Should I Buy Silver or Gold? Which Performs Best In a Crisis? Mike Maloney & Ron Stoeferle

Download Ronnie’s latest chartbook at http://www.ingoldwetrust.report Explore the world of precious metals with Ronnie Stoeferle and Mike Maloney as they delve into the historical performance and potential future gains of gold and silver. In this insightful video, charts are presented to illustrate the correlation between real yields and gold prices, the historical outperformance of silver, and the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate pauses on gold’s trajectory. Gain valuable insights into investment strategies and trends in the precious metals market. Don’t miss this comprehensive analysis that aims to guide both seasoned and novice investors. Download the full report and chart books from In Gold We Trust for free to stay informed about the latest trends in the gold market.

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Precious metals have been some of the best investments of this century and I just don’t understand why such a small per why why 71% of all the precious metals all investors in the US don’t have any exposure whatsoever when it is not only the best performing asset of

This Century so far but it’s also the insurance that every nobody has an insurance policy uh it’s crazy and you know from my perspective nobody has an insurance policy and it seems like the house is on fire right Now hi I want to welcome everybody to part number three of Ronnie stofer’s great presentation on The Showdown so Ronnie how are you doing very good mike always good to see you it’s great seeing you so in part three here uh this starts out with uh performance since 2000 in various

Currencies uh we’ve seen this chart before but it’s always important to revisit this chart and look at the green versus the red I mean this is amazing and uh you know uh in most currencies it it’s the only the US dollar where you have so many uh red years all around the

World I mean you look at the average there were only three years with drops there it’s amazing so tell us about it well as you know it’s it’s it’s it’s just one of my favorite charts because you know there’s all the information on on one table and and so many people say

Well you gold hasn’t really performed well just look at this table and actually um we we we showed that on on 15th of November at this at at the conference since then actually it even got better but I think you know we’ve got a a c a compound annual growth rate

In dollar terms of 8.4% since the year 2000 um then in in in Japanese Yen terms you know look at the performance year to date it’s 24% I mean the Japanese Yen used to be you know one of the most important currencies out there 24% in one year

That’s you know that’s that’s that that that’s quite a devaluation against golden and there was a great quote by by my friend uh Shane Maguire he’s he’s a very very influential uh um Institutional Investor at the um at the teacher retirement system of Texas he said I don’t think the question really

Is what is gold worth but what are currencies not worth and as you can see on this chart they’re actually not worth too much and and I think that um if if you have a look at this chart you know you can see that in the in the in the in

The year you know starting in 2002 actually the momentum was was even more dramatic than we’re seeing at the moment so perhaps The Best Is Yet To Come so we years with 20 even 30% performance in the year so that might be you know in the future I’ve got two

Things to add my friend David Morgan uh you know silver it’s the Morgan report.com uh he uh is always says 80% of the move comes in the last 20% of the time but if you take this chart and you want it it it we shouldn’t be you said

We shouldn’t be asking uh uh you know how is Gold’s performance it’s it’s what is the Cur what are the currencies doing all you have to do is in your mind change all the green to red and the red to green and that’s what the currencies

Are doing yeah yeah this is an average loss in purchasing power of all of these currencies and you look at that last column and it’s devastating what is happening to all of the currencies so um yeah I I think this is an amazing chart and and you know I stopped doing all uh

Interviews and uh videos with uh other people and live appearances in 2018 so that I could knuckle down and write my book and uh I the the first um uh live appearance that I went to after that was Rebel capitalist live uh with gamon and

I took along a tube of Gold Eagles so it’s 20 ounces of gold and I passed it around and let everybody in the audience hold it and some people opened it and look at them and there was a I don’t know 400 people there or something like

That so they all got a chance to hold that tube I bought that tube in uh 2002 for $6,000 and it’s over 40 today it’s about $42,000 for that same tube that I bought for six and that chart that we were just looking at uh shows the performance of

That tube of Gold Eagles that I bought in late 2002 those numbers were very real for me I outperformed the stock market by a long shot and uh people think that gold is some crazy investment where precious metals have been some of the best investments of this century and

I just don’t understand why such a small per why why 71% of all the precious metals all investors in the US don’t have any exposure whatsoever when it is not only the best performing asset of this Century so far but it’s also the insurance that every nobody has an insurance policy uh

It’s crazy and you know from my perspective nobody has an insurance po policy and it seems like the house is on fire right now so uh what’s this chart and that’s that that basically fits perfectly to to to what you just said um Mike you know that that I think that you know

Especially uh you know the the the the the retail demand uh in in in emerging markets and and and also over here in Europe especially in in Germany is very much physical demand but then there’s also Western Financial investors and they Prim by the gold ETFs so so the

Gold the inflows and outflows into the ETF space are from my point of view a very good um sign for the sentiment that Western Financial investors have and I think it’s it’s it’s fascinating actually we’ve seen six consecutive quarters of outflows in 2023 we saw outflows of more than 200 tons of gold

And it’s also interesting there’s a huge discrepancy between the East and the West again so European and North American investors have sold more than 200 tons and then on the other hand Asian ETFs actually show inflows so this is kind of telling uh me what we discussed before that you know there’s

Asian and Emerging Markets investors appreciate gold much much more than we do in the Western World now you know just as late in the 1990s Tech bubble you know the the.com boom I think that the tech stocks Ai and you name it they have captured all the attention of

Western Financial investors but at some point this will be changing and I think that as soon as we see new all-time highs also in US dollar terms in the price of gold then I think this foro will kick in and if you have a look at this at the chart like 2004 until

2011 2012 actually we we saw inflows into ETFs over all those quarters so so I think this will be a very important uh additional driver for the gold market going forward yeah I want to point out something for the viewers here uh you know when we had the inflows uh from 200

Five roughly on this chart late 2004 uh all the way up you know the gold price RI normally Rises on the inflows and then you had those big outflows in uh 2013 and uh early 2014 and the gold price fell and uh but the gold price isn’t falling now we’ve had out big

Outflows and the gold price is just going sideways and bumping up bumping its head up I mean it’s up above 2,000 uh and uh so the strength that the gold price is showing in the face of these outflows and I just wonder what western investors could be thinking also that

All these Western investors you know you’re tracking ETF inflows and outflows they’re being fooled into accepting uh I it’s basically an IOU for gold it’s not real gold it’s it’s a share in a trust uh that is supposed to be backed by Holdings of gold and so it’s and then

The very fact that you can uh short the ETFs uh when somebody shorts uh something the broker will borrow shares out of anybody that has a margined trading account they can borrow your shares your long GLD say so you’ve got so many shares The Brokerage house comes and they borrow

Some of them and they loan them to somebody else at you know at interest so The Brokerage company is making a profit and that other person sells them into the market now you think you own those ounces and so does so somebody else there’s two people owning the same ounce

Uh it is another fractional Reserve scheme in a game of musical chairs uh and so I mean I stay as far away from these things as I can I I just really like physical gold and silver hi I just wanted to take a moment and thank you for subscribing and mention that if

You’d like to help our Channel please consider my company goldsilver.com the next time you buy precious metals we’re one of the most trusted names in the industry our prices are sharp delivery is fast and we have an insiders program where you find out exactly what I’m doing with my own Investments thanks for

Making goldsilver.com your dealer and now back to the video uh so uh any other comments on this chart and how it sort of reveals what’s going on with the public no I I I think it’s it’s just just you know makes me pretty relaxed about the price of gold um that

That actually we’re trading so close to New all-time highs and still people couldn’t care less about it and you know Western Financial investors are actually selling it and I think that’s that that shows me there enormous amount of potential for further purchases and and and actually you know every new alltime

High should be bought you know um because that’s actually the the way when there’s no resistances anymore and I think you is this resistance we’re in we’re in for a slingshot move I think it’s gonna be something big and it’s going to be something powerful uh so the next chart uh mind

The gap uh this uh is I I suppose revealing tell me what this is and what it means to you yeah that that’s one of my favorite charts Mike it it shows the the the tips or the uh um um the inflation protect the bonds um and the price of gold um

And the tips they’re um they’re inverted um to to um to make the case better V visually but what you can see on this chart there always has been a very very tight correlation between the 10year tips and the price of gold so so um I an

Amazing correlation I this 90% it’s over 90% this is something like look at this diverence now um it has completely broken down so real yields actually uh they have moved up by by roughly 350 basis points in the last 18 month so actually according let’s say to to the

Old gold market Playbook given where real rates in real interest rates are the price of gold should be hundreds of dollars lower but it is not so so I think if you if we look at the time when the Gap started to widen it actually started with the Ukraine war which led

To these uh high purchases of of emerging uh markets central banks but I think it’s also telling us that the market doesn’t really believe in the official inflation numbers um and I think it’s all also telling us that perhaps there’s some some some some evidence for dollarization or de

Euroization but it is probably not going into the Remi or the rupes but rather into gold and I think therefore this is a very very powerful uh chart that we’re that we’re showing here wow uh that is that’s uh amazing uh it’s it’s quite an

Insight that uh you know it was such a uh reliable super high correlation uh tracker of uh you know confirming that the gold price was pretty much where it should have been uh in the economy and then suddenly this huge Divergence signaling that um people aren’t trusting

The uh you know what the central banks are doing the numbers coming out of the government uh that this is the the market is saying something different than the government and the central banks are saying so uh silver tell us about yeah I mean you know if you talk

About silver you also have to talk about uh if you talk about gold you also have to talk about silver um and you know I I I like silver a lot um but it is like this you know wild and and and unpredictable little brother or little cousin

Um and and you can see on this chart actually how um how how gold performs in Gold bull markets and silver performs in silver bull market and most of the times um they are basically uh uh you know similar time periods and you can see on

This chart actually you know most of the time silver tends to outperform the price of gold so if you want to have more leverage um um uh in the precious metal space silver is is probably a good idea but as I’ve said previously if we’re expecting a recession uh uh especially a hard

Landing then it might be a little bit too early for for silver yet because um silver obviously is not only um a monetary metal but also to some degree roughly 50% um an industrial metal and usually during recessions this industrial demand tends to weaken and this affects the silver price but I

Think you know uh once gold really picks up momentum at some point people will say well actually I need a little bit more you know a little bit more uh volatility a little bit more momentum and then I think people will start investing into the mining space which

Obviously has a leverage on a on a rising gold price but also um they will start investing in silver and silver mining equities but as I’ve said it’s volatile it’s it’s a little bit more risky but it could get uh really really exciting in the silver space my uh basic

Plan that I started back in the you know in 2002 uh was physical accumulation as my uh base and my core position and um then uh when I discovered silver in 2003 and I started developing a strategy and I sort of let the gold silver ratio

Dictate what I buy if it’s very high and silver is undervalued compared to Gold I don’t it it it has protected me a couple of times uh from buying the wrong metal there are times when I wanted to buy gold so bad but silver was so undervalued compared to Gold that I

Bought silver I mean during the covid crash uh the ratio went to 120 so silver was only 120th the value of gold each ounce and I wanted to buy gold because when there’s all of this crisis happening when there’s this fear and pressure you want to run toward gold but uh the gold

Silver ratio kept me from buying gold and I bought only silver during that period of time conversely back in 2011 when silver had been just on this big tear and uh the ratio dropped to 30 so silver had uh at that point uh under 50

I think I was only buying gold at that point uh so I I sort of let the gold silver ratio uh dictate uh what I’m I’m uh doing and you said something else here that I really wanted to comment on but I can’t remember uh what it was um

And uh uh the oh hard Landing okay uh the industrial demand going away in a recession uh that is absolutely true so if we just have another Garden variety recession that will be fine but the real driver for silver is going to be monetary demand one day yes if there is

A currency if if the next big crisis is a hard landing and a recession but then if it develops into a currency crisis what you’ve got going on uh there will be less demand for indust industrial demand for silver that will go away and what is it about 60% of all Sil silver

That’s mined uh ends up being used in in in industry is that about yeah yeah right and so 60% of the demand vanishes and so uh that means the price could fall uh and but most people don’t realize that about uh 60% of uh silver Supply comes as a byproduct from mining

Base Metals so if you’re not building as many homes in China you’re not going to be using all of the copper uh that that is uh used for wiring and plumbing and silver was a byproduct of that and goes onto the market it’s a big huge portion

Of the supply so zinc for uh castings for automotive there’s less cars being made during a recession and so all of this Supply also goes away and then you put a currency crisis when everybody wants it when 60% of the supply has vanished and so I truly see silver in

Triple digits uh one day and probably not that far in the future now I’ve been saying triple digits for a long time the the prediction of uh and I’m not actually making a prediction this is the way I feel for me because I’m heavily invested in silver so uh I do believe

That you’re going to see Supply because of that industrial demand yes there will be less demand and at first the price of silver will fall uh and potentially uh but then in a crisis especially you know in uh 1971 gold was 35 and silver was a buck 67 or

Something like that I can’t remember what it was but uh uh gold and silver took off in the 70s but gold really outshined silver until gold got to about 400 bucks an ounce in late 1979 and and at that was the point in late 79 when it was the the that bold

Market was developing into a panic and there were uh lines around the block at coin shops all across North America I don’t know what was happening in Europe or not but um uh it truly was developing into sort of a panic and uh uh gold had

Been 35 bucks an ounce now the average income in the United States was $110,000 a little under $10,000 in 1980 and so a guy goes into the bank and if he’s you know um not a real high income earner and in his 50s or 60s he goes into the

Bank uh pulls out 500 bucks because you know he only has a few thousand dollars in savings and uh gets in line at a coin shop and he gets in there and he goes I want to buy gold too they drop one coin

In his hand and he goes oh is that all I can get it was 35 bucks now it’s 400 just eight and a half years later and that’s when that and and you know Jeff Christian uh of uh of yeah CPM group um confirmed this when

I interviewed him back in 200 five or six that it was really it wasn’t the Hunt Brothers or some other Factor it was really the public changing their preference from gold to Silver because gold had already had such a run and it had already gotten so expensive and

Silver had sort of been left behind and there isn’t there’s no other commodity on earth that is selling at a discount to its 1980 price today and silver still has not surpassed its 1980 high so I just I I see this I see demand going away um uh I’m sorry Supply going away

When monetary demand picks up it it takes a currency crisis a real uh you know where people are seeking the safe haven of the the met two metals that have been money for thousands of years you know this is uh so anyway uh is there is this the last chart in this

Series I think there’s one more right okay oh yes yeah so tell us about this one yeah that’s that’s actually one of my very favorite ones because you know Mike I think we we we we both agree that a a chart should be understood very

Quickly um and I think the message of of of this chart is very simple so once the Federal Reserve hits the pause button usually it re it leads to rate Cuts so you know we we have seen only very very few instances where they hit the pause button and then actually started raising

Interest rates later on again so from my point of view it’s it’s it’s it’s Crystal Clear interest rates will fall they have to fall and I think that the price of gold is anticipating those rates Cuts it’s as easy as that might now we analyed what gold actually did in

The last three previous instances um when the FED started pausing interest rate uh uh um um campaigns and actually it you know it shows that gold did tremendously well gold was up 66% then afterwards 189% and then 50% plus so actually this tells me that now you know we’re starting at roughly

2000s um at interest rates level that will probably go down significantly over the next couple of years so this tells me The Best Is Yet To Come For Gold yes uh so for everybody you know the red circles is where they pause the interest rates and then that green area is the

Gold rise before gold sort of Peters out and goes sideways for a while or Falls so uh the green area is and we’ve The Best Is Yet To Come I mean uh we just started this next big up legging gold according to this chart the rate pause is the trigger and then shortly

Thereafter gold starts its big rise I want to thank you very much Ronnie for presenting all of this this was a great presentation that you put together and I want to remind everybody to go to inold we trust. report and download uh incrementum a AG’s the inold

Trust report uh which has an accompany chart book and you you’ve got two versions of it right you’ve got the full version and then sort of a a uh the executive brief right yes so there’s the full version 400 Pages uh always published um in May um then um there’s a

Compact version roughly 25 pages but then we also do as we also love charts like you Mike we do monthly chart books the so-called Gold Compass then we do two special Tru books and then we’ve got you know special Publications like our gold beer ratio we’ve got the gold

IPhone ratio and then there’s we’re working on something new because I’m a big skier we actually crunched to numbers um you know um because those um ski passes yeah for for the lifts they’re getting more and more expensive so we researched how it actually um your your purchasing power in ski resorts

Actually developed uh owning some gold and you know um we haven’t published yet but I think the message is Crystal Clear um it protected your purchasing power pretty well um when you’re a skier and you’re saving in Gold so this is kind of the the range of our Publications it’s

All available for free as we’ve got premium partners that support us that really want to um that that really enjoy the the you know the sober and um also to some degree entertaining um way that we analyze the gold market and yeah you can download everything totally for free the new

Mandarin edition of the inold with trust report will be published next week excellent well I want to thank you so much for this great presentation and Analysis and uh we’ll see you in the next video that we do we should have Ronnie back in about a month so thanks

Ron my thank you very much always a pleasure take care my friend