This Speculator’s Top 2023 Pick Soared 87%! This Is His Top Trade for 2024

Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, interviews Lobo Tiggre, Editor of The Independent Speculator, who breaks down his correct call for 2023, which is up 87% year-to-date. He gives his 2024 outlook on the recession, the Federal Reserve, uranium, and other metals. Tiggre also reveals his “highest conviction call” for 2024.

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0:00 – Intro
02:08 – This Trade Is Up 87% YTD
06:35 – 2024 Outlook on Uranium
10:49 – Macro, Fed, Recession
21:17 – Wall Street’s Outlook
25:20 – Fed Expectations
27:17 – Industrial Metals
30:53 – Geopolitics
35:46 – Lobo Tiggre’s “Highest Conviction Call” for 2024

#metals #2024outlook #economy #gold #uranium
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Kco news Outlook 2024 is brought to you by I trust Capital buy and sell crypto gold and silver with your IRA hello I’m Michelle mccy thank you for joining us uranium was one of the best performing Commodities in 2023 it’s wrapping up the year with a gain of

87% that’s according to Nyx futes tracking physical Market contracts my next guest was so confident that uranium would outperform this year that going into 2023 it was his investment position of highest conviction and he was right he was also correct in his call that gold will hit a new all-time high this

Year so what can we expect for next year well here to discuss if there’s more upside in the uranium trade give us his outlook for gold his macro forecast and his investment thesis of highest conviction for 2024 is lobo Tigre Lobo is a renowned Speculator and resource investor he’s

The editor of the independent Speculator with Decades of experience in the mining sector including as a senior investment strategist at casc research and he’s also a view of favorite here on Kito very good to have you back with us Lobo well always happy to see you Michelle

And happy to share with the Kito audience we’ll we’ll try to hit another one out of the ballpark for you guys well let’s see you were definitely one of our most accurate guests of 2023 so it’s a fitting way to have you as our final guest of the year and hear what

You have to say about 2024 but let’s kick off with your correct call on your ranium and yes you were 100% spot on with this I always like to give credit where credit is Du and call out people when they’re wrong but you were 100% correct on this one you forecasted more

Gains for uranium and we saw that indeed with prices rising ing to the so-called incentive price of around 70 to $80 a pound and as we wrap up the year uranium is trading above $9 prices at the highest level in 15 years and as we said

Up around 87% year to date so break this down what were the main factors driving the uranium trade here well you set it up in a couple very important things and what were the main factors you know that’s no longer necessarily the main factors going forward and you also pointed out that

We’ve reached the incentive price level that’s really important so game changed and but let me be very clear here I am not bearish on uranium it might sound in a moment like I am I’m trying to be realistic though I’m not um I’m not changing my stance but here’s the thing

So to answer Michelle’s question you know why was I why was it my highest conviction trade as she asked me for a year ago because a the fundamentals were were there they’d been there for a while the technicals were there that was new we had Sprout hoovering up to cheap

Pounds but there were two main drivers that one that I was looking for and the other that my friend Rick Ru was looking for Rick was looking for Japanese reactor restarts and that was starting I was looking for long-term contracts starting to be signed that hadn’t really

Happened yet but it but the previous ones had pretty much run out so it the writing was on the wall it kind of had to happen and I was right Rick was right and look where uranium is gone so that was I think a relatively easy call and

The Beautiful part of this and I’ll come back to this later for 2024 the beautiful part of this was that uranium had spiked in 2021 and then it had pulled back and there was a lot of whining and complaining about uranium not doing anything and what that created

Was a discrepancy between price and value you know you had the shares in particular the stocks many of them were on sale while as I say the rting looked on the wall was my highest conviction trade for 2023 this absent a major nuclear incident the price had to go up

So that paid out in Spades um if you picked the right stocks you made a bundle of money if you didn’t make a bundle of money on uranium hitting 15 years High I’m I’m sorry but you really need to ask yourself some questions about your stock selection because you

The better companies did respond now looking forward to 2024 I said I’m not a bear I remain very bullish actually very long term I think this is a decade’s bull to run ahead in uranium um but we have a couple things one is we’ve reached the incentive price

And that alone argues for caution right high prices cure high prices so we’re at the price level that will incent people to start building mins that that’s happening this isn’t an if or a when this is a happening now thing the lowest cost producers are ramping production

Back up again moth Bell production is being brought back online now and the lowest cost projects new mines are being built there so so the market is responding now I actually don’t think this lwh hanging fruit is enough to satisfy the market but there’s a new source of secondary Supply and that’s

All these people not spra because they’re by their corporate structure they’re not allowed to resell those pounds but many of the other institutions and particularly mining companies that bought uranium when it was cheap they’re not only allowed to sell it when it’s not so cheap um they’re supposed to if you’re a uranium

Company that bought uranium at $30 a pound to finance your construction you know now it’s $90 a pound yeah you’re supposed to sell it rather than dilute your shareholders issuing more shares you sell that uranium inventory you build your mind so I’m I’m not saying therefore uranium is going down please

Be hear me clearly I’m just saying there’s a question mark here that wasn’t there before right we don’t know nobody knows how many of this how much of this new secondary Supply might hit the market at these prices now above incentive level so my Outlook is proceed

With caution you know don’t bet the farm on uranium going to the Moon in 2024 but after we sort this out after we see how the balance remains in 2024 I’m long-term very bullish on uranium going forward okay well to your point the equity side of the TR

Was really uh only one with upside especially if you chose the big players you’ve got the uranium miners CCO that was up 91% year to date uranium energy core up 68% year to date those uranium ETFs the easy way to play This Global X uranium up 45% year to date vanac up

35.6% sprot which we discussed Sprout uranium minus ETF up over 50% year to date so you’re saying you still see room for the upside in 2024 with these big names but just nothing as dramatic as as these double digigit kind of appreciations not you’re not seeing a

Selloff necessarily in these big I’m not seeing a selloff and if there was a selloff let’s say the broader markets you know go into a major correction or something and the baby gets thrown out with a bath water I think that’d be a fantastic opportunity for anybody who missed

2023 should we be so lucky as to see a sell off absent again a major nuclear incident you know I I think that would absolutely be a buy with both hands kind of opportunity but no what I’m saying is I expect well at at 70 or $80 I would have

Expected to reach where we’re at now and so that makes me it makes it hard for me to say I’m I’m looking from significantly higher prices in 2024 I’m looking for more or less sideways okay you know would be the the it’s not a prediction that’s just the most likely

Outcome it seems to me now now markets aren’t always rational right they they get overbought they get oversold that’s how a Speculator makes his or her money right there’s a difference between price and value so the you know it it’s kept going up and it could just become a

Flavor of the day and by the way one of the things that’s really different now than in past times when the uranium fundamentals were so bullish and even the technicals were positive is that the narrative has changed when even Greta thurberg says that Germany should have left its nuclear reactor running right

When things like that are happening when the Biden Administration is pushing for billions billions not you know you know to to support Advanced nuclear and so on yeah there is a potential here for for the environmental climate change Panic to really create a flavor of the day stamped into uranium now again that’s

Not a prediction I can’t promise that will happen but that that could literally happen next month I don’t know you know nuclear energy and uranium is one of those few issues that does actually have bipartisan support here in the United States which is arguably more divided than ever before uh I certainly

Don’t like to sign to Greta on anything but yeah she also seems to be a fan of this so there is Broad appeal here in terms of the demand Outlook long-term demand Outlook not necessarily 2024 but we know that the world nuclear Association I granted this is the world

Nuclear Association but they’re saying in the report that demand for uranium in nuclear reactors expected to climb by at least 28% by 2030 nearly double that by 2040 so you’re saying a sideways trade for 2024 all things being equal and we’ll get into the overall macro picture

Of uh where you see things going with the markets at large things being sideways for 20124 but still long-term very bullish on this right and and caveat is there other things being equal and usually they’re not like who knows markets can Kur fuffle but but no I’m

Not currently betting the I can I can say categorically I have a shopping list and right now it has one Gold stock and one silver stock on it no uranium and it’s not because I’m bearish on uranium it’s actually because I bought all the uranium stocks I wanted uh including

Recently there was one that got away from me that I got a second shot at um and it just you know the idea is to buy low sell high and I’m I’m long and I’m willing to wait for the next opportunity to buy low okay well as we said that was your

Trade position of highest conviction for 2023 served you well and we will get your position of highest conviction for 20124 but we’re going to get to that before we go there let’s zoom out and get your big macro Outlook because you were right on uranium and on gold and

Again we will get to gold but you will not correct Lobo in your call that we will see a recession by the end of 2023 at least one by any technical measure of any formal definition of a recession but you’re also not correct in what you

Expected the fed you did think that the FED would probably be cutting by this point and and I’m quoting you to you you said that there’ll be pain there’ll be blood in the streets forcing the FED to cut now we didn’t see that at least so

Far and at least according to the data so what do you think happened there well the blood in the street scenario would have been that the FED broke something else that was you know I it was very difficult for me to see this record rate of tightening not causing

More breakage in the economy than we saw three midsize Banks is really just chump change for the level of yeah the three three of the largest US bank failures in history and yeah but you know but it wasn’t it wasn’t too big to fail failing

Right and it wasn’t Broad it was it was pretty focused and and the end it was controlled so yeah so I was I was wrong about that I expected something to break I’ve been thinking about this why was I wrong and we don’t need to go too far down that

Rabbit hole but I will say and this and this is material though to the to the Outlook going forward is that I underestimated the degree to which the record low interest rates that we had for so long would in insulate not just big corporates that financed at low level but households that refinanced

Their homes at low mortgage rates and maybe even withdrew some Equity so they had more cash on hand so I I think that’s a big part of what happened I also think that the labor hoarding the post lockdown labor hoarding has distorted the labor market and and supported the consumer more than other

You know other things being equal that wouldn’t have happened um so I’m not just saying labor hoarding you mean companies reluctant to let people go what do you mean yes because it was so difficult to hire people during and after the pandemic and still the jolts numbers are still at historically high

Levels so nobody wants to fire people if they can all at all avoid it right um I’ll come back to that but but but where I’m where I’m going with this though is that if it’s true that that’s a distortion well when that Distortion gets wrinkled out that’s a problem and I

Think that that what what matters to me looking forward is not just to make an excuse if I’m right if these are the reasons I think it also means that the people on the soft Landing side or the no Landing side are underestimating the danger here because that only lasts for

So long if you know if you fin if you’re a corporate you finance for two or three years at low interest rates well you know that started in 2020 and now we’re looking at 2024 so these these chickens will come home to roost I think soon so

My my them thesis My overall thesis Michelle is that I may have been wrong not May particularly on the particular call undeniable recession by the end of 2023 was wrong okay it is deniable at this point um but I think that the reasons why I saw that are if anything more in

Play now than before and we’re starting to see signs of things breaking I mentioned that we would come back to the jolts numbers that jolts number is falling off a cliff and every time it’s done that in the past now it’s okay granted it’s starting from a high level

But high level from a pandemic lockdown not from a normal level so every time we’ve seen that fall off in the past it’s been recessionary and the other really screaming alarm Bell is the unemployment rate this is actually a Jeff gunlock thing and when that starts curving up

And I think he looks at 60 days and 30 days when those lines start Crossing and it starts curving up the the long-term unemployment rate curves up leading into a recession and that is exactly what it’s doing now well so Double Down Michelle I’m going to say that that

We’re still going to see that recession I might have missed it by a quarter or two but the fundamental reality hasn’t changed the logic hasn’t changed the investment implications haven’t changed look loo according to the official numbers and these are government numbers which are also obviously fueled by all of this stimulus

That we’ve had but the final GDP numbers we got this week uh showed that the US economy was at 4.9% growth of the in the third quarter 2.1% in the second quarter 2% in the first quarter and as for job growth that accelerated in November non-farm payrolls increased by 199,000

Jobs in November on employment rate dropping to 3.7% and at the same time inflation uh running at 3.1% in the 12 months through November I hear you I hear you Michelle and again this is the government data it feels very different to me when I’m at the grocery store I

Can tell you that as a Libertarian type I can just say oh well they’re lying the numbers are fudged but that’s not useful to me as an investor because whether I believe in those numbers or not it’s what Comics Traders look at and they’re the ones whose trades we mistakenly

Refer to as the price of gold right and the markets will respond to these numbers so it’s it’s just not very useful to say that they’re not real okay it’s maybe long-term useful to keep that in mind that they’re not real but these are the numbers that market participants

Act on so we need to look at them anyway and I’m not denying the numbers you just recited right but let let me give you an extreme example and this may sound reductive at absurdum and maybe too extreme but it’s it’s conceptual stick with me for just a

Moment the uh I don’t remember if it was Democratic or People’s Republic but one of those things of campuchia in Cambodia back in the day when when popot became the Communist dictator of Cambodia he wrote a Constitution and it said in the Constitution there is no unemployment in

Cambodia it’s not this is our goal it’s it’s written in there there is none yeah so what do they do if anybody wasn’t working they put them out in the rice patties they’ they’ emptied out the hospitals they emptied out universities they sent everybody to work and guess

What there was Full Employment but that didn’t mean they had a strong economy so I get that this is an extreme case but I’m just saying it’s a mistake to look at some of these numbers whether the numbers are accurate or not it’s a mistake we rolling almost done we hear about

Rolling recession in in Freight and transportation manufacturing recession earnings recessions there was certainly a lot of weakness in the US economy and the main thing people point at is the laborer consumer and I’m saying that that is even if it’s accurate the numbers it’s misleading in terms of how

Strong the economy was okay your turn okay well look again I’m just giving the data and sometimes the data and the facts don’t actually resonate with how things actually feel on on a day-to-day transactional basis I mean you know certainly when it comes to things like inflation an overall sentiment but again

You know the the overall sentiment going into this year was for there to be a market selloff we’ve seen the contrary U the the S&P 500 almost breaking a new record the dowo has the NASDAQ is is up I believe of 45% here to date and year-over AE the S&P 500 recorded an

Earnings per share growth rate of 13.9% uh so increasingly significantly from 4.3% in the second quarter and 2.6% in the first quarter and 63% of S&P 500 companies surpassed Revenue expectations versus S&P Capital estimates so again it’s even if you look at at the market markets which many have been saying are

Inflated and sentiment driven still seems to be pretty solid for some reason or another I hear you I I I’ll take the push back that’s fine okay so which brings me to the way the way you phrase the question is interesting you know we we talk about how the markets are not

Necessarily the real economy and if you talk to people on the street until the most recent consumer sentiment numbers did turn up I watch these two but they have actually been uh turning down until the latest numbers and if you talk to people on the street

At least you know I I talk to people here in Puerto Rico or we we I hear from my readers around the world and around the United States and basically nobody is feeling this like these Rosy numbers I mean look at look at even my intellectual opposites the champions of

Bomic they keep getting on mainstream Financial media and whining because the average American isn’t buying Biden they don’t feel it so I I think that’s material it’s not just that they’re silly and they you know they should believe Biden when he talks about how great the US economy is I mean they’re

There on the streets they’re experiencing the reality and the reality is their quality of life is in danger things have gotten more expensive that’s the reality and saying saying that inflation is down it makes it sound like prices are down that’s not it’s the rate of increase that’s down completely

Different so the reality is I think the reality belies those numbers the market is not the real economy but but it does matter what you said because you know people who bought Nvidia made more money than people who bought gold stocks in 2023 I I’m not denying that

That’s the real thing that’s what happened now mind you I never told anybody to short Nvidia you know I’m a medals in mining due diligence guy and that’s we’re not holding you responsible for NVIDIA don’t worry l we know know about your point but your

Point is taken your point is taken and I agree things you know you hear the data yes it’s accurate and yet it doesn’t quite match up with with sentiment on the ground and it does seem as though is an an Ever growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street bringing it

Back to Wall Street I want to get your thoughts on what we are hearing from some of the big Banks which by the way got it very very wrong going into 20 23 as well um going into 2024 The Narrative is for a soft Landing combined with a

Pivot by the Federal Reserve potentially as early as March of 2024 we’ve got both Goldman and JP Morgan seeing us real GDP at around 2% in 2024 avoiding a recession then clearly Morgan Stanley and Bank of America see it at around 1% so big players saying no recession soft

Landing what is your outlook then I mean are these guys wrong again or is this going to be a recession but as felt quite different data right again if if I’m right that the the real economy was much weaker in 2023 then the official statistics and I’m not even saying the

Official statistics are wrong but but maybe they’re the wrong statistics to even look at if there’s something to that then maybe the calls for 2023 were not actually incorrect um going looking forward to 2024 it’s not just the banks I mean I was really struck by FedEx you know because FedEx

It’s not just that company it’s a company that feeds and touches and helps and connects all the other companies so FedEx’s gloomy Outlook and then many of the big retailers with their you know uh gloomier ear outlooks there’s there’s a lot it’s some I wouldn’t say it’s unanimity but but the plurality is

Certainly the mainstream view is actually Forest S Landing now here’s the thing thing soft Landing is still a landing soft Landing does not mean no recession it means okay well it’ll be a mild recession it won’t be so bad if it’s a landing at all of any kind it means you’re coming

Down so the majority view is still for recession so the major the majority agrees with me just I’m a little bit more extreme not a little bit I’m more extreme I think it’ll be a much harder Landing um yeah it does it does refer to an economic slowdown of of source either

Way a slow down is uh in any definition of soft landing slow which fits the stagflation thing here’s a here’s here’s another thing is that people talk about so L stagflation is still is still your call for 2024 stagflation as in higher inflation slower growth yes and this is

Another thing that I think is deceptive or misleading on Team Soft landing’s part they they like I think deliberately to try to convey the idea that decreasing inflation is actually def decreasing prices only Biden actually said that and you know maybe he was half asleep at the time but I think other

People give that impression and I think it’s you know it’s dishonest uh but the the other thing though is you know this idea that you know we’re already there that the FED has won and if you look at you know if you if you look at some sort of Super Hyper

Duper core and you throw everything that people actually use well hey we’re already at 2% but these mental gymnastics it’s that’s just not real you look at CPI or pce and you look at the core numbers we’re still well above the fed’s target we’re still on the high end

Of the range that we’ve been since the vulker era for these numbers so the job is not done Team Soft Landing is out there saying oh we won we won you know happy days are coming soon it’s not true I mean it’s just manifestly numerically

Not true um so if if the FED still has more work work to do and we’re already putting rate cuts on the year for 2024 to me that adds up to we’re going to allow inflation to remain high so if the mainstream view is right never mind

My harder core view but if the mainstream view of is right of a mild recession coupled with higher inflation that’s stagflation right so what then are your expectations for the fed the general consensus is for three Cuts next year that’s at least based on the Dot Plot expectations where where do you see

The FED next year when do you think we can expect the first cut and how aggressive do you think the FED could be with its rate Cuts so other things being equal I think the market is like the the three dots or the three cuts are per the

Dots the the bond market last I saw was implying like six cuts and and soon like in March starting in March I think other things being equal that’s very optimistic unless the FED breaks something I don’t think they’re going to start until the latter part of the

Year um and I was just making the case that the job is not done yet I think they’re aware of that and they’re also aware of you know the softening the labor market these things are starting to turn so they’re still trying to thread the needle here but I don’t think

They’re in any hurry to cut it all and now of course you know one fed Whisperer according to another you know who knows nobody knows what’s going to happen right but for what it’s worth other things being equal I think we might get the three rate Cuts then the Dot Plot In

The second half of 2024 I still think it’s likely though that the FED does break something else that things come unglued before that and the six rate Cuts in you know priced into the markets that might be right but it will imply bad things happening and

So the FED would then be forced to bring it forward sooner so if we see six Cuts I I think we’ll start seeing them happen sooner not second half and again the L of things being equal that’s a very you know big part of this equation which we

Get into and you know that obviously brings into things uh into play like other geopolitical considerations and and the FED not breaking anything sooner as you say but before we get into that I do want to bring in again credit where credit is due your correct call to stay

Away from Industrial Metals in 2023 because again even though you know things according to the data that we showed seemed to show quite a robust economy it wasn’t reflected in Industrial Metals which many of which are usually a barometer for economic growth and well-being certainly copper

Is uh and you included copper in your list of metals to avoid in 2023 copper platinum and padium and nickel were on the list so copper is up 1.8% year to date a platinum down 62% Palladium down 38% year to date and nickel which you very vocally against down

44.7% year to date so safe to say if you think your the recession is still ahead of us in 2024 you’re still saying stay away from Industrial Metals very safe to say and it’s interesting I gotta I got to be honest here okay I was right about

These things but was I right for the wrong reasons so if you know if I I’m the reason for that is Industrial Minerals not just the minerals they all get whacked ahead of a recession when when people start saying oh my gosh we’re going into recession they all sell

Off so that was the reason why I said that and as we’ve just been discussing if if I was wrong there was no recession in 2023 okay great I was right but it was by accident right I was wrong in my reasons so I don’t know how much credit

I deserve for that on the other hand if I’m right and I’m saying okay officially there’s no recession by GDP measure or labor market measure there’s no but the reality on the street for the you know the average Joe in the United States was a recession well then I wasn’t wrong so

You know we we’ll have to see and my Outlook is definitely very much the same I’m I’m extremely bullish on copper like uranium for for decades going forward but I wouldn’t buy a copper stock now until I’m sure the recession has done its worst and I’m very bullish on oil

For similar reasons but it it has the added oomph of being so Politically Incorrect that the industry is being starved of capital and that just turbocharges the prices ironically the stop oil crowd is going to send oil prices higher right just to the gree that they’re successful they will actually

Make money for those evil scum of the earth uh you know resources speculators like me who buy oil stocks so I’m I am keenly chomping at the bit to buy uh more oil into my portfolio but not until I’m sure the recession has done its

Worst and and by the way just one more thing on this let’s say I’m wrong there’s no hard Landing teamsoft Landing or no Landing is right we go off to Happy Days it’s not like oil’s going to jump to 200 bucks a barrel next month if

I’m wrong we’ll have time to see that I’m wrong I’ll have time to start buying copper stocks and oil stocks and other things that I’m bearish on over the long term and there’ll still be plenty of money to be made I don’t have to time this puppy my my specific guidance for my

Readers is I want to be sure the recession has done its worst now if that worst is already behind us and it doesn’t get any worse then you know that’s there’s still time to make money going forward is what I’m saying right uh and again the oil trade

Comes in to play when you also look at potential geopolitical considerations here we do have potential flash points of conflicts around around the world certainly in the Middle East so far the conflict there seems to have been largely contained to between Israel and Hamas Israel and Gaza but there’s always

The danger that it could spill over that uh other Iranian back terrorist proxies could be more aggressive than they have been already we know that the uh hisbah has still been firing Rockets into the North of Israel although relatively backing off considering how much that could escalate and we know that houti

Rebels and other Iranian backed proxy have been trying to disrupt things in in the Red Sea and several American bases in the region have been attacked about 103 attacks to date on various American Targets in the Middle East at large so there’s always the issue that that could escalate that’s just one geopolitical

Flash point we’ve of course also got the Russian Ukraine war almost into its second year that also has implications for it certainly did in the beginning of the conflict there and the the China Taiwan angle is still hovering above us with President XI recently saying that the reunification with China and Taiwan

Is inevitable now Loba you have interestingly enough said that you see geopolitics as a distraction so explain what you mean by that well just think of your list of scary things that you talked about and they’re all real I’m not denying you know what’s happening in the world and

Certainly not the human tragedy there it’s it’s funny you see these Wall Street Talking Heads say oh you know the TB in tragedy but here’s how we make money um you know these are terrible things and they could you know any one of these things that you just just

Mentioned could result in World War II like that that is a possibility but these are very much if not when questions and nobody wants that to happen I think not even Putin wants that to happen and so any headline out there that says could you know this could

Could result in World War III this could send oil to $200 a barrel this could do this could do that well could you know you can never prove that wrong you it could it might not um so I think these I think there’s a lot of fear monging fear

Mongering out there on this subject and I’m not seeing the world as a safer place and I think that’s part of why gold has held on so well for the last few years is you know that people are starting to feel a need for a hedge and

That’s what gold is for that’s great but you know there have been a lot of predictions of Doom and Gloom and we’re slouching towards World War III and keeps not happening and the reason why I call it a distraction is because yes when news breaks you know we saw oil

Spike when the Israel Hamas conflict broke out and then it settled back down I mean it’s dropped below 70 bucks a barrel since then when Russia invaded Ukraine again right we saw oil Spike again we saw Gold Spike and we saw the markets move and then then revert to Trend

Afterwards so unless one of the things actually does turn into war War 3 or or you know if if not Armageddon then at least a major global conflict that actually does change the economy then they’re temporary not to say transitory you know it’s a flash in the pan every

One of these has gone away Michelle every one of these has reverted to Trend afterwards that you the examples that you gave well Taiwan hasn’t had happen yet but the other way I like to put this is okay I mean these things are terrible especially for the participants but for

Investors in Western Europe or the us or even China at this moment they don’t change our existence Our Lives you know maybe they fiddle with Energy prices the the global economy is De globalizing that makes things more expensive but that’s a slow multi-decade process it doesn’t change my investment decision

Today which stock am I buying today and even the gulf Wars which were major US boots on the ground engagements even those ended up having temporary impacts on the markets so what I’m saying is not that these things are relevant not important they’re part of global trends

That I think do matter but unless they escalate to something even beyond the scale of the gulf Wars I don’t think they themselves will deliver for shareholders uh the way that some of these scary headlines suggest all right uh and then arguably we have much bigger problems if things

Do really explode to that World War II scale so you’re saying if that happens I’m not worried about my stocks I want to know where my physical stash is right well speaking of you know your physical stash let’s talk about gold because some of those geopolitical concerns did help

Push the price gold higher and as you said it would uh it hit a new record high this year of above 2 ,100 per ounce analysts are expecting more gains in 2024 gold is up uh about 133% year to date and the big date for gold was

December 3rd spot prices hit that new record high of exactly $2,489 an ounce so this brings me to your outlook on gold which I believe also happens to be your position of highest conver ition in 2024 so what is lobo tigra’s outlook for gold yeah

Saving the best for last so I think it’s good that we had this conversation through the theories and the wise and wherefores first and it’s particularly important that we talked about the uranium thing first because if if the headline here is gold bug is bullish on gold and that’s not very exciting I

Think it matters that last year I was willing to say that it was the other yellow metal that was my highest conviction trade so I’m not you know a broken clock that just happens to be right sometimes if I’m saying that my highest conviction trade for 2024 is gold and

Here are the reasons why then I hope maybe you’ll listen to me a little bit more than somebody who’s always bullish on gold every year no matter what happens that having been said Michelle I got I got you’re very kind to give an old wolf credit we due but the reasons

For my call on an on an all-time nominal High you know not a real high a nominal high in Gold uh was the recession that was that undeniable session that didn’t happen or at least not undeniably didn’t happen so if you’re in the camp that Lobo got

It wrong you know there was no undeniable recession then my reasons for making that call were wrong and the call is really an accident so you shouldn’t give me credit for it if if the view that is that I was right but it was masked or hidden or whatever it was qu I

Deniable well then that gives more Credence to My Views going forward so I’ll leave that to the audience to decide which which Camp you’re in but I will tell you Michelle that I feel I just I felt extraordinarily confident about that call in the last year for uranium in

2023 absent a major nuclear incident it was it was almost a not even if when like it just it just had to happen and I’m not quite G to say oh it has to happen with gold that way but it certainly looks like that in my

View if we get the Landing that Fear Factor creates Safe Haven demand gold goes up if I’m wrong about that we get to soft Landing it’s still recessionary that still is bullish for gold and if there’s no Landing we just go into a reflationary boom that’s bullish for Commodities all the money

Flows and that’s bullish for all Commodities including gold and silver so I’m not saying there’s no way for gold to go down but all of the major potential fats in front of us they all look to me bullish for gold and and we’re not starting from a $1,300 base or

An $800 base or or $200 base we’re starting with a $2,000 base going into this scenario and you know maybe not maybe I think one of the reasons why gold did so well in 2023 that I left out of my scenario was the Central Bank buying I

Didn’t think it would be as persistent and as great as it was in 2023 but that’s not going way you know the the dollarization is something that will take a long time to play out it’s in my view it makes great headlines but it’s not really an

Investable Trend right now except in the case that we’re seeing in terms of what’s happening now we’re seeing bricks and beyond that the global sou of the Eastern buyers are there in force so that that to my mind puts a nice floor under gold and then you have all the

Macro that we’ve talked about arguing for higher gold prices from a much higher base so yes I’m I’m I feel very strongly about this and that’s why my shopping list right now it’s primarily gold little bit of silver lining in there and the most wonderful aspect of this and

This hearkens back to our conversation about uranium you remember I said the beauty of it was is that people were really frustrated because uranium stocks had not done anything for nine months or a year or something and so you you had this you had value and price discrepancy

And we have that right now in gold the gold stocks have underperformed you look at the hoie or you look at the xou and and the gold stocks are just it’s like a one of those alligator jaw charts right Gold’s gone up nominal highs and the stocks some of them are

Trading near 52 we lows okay some of them are maybe garbage and they deserve to trade your 52 we lows but for the average for the big indices to be on the low end of their long range Trends that’s crazy that is a that is I think almost a technical description of crazy

The difference between reality and the perceived value there I think that’s a huge opportunity and that’s where I’m looking to deploy uh right now and going into 2024 okay so Lobo Tigre your investment position of highest conviction going into 2024 is gold and gold stocks and you’re quite confident

In saying that gold is going to reach a new all-time high in 2024 yes you know me well not to ask me for a price prediction thank you very much Michelle I mean we’re we’re so close actually just days ago you mentioned sorry I not sure which contract Kito quotes for their prices

But it’s different from what you see say on Yahoo finance or market watch and it’s different from the lme closes and and I know you can find those on the historical charts in kit I don’t want to get distracted on that but there’s different prices my point is that the

Lmme itself put out news that they just had an official LM High just a couple days ago right um so so that’s an easy prediction but let do better yeah yeah give me better because I I I want to see the upside because you’re saying the

Real upside is going to be in Gold equities so yes which on oh well you know I’m not going to give you stock you have to you have to give me something not give me a price for cost for gold and not also give me any any

Gold equities if I was risk adverse then the major players the profitable major players are go-to stocks that are close to no-brainers uh and you can tell the cavey out there I’m not going to give you a name but anybody you know you know the top five look at the ones that are

On sale and are making money I mean not all of them are on sale anymore so I I I wouldn’t just buy them all in terms of the of the uh farther down the food chain due diligence matters hopefully you know people will consider hiring me to help

Help with that but even if not you know you you I’ll give you I give you a practical guide if you’re looking at something that’s still on sale and you’re saying okay I’m bullish on gold and I want to buy something that’s still on sale Lobo says stocks are still

Relatively cheap certainly priced in Gold they’re very cheap okay but which one if if you see something that looks good to you and that price didn’t even wiggle when gold hit a new nominal all-time high that’s a red flag it’s it’s probably not a you want

To buy whereas okay maybe it didn’t hit a new all-time high either but it responded to the recent rally in Gold then that tells you that stock will move if we’re right about where gold is going in 2024 so that can help you build your shopping list all right are you avoiding

Juniors then not at all uh you’re just saying you mean by Juniors I’ve I’ve I’ve long avoided prediscovery exploration like the very earliest stage like I just not even Rick Ru not Doug Casey not Eric spot nobody can predict who’s going to make a discovery and these big players you know they can

Shotgun the whole market and you know and Achieve results that the ordinary investor doesn’t if you can only own a few stocks your chances of picking a prediscovery play that makes the next big worldclass Discovery they’re very long against you uh the only sensible way to do that is the prospect

Generators but that requires a lot of patients so for me as a as a newsletter writer I just skip ahead to after the discovery hole between the discovery hole and defining a resource I call this success in progress you can see you know somebody makes an exciting Discovery and

They drill again and there’s nothing there that’s not one you want to bet on but if somebody you know Discovery hole and then the next hole hits the next hole hits now you’ve got success in progress that’s exciting to me I’m willing to bet on that part of the

Lisson curve and then of course there’s what I call the pre-production sweet spot you know when you go from pouring money into holes in the ground to making money out of a great big hole in the ground uh that is the most reliable way to find gains in the junior space that I

Have found it’s um it’s my favor my favorite speculation okay and and what about the royalty companies the streaming companies you still you put them in this category as well of being part of your trade of highest conviction they’re not on the on curve you know a a royalty

Company isn’t going to make a discovery they’re not going to build a mine they’re not a producer right it’s it’s a different Beast I like them a lot and there it’s it’s really about the value proposition going forward I want a compelling value proposition I’m also I’m kind of averse to Forever growth

Stories it’s it’s fine if you’re a new company just starting up that you know it’s going to be a while before these royalties you bought start paying off buying royalties that are already paying it’s expensive so it makes sense to you know try to get ahead of that buy future

Production that’s fine I get that but after 10 years or 15 years you know I I want to start seeing money hit the bottom line I you know I’m 15 years is a long time to wait for future uh delivery to the bottom line okay so I like I like

Royalty plays that are profitable and have growth okay so to recap gold is your position of highest conviction in terms of your investment thesis for 2024 and you think that gold and big gold stocks are poised to benefit to the upside in any of the scenarios that we just

Discussed is there anything that derails your thesis here okay well I have been thinking about this because of course you make some mistakes and you you try to learn from them if if I was right about the high gold price in 2023 but for the wrong reason you know I really need to

Think about that and I have come up with something um I was watching Ed yardeni on I think it was a Bloomberg interview another one of these longtime legendary investors he’s a bull and he’s got lots of reasons for being a bull but he said one thing in particular that really made

Me sit back and think and he said that the baby boom generation is getting to the age where they’re flipping from saving to spending I don’t know where he got the for this or if it’s just an idea he has but it makes perfect sense to me you

Anecdotally I speak with people in an age group and I see absolutely what he’s talking about and that is a huge pile of money Michelle we’re talking trillions and trillions of dollars and if those people reverse course that is a big enough macroeconomic shift like if if I ask how could it

Possibly be that all these bad things can happen the the covid lockdown shocks to the economy how can we not have a recession well those trillions of dollars coming into the market and like we should have a recession but if we don’t have it maybe something like that could be there

So that this isn’t a prediction that I’m not saying therefore um you know change everything but if you ask me how might I be wrong what could change things or or put it another way you know we like to laugh at people who say oh this time is

Different you can ignore the leading economic indicators because this time is different or you can you know ignore this because it’s different well if Ed is right about the Baby Boomers flipping from saving to spending that is a big enough change in the economy that this

Time could be different I don’t know if he’s right I don’t know what will happen but it’s something I’ll be watching for okay so if the Baby Boomers decide uh to adopt the YOLO adage you only live once and start spending into their uh sort of

Uh Sunset years then that could be a big enough macroeconomic Trend to derail concerns of of of a Slowdown would that though necessarily be negative for gold though because baby boomas tend to like a gold maybe they’re spending on gold yeah that’s a that’s a question mark I

Don’t know I could see where it could be but also if that brings on a you know a steady phase of growth certainly your safe haven demand would be reduced and the people who’ve recently been thinking well gee the world’s a scary place maybe ought to hedge a bit with some gold I

Think that thinking would go away so my my knee-jerk reaction is probably bearish for gold but it would be terrific for the oil stocks that I do have in my portfolio my my few proud copper survivors would do well and by the way it could be spectacularly good

News for silver like we we’re always you know always waiting for silver to come and outperform gold silver could actually be a much better bet than gold in that environment why would it be a better bet than gold because it’s industrial growth okay the spending would would would lead to that

Okay but assuming the Baby Boomers uh are still not uh unleashing their savings into the economy and still being quite prudent you still think gold and gold stocks is the top trade in 204 even if Ed is right it’s not like they’re going to you know empty out their bank

Accounts now it’s it’s more like a title shift you you you go from saving saving saving saving now you’re G to start spending it’s not like GNA spend it all at once right but but you know that could be a game changer my base case Outlook Michelle is very bullish for

Gold you know I don’t give price targets but let me just throw out there a a mere 10% gain from where we are now is over 2200 and that would make for some pretty exciting headlines that would be easy easy to hit so interesting times I’m I’m

Extremely bullish on this and I am I am placing more and larger bets than I have in the past on gold stocks that I think are still on sale right now all right and of course if people want to know those specifics they’re going to have to subscribe to your newsletter because

Despite how Charming I am you never give me a single pick Lobo oh well hopefully I give you useful information you did give us some useful information though you did give us some useful information and certainly some very useful insight to wrap up the year

And to look ahead for in 2024 and you know we’ll be checking in with you then but thank you so much for joining us final show of 2023 Lobo we really appreciate it wishing you a wonderful New Year and look forward to catching up in 2024 thank you you too and the

Audience I sincerely wish you a very prosperous New Year and I hope I can be as helpful of that in 2024 as I hope I wasn’t in 2023 well I have to say l you’re you’re a slight uh change of pace from the not so uh doom and gloomy uh

Usual voices that we’ve had on to wrap up the year so I think that the viewers will at least appreciate that you’re not quite so mired in darkness and despair uh but thank you so much for joining us again Happy New Year to you and a Happy

New Year to all of our viewers from me Michelle mccy and the rest of the KidCo news team we’ll see you next year Kco news Outlook 2024 is brought to you by itrust Capital buy and sell crypto gold and silver with your IRA