uptrend again and I think that’ll be pretty much timed with silver starting to go ballistic again and frankly I I’ve said it before and I still stick with it in the latter phase of this bull market and we might be approaching that in 2024 2025 after all it’s been an eight-year

Old bull market already go bottomed eight years ago to the month okay uh you get that old you know the bull markets are 9 10 years sometimes but it’s in that last year or so with the ballistic nature of the market occurs and that’s when silver goes

Ballistic and a point I’ve made before is that’s when silver could go up to for example if you look at a silver spread versus gold going back 50 years you’ll see that it’s gone up to 2 and 1 half to 3 and a 12% of the price of gold quite a

Few times not just during those bull Trends where the 1 o of silver is worth 22% of the price of gold well if gold does a normal geometric logarithmic scale uptrend as it’s done a couple times in the last 50 years where you measure bare low to Bull High 8old

Moves they’re almost common well we started from 1,50 Eightfold means $88,000 gold and you think that’s outlandish well it’s done that ratio move couple times before in the last 50 years and had far less motivation to do it than our fundamentals right now which are far more dangerous and therefore positive

For gold well if gold went to 8,000 and silver went up to two 2 and a half% of the price of gold again whoa couple hundred silver now is that outlandish no it’s not think about it and a lot of that off that usually occurs very late in the bull Trend and I

Think we’re starting to get into that phase right now looking forward to 2024 I know you recently discussed how Bank stocks are dramatically underperforming the stock market your perspective on the banking sector uh in in in this coming year yeah now it’s it crashed in March

We all know that and by crash I meant the 30% drop in a matter of weeks okay that’s a crash uh we called that in late January we said the banks are about to roll over and at that point Banks were performing better than the S&P at least

Over a short-term period of time um they crashed in March and I’m not just talking about the Regionals but kbe which contains ETF contains the big you know the two big defail Banks and City Bank Bank of America and so forth which look very bad in other

Words they came back down took out the 2022 price lows now they’ve had a rally since but they took out the lows of 2022 that’s like the S&P trading down under 3500 which is where it made a low in 2022 but when you run spread charts of

Those various sectors and we did with banks as well where Banks were in relation to the S&P relative performance value we’re so far below the 2009 low on that spread chart that it’s incredible takes your breath away now we they’re not going to go to zero but that chart almost looks like

Their relative performance could go to zero it’s a horrible looking chart so there’s on a on a net basis the banks look bad still despite the recent little rally and on a relative performance basis they’re a disaster so I don’t see any healing process there

Uh the uh we know the FED like to you know dismiss that problem last year is oh that was Regional Banks being mismanaged by this guy or that guy no it’s not it’s a it’s a problem for the whole sector and also the financial sector as well so I expect that to rise

Again this coming year and of course if any large Bank the too big def fails even gets a headline about a problem uh you know that’s going to turn heads investor heads well it will be very interesting to continue to track this with you Michael if people are

Interested in learning more about your work where can they find you and did you have any last thoughts for our viewers yeah I think 2024 is going to be far more Dynamic than any year you’ve ever seen in your life now I’ve been in markets since 1975

As a Futures broker and then started MSA in in 1992 but I’ve never seen a situ where the huge tectonic plates the stock market the bond markets Forex we talking about the dollar and gold have such dynamics that look pent up meaning they’ve not Unleashed themselves yet and

In in the terms of the stock market that mean downside in terms of bonds uh it’s already done a lot of damage with the crash this year and with the dollar collapsing and the I think you could get what’s called you know Chaos Theory going here words rather than this

Incremental trend Trends which most analysts think of you know when they analyze a market they say we’re going to go from here to here little stair cases you know up or down I think you’re going to get a dynamic year that’s going to take your breath away in terms of

Percentage change in these Major Market categories and you can contact us at Oliver msa.com Um click on one of the sites that shows my picture my son so for I got my email address there click on it be happy to send sample copies to you fantastic Michael once again thank you so much for your time today and uh this whole year really giving us

Insights into the momentum uh of the markets here so thank you once again and happy New Year thank you Elijah this is Kaiser Johnson with liberty and finance and these are the miles Franklin weekly specials for December 25th 2023 through January 1st 2024 while supplies last first we

Feature one0 ooun gold maples at just $30 over melt with a minimum order of five next we have silver eagles at $4.99 over spot making this a great time to swap silver bars into Silver Eagles at the lowest premium in years finally constitutional 90% silver is just $3

Over spot per ounce to order our specials or any of the many other options we have available call us at 188881 Liberty that’s 1 1888 815 4237 we’re available after hours and on weekends and we look for forward to speaking with you