Gold, Silver & Oil in 2024: Gary Wagner Charts His Forecast

In an interview with Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron, veteran commodity analyst Gary Wagner discusses his predictions for the 2024 commodity markets. Wagner dives deep into the dynamics of gold, silver, and oil, examining the potential impacts of Federal Reserve policies, global geopolitical tensions, and the intricacies of the US dollar.

Viewer Note: Gary Wagner contacted Kitco News to clarify that he misspoke in the interview regarding his gold price forecast for 2024. Gary intended to say the gold price could range between $2,250 and $2,300, not up to $3,200 as Gary said in the interview.

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0:00 – Introduction with Jeremy Szafron: Overview of Commodity Markets
0:58 – Federal Reserve’s Influence on Gold Prices in 2024
2:20 – Gary Wagner’s Analysis Techniques for Predicting Market Trends
4:44 – Gold Market Dynamics and Fibonacci Retracement Analysis
6:08 – Nature’s Blueprint in Financial Markets and its Application
7:23 – Gary Wagner’s Gold Price Projections for 2024
8:22 – Factors Influencing the Rise in Gold Prices
9:20 – Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Gold and Safe Haven Assets
10:19 – Dollar Strength, BRICS, and Global Trade Implications
16:36 – Silver Market Outlook and Technical Analysis
21:22 – Extended Geopolitical Crises and Their Effect on Precious Metals
24:24 – US Dollar Analysis and Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy
31:02 – Wagner’s Perspective on Oil Market Trends and Price Fluctuations
33:00 – Closing Remarks and Market Opportunities Discussion

#gold #economy #goldandsilver #commoditiesmarket #2024outlook #oil #fed #brics #opec
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Kco news Outlook 2024 is brought to you by I trust Capital buy and sell crypto gold and silver with your IRA hey everyone I’m Jeremy saffron and this is Kitco news now today we’re going to be taking a deep dive into the world of Commodities focusing on Gold Silver

And oil now the Commodities Market has been a hive of activity recently with significant movements across these key assets gold of course h a record high in December of about $2,100 an ounce while silver has been attracting investors during these volatile times and we’re also keeping an eye on oil prices now to

Discuss these Dynamics and give us an Outlook at what lies ahead for 2024 we’re joined by Gary Wagner he’s our expert in charts and commodity forecast Gary welcome to the show let’s chart it out thank you so very much for having me happy New Year to all of our viewers and

It’s great to be back on Kito at the beginning of the year love it well we’re happy to have you I mean 2024 is no doubt starting out fairly interesting now today we saw the FED just released their minutes saying okay we are doing all right on the inflation train not

Quite at that 2% but don’t expect rate clim Cuts rather to immediately take effect in 2024 they’re looking at maybe towards the end of the year now much of the market has already priced in a few of these Cuts so I’m curious Gary as we see the Federal Reserve transitioning

From quantitative tightening to potential easing gold prices have shown a marked response with the policy shift and gold’s current valuation I mean what’s your perspective in Gold here throughout 2024 it seems we’re in a little bit of a corrective stage today absolutely and it’s actually something I had hoped for but in terms

Of My overall Outlook I’m exceedingly bullish I’ll talk about where I’m looking at as potential upside but with the fed’s announcement in December that they are in fact pivoting from a monetary policy that includes rate hikes and then maintaining those High rates elevated for a long time that was quote

Jerome Pal’s Doctrine uh longer and higher and he announced for the first time that starting in this year there would be a series of rate cuts and that’s an exceedingly strong and important pivot Market participants have been waiting for that for quite some time I believe that there’s over

Optimism as to when those will actually get enacted there’s a lot of talk about we believe the first one will be in March my senses and this is simply going by the SCP which is the summary of uh economic projections or the Dot Plot that was released in December that it’s

Going to be probably near the mid or end of Q2 before we see any rate cuts and secondly what he mentioned Powell was that there would be a series of quarter percent rate Cuts three of them uh totaling a cut of 3/4 of a percent to Fed funds

Rates you know you you you’re showing this chart here I want to get back into your outlook for 2024 explain to the audience a little bit about how your fundamentals worked here how the technicals worked and how you got there well I’ve been doing this for a while I was classically trained in

Western analytical tools but I gravitated fairly quickly into some of the Eastern studies such as Japanese candlesticks before that I work with things like Fibonacci retracement Elliot wave and kind of discounted things like stochastics and RSI I still use move moving average but my technique has

Always been uh the big picture so I begin with the fundamentals I look at what’s going on in terms of events and how they might influence the price of a stock or commodity and then I use technicals for specific entry exits and targets so I call that a hybrid Trader

MH interesting now tell us what we’re seeing on this chart Gary and where you think that this Market will be going well this is a daily Candlestick chart of gold and what I have plotted basically is a Fibonacci retracement and the reason for doing that is as this

Market hit this high and of course this is back at the beginning of December 4th on a Monday it came down with a pretty strong correction to approximately 1985 and then began to cycle higher moving as high as about well well over 2,000 but once the

New year started we saw some weakness in the market today is a strong day down and so what these Dash lines here represent different Fibonacci important levels to watch this one here which is where the current pricing is at 2049 is based on a 38.6% retrace typically when you look at Fibonacci

What we’re looking at is first of all his sequence which is a very easy formula you start with zero and one you add them you get one um then you go 1 + 1 = 2 2 + 1al 3 and so forth and all of our viewers are familiar with that when

They think about a nautilus shell the way it revolves and the reason that is such an important technique is that the relationship between each of those numbers is 618 per or 1.68% to give you a visual illustration it appears it’s a blueprint of nature so when you look at my hand for example

This digit right here compared to this digit this digit is compressed by 618 618 so it’s Nature’s Way of growth so to speak and the financial markets picked it up years ago and found some real relevancy in it so we’re looking at where could gold drop to because my

Sense is this will be a shortterm correction not that deep and it will return to a bullish demeanor so if it breaks through this level at 248 the next level I would look at is is 50% which is not a fib number but used that’s at 2018 and a deep retracement

Would come down to about 1987 and I’m not expecting it to go that deep but that in essence is how we use uh Fibonacci retracements interesting now we have no Crystal bar here but looking towards the future with the correction that happened today uh where are you anticipating

First quarter second quarter for gold to go here timing is more difficult than price projection my projection by year end is between uh $2,250 and about 3200 and that was based upon uh doing what’s called a Fibonacci extension which is basically putting retracement on its head um and that is my forecast for

2024 so I am exceedingly bullish yeah that’s interes I mean based on your forecast gold could obviously reach or even surpass the $2,500 per ounce Mark for this year I’m curious though could you detail the main factors that you believe will contribute to the rise absolutely first we talked about it

Briefly was fed monetary policy changing from quantitative easing to um from quantitative tightening to easing and the reason that’s important is gold is very sensitive to interest rates interest rates moving up create a bearish undertone for it interest rates going down is bullish for gold and the

Reason for that is gold doesn’t yield any interest on it so it becomes more of a uh favorable asset to hold during times of low fixed income returns that is going to be a process that is happens over three years because the Federal Reserve itself projected uh

24 25 and 26 and how they’re going to bring that down and bring down inflation because of course their ultimate Target is to get inflation to a 2% level so that’s exceedingly important and that will be a multi-year process the next thing that is really on my radar is the

Geopolitical tension that currently exists we have a conflict in um Russia Ukraine we have a conflict in the Middle East and forget about Kim kind of talking about what he’s going to do but these are real issues and in fact when we look at what’s going on in Ukraine

Russia’s really ramped up the military um activity to where they’re launching tens of or if not hundreds of missiles into Ukraine and anytime you have an extended geopolitical Rift so to speak that is going to take out the safe haven aspect in other words with the Federal Reserve what we are looking at

Is making it favorable by lower interest rates but Safe Haven is a little bit different because in times of uncertainty gold tends to do uh much better one other thing that I think is critical to where we see gold go over the next couple of years is dollar strength or weakness and so

Recently in the big picture we’ve seen the dollar hit 107 on the dollar Index and slowly decline it’s been exceedingly strong we’ll look at a chart when whenever you ask me to but exceedingly strong over the last three days however what is different now than we have seen

Maybe 10 years ago is countries organizing together bricks which is a series of of countries that are attempting to take the dollar and Dethrone it from its status as the dominant currency for global trade and that goes into oil because oil is traded in Petro dollars in fact Iran and Russia

Signed an agreement about a week ago that they would now trade and sell oil back and forth in their local currencies of course that would have a negative effect on the dollar so it’s going to be Federal Reserve monetary policy it’s going to be geopolitical landscape dollar strength

Or weakness to me are the primary factors that I’m looking at currently yeah you know you mentioned that chart before Gary let’s bring that chart up now and show the audience because I’m I’m very curious you know when you’re analyzing various chart types what specific patterns or

Indicators do you find the most reliable for predicting Market movements in gold and also in silver well there’s the I use a combination there’s there’s not just one I use Japanese candlesticks for entry levels for information on potential key reversals or pivots I use Fibonacci extensions and retracements to chart plausible points

If a Market’s moving up where is it likely to find resistance along with recent Market tops for support I look at Market bottoms along with other tools such as Fibonacci retracements at the lower end for forecasting especially if we’re forecasting a market that has just

Hit a new high and and could hit a all-time new record high we use Fibonacci extensions the last thing I use is called Elliot wave and it’s either loved or hated by fellow technicians but simply put his philosophy or theory is that when a market goes up or down it

Doesn’t go straight up or straight down so he has broken up a bullish movement into a series of eight steps and the first five he labels as the impulse phase waves 1 2 3 4 and 5 where one is in the direction of the trend so in a

Bullish Market as you can see on the screen this would be a move up where the Market’s moving from 1841 up to here and that’s impulse wave number one that will be follow followed by a corrective period or wave two and then you go to what’s typically the

Longest of the impulse waves wave three and then a correction the way I like to explain it is rather than a market just going parabolic straight up or straight down it tends to move in a series of stair steps and so it’s these stair

Steps that allow us a way to look at the market and ascertain where the current price is in relationship to different time Cycles so you basically look for it to go for five waves up you can see that I’ve drawn this line above because this is my

Forecast for well above and to trade to a new price High but before that we’re in a corrective period we want to see if it finds support at 250 or if it’s going to go a little lower and then we would look at 2025 so let’s assume that gold continues

To drop what we want to look for at the bottoms in other words if you’re looking at this wave down we call it a four you can see there’s different colored candles but right here at the bottom they’re very very small bodied and that is called a doy in terms of the

Candlestick type itself the way we create a Candlestick is the same as a bar chart we use all four data points open low high and close in a bar chart you have a horizontal slash on the left side representing the open and when it closes a horizontal

Slash when it closes the difference in the Candlestick is you draw a rectangle around the range between the open and close and you color it typically green when it closes above the open and red when it closes below the open which is to me one of the most interesting differences between the

Western Trader and the Eastern Trader and it’s the way that they look at Price movement over time so for example if I said to you um that gold closed $15 lower today you would TR ically assume that I’m talking about today’s close in relationship to yesterday’s close correct correct okay the Japanese

Believe that the importance is not on a closed Clos basis they look at every trading session as a battle and it is relationship between where the Market opens during the session and closes and that’s why these individual candlesticks are so powerful for example this top has a 2-day pattern called an engulfing

Bearish and that is a signal of a potential reversal to the downside so by combining Elliot wave Fibonacci and candlesticks we have a system that kind of covers a lot of bases yeah no kidding I mean it’ll be interesting and fascinating to see where the resistance is here and and where

Gold will settle come the end of this week let’s transition a little bit over to Silver if you could bring up that chart I mean it’s such an interesting commodity it’s always kind of been the underdog and I want to talk a little bit about it here where are we going with

Silver I mean the last I look spot silver prices were around $23 2290 uh what’s your call for 2024 double that that’s an interesting thing to ask because the one of the key differences between gold and silver when I started in the industry silver was the little

Sister of gold so to speak and they both tended to move in tandem they both were sensitive to inflation they were both sensitive to geopolitical risk they were both sensitive to risk on or risk off how the equities markets were doing however we saw silver go to an all-time record high at about

$50 the first time gold hit above 1900 middle of 2011 and then on the subsequent new price highs in gold silver kind of fizzled out it found a trading range that finds resistance at around $30 and so when I when you asked you I think it’s going to double Futures right

Now are trading at 2320 that would be about $43 I would like to believe yes historically speaking and looking at the technical data silver has been unable to do that now something has to kind of give many people talk about that there’s a scarcity in silver I’m not

Privileged to that data but if that’s the case that would be highly supportive of it I am looking for silver to move Higher by the end of the year but it first needs to take out $26 per ounce here again is a daily uh Candlestick chart of silver you have this high that

Came in December 4th the same same with gold when we saw that reach an apex or a short-term Apex and from there it has come down 61% and then began to move up now I’m using a data set that starts at these lows and these lows occur in October I

Call this the the October rally there was a geopolitical event of course that kind of sparked that but that took gold substantially higher it took silver from about $20 80 up to 26 when you look at the percentage gain in that it’s uh quite a lot but from there it retraced

And if you notice there’s a line here at 61.8% that is where silver found support it then found resistance at just below the 23.6% which occurs at $25 now it’s moving down so I want to see if silver continues down will it find support report here if it does we

Will look for some sort of a Candlestick pattern such as this pattern here which is basically a variation off a three River Morning Star and I’d like to see if we get that bounce because as a technical Trader we’re not aware of a pivot or key reversal till it’s actually already

Occurred in other words you see that V in the market I’m trying to pick a market price point that it will find support as it’s moving lower to me is trying to catch a hot knife um through the air you simply don’t have the information you need to

See that pivot first and a pivot can fail you can see a key reversal and and that of course fails but that’s what we look for so in terms of silver it has been under pressure it’s currently trading down and at 2320 I want to yeah

2320 I want to look at it at about 2290 for potential support if he break if it breaks at it would be 2200 on the upside resistance is 25 and above that 26 yeah it’s been so interesting I mention you mentioned the geopolitical situations that kind of saw the last

Movement in silver I don’t think 2024 is going to uh necessarily see a lack of geopolitical situations it seems that there’s ongoing crisis all around this world unfort but what are your in a hypothetical situation what should we be looking for is it a geopolitical situation where do you think we might

Break out of that resistance well that’s two questions in terms of the geopolitical issues we have Ukraine and Russia have been at Battle let’s say at War for almost two years and that’s an extended period of time typically we have seen gold or silver move up on what I like to

Call Saber rattling it’s threats that kind of don’t result in any major conflict there is no way that we can say that the crisis in Ukraine is a minor conflict or a short-term conflict um Russia and Ukraine are at Polar Opposites in terms of their goals so

Ukraine has vowed to keep its Sovereign Nation Sovereign Russia has resolved that they’re going to take back what is theirs and it leaves very little room for a compromise that both would agree to because it’s so polarized right and because of that I think that it could go on longer I pray

That it is shortened but I personally don’t see an endgame just off of my head so I believe that’s going to be with us for a while in terms of the the Middle Eastern crisis right now um the Israeli government has stated this is going to

Be months and this was just a few days ago not days until we accomplish our task and then you’ve got the third Wild Card which is Iran and their proxy soldiers that are paid and funded by Iran in Lebanon in the Gaza in Yemen in

Syria and in Iraq and to boot they have now been attacking military bases and I believe a couple of ships which to me is exceedingly alarming the last thing the United States wants to do I believe I don’t know is to have it become more of a global conflict or spread that from

Being a regional conflict and I believe that Iran is attempting to do just that so those three items could be with us for a while and if they are that’s going to be exceedingly bullish for the price of gold which is something I’d ra I’d rather it be peace and gold stay stable

But gold reacts to geopolitical uncertainty and unrest and we’re certainly seeing that we cannot say we’re in a time of Peace yeah no unfortunately we can’t uh you know we’ll keep an eye on that obviously Kito news and those developments it’s always interesting to look at Commodities from a geopolitical situation I’m curious

Though at the beginning here Gary you were talking about the US dollar and I want you to bring up that chart and I want you to talk a little bit about the US dollar I mean we’ve seen the green back rise recently usually that’s not a

Good thing for the gold market as we know but I’m curious you know how do you think the fed’s monetary policy this year will impact the dollar in 2024 and and what’s your forecast here well it imp to answer it impacts it directly uh the relationship between gold and the

Dollar is 100% of a negative correlation its inverse simply because gold is paired against the dollar in terms of its value so when the dollar Rises gold will go down an equivalent percentage amount and as you can see from this chart again it’s a daily

And if we look back to July of 2023 the dollar Index was roughly at 99 from there it skyrocketed up to over 107 now it has been at 114 it has been higher but this is relative to uh looking at the dollar index over time a pretty high

Value and then we saw it come down really from October the same time gold began to run up we saw the dollar come down it broke through a key level at around the 78% retracement right in here this two-day pattern that I’m pointing to is known as a piercing line and a

Piercing line is simply when you have a defined downtrend you have a large red candle which we get here that’s followed by a green candle and again a green candle opens and closes higher but in this case it opened below the closing price of the prior candle and it clo it

Needs to close at or above the midpoint which it did you do not actually act on that unless you have what’s called a confirming candle which is on the following day it’s a green candle with a higher high and a higher low so we did

Get that buy signal but we are now right at a potential resistance area which again is the 61.8% FIB retracement at about 10250 I believe that longer term we could see more more weakness in the dollar that certainly isn’t the case over the last few days but if you look

At the decline of the dollar over this period of time you see that it’s again not straight down it’s basically a stair step where it might move down and it’s got this hard move down here in November and then it moves higher for five days

Then it comes and makes a lower low goes sideways and down find support at the 61.8% retracement trades as high as a 38% retracement and it finds resistance then begins to go lower the reason I truly believe in using Fibonacci numbers is that you can find so many occasions

In which at certain points such as just below here or finding resistance here or finding support here it is acutely accurate in many cases in determining support and resistance levels because the way that we want to look in support and resistance is they’re part and parcel of the same

Thing if I’m in a building complex on the second floor and I look down that supports me if I go to the four first floor and look up that’s resistance but it’s the same floor so support and resistance can act as the same where we’ll see something be a level of

Resistance and then become support but I find that a very easy technique to use to provide Traders with a lot of information I would say 90 if not 100% of the trading platforms allow you to create a Fibonacci retracement if not it can be done by hand it’s available to

Look it up on Google and stuff but all of the platforms actually allow you to do a fib retracement and there is some real value there yeah I mean you you’re showing that Spike here in October as we saw it come off you mentioned that there could be some resistance in and around

These levels for for the next say 3 4 months that we’re not seeing on the chart there historically uh what where where do you think this is going well what we want to do is kind of compress that and give me a second to do that so now we have a much bigger

Picture so now we’re going back a couple of years and these are the highs that I’m speaking about at 114 it went from 114 down to 19 99 that is a 15% decline in the value of the dollar relative to the basket of currencies it trades against and I would

Venture to say that this Spike up here probably correlates to around a 50% of this move down um if it holds the level at 99 I would expect to see a bounce if it does not then we really need need to go a little bit further back and to do that I simply

Want to convert our chart into a weekly so that we can get up a much better idea and to find lows below this point is pretty easy this here is 88 these lows here now this of course is 2021 and 2020 if it does not hold this area I would

Then begin to look at different tops such as this at 98 this top here at 9 6 in other words in terms of technical trading we look at data sets over time and we look at what it did at certain price points there’s a good chance that

It could hold but if it does break this it would be what’s called a technical freeall because it could easily fall by five or 6% right now we have tenative support at at current pricing I am not convinced longterm that that’s going to hold I would look for

For dollar weakness to be prevalent throughout next year okay yeah great Insight I mean it’ll be interesting to watch how this plays out obviously with an upcoming election year nobody wants a bad economy as they go into Power I’m curious here let’s talk a little bit and

Switch gears over to oil no pun intended I mean there’s been price fluctuations all over it’s had they’ve had a wide ranging impact as well I believe WTI Crude currently sitting around 7273 what’s your thoughts on the oil Market coming into this year I was exceedingly surprised to see the recent

Lows I think they came in in the low 60s and it was unusual because it wasn’t seasonal I the explanation of course is always going to be based on supply and demand I think that what we’re looking at right now is the conflicts in the Middle East could

Affect the flow of oil but then the conflict in Russia could have affected oil and exactly the opposite occurred in other words it didn’t seem to have a real detrimental impact on getting oil to the various countries that use it I think the reason is is that the countries that are having skirmishes

Such as Russia depends on oil sales to fund their military to fund their ongoing things along with their government their social programs and whatnot so even during periods of conflict we have seen the flow of oil really come in unabated and that to me was a good thing

But I didn’t expect it I would expect oil to remain between 65 and $85 throughout the year and continue to trade within that range I think that it would take a a Black Swan or unexpected event uh to change that yeah yeah I I I tend to agree with

You especially as the US continues to bolster their reserves while buying millions of barrels uh down there uh Gary thanks for this uh your insights into the complex world of Commodities have been invaluable of course from gold to Silver the US Dollars and a little bit of oil thanks for sharing your

Analysis and helping us navigate these financial markets thank you so much for having me it was great to be here and uh I think that this next year is going to provide exceptional opportunities for investors Traders and Market participants I’m excited I’m excited as well thanks for

Joining us and I’m Jerry Safford for kcko news don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for the latest and download our app where you can see these prices in real time thanks again for joining us kco news Outlook 2024 is brought to you by it trust Capital buy and sell

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