Crypto Market Dump! ETF To Be Rejected? Is $1M Bitcoin Still Possible? | Raoul Pal

3 years ago Raoul Pal made a bold prediction that within next 5 years the price of Bitcoin will hit $1 million. What does Raoul think about it today? Let’s find out. And as always, Chris Inks will provide his analysis of the crypto market.

Raoul Pal: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #RaoulPal

The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.

Crypto markets just saw a major dump a huge move to the downside yesterday when we were streaming it was 45,700 Bitcoin now it’s about 42,500 all of this apparently coming on a rumor that the ETF might get rejected we’re going to talk about that why that notion is actually nonsense for this

Move and I’ve got the best possible guest today the stars align gave me a major volatility and R Paul both right around 9:00 a.m. eastern standard time can’t wait to discuss this with him and of course to look at charts on the back end with Chris inks Texas West Capital let’s go let’s Go what is up everybody I’m Scott milker also known as The Wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button I’m not going to waste any time cuz I don’t have that much of it Raul Matrix Port like I read this I go

To Twitter I see the market dumping I’m like so what excuse do we have today we all know that it’s leverage we’ll get into that but what excuse a guy with no inside information on anything said in a report that he thinks because it’s a bunch of Democrats that we might not get

A Bitcoin spot ETF approved I mean who the [ __ ] is Matrix Port nobody’s ever heard of them until today I think that’s Jihan wo’s uh it started as a it was a mining and then I think it was sort of actually like one of these yield

Platforms I think it started as sort of a Celsius one of those competitors I mean here’s what he said right uh the current five person voting Commissioners leadership critical for the ETF approval of the SEC is dominated by democrats I mean that that’s basically his premise here we were bullish before now we’re

Not bullish but we still think the will be good and here we go with this massive uh event but what I I think really happened here I mean just for the record is really clear I talked about it yesterday 500 million in liquidations this says one hour but it’s 10 minutes

500 million 95% Longs yesterday talked about it at length that annualized funding rates were 66% to be long I mean humans love sex and leverage like nothing else it’s of what drives them and I think the Leverage is all about sex look how rich I am look how

Big my bags are it’s it’s ridiculous it’s ridiculous and I I keep saying to people don’t [ __ ] this up and Leverage is the classic way to [ __ ] it up if you think about salana it’s had a peak to trough 36% pullback now even if you were mild three

Times leverage and the general degens are much more than three times levered you get wiped out it’s like stop doing that please just stick with the program don’t [ __ ] this up I don’t think they’ll ever learn is it because people just feel like they need to get rich quick

The lack of patience and I’ve got to do it now in what world does salana go up 10x in a year and you don’t think there’s enough juicy price action for you that you simply must leverage it I mean yeah it’s absolutely insane just to

Be clear you know we obvious look to the experts when things like this happen this is Eric balunis from Bloomberg who I had on last week people tagging me like crazy on this rejection report we’ve heard nothing to indicate anything but approval but I want to give the guy

The benefit of the doubt so I’m asking if he has any sources or if he just speculating he seems to be a Bitcoin Bull and recently tweeted executive said approval likely so unsure why we flipped so listen this isn’t the reason right this is a catalyst for somebody somebody’s always sitting there when

There’s over leverage and it’s all to one side waiting for any little thing that they can use to sell off a bit and Spark this yeah don’t forget there a lot of short-term traders in this space with a lot of capital right the the main institutional capital in this space is

Actually trading firms there’s very few hedge funds um and there’s very few big institutions so these guys see that massive build up in leverage they wait for something and then they press it and everyone gets liquidated and they make a ton of money from it’s classic kind of

Market maker price action it would have happened on the New York Stock Exchange floor would happens in the Futures exchanges it happens always but the one thing just before I came on today I went back and looked at the 2015 to 18 bull market we had 11 20% pullbacks or more

Many of them were 35 38% in the last cycle um from the 2020 low not even the 2019 low from the 2020 low we had eight Corrections over 15% some happened in a day and some happened over three weeks so it’s normal yeah and we say it all the time

But somehow it’s mind-blowing when it happens and we’re rotating and the bare Market is back and it’s over right I mean this is 10ish percent move there’s nothing of course all coins get rocked a lot harder but actually we’ve had a pretty decent bounce here this went all

The way down to but I’m looking on coinbase about 40,600 pretty big like I said that 24 hours ago I remember saying 45,700 we’re on our way the issue is it doesn’t even give you enough time to go and search the sofa for any spare change you know

Rifing through your jean Pockets looking for any cash it’s all over and done with um and before you know it you know as somebody was saying I think it was um um OSF was saying now it would be a hilarious if they approved the ETF today yeah and I think that that’s been

Speculation that that’s very likely to happen at least that they’ll find out that they’re approved you know with the ability to launch we may not hear about it but a lot of people believing that the process is happening today tomorrow and frankly does it matter if it happens

Today or in a week or even in three months at all it’s irrelevant it’s irrelevant yeah but you know what the greatest top signal is I have to play this video I’m sorry because we saw it yesterday and then the market drops 10% but I do think that the people who

Are in it for that are going to use that as a chance to sell but this thing is it you can’t kill it no can’t and the late Charlie Munger who was so uh brilliant on so many things was blind to this now you can say wait a second maybe it’s all

Going to come on has uh has not spared any uh negative words no but look I mean it’s a reality and it’s a technological Marvel and I think people have to start recognizing that it it it’s here to to stay the sec’s been against it almost the whole time yeah now that doesn’t

Mean that every one of these is here to stay but I do think that it’s about this is a remarkable comeback that was unexpected totally except for for all the Bulls who are turned out to be right Gensler does a lot of jaw boning didn’t work work I mean I mean Jim Kramer

Hilarious and he is a great meme for all of us but the other thing is I’m just watching CNBC and it just looks like of an older different age it’s like a world that doesn’t exist anymore it’s daily viewing figures are less than you and I

Will get on this show it’s kind of it’s and yet we kind of the space still looks at it for some sort of validation it’s ridiculous um you know yeah and it’s amazing how much he’s flip-flopped it’s one of those things actually like he’s saying the right

Thing I’m glad to hear it I 100% agree with it it’s just incredible what the market does the minute that that he foot flops it’s they had the inverse Kramer ETF I would love to see the performance of it if it includes Bitcoin but it’s pretty comical to see this go down okay

It’s like cappo and his tweeting as well oh my god did you see this one no wait I have just been informed of what really happened at 4:48 a.m. Capo took his first long since 2022 I hate making fun of this guy honestly I think everybody I don’t even know who he is

But it’s just a great right from the exact moment the entire Market nuked the timing is incredible and it shows him taking an avac long for a scalp and this is literally I think the first time he’s posted about a long position since the dead bottom and it was I mean to like

Within 20 minutes the market started to move how is this possible come on I don’t know but we’ve all top tick markets before yeah I’m the I’m the master of that no doubt okay so listen I think that we both agree that this is a liquidation event it causes a Cascade

This is the classic situation so I guess then the question is what comes next like does this uh in any way impact your view of what’s Happening Here in the market for me we’re literally trading at the same price as two days ago on bitcoin two days ago my another Mantra

That I have when you’re in the middle of a bull market that has the macro behind it is it’s all [ __ ] noise it’s just noise and so you know has the main thesis changed is the world becoming less digital or more digital every day more are investors who aren’t exposed to

It getting more interested in it yes is their Capital flow coming in yes is the business cycle supportive are liquidity conditions supportive yes in which everything else is noise so it doesn’t change anything it actually gives it a higher probability of rising and it gives it a higher probability of rising

Because you flushed out the leverage yeah I mean it literally cannot continue up with uh those funding rates in that much open interest so I think that it’s just a classic move so for me I still think we still get a massive move up if we get the actual approval

Now I obviously if we’d gone in with such high funding we’ have had to sell off after the event now we can have a rally and maybe a cons sideways consolidation before it actually goes live right so we’ve got announcement and then live date and then

The masses need need to be mobilized and so there’s going to be waves of of that happening so my general mental model could be dead wrong is we rally into it rally after it sideways consolidate for you know a month while everybody starts launching this thing the tick has come out you

Know you can start trading it and the raas go around talking to their clients and then by March it all starts going batshit crazy yeah so the premise of a lot of this obviously is this institutional wall of capital I have a clip of you that my producer just shared from 2020

And I want to see what you said here and see if you still agree with it are you ready here we go bullish calls out there uh for Bitcoin not just the a million doll Mark but a million dollars within five years yeah I think that’s about right

And that whether it’s five years six years we’re going to go through two of these Haring Cycles um and just from what I know from all of the institutions all of the people I speak to there is an enormous wall of money coming into this it’s an enormous wall of money just the

Pipes aren’t there to allow people to do it yet and that’s coming but it’s on everybody’s radar screen and there’s a lot of smart people working on it so I think it’s going to be not because the world’s collapsing it’s because there’s going to be adoption by the real large polls of

Capital right I can obviously ask the question is 1 million Bitcoin still possible but that’s the noise that doesn’t matter I think we all think that’s possible and like you said five six seven years but that was a pretty prophetic prediction because you were talking about the institutional wall of

Capital which the ETF is the single greatest unlock for that in my opinion and the idea that the pipes would finally be ready which is the same sort of concept we all know that in 2020 they just couldn’t come in like I was Black Rock GNA just store it on their Ledger

In a safe and hope for the best like it didn’t exist well don’t forget Rick reita did buy it I think he used the Futures Contract he bought it he was their big risk taker so we did see institutional adoption but it was like early as you the the true pipes weren’t

There and now it’s all there and they’ve all done the work on it and they all understand it so you know we’ve seen the work that you know you’ve had Sandy on from Franklin Templeton we’ve seen um obviously the Fidelity team these guys have been working throughout people like

Bitwise Hunter horley they’ve been out working all the way through the bare Market educating people getting people in place getting the right product ramping up their teams it’s coming I mean somebody said it in the comments but it’s not like they’re shooting commercials and spending money on these things if they don’t think

They’re going to get approved right I played the hash commercial the bitwise commercial the vanet commercial yesterday that that would be a pretty big waste of money uh if these things aren’t coming so do you think that the institutional wall of money is sitting there waiting for this product do you

Think the demand will be there we’ve seen these really mixed sort of predictions even from the experts it’ll be a billion dollar in a week you know like bit was 48 hours and then some saying maybe it’s 30 or 40 million in the first month right I don’t know how

To gauge that I’ve always said it’s a function of price so if price you know last year was the best advert you wanted for an ETF to launch if You’ have launched the ETF in November 2022 You’ have raised 30 million bucks and everyone would have been embarrassed yeah like the future

You raise it after Bitcoin bitcoin’s done 150% last year that’s pretty interesting to people um so now are the institutions going to use the ETF mostly not it’s mostly the raas it’s really for individual investors um so those pulls of capital and the individuals it makes it just super easy

Because they can just use their brokerage app or they can use their Raa because then they can get fees on top so they’re incentivized to do it um will some Pension funds do it yes but they still really don’t know how to deal with this asset class yet and they want more

Regulatory Clarity I mean it helps with an ETF so we will we will see it you know one of the headlines that will come across the tape in 2024 is some monster pension fund has taken a monsterized position in Bitcoin it’s not just Bill Miller and Texas teachers it’ll be a

Bunch of others and you know we will see those headlines they will be the Pioneers to show the way to others that you could do it much like Paul Tuda Jones was a Pioneer in getting the hedge funds to start trading it because he was pretty early into into getting on board

With it yeah his fastest horse in the race comment arguably sparked the entire last Bull Run of course alongside micro strategy uh designed by put on their balance sheet I don’t know if you saw but sailor now apparently is selling like 230 240 million micr strategy uh

Stock I bet we know where that money’s gonna go is at some point is’s he gonna sell any of his own stock that I mean that’s what he was doing I think he’s selling his own micro strategy stock but the implication that he’s going to himself buy more Bitcoin

With it I mean the guy is but you have to respect the absolute conviction in doing it and that he’s been right even through these Cycles I mean people like cost who have been around a while you’re willing to wait 10 20 years for something to happen but then you get on

The in the uh you know Court of public opinion and if you’re not profitable in six months you’re the worst investor that ever exist existed on the planet right yeah always the case look I mean he’s been very single-minded and I would argue brave because you know you’re using leverage by issuing convertible

Notes to buy uh you know and it could have gone horribly wrong had the last cycle got wor the down cycle um but he did it and you know there’s generally the people who make obscene amounts of money generally take quite a lot of risk um yeah and those that don’t make it

Aren’t recorded and everyone forgets those who don’t make it but they’ll remember the winner the person who managed to get it right and good for go down as one of the greatest investors of all time but this is a good opportunity I think for us to sort of give a reset

On our previous conversations obviously we had the podcast you know a few a few weeks back we talked about salana uh and you were extremely bullish on it that was probably 3x ago at this point it was a couple months ago I think uh you talked about getting this natural

Retrace that was obviously coming after you do a move that large you know 10 15 20x what do you is salana still your main focus for the upcoming bull market and that ecosystem you obviously very bullish on eth in the cycle I’m actually starting to think that eth’s going to

Catch up massively soon um that’s sort of my premise at this point after the salana move I wondering where you stand on all of it so yeah my thesis remains unchanged I’m mainly denominated in salana second is e eth and like you I think eth has a big catch up as soon as

This ETF is done so that pause after the ETF is announced is I think the start of the eth Run because it’s very simple let’s say a billion dollars of speculative Capital went in to speculating on the Bitcoin ETF okay once that news is out you’ll sell then what

Do you do oh the eth ETF well that’s going to come by maybe June so in which case that billion dollars goes into eth now what’s interesting about eth is it’s a third of the size of Bitcoin currently so if you put the same billion dollars

Into an asset that’s a third of the size it probably goes 3x more than Bitcoin did and you know eth with the deflationary asset the more activity the less ether is around and all of the staking means there’s not a lot of liquid ether around if this happens so it could get very

Very squeezy so yeah I think that and maybe at some point it’ll play a bit of catch up to salana I think salana beats it all cycle but there’ll be legs when eth does really well much like Bitcoin started off out of the gates faster than anything uh then salana caught up and

Well ex exceeded it I think E’s chance is next yeah we’ve seen sort of this classic cyclical action of capital but it hasn’t necessarily been just from say salana to avac to hopefully eth or something like that but we’ve seen the entire ecosystems sort of move together so is there anything that you’re

Watching more deeply Within These ecosystems that’s particularly interesting to you I’ve always said to people hey man just buy the layer one because you’re not going to do the work to find the thing in that ecosystem that goes 100x you’ll get the value of the actual you know layer one token but

There’s some pretty interesting things happening in these ecosystems salana in particular yes there are and it’s I’m not smart enough to do it you know I start up an asset management company called exponential age Asset Management xam that actually invests in it’s a fund of hedge funds so invests in digital

Asset hedge funds so they go out and do the work and do it because that’s their job I’m just not smart enough to find it one thing I do know is some token with new charts will do well who’s that going to be is that going to

Be you know what you know we’ve seen it with Bonk you know could it be with any of the others a whole bunch of these and that’s a bit of a crapshoot who gets adoption the one thing that for everybody else to bear in mind is that

These Cycles tend to play out the same way so it tends to start with crypto spring is Bitcoin dense we then start transitioning later spring and it seems to be always defi season I don’t know why but defi season starts taking off then you start hitting alt season when Global liquidity starts increasing

Year on year alt season hits and eth starts outperforming Bitcoin and then you get some of these ridiculous uh tail events also nfts lag so we’re still in we’re kind of like we were beginning of last year in in crypto where some of the nfts have found

A base and are rallying others are still bleeding obviously some of those will go to zero obviously but that nft space it really takes off when eth goes to alltime highs um that’s what happened last time around and then it utterly explodes because everyone’s got money to recycle they buy

Trophy assets everybody wants to buy a punk and then off it goes again so we’ve got that Madness still to come we’ve still got another leg mcoin madness dogcoin madness comes later still so that’s in Q2 is kind of dogcoin Madness to come so all of the the the

Psychology psychology of the Deens that will play out as as as normal plus the sensible bets of the the right layer ones yeah I mean the Cycles make perfect sense because it’s just people looking for larger gains and more risk as they get bored with whatever they just made

Money on you know if eth does it well now I got to beat eth I got to get into nfts or layer twos or whatever it is and I for one believe that this will be an even bigger cycle and bigger version of that this is something I’m toying with

So here’s my probability set 60% chance it’s a regular cycle somewhat like the last cycle but maybe a bit more like the previous cycle that 2017 that got a little bit crazy I think there’s a 20% chance that maybe it all gets front loaded because we get all

Of the retail demand via the ETF and it actually is a shorter cycle than expected if you think the prev cycle was actually a bit stunted versus where people’s expectations were maybe this is stunted in terms of time the other outcome I’ve got the other 20% chance is

That this is a a gigantic bubble cycle somewhere between the 2012 13 version and the 2015 because everybody can now participate and total [ __ ] Madness ensues and I don’t know which one of those three it’s going to be but they’ve all got a decent chance maybe it’s my uh bad

And future wealth talking but I lean towards the ladder but I do have a premise for that and I’ll tell you why I if you think about everybody was a little bit shocked that we didn’t have a final leg last time around so they now got that imprint

Like they’ve all been waiting for the down 50% leg the covid leg which is not going to happen again so they’re now all expecting that it to be a smaller cycle and I always look for where can the crowd be wrong but still be right which

Is like it’s going up but it goes up more my feeling is that it might continue to be a dampened or smaller cycle for Bitcoin which we’ve seen sort of each you know having cycle goes up th% 20% 3% whatever the numbers are right from the previous all-time high

But I think people underestimate just how degenerate these trafi guys are and once they come in through the Bitcoin ETF and once they get a taste for this Market wait until they find out out about mem coins and altcoins and nfts and that real liquidity comes in there

So I think that uh we get the inevitable trickle down of even institutional Traders I I’m not saying that Pension funds are buying punks but I think that uh there’s going to be just an unexpected boom in capital and that’s going to flow through that same cycle that we talked about before everybody’s

Been through that cycle you have I have everybody if you come in on bitcoin and then you walk into the candy store it’s like holy [ __ ] this is the best thing I’ve ever seen and before you know it you’re doing ridiculous things you should never be doing and having a lot

Of fun doing it even knowing that it’s crazy I mean if you’re doing it with profits and not your rent then uh you know I think in a small percentage thereof I think have at it is anything at this point in the macro cycle we’ve talked about the four years everything

Cycle obviously people can go back and listen to that but is there anything in the macro that that’s concerning you that you think could stifle this process no so my forward looking indicates liquidity going up the business cycle following that path inflation falling look at true inflation it was down 2

Point whatever again you know I still think it goes to zero um and then following it will be the core inflation will keep deflating unemployment who knows I think it rises a little bit from here um but that’s enough to bring the FED into action we you know will they use the

Balance sheet and print well somehow they got to roll all this debt maybe they don’t maybe they figure a different way maybe they incentivize the banks to take it on board doesn’t matter it’s the liquidity that matters so I don’t see anything on the horizon that changes any

Of this and if you think about one of the big things that people were worried about was China but cut to a month and a half ago and she’s got a smiling face in California shaking hands with Gavin Nome talking about what we should all be working together well that tells me for

This cycle that’s taken that risk off the table too so you know where is the risk here uh yesterday on macro Monday on a Tuesday uh we sort of reviewed there was an article in Bloomberg reviewing basically the 2024 predictions of every meaningful Wall Street institution and they were all the same

And there was nobody willing to say anything dramatic in either direction almost every single one of them said we see inflation being a bit sticky maybe a very mild and shallow recession maybe we trade sideways it was like everyone was hedging their bets because they were wrong in 23 everybody was

Wrong um it you know and it was clear as day to me then and it remains clear as day to me now sure there will be upsets on the way we’ve got to get through an election and we don’t know what Madness is is going to ensue in this election we

Don’t know what content we’re going to be consuming that’s AI that gets us enraged and then we start hating each other um and it won’t have been real content the who knows what stories what fears the market has about you know is Trump going to impose a 10% tariff on

Everything is this going to happen is that going to happen so we will go through some volatility but generally speaking election years are all about the government giving out candy to appease the voters and that’s more cowbell in my in my mind yeah I don’t see a situation where that doesn’t

Happen so I want to ask you before I let you go anecdotally because obviously you have real vision and I can tell with my traffic or Twitter followers or how many people show up to a stream exactly what price is doing right the biggest days are always obviously the biggest days

Are when it goes up or down massively but the general trend is everything’s dead when the Market’s dead and all of a sudden people start coming back out of the woodwork are you seeing it in your business this sort of bullish progression of prices and the everything

Going up are you seeing a ton of movement with new subscribers interest things like that yes people are starting to feel confident again right and it took them a long time through 2023 to start to believe start to believe that the economy could recover that it wasn’t going to hell in a hand

Basket and it was it was okay to be bullish again and look it’s just the business cycle and that’s normal it took people a while it took people a while to recover from but my crypto went down 75% I’m like no [ __ ] sh like it does this

All the time you know you’ll just hang on stick with it don’t [ __ ] this up so yes we’re seeing confidence come back you’re seeing more engagement in videos you’re seeing a lot more interest in crypto again people starting to say I get it now um all of that kind of stuff

So that’s been great we’ve also um we’ve got a you know we built this new new platform that I’ve mentioned before there’s a whole free component now we’ve built education for people that’s free as well so people just go to real.com Scott go there it’s free but there’s

There’s whole education about crypto to not [ __ ] this up we’re just trying to help as many people as possible as you are just help them navigate this because once you’ve been around the block a few times you know how it plays out I know I’m supposed to let you go but when you

You keep saying don’t [ __ ] this up I know you had an epic video about it maybe a month ago I saw it shared I think today on real Vision what can people do really quickly to not [ __ ] this up don’t use leverage today proved it don’t tra don’t overtrade just hold

Have patience if you’re gonna have a dgen book have 10% of your assets in your DJ book and keep off defi don’t go out trying to lend stuff for fancy returns because you get rug pulled if you’re not careful you’ve got you’ve added a layer of risk risk and before

You know it you don’t own your coins anymore and the game is over for you so don’t do that also look most exchanges nowadays are high quality and relatively safe but if you can you should not keep your coins on an exchange that exposes other risks so you need to have wallet

Hygiene just store things on different Ledger devices or whatever um don’t store it in one wallet don’t use that wallet for everything because then everybody sees your wallet and you can be open to a SC so just do that and and just don’t fomo into the shiny thing

Because that is a sure way of losing money and just step back let the madness in shoe have a smile on your face watch it but try not to get caught up in it if you do use your 10% of your book to get caught in the madness so you can laugh at

Yourself because I guarantee that 90% of you will lose 90% of the money in that book some will some of of your friends will make the 100x and you’ll you’ll be always thinking I can be them you won’t be you never will be yeah I would say if

You’re already exposed to this market and uh you’re feeling any sort of emotion just do nothing and wait because you’re probably whatever you’re holding right now is very likely to be many multiples up you know by 2025 than it is I me half of me wishes that we didn’t

Have businesses to run I could just turn off all my computers go around the world go off you know SP spend six months in Africa go and do something and come back and it would be so much easier yeah to prevent yourself from making bad decisions it’s funny I think one of the

Time when we were talking person you were like in person it must have been in March so it was still a while ago and the market was doing well and you were like I’m already checking my portfolio twice a day so something here is happening I was like twice a day you

Mean twice every 10 minutes twice twice a day for you as fomo then you’re doing really really well I try I really try not to but it it flashes at you and if not what what I’ve now done to feed the inner D gen is I’ve

Got like on coin market cap the uh the kind of um smaller tokens and speculative stuff that I’ve got and I check that all the time don’t even check the p&l I’m just like are they up up or down 20% today because they invariably are up and down 20% fun yeah the casino

Is always open there by the way as as I as I let you go if you need any final counter indicator shiff is tweeting about how bad the Bitcoin spot ETF is going to be for everyone just the gold people really hate the ETF they think it

Broke their world like they thought the Futures and yes look there is a a reality of the fact that this is keeping money inside the tradire system but we also know it’s like tourists they go on holiday look at this great country like you come to the Cayman Islands you start thinking maybe

I could move there and before you know it you know you buy an apartment there or whatever it is right people as you said before they come in through the Bitcoin ETF they look around and like I want some of that mcoin Ridiculousness or nfts or I want a sport a punk and

There before you know it they’re in cryptand fulltime so well they’re all welcome here man thank you so much for uh your time and and hopefully after this cycle we can all move to the game it’s lovely man that’s definitely better than whatever I’m doing with my

Life made me feel bad all right man Everybody follow Raul obviously I know you already are you have your own YouTube now so those videos are find me on YouTube Ralph pal the journey man tons of great stuff my big macro thesis crypto thesis is there it came out over

Christmas New Year um go and watch that and if you want the free real Vision experience with the AI and the all of the videos and the transcripts and the education stuff and everything else just go to real.com Scott it’s all free so knocky socks off amaz amazing dude thank you so

Much we’re g to do this again soon enjoy the rest of your day thank you all right my friend take care everyone see you soon wow that was uh awesome I’m used to having at least an hour with r so it’s hard for me to even have a 30 minute

Conversation with a big brain like that I do want to move to the C and so I’m gonna be honest it’s uh really really appealing so uh guys it’s not done we’re not done we got our normal Wednesday here and what a better day to look at

Charts with Chris RS of Texas west Capital dude you brought there’s 4,000 400 people who showed up to YouTube another 500 right now watching on Twitter all because you’re here I wish I wish I get all here for you it’s incredible great job great job yeah you

Know I was listen there with with you and ra there and man I I’m 100% behind what he said there at the end about overtrading and uh you know about just kind of holding on a bit and you know not getting shaken out by the short

Moves and you know and the fact that really I I’m big on what he said about you know 90 plus percent of y’all are gonna you know you’re GNA you’re going to see if somebody get a hundred times on something You’ be like oh man I can

Do that too but you can’t and you won’t and most of those people that got it are lucky um you know uh very few of them are actually skilled that get it right a them were just like hoping and and whatever and so the thing is if you’re using proper risk

Management um you know and you’re taking profits along the way you’re going to be a lot further ahead than what most people end up being um you know when they go through a bull cycle I said the other day on on Twitter there on X I

Posted uh and I said that uh you know just because it’s a bull Mark doesn’t guarantee that you’re G to make money um a lot of people lose money in the bull market and so you got to know what you’re doing you know you can’t just

Hope either that or Buy and Hold and then you still got to Hope a bit if if you’re getting something really kind of crazy out there but if you’re buying and holding Bitcoin or ethereum whatever most likely you’re going to make money so yeah that’s what I said like if

You’re exposed now man go uh go touch some grass and get out of here like R said I think that’s true but I mean you’ve got to take a look at Bitcoin here obviously on The Daily the first thing that I noticed here just on

My end is the last time we were at the 50 ma was 26,700 is all the way back in October right and you generally get these mean reversion touches it didn’t break but if you want to look where this move basically died I mean within a couple

Hundred bucks I think the 50 ma is about 4,900 this went to 40,600 that’s where we bounced I’m not saying we’re going to permanently bounce but no big coincidence that I think that’s where we saw a bounce on a daily 50 and then of course we had this bull

Pedant uh I mean it’s a bull pedant it was a classic bull pedant looked beautiful volume on the breakout o bad so that didn’t work out as planned uh reminding us of technical analysis doesn’t work every single time right yeah yeah no you know it’s all in

How you look at it and and you know here’s the thing technical analysis is a big broad um you know grouping right so you have everybody from classical chartis to uh Elliot wave to wof to price action you know specifically maybe ICT or something like that so I mean

There’s a lot of different um things under technical analysis right and not everything reads the same way so for me um this is kind of how I’m looking at this so we’ve got this range here uh we have a great drop off in volume throughout the range here we got this

Rejection that’s moved out it has not printed a lower low right now so right now I’m really interested there’s a lot of volume there a volume Spike on that coming down but it’s getting caught down here in these Wicks where all this demand is right this is low volume node

Um I shown this chart this is something I posted on the weekly it was talking about you know before we broke out how we had this bullish consolidation on top of this uh at the time there’s the blue pivot there and whatnot um but yeah I

Mean for me right now this looks like a diagonal so if we’re popping up if we can even zoom in more here you can see it’s just three waves down so ABC here the retracement I think is right around 70 and a half which is a institutional

Pullback level let me see there oh no it actually went down a bit further here well let me see yeah I went down a little bit further it’s fine anyway but yeah so it hits that low volume node G you know grabs a bid runs on Up 4 hour

Is almost overs on Stoke RSI RSI as well I’m watching right now if we rally up this is just three waves down so if we rally up above this swing High here uh it’s right around 45,5 19 on the Bitcoin USD pair on coinbase but whatever chart you’re looking at should

Be a one a two and a three like this right an ABC if we’re popping out above that without creating any more waves down this is just a wave one on the way up and all of a sudden we’re looking at 54,000 so I mean you know if we get this

And we kind of measure this out here uh’s here one and two yeah up here around 53 54,000 depending what chart you’re looking at um and so yeah so it’s just really important now what happens here if we break down below here okay then we can

Look down lower but as long as we’re holding here we’re not making a new low on this big spike of volume coming off there that that uh daily pivot is holding right there man that’s just the first wave on that next series up because it’s a diagonal and and if it

Breaks out higher it’s not an ending diagonal it’s a leading diagonal which makes it a wave one so yeah I just want to show this right now on the last 24 hours we’re at $651 million in liquidation 89% Longs right then you go to I mean so obviously it’s

12 hours 581 so most of it obviously happening recently 4 hour is 560 so there and then one hour is only 25 so it all happened in that 10 or 15 minute period basically when you dig into those numbers over 500 million in a candle y I

Mean what are you g to do right we talk about it all the time and people still do it and it’s liquidations it’s not even losses right so that doesn’t even really include the people who properly used risk management right the stop loss and just lost right I mean it’s

Literally just the people who didn’t even use a stop loss to get liquidated yeah yeah and so you know I mean like I said we we you know warn about it all the time about becoming overleveraged and getting too frothy and you know and stuff like that and uh you know when it

Does that the market pays the price and you you know you kind of wash everybody out and you get back down there I if you need a narrative you know I’m not big on narratives I’m not big on you know fundamentals and all that other stuff

I’ll just look at charts but a lot of people talking about you know ETFs and whatnot and I find it quite compelling that we’re getting this huge reset on a lot of time frames right before a potential ETF approval right now is approve or not I don’t know but we

Didn’t want to be uh we didn’t want to be at historically High funding rates and open interest massively overbought on everything going into it exactly exactly so you know I don’t know you know if it gets approved we’re reset I mean technically we’re we’re reset or resetting um across you know many many

Time frames so uh you know it gives it room to run so yeah think signing come up last few days here so nothing has changed for you in the sort of larger time frame views that you’ve had every week that we’ve showed up and talked forever right 10% daily flush whatever doesn’t doesn’t

Affect you doesn’t you know you’re not uh we don’t think we’re going to 12,000 right now no no not at all unless it’s eth unless it’s eth maybe unless it’s ethereum right yeah exactly um you know I’ve had forever in a day here since we

Got this one and two I’ve had this wave three up here at almost 52,000 and if this is a one two you know taking us up to 53 or 54,000 that gets us right there with the target so um I feel pretty good about it to me nothing has happened

Again we haven’t lost support on there we’ve got the range um even if we do I I would caution people though even if we get a drop below that range low that I had on there just watch don’t immediately sell because it could always just be a spring just a or a terminal

ShakeOut just below it maybe hit this S1 pivot around 38,300 and then take off and rock it back up um so just be careful don’t assume it has to go down to everybody gets all bearish and it has to go to 5,000 you know kapp’s probably out there

Te you know texting right now that uh that he was right and look it’s the end of the again and I don’t know man you know you just gotta be I don’t know if you saw on Ro stream Capo took his first long this morning at 4:30 a.m. right

Before this I’m not kidding on avac I shared it before we had Jim Kramer yesterday which is just funny whatever I it’s not it’s just funny um but yeah Tapo literally took a long I’ll have to Now find the Tweet again but yeah took a long this this morning that’s that’s his

First long right I mean like I said I think he was out I think it was the first public long that I’ve seen that he actually took uh since sort of capitulating on the I don’t know brutal ah it is what it is but I tell you what

Guys listen here’s the thing about trading um nothing on Capal just individually but just specifically on doing generally on doing that thing if you’re a Trader and you think you know something that other people don’t know I mean jump on it you know trading is all about asymmetric information it’s all

About knowing something that somebody else doesn’t know and taking advantage of that um you know if you say you know something and then you’re not taking advantage of it do you really believe that you know it you know and then then that’s what it comes down to proper risk

Management the end of the day guys it really is proper risk management so yeah and uh you know all of this triggered by The Matrix Port analyst that nobody knows or cares about saying that and then yeah you get but you get the good takes right metal law man who I have on

The show all the time James Murphy if the SEC were to not to deny all spot Bitcoin ETFs the applicants would immediately Sue and the DC court of appeals would again rule that the SEC was arbitrary and capricious the SEC gave every reason they had for denying

Grace skill and loss I expect multiple approvals on January 10th I mean that seems like uh pragmatic reasonable and rational based on evidence uh take on what’s likely to happen here yeah exactly I mean um you know again for me uh you know it’s all about the charts I know everybody likes

To talk about all the other stuff because the other stuff feeds emotion right um if if you if you’ve got a if you’re if you’re in a trade and you say okay well the trade has to go long well what information can I find that supports what I’m saying how can I twist

That so that it really supports my emotional bias in this trade and so um you know I mean people still try to do with charts as well uh but it’s not it’s not the same type of emotional um connection that you often get with uh with narratives narrative stories are

Very big for human beings um we use them in marketing and advertising and everything all the time because they work uh but people use them when they’re trading uh because it makes them feel warm it makes them feel better right if you can find oh well this guy saying

This then basically oh I’m as smart as they are and so we’re GNA do this you know gotta be careful with that but yeah yeah I mean the charts are not looking beish okay so what are you looking at any other charts specifically at the as

You do as you do that here it is I have just been informed of what really happened at 4:48 a.m. cppo took his first long since 2022 when the exact with the entire Market dud I mean it’s it’s uncanny it’san it’s awful um but yeah I mean you

Know so everybody’s kind of talking about file and everything and uh we’ve got this great accumulation range going on here we’re just now getting ready to break out uh we should have a jump across the creek here which is just basically this breakout through this um this Supply here that’s keeping

Everything down which should be a decent Siz candle large candle spread large Spike of volume uh right now again all we’ve got is this pullback uh based on this being a one and a two we’ve got a three up here 2648 so um I mean that you know that

That’s where I’m going with this you can see we’ve got a lot of volume as we kind of broke out through the range here up into this up into this area so all this where you would expect it you know anybody that went short over here is

Going to try and protect those shorts um and those who missed are going to think oh I’ve got a second chance now but man look at how quick that was bought back up I mean you know this daily candle here let’s drop it down to 4 hour here

Look I mean look at look at this three less than three hours man it’s down and right back up over 50% back up um you know right there at the S1 pivot especially if this thing closes above the uh the 4 Hour well the hourly pivot

Here um I I don’t see a whole lot of reason to believe it won’t continue up higher um but big picture is you know looking at least at 2648 right now um with file on here uh by the way if we look at this as a one and a two here you

Can see we hit wave three right here basically perfect yeah and then we pull back wave four the 100% so wave five should be a $10 61 kind of Cent Target area right there take that so yeah file still looking good I think it’s got a

Long way to go there got flushed it’s so crazy when even you know as many times as you see it to see what a like seven or eight% instant move in Bitcoin does to all coins right exactly exactly uh let me see here I know I’ve got where is

My actual chart oh it’s right here it’s with all these okay um so yeah I’ve got some ones here uh let’s jump here to ftt real quick because people are crazy um they’re still buying that we do not encourage you to trade the token of the

Dead exchange but hey it’s got a CH but if you’re charting it you know if you’re trading if you’re in it here’s what I’m seeing at the moment um you know we’ve got basically a 50% pullback on a flat here uh ending diagonal it looks like

With a throw under of the wedge so looking for an impulsive breakout above the wedge especially above the uh daily pivot here at about 3 $3 about $4 if we can get an impulsive break out that so large candle spread large Spike of volume I think that says wave four is

Done wave five’s got a minimum expected Target up here of $10.40 but damn we’ve got this fair value Gap all the way up here to uh $25.47 so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this potentially overextend on up there into that kind of area but minimally if we’re getting a

Rally from where we’re at here probably looking about a $10.40 Target initially anyway um if we do continue to come down further I mean my first thought is the S1 pivot here it’s right there around $19 and I’m sorry a193 and then we’d want to see a

Breakout back above the pivot if we got that we’d be long bit higher there uh we can note that we got this this dip down here right into that low volume node so if you guys are out there trading you’ve got your vpvr on over here your volume

By price level always be looking at these low volume nodes they give you a lot of area of resistance and support uh depending if you’re below or above them so again you see it hit that it’s bouncing we’ll see if we can get it rallied so we’re largely looking for

Opportunities here on these dips go ahead yeah yeah I mean right now the Rally’s back up you’ll see on a few of these charts they look really good so um it’s very encouraging right ldo usdt this is the three-day chart show you this nice resistance area here that

We’ve kind of again not saying this is an ascending triangle but we do have consolidating um toward resistance here we have the higher lows up toward this resistance area it looks like a one 1212 again think of things like ethereum that I’ve charted out there and there’s a few

Others look at you know this one right here um this interior wave three minimum expected Target of $11.97 the the larger three has a minimum expected Target of $245 so once we break out through this worst case scenarios is a little retest of it and then kind of continuing up

Toward those two Targets pretty easily I think um going up there that’s a nice chart yeah it’s I like that I like the consolidation for the resistance again yeah um op look at that retest yeah look at that retest blue sky right I mean that’s the all-time high yeah exactly

Exactly you know again ARB did that today too I’m not sure where it is now but ARB had a all-time high breakout just like uh a lot of these yeah yeah arb’s been running here lately too yeah yeah yeah but look at that I mean yeah

You know pull back to it we touched it right here on the way up this is a three day as well just to give you a kind of a cleaner picture here um and then you know a pullback here again just testing the pivot as support if that thing holds

There’s no reason why we shouldn’t be rallying and so I’ve got an initial Target of $516 or so um but usually if we’re testing the pivot here out the R1 usually we’ll just kind of come back toward the pivot again so you right above it here probably

Around where we are at the moment uh and then we’ll break out higher so um initial Target of $516 or so and then 2725 and then $60.97 up there so yeah I think these charts are great with r talking about hey just kind of hold on to it for a bit

Don’t don’t get shaking on the small movements don’t try and trade your way to you know the poor house uh every little is bad try to avoid that let’s see here I’ve got xlm um we’ve got this nice range sitting right here again same idea you know’ got

This great dip down into this uh support down here in this Wick which hasn’t been touched this is a whole bunch of demand that hasn’t been touched in this Wick so we got a hit here rallied it back up basically S1 pivot here on the daily is

Holding a support if we close above it and so again it’s a three-wave movement down you can see that on this rally up excuse me it’s just a seven there’s my 70 and a half retrace that’s what I was talking about um that’s an Institutional level almost to the tick

Uh So based on the height of the Swing High to swing low you you got a pattern Target of 17.3 cents um and then I’ve actually got targets of about 18 and a half cents and almost 21 cents up here 2.87 cents actually moving up there so just looking

For break was love the dinosaurs I love the dinosaurs yeah yeah things we the things we made so much money on back there in uh yeah what was it man what was it like 20 that was like 178 yeah yeah man we popping in and out of that

All the time but yeah if you’re breaking out here above what is this a 13.34% um again if you zoom in it’s it’s it looks like a three-wave movement down here so we’re just looking for a breakout back above getting out of this range it’s a 382

Pullback uh if we can get this break out here through the range we’re looking at $1 1894 $1.94 and then $21.45 if we do happen to break down not just a wick down but like really break down again we’ll look at the S1 pivot and then we want to see a rally and

Break back out above the pivot if we can do that here on the daily then that’ll set us up for a new high coming out through there and loving that what’s that I said loving that and again uh three-wave movement down here this is Rose people been

Asking about this it’s a three-wave move we’ve rallied you know 50% or more back up already back Above This previous um this previous um block here uh demand block so we’re back above that trying to close up back above that pivot again this is is the daily um so again if

We’re down three and we’re breaking out above that second wave there at 1467 0.14 67 uh initial Target of 8866 secondary Target of 31638 and third target of 0 41239 so none of those are straight up targets well maybe the first one but um you know with these larger targets just

Understand guys you’re going to Rally up pull back rally up pull back um but that’s where we kind of should be heading at least on these so some good opportunities good opportunities love it love it uh there I see uh some amazing by the way uh comments well here’s a question I’m

Curious as to how all the leverage got flushed out across all the cryptos it seemed planned and the big whales would have to have positions and everything uh I don’t think that the big whales have positions and everything I think that once they trigger Bitcoin everything else just goes and when you’re at

Historically High open interest and funding rates it does not take much in the spot Market to push it so uh that I think that’s more what happened I don’t think it’s like a single person who’s selling to make profit on every single token I think it just incidentally

Causes that sort of cascade well and a lot of it these uh you know these bigger crypto funds and whatnot you know they’ve got these um algorithms out there and you know they they’re they’re in multiple alts and and whatnot and so when you get a certain movement

According to the algorithm on bitcoin or on the alt itself or whatever it triggers them to sell which then maybe triggers other other their alos you know triggers and so you know it’s just what it is yeah so it’s not like some big conspiracy yeah and the final take that

I have to just correct because I keep saying it Katherine Woods knew she sold all her Bitcoins everyone is arguing about this in the comments she didn’t it’s a false narrative she sold her gbtc position because it went from a 50% discount to a 5% discount and she moved

The money that she made into bit which is the Bitcoin Futures ETF in holding for her own Bitcoin spot ETF is that is coming Kathy Woods would not liquidate all of her Bitcoin in advance of the approval of her own spot ETF that she needs to have massive assets under

Management it’s a false narrative that you guys are reading it’s not true and at the end of the day she has a 15% Max allocation to bitcoin adjacent stocks so she sells G coinbase and gptc as they do well rebalance her portfolio and keep it at 15% and she didn’t sell a single

Bitcoin only gbtc and some coinbase stock guys don’t buy the fun dude we have a huge audience we have a huge audience I said at the beginning yeah about emotion Nares yeah we have a huge audience here today Chris the opportunity to shill to them everything

Else you got going on since uh since they’re all here Hey listen man all I could say guys is you know I spent the last year and a half really being a lot more public than I usually am um I’ve called the I don’t know anybody really

That’s called more bottoms than I have over this in stocks and crypto over the last year and a half and I’ve explained how they worked and why they were happening whatnot you guys can learn to do this you really can um if you want to we’d love to have you members. texaswest

Capital.com we’ve got a group coaching uh yearly program that we get um and and you learn exactly what I do uh day in and day out I’m telling you it’s it’s worth every penny so and for those who haven’t been here before Chris taught me

Many years ago I I knew the basics of trading but he sharpened my knife made me a much better Trader removed all the emotions he’s the guy who I credit for being my mentor for largely All of My Success in trading so I don’t that there’s a reason he’s here every

Wednesday and it’s not because I just think he’s handsome although I’m sure he’s very yeah it’s the beard he’s here for the beard but yeah guys you should be following him checking out everything that he has going on and on that note you should also be subscribing to this

Channel liking it down below you’ve obviously seen that the numbers have exploded that has a coincidence no it’s because the market is exceptionally good we’re here every single day we were here every single day through the bare Market I am committed as I’ve said if you guys

Wonder the ethos of my channel very different than that of other YouTubers that have been successful I do not want to necessarily be the alpha like other YouTubers I don’t want to tell you what to do I don’t want to tell you what to trade I

Want to bring on experts and talk to them ask them questions so that I can learn and by proxy you can learn with me right so the alpha for my channel is always in the guests very rarely in me I consider myself more of a student than a

Teacher I always have and that’s what you can expect if you continue to show up here day in day out like we do and Chris is here every single Wednesday one of the three traders that we’ve chosen to have regularly on these streams we’ve got macro Monday with James lavish Mike

Mclone Dave iceberger absolutely incredible content thinking about breaking that out into its own complete Channel because it’s doing so well we got John Wick on Tuesdays Chris on Wednesdays Dan charting guy chart guys amazing Alpha on Thursdays and then I’ve got nlw on Fridays for the Friday five

And we’re going to be adding more I can promise you especially as these number goes up it inspires us to do more so please subscribe to the channel see everything we have coming Chris sorry you had to sit there through my pitch that’s all good you looked great you

Looked interested guys I got go Twitter space as we are back crypto Town Hall I expect there to be ABS absolutely massive and Chris will be there so come join us in 15 minutes uh Cryptor toown Hall is the Twitter account that’s on thank you guys I appreciate it subscribe

Like see you tomorrow we’re gonna have another big one tomorrow I’ve got James saford from Bloomberg tomorrow and Haider Rafi from okx so we’re gonna keep this train rolling thanks guys see you tomorrow bye Chris thank you Let’s dop