Stocks bearish – bitcoin bullish?

Stocks – failed cycles
Bitcoin still bullish
Short housing
TA & Live Trades

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[Applause] All right hello and welcome to cam Finance I’m your boy camel and today I want to talk a little bit about what the data is pointing at for January and there’s some mixed messages there’s some mixed messages I also want to talk a little bit about Bitcoin of course and

Some lovely Bitcoin charts that I want to show you then I’m going to talk a little bit about this short that I initiated yesterday on the housing market using vnq as the proxy and then I think we’ll be saying goodbye and wishing each other a lovely weekend

Since this is of course a Friday so without further Ado the S&P 500 was down for the first three days of this year and it hasn’t been down the first four since 1978 so the question is why is this significant well it means the Santa Claus rally failed this time around okay

The Santa Claus rally failed and that actually has some somewhat difficult implications going forward so here you can see a bunch of times that the Santa Claus rally failed and what happened thereafter was January was red January finished red in all cases except one and even q1’s results or returns I should

Say were pretty muted so tells us to keep an open mind about perhaps not seeing the strong performance in January and q1 that I have been talking about now of course this was always a hypothesis it was always going to be tested nothing ever works perfectly and it doesn’t necessarily mean just because

We failed at Santa Claus rally that we can’t have a set of exceptional circumstances show up but data is data and facts are the facts and the facts and the data show that typically when we get a failed Santa Claus rally we should be open to seeing a red January and a

Muted q1 this is actually further supported by election year data now of course this year is an election year and q1 of an election year typically we would expect to see muted results so this of course is not something I was looking forward to seeing this is not

Something I wanted to see given that my base case expectation is we’re going to have this big blowoff top and then probably see some cuts and something break and you you already know the deal right you’ve seen this a bunch of times but like I said data is data it’s not

About being right or wrong as I’ve said a million times it’s about being on the right side of the market yeah I would rather I would rather this be flat wrong but me not lose money than me be completely right about this and still somehow get wrecked so it’s not about

Being right or wrong it’s about not being dogmatic not marrying an idea and like I said the data is the data the facts are the facts and both the election year cycle is telling us to be open to a muted q1 performance and so is the lack of a santa rally also telling

Us to be open to muted q1 performance and even a red January however there is one caveat here and that is that last year we saw a gain in the S&P 500 North of 20% and usually when we see a gain north of 20% it tells us that with 80%

Probability we should be able to see an up year with an average return of 12.1% this year or the year after we get that 20% plus gain in the S&P 500 so here’s the table right here’s all the years and the returns that were north of

20% and you can see that in 80% of the cases we were higher the following year with an average and median gain of 10 and 12.1% respectively so it’s not out of the question that we could see high performance this year it’s not out of the question that we couldn’t get an

Exceptional set of circumstances turn up this is extremely exceptional set of circumstances because it’s not often that we get a parabolic blow off top in Risk assets right that’s not something that’s common place so we have been expecting exceptional circumstances for some time and now it’s finally at that

Point where I can’t keep moving the goal posts right this is either going to go now and I’m going to be right about this or we’re going to have to abandon ship we’re going to have to abandon ship here and say okay we’re not doing this if we

Start to base here if we start to do something like this we start to Trend down then pretty hard for me to see a blow off top coming out of that kind of structure so it’s not the first time my hypothesis has been tested and it certainly won’t be the last but it’s

Important that when the market is trying to give you hints when the market is sending subtle Tails such as this in a failed Santa Claus rally it’s important that you pay attention okay there’s only so many hints and tells that the market will hand you and if you completely

Ignore them through your own bias and Dogma then you’re just going to be painting yourself into a corner and making your own life more difficult much better to accept you don’t know anything and you’ll let the market tell you under the hood things still look broken okay

And they can remain broken for a lot longer than I can remain solvent I can assure you of that but just take a look at this because it really does put it into perspective this is the time it took for the US to print its first trillion dollars almost 200 years right

But the second trillion took only eight years and if we move down this column you can see that the 18th trillion took just seven months to turn up this is indeed the same behavior as a drug addict and of course this can’t continue forever can it continue for a while yes

Yes but of course this cannot continue forever and this is why I spend so much time talking about Bitcoin this is why Bitcoin Remains the apex predator asset because Bitcoin cannot be printed and inflated like fiat currency can and speaking of Bitcoin okay former city execs are launching a Bitcoin depository

Receipts which are securities backed by Bitcoin that do not need SEC approval so pretty interesting time to be alive I’m certainly going to be interested to see what comes out of this if anything some of the most interesting data I could find yesterday was this here from bitwise okay so bitwise surveyed 437

Financial advisors and they found that less than half of all the advisers expect to see a spot Bitcoin ETF approved in 2024 so there’s a lot of people that like to keep coming at me and saying the ETF is priced in right but you just don’t seem to get it okay

The ETF isn’t priced in and you can see that here okay if half of the financial advisers in charge of moving money in and out are not expecting to see an ETF how could it possibly be priced in and you can also tell tell this because a

Little piece of news whether it’s in One Direction or the other whether it’s fake or real moves the Bitcoin price significantly so again less than half of all advisers actually expect to see this ETF this year only 39% of advisers thought that we would get one approved

In the year 2024 versus the Bloomberg ETF analysts which peg this likelihood of a January approval at 90% but with that said the vast majority see the approval as a major Catalyst 88% of advisers interested in purchasing Bitcoin we’re waiting until after the spot Bitcoin ETF is approved so 88% of

These advisers are actually interested in purchasing Bitcoin they just don’t think they’re going to get an ETF this year so what does that tell you it tells you that this thing isn’t priced in and if it is to be approved in you know whether it’s in January or whether it’s

Later in the year 88% of these advisors are looking to put their Capital that they control into Bitcoin they also found that access is a major barrier to adoption only 19% of the advisers that they surveyed said they’re currently able to buy crypto in client accounts

Again it tells you that a tsunami of money is parked on the site but it just can’t get in yet because of these regulatory hurdles and of course the custody hurdles bitwise also found that once you invest you tend to stay invested or want to increase exposure

98% of these advisers Who currently have an allocation to crypto in client accounts plan to either maintain or increase exposure in 2024 tells us to keep an open mind about seeing major Capital inflows using this ETF and when it’s approved this thing certainly in my opinion is not priced in and with all

That said the charts still doing chart things aren’t they okay check this out flash crash little bit of sideways and then boom Parabola flash crash a little bit of sideways perhaps and then boom Parabola again pretty difficult to find a really bearish chart out there at the moment we’ve also seen bitcoin price

Break out retest and look to resume off of the upper Ballinger bands on the daily chart with the Ballinger bands modified to one month time frame again tells us to keep an open mind about seeing another repeat of this right here and speaking of Ballinger bands John Ballinger the creator of said Ballinger

Bands thinks that Bitcoin is set to break higher so again take a good look at this right we’ve had the squeeze we’ve had the retest of the lower Ballinger band close back above and now we are looking to resume to the upside again John Ballinger himself thinks it

Breaks higher and finally I’ve left myself this little note here this little set of notes to go with this short so yesterday I posted this to Twitter I said look called out 4 weeks ahead of time in that video that was called something along the lines of long

Bitcoin short property I said updated today meaning yesterday’s video I called it out again and I said look we got breakdown retest and resumption in play I am officially short vnq as of right now so we got that breakdown retest resumption you can’t really see it here

But if you zoom in andjw your line for yourself you’ll see it we broke down retested it and then started to resume lower so I’m officially short vnq and we’ll see now the reason I put this here is because a lot of people were asking me questions about this and and this is

Just one of those trades in my opinion where there’s not really any logic to this short okay this is a purely technical setup in a way there is an argument both ways there’s plenty of reasonably logical sounding Arguments for why this thing would break down there’s also plenty of reasonably

Logical arguments logical sounding Arguments for why this thing might continue higher but the common questions I keep getting about this housing short are what about the 18.7 year real estate cycle yeah what about it so it’s absolutely a valid cycle it is absolutely something that has shown

Consistency over many many many years it certainly exists as a Cycles Trader you know you have no problem convincing me that a cycle exists a lot of people don’t believe in Cycles but obviously you know as a cycle trader you know I acknowledge this cycle I understand but

From time to time the Cycles can top early okay they can top early they can top late and I just personally think this current 18.7 year cycle has actually topped early that’s my opinion I could be wrong maybe I’m too early to the short as one of you pointed out B

Was two years early to this short as well so maybe maybe that’s what this is right just history repeating it’s perfectly possible I am too early on this short time will tell right and we’ll know because we’ll get inv validation by moving across here and stopping me out we’ll break out the dam

Sloping red resistance lines and you know if we resume something like this right and I get stopped out then yeah I’m wrong I’m too early and maybe we can look for a short in a couple of years time people were also asking me about the rate Cuts right are rate Cuts coming

Shouldn’t houses go up blah blah blah Don’t mortgages get cheaper yeah they do but if you look at the historical data typically what you see is as the cuts start house prices decline it’s not usually as simple as Cuts occur house prices start to Rocket assume for

Example you’ve got some cash in your account and you’re waiting to put this into property do you wait for the first cut and then go out and get a mortgage or do you think huh well if the cutting cycle started might as well wait a few months because they’re just going to

Keep cutting rates for a few months and then I’ll be able to borrow near near free again right so of course you’re going to do the the latter if you’re financially as stute that is at least rather than just wait for the first 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut and

Then rush out and get a mortgage when you know likely more and more cuts are coming thereafter so one I don’t really think cuts are stimulative for house prices to go up at least not in the near term longer term of course it is the cheaper the money gets than the more

Buoyant that is for the housing market but in the near term it’s not something I personally have observed when looking at the data and another valid question which sounds logical I agree with that sounds logical is well camel aren’t you calling for a melt up right aren’t you

Calling for this blow off top and a parabola and if that’s the case then aren’t I early again isn’t this another sort of Michael bur point right maybe I’ve I’ve shorted this Market too early and shouldn’t house prices be expected to go up with the stocks and Bitcoin and

Everything else and then we have that crash and the answer is yeah that that sounds reasonable that sounds reasonable but as a chart guy okay look this is what I see this is what I see I see a downtrend that’s well established I see plenty of lower and lower and lower and

Lower and lower highs of course this high is above this one but it’s not above that that one and what looks to me like rejection at resistance followed by a breakdown of this so I’m a chart guy right and for me to be invalidated obviously we could see this like I said

Earlier right we could see me stopped out and we could see a break out of this and then yeah I’m wrong I’m flat wrong but for now if this continues to break down like I suspect it will if we continue to do this then you know all of

These logical sounding points which I kind of agree with when you just say them out loud right yeah there is a cycle right and yeah I’m too early and you know yeah cuts are coming yeah I agree with that and yeah I am calling

For a melt up and then a crash so all of this sounds reasonable but again the charts are the truth the charts don’t lie and assuming this thing continues in this direction then that’s the reason for the short you know if it does this I’ll look like a genius right and if it

Does this instead then I’ll just look stupid and either way that’s fine you know you win some you lose some this is trading at the end of the day so I hope that clears that up I don’t want to spend too much time on the charts because obviously tomorrow is Saturday

We’re going to come back and do the weekend’s Deep dive ta as always for now the dollar apparently working on a breakout okay so that could be the three-year cycle low in here it’s certainly within the timing window it’s earlier than I was hoping to see it it’s

Earlier than I was expecting to see it but unless we roll over pretty soon then we have to be open to marking this is the threeyear cycle low and expecting a bunch more upside from the dxy so it’s going to be interesting I wonder if given that we’ got CPI next week I

Wonder if we do something like this and then we get the CPI and we roll over one more time I wonder if that happens maybe I’m being too optimistic as ever one day at a time Bitcoin I’ll just quickly touch on bitcoin look bitcoin’s still doing whole heap of nothing isn’t it

Still kind of moving sideways still above its 60-day and weekly cycle low so happy days right until we invalidate by sweeping that low then I remain bullish bias gold seems to be on its way to that cycle low I might drag this a bit lower

Down and we’ll see if we can find one soon enough but overall that yellow squiggle still convincing me that I’m correct at this moment in time oil as you can see still getting rejected at resistance so that can change but the stops moved up and that’s all I have to

Say about that and the stock stock market stock market doing weird things right this is undeniably a failed cycle now okay that is a failed cycle so it tells us to be open to seeing at at the best case scenario something like this into that next daily cycle low in fact I

Will move this down here and this becomes kind of the base case now for the stock market tells us that you know that data I was showing you at the start May well be in fact I’m going to leave that squiggle here that data I was

Showing you at the start May well be coming to fruition through January so we’ll see right we’ll see lots of conflicting data doesn’t mean that we can’t do something like this and then higher out after CPI next week perhaps if that’s on a two handle then you know

I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see something like this but for now at least the warning signs are there right we’ve got a failed cycle and the NASDAQ looks even worse as you can see the Dow Jones still kind of hanging around I’ve choked

The stop up as of yesterday or the day before so we’ll keep pushing these trades and at some point it’ll become unreasonable to stop pushing them and at that point we will take the profit I’ll discuss all of this in full detail over the weekend but until then I hope you’re

Doing well in lifee I hope you have a great weekend I’ll be putting out a members update for you guys tomorrow as well but until then I don’t think there’s much change to be honest and in the meantime take care from me all the best cheers bye