Europe’s Energy Bombshell! | Peter Zeihan
This insightful video delves into the complex geopolitical landscape, focusing on the repercussions of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage and its implications for European energy security. The video discusses the contractual obligations of Gazprom and the potential invocation of force majeure, which could significantly impact Europe’s energy supply and its economic relationship with Russia.
The video also highlights the delicate situation faced by Sweden and Denmark, who possess evidence of the sabotage’s perpetrators. Revealing this information could force Europe to cease trading with Russia, a move fraught with significant geopolitical consequences. The video underscores the strategic patience exercised by these nations in handling this sensitive information.
Moreover, the video explores the broader implications of Germany’s changing role in Europe, particularly in light of its aging population and the shifting dynamics of its labor force. It examines the challenges Germany faces in maintaining its manufacturing prowess and the impact of the loss of Russian commodities on its economy.
The video also critically analyzes the United States’ role in the global trade system under the Biden administration, highlighting a shift from multilateral to bilateral security agreements and a more protectionist economic stance. This change poses challenges for Germany’s economic model, which heavily relies on global trade.
Lastly, the video addresses the practical challenges of the green energy transition, focusing on the limitations of current technologies and the geographical constraints of renewable energy sources. It emphasizes the need for a realistic approach to environmentalism, considering the economic and material realities of transitioning to green energy.
Peter Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst, author, and speaker. He analyzes data from geography, demographics, and global politics to understand economic trends and make predictions.
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And gazprom contractually was now on the hook for paying the Germans for replacement supplies at whatever price the Germans had to pay to get those supplies so you know up by a factor of eight almost overnight but if Force majer kicked in then that all goes away
So you know that’s my theory uh anyway third and perhaps most importantly the swedes are 100% positive who did it they say they’ve got proof but if they provide proof that it was the Russians then Europe has to cease trading completely with the Russian overnight because you cannot have a trading
Partner that is targeting your critical infrastructure and so the swedes have been asked unofficially to sit on the information they’ve been sitting on it now for almost six months and the Danes also supposedly have information and they’re getting a little bit more antsy than even the swedes because you know
The Danes are already in NATO whereas Sweden is still in the waiting room so we’re probably reaching a point fairly soon where some Scandinavian is going to leak this information out and force Berlin and Paris and the rest to do some very difficult things in a very short
Period of time luckily the Europeans have had over a year now to cut their dependency upon the Russian space and honestly it’s going a lot better than I had any reason to expect at the beginning uh hsh’s take is based on one interview with One unnamed source and
The way that it was outlined is not how the United States carries out Special Operations so I’m going to put that in the category of absolute uh that is the concern in the United States in London and across Ukraine and all of Central Europe is that the Germans will
Look for a way to go back to how things were we’re now at a point I would argue that even if the politics were right the economics will never line up again most of the Russian Commodities are produced in the permafrost it’s a territory that slows and and buckles and bends and the
Russians cannot maintain that output in the long term without massive amounts of external funding and more important importantly external labor because their labor force is in a state of collapse so the only way we can go back to 2020 in terms of energy and commodity supplies
Is if we have the war resolved or at least settled overnight and then someone steps forward with at least a trillion euro worth of investment not for Ukraine for Russia German success these last 75 years has been based on three factors number one a very high level of labor
Skill for precision manufacturing number two access to various industrial bases throughout the European space in order to build a differentiate supply chain system for doing the parts of the labor system that are not as capital intensive and not as labor intensive and not as skill intensive so basically Poland is
Your Mexico to uh oversimplify and then third A globalized system that allows the Germans to access lowcost High reliability uh imported raw materials especially energy but also end markets that can absorb all of this product because the Germans produce significantly more product than they could ever consume not just in Europe
I’m sorry not just at home but in Europe as well all three of those pillars are now gone the German population has been Aging for decades and this was always going to be the decade that bulge in the German population moves from the 50s and early 60s into Mass retirement so the
Labor force is no longer there second the European system that that the differentiated supply chain most of the countries that Germany has integrated with have demographics that are just as bad so Poland is actually aging faster than Germany they’re just a little bit younger but the Netherlands
Is nearly as bad Austria is nearly as bad so the ability to main the production system from a labor point of view is going to get significant iFly weaker and then probably third most importantly the Russian stuff’s gone it’s not coming back and as we’ve seen in the United States people around the
World are celebrating that it’s Joe Biden and not Donald Trump but with the exception the one exception of Airbus Boeing that’s spat that’s that one has been put to the side partially resolved with the exception of that every trade dispute that Donald Trump initiated Biden has doubled and tripled down on
And he’s now putting industrial policy in the mix to the for the first time in the United States since the 1940s and this means that the United States is no longer interested at all in maintaining the globalized system the deal that made globalization work was that we will Patrol the ocean so that
Anyone can trade with anyone and access anything and we will leave our markets open if you let us write your security policies to fight the Soviets you may have noticed in all of the deal making that the Biden Administration has done around the world and especially in
Europe that’s not the deal anymore all the security Agreements are purely bilateral there are no economic Hangers On and Biden is taking the American economy home and basically shutting its doors to one region after another and that includes Europe as well and that leaves Germany with China and if you
Think that your dependence upon Russia has generated some interesting geopolitical exposure just wait till we get to a real argument between the Chinese and the Americans sure let let me start by saying I do consider myself a green unfortunately I’m also a green that can
Do basic math and that means a lot of the greens just don’t invite me to their parties okay we’ve got lots of issues but let’s focus on the really The Big Three uh there’s an understanding in the world of environmental energy that you only put up wind turbines and place
Places where the wind blows fairly strongly there is not an understanding in the Green community that you only put up solar panels in places where the sun shines brightly so the location of these things really matters now I live at roughly 2300 MERS in the highlands above
What used to be called the Great American desert in Colorado that means that my solar panels generate seven times as much electricity as the same panels would in Berlin that means I’m in one of the world’s best solar zones and Berlin is in almost almost the world’s worst and
If you’re going to put up seven times as much paneling in order to generate the same amount of electricity you have now generated so much carbon by putting up those panels that you will never be able to generate enough electricity to pay down the carbon debt much less the
Economic debt it’s just not a good geography for that technology so that’s problem one most of the population of the world lives in a place that is much more similar to Berlin than Denver unfortunately uh number two if we are serious about doing the green transition in its current form with the current
Technologies that we have then we need more materials than we currently have and we have to be able to process them so in terms of volume we need 10 times as much nickel 18 times as much graphic probably three times as much copper and we need it all by
2030 we have never doubled the volume of any industrial material in human history if it’s something that we already had in use ever and we now need to do this and then some for 11 different materials that is not physically possible and then there’s a processing issue right now it depends varies wildly
Based on the material roughly 3/4 of the processing of these 11 different materials is done in either Russia or China we’re going to lose the Russia stuff in total because of economic breakdown and in my opinion we’re going to lose a lot of the Chinese stuff due to political
Breakdown simply taking silicon building that processing capacity somewhere outside of China can be done but it’s going to almost triple the price of silicon because the Chinese subsidize everything so all of our price metrics that we’ve done are wrong but the the real issue is availability oil we understand the
Economics and the geopolitics of the oil era it means you have to deal with a lot of different places that are kind of ugly but if we want to do the energy transition not only do we have to deal with a lot more places that are ugly
There’s not enough for everyone one of the great parts of globalization is the United States kept the world’s petroleum Market open for everyone we didn’t get involved in the Middle East because we thought it was fun we didn’t even get involved in the Middle East because we
Needed the crude we got our crude from North America we did it for Germany and France and Italy and Korea and Japan and even China we kept the world’s energy flowing because that was part of the globalization deal You