In this video, I delve into my unfiltered thoughts on the potential impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price, especially with a crucial week ahead. I start by discussing key technical analysis aspects, particularly focusing on a significant price range and the Fibonacci retracement levels, highlighting historical resistance points before Bitcoin halvings. I then shift to the speculative impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF, considering potential capital inflow and its effect on Bitcoin’s price, possibly pushing it to around $61,000. However, I also consider the possibility of market volatility, including a ‘sell the news’ event and leverage trading dynamics. Throughout, I emphasize the importance of technical analysis and historical data in understanding Bitcoin’s price movements, while acknowledging the uncertainty and potential for unexpected developments in the market. My aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the various factors at play as we approach this critical juncture in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
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I want to give my unfiltered thoughts on what I think is going to happen with Bitcoin price with this Bitcoin spot ETF this is a huge week coming up so there’s two things to lay the groundwork for this video number one there is this range many of you are very well aware of
That I’m watching on the price charts just in regards to the next bull market the bull cycle Bitcoin breaking the bull market doors that is this lower high Fibonacci retracement it’s a technical move on the macro it is around $48,000 at the 618 line up to
$57,000 at the 786 line now that that 618 line I just want to give you an idea prior to the Bitcoin having that 618 line around $47,000 is massive resistance the reason I say that is because the bull market doors in previous cycles for instance last cycle pre Bitcoin having Bitcoin
Made a really nice run up to the 618 line that was around 13,000 the having before that 2016 having preh having Bitcoin made a really nice move out of the bare Market to the 618 line right then it was around $800 right so $800 pre Bitcoin having then the next cycle
$133,000 pre Bitcoin having each time it fell after hitting those levels right now this cycle around that level is around $48,000 so that’s number one the technical analysis of it all because I think it’s very important Bitcoin hasn’t even made the move to that area pre Bitcoin having so that move from a
Historical perspective is normal if Bitcoin did that put aside Bitcoin spot ETF okay now let’s talk about the Bitcoin spot ETF I I just saw somebody posted on X an estimation I think three and A5 billion dollar of inflow for the Bitcoin spot ETF in the first week at today’s prices
It is around 79,000 Bitcoin imagine $779,000 Bitcoin being scooped up and I saw somebody kind of did the math this could equate to around a $61,000 Bitcoin so there’s this premise there’s this case that Bitcoin off of this week’s news the approval and the inflow of you
Know Capital scooping up BTC it could it could achieve $61,000 Bitcoin so now we have this piece of data in play with that that that initial lower high Fibonacci resistance right 47,000 to 58,000 I first want to say I’m going to give you my thoughts on what I think is
Going to happen I want to say if Bitcoin breaks first off if if bre if Bitcoin breaks nice nicely above the 618 line at 48,000 that’s a big move that’s something it really has not done but if it actually breaks a above that line and approaches the 786 at
$57,000 pre- Bitcoin having and then it breaks Above $57,000 This is massive this is absolutely massive for Bitcoin right we have a we have the short-term uh symmetrical triangle shorter term symmetrical triangle we’ve been talking about it’s a $50,000 Target uh I think that is a very normal move for Bitcoin
With or without the Bitcoin spot ETF I think that’s an area that bitcoin price could achieve very easily this week in the coming days especially off of an approval maybe a pump off of the approval but I I want to just mention if it breaks those bull market doors if it
Breaks at 786 at 57,000 Game Changer now let me just put this out there and number one I could be way wrong and number two if I’m wrong you you feel free to come back and roast me and be like dude you were wrong Bitcoin just absolutely pumped it demolished the
Bull market doors we are we bitcoin’s doing something it’s never done I want it to do that I want to be wrong I really want to be wrong but I just have to I have to just kind of when I do these videos I like to just really try and be
As open about what I’m thinking as possible I never expect anything right so I’m anticipating it’s potentially it could happen Bitcoin could break through $60,000 and do something it hasn’t done in previous Cycles but at the same time when I really start thinking about it when I really start visualizing the
News coming out right when I start visualizing it I can’t help but think that there is going to be so much volatility the market and with with all the speculation and all of even the leverage Longs probably trying to time this and prepare remember this this is such an
Early space I know it seems so big to you and I we we spend so much time here this is such an early space and it’s it’s just so open for manipulation and I think I think off of bit quin’s body TF approval and there’s no guarantee it’s going to be approved
I’m I’m fairly confident it’s going to be it would be a massive mistake on the secc’s part there would be so many lawsuits if it didn’t get approved but if it gets approved I think there’s going to be pump to upside crash back down I think it’s just
Going to be an insane roller coaster and it’s going to be a very volatile sideways almost Trend but we’re talking when I say sideways like pump to the upside crash back to the downside I really think it’s just such a a a suitable setup for these markets leverage Longs getting liquidated as
They try and time the pump off of the news crashing back down shorts coming into play they get liquidated as it pumps right back off of sometime type of short shortterm uh support up and down volatility and all the while and I think this is what’s
Important to me as a macro investor the Bitcoin spot ETF this whole era and and all this speculation anticipation it’s going to be over soon and we’re going to enter kind of this new Dynamic this new realm of crypto where everybody’s not talking about it all the time this is
Going to be in the past and we’re going to for get about this and it’s going to be right back to the technicals it’s going to be right back to the technical analysis the charts and that’s what matters for me as a macro investor for whether whether you’re in if you’re a
Bitcoin only person whether you’re Bitcoin and altcoin person whether you’re an only altcoin person the technicals and even the Bitcoin chart the road map of crypto Cycles is really if you’re a macro person is really all that matters so for me I think there’s going to be a ton of volatility I think
At the end of the day I will be so surprised if Bitcoin manages to break the bull market doors pre- Bitcoin having I will be so excited I will be so hype but I will be so surprised I really think when the question is is it different this time is the Bitcoin spot
ETF going to launch crypto and Bitcoin into an earlier bull market meaning all this happening pre Bitcoin heaven that’s what makes it different if Bitcoin breaks these bull market doors breaks through $57,000 at the 786 line that will be something has never happened it will be so bullish
But on the flip side if it’s not different this time and then the news comes out there’s crazy volatility maybe a pump maybe a pump into the Fibonacci area some somewhere up to 55,000 and then it cools off and starts falling consolidating it will be just like every other cycle
And we will learn another lesson that it wasn’t this it wasn’t different this time and Bitcoin and crypto they really don’t care about anything other than respecting the fouryear cycles and respecting really the charts and that’s why the charts have been so helpful for me is because it has been so consistent
And the data that is there historically it’s not definite that it’s going to repeat but the data has just been so on point in terms of allowing me person to be able to anticipate well what’s going to happen in this situation will it do something different this time and almost
Almost like clockwork it just hasn’t really done anything different this bear cycle that we just survived has been almost exactly like the previous bear Cycles even from a timeline perspective even from a percentage to the downside perspective now the exit out of the bear into the bull and this pivot that we’re
In right now is almost identical to all of the previous Cycles so I’m trying to just wait wait to see what Bitcoin does with this Fibonacci range again 40 48,000 to $57,000 the data is there $61,000 based off of speculation on on what this Bitcoin ETF could could do for Bitcoin
That’s there let’s see if it happens I will be so excited if it happens it will be so fun doing a video if bitcoin’s breaking the bull market doors truly before the Bitcoin having but I just want to put it out there I will be so surprised so that’s just that’s just my
Unfiltered thoughts everybody again I have no idea what’s going to happen I’m just kind of expressing to you what I’m thinking I could be way wrong about the Fibonacci uh resistance and I I think in this case I I wouldn’t mind being wrong at all but I wanted to just give some
Thoughts out there as we go into this new week let me know your thoughts everybody I appreciate each and every one of you for for watching hit the Subscribe hit the like I’ll see you in the next video God bless
30 Comments
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