January 9th: Gold has been a lagging asset lately and in this episode of Trading Places with Tom Bowley, he will tell you why he continues to avoid buying gold. Be sure you don’t miss the other parts of this presentation, as Tom will review all market activity from yesterday and last week.
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00:00 – Intro and Welcome
01:44 – News and Thoughts on the Market
04:52 – Yesterday’s Action
09:11 – S&P 500 ($SPX)
10:00 – Nasdaq 100 ($NDX)
11:09 – Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
16:45 – Transports ($TRAN)
19:42 – Like and Subscribe!
20:18 – Chart of the Day: Boeing (BA)
25:32 – STOP BUYING GOLD! U.S. 10-Year Yield Minus Germany 10-Year Yield
36:18 – Market Open
37:09 – Conclusion
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Disclaimer: Neither EarningsBeats, nor Show Participants, are Registered Investment Advisors. This content is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
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Hey good morning everybody and welcome to this Tuesday January 9th 2024 edition of Trading Places live at earnings beats.com I’m Tom Bley Chief Market strategist here at earnings beats and I’ll be with you for the next 30 minutes or so as we try to figure out
What’s going on in the market um had a nice uh bounceback day yesterday which we’ll get into here in just a couple minutes I do want to give a shout out to all of our members at earnings beats had an absolutely fantastic crowd on Saturday for our Market Vision 2024
Event um I unveiled a few Secrets I thought about 2024 um and we’ll see I’ll stick to some of those but I do want to thank everybody uh that was able to make it out I also want to give a big shout out to Grayson Rose at stock charts who uh
Joined us on Saturday Grayson’s not only a great friend he’s a great technician uh he is the director dor of operations at stockcharts.com and because uh all of us here at earnings beats and all of our members rely so heavily on the stock charts platform uh it was really great
To have a kind of a personalized uh presentation from Grayson talking about the new sharp charts uh platform um and some of the things that we can look forward to how we can better maybe some of our trading or the way we set things up maybe uh just become a better Trader
Because of being more prepared using many of the tools and features that stock charts offers so that was uh really a great thing having uh Grayson join me always like to get together with Grayson and all the the really good folks over at stockcharts.com so again
Thanks Grayson um as we look forward to today um you know we’re into the second week now of 2024 first week wasn’t so good uh today we or yesterday we got off to a much better start again I’ll go over those numbers in just a minute however we do
Have uh red Futures this morning um we’ve got the Dow Jones futures down 181 points which which is about a half of 1% uh they took a little bit of a hit early yesterday because of Boeing um Boeing um uh the max Plains grounded again uh just you know one of those lingering
Things from the last couple years on Boeing but anyway Boeing took a big hit at the open yesterday that certainly had a an impact on the Dow uh but uh everything seemed to go pretty well yesterday but now the Dow futures down S&P 500 futures down 26 which is about a
Half of 1% Nasdaq futures down about 135 which is about 8/10 of 1% and if there was one thing thing that was clear last week and maybe even even into the end of 2023 it was the rotation that we were seeing away from value excuse me away
From growth and into value into areas that really hadn’t performed as well well and uh yesterday it kind of went back to the way we were used to uh we got a little bit more uh performance from those big NASDAQ stocks um not as much from some of the more uh value
Oriented defensive areas small caps uh did okay but certainly didn’t keep up with the NASDAQ and so you know which way are we going here in 2024 I think that’s kind of what I’m looking at I do think that there’s something to this rotation away from the large cap names I
Mean when you talk about semiconductors going up 95% last year that’s where you know sometimes the chart reading the charts needs to take a backseat to just perspective and just to understand how difficult it is for a large group like semiconductors to go up 95% one year and
Then just continue it the next year I mean you reach a point you know these companies aren’t growing their value should not be growing by 100% collectively I mean we’re not even just talking about one company maybe Nvidia deserves it I don’t know but to
Have the whole group go up 95% of course you know Nvidia is a big part of that but it it’s just a lot so it would be okay if some of these areas that led in 2023 and really some of the areas that led even into the uh second half of 2022
It would be okay if they took a little bit of a backseat in 2024 and let some other areas catch up um that’s kind of what I’m expecting maybe a little bit in 2024 that’s that maybe that’s the part that’s a little different than 2023 uh but obviously we got a lot of
Stock market left this year to see what happens but that’s one theme that I’ll certainly keep a very close eye on what really is taking place there all right uh let’s go ahead and take a look at the action um from yesterday and you’ll see I just uh gave
Gave you a really quick tried to make this uh larger so everyone can see it but I guess I can make it even a little bit bigger there um if you take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average you see it was up a little over half percent
Which isn’t bad considering that it was down in the morning and like I said carried lower at the opening bell by Boeing primarily by Boeing but there were some other uh components as well that didn’t hold up in the open things started to pick up later in the day and
I think those technology names uh you know Apple Microsoft had big days certainly um swayed the Dow much more to the upside uh throughout the day uh S&P 500 though you can see up 1.4% uh gaining 66 points back to 4763 not too far from getting back into
The 4800s and you know getting close to that all-time high which I believe was 4819 and change or maybe was 4818 and change um we’re not that far away so yesterday’s big gain in the S&P got us right back up there again but now the
Future is looking to take us back down a little bit NASDAQ though up 320 points yesterday which was 2.2% that was a really big move and the NASDAQ hadn’t performed very well to start 2024 it didn’t end 2023 on a great note so it was nice to see that bounce
Back but now looking at Futures you got to wonder okay was it just a one- day Wonder are we going to see a little bit more selling in the NASDAQ to open the year I can’t tell you that but um we’re going to find out together here over the
Next couple days to few weeks and January one of the sessions that we had leading up to Market Vision 2024 was the January effect and if you’re not familiar with that we’ll probably have offers coming out for you to uh look at you know check out the recording if you
Weren’t U at our Market Vision 2024 event or you didn’t see the the couple of events that we had leading up to Market Vision 2024 uh those will be available um to everyone at some point down the road um and uh you know probably be maybe uh try
Our service or something and get the recording for free whatever it is check it out um it’s really um amazing honestly first time I saw the relationship between January trading and the balance of the year I was just like scratching my head like no way this it
Can’t be this easy but I I think there’s a lot of validity to what happens to the stock market in January and how good or how bad January is I think that gives us some clues for the for the balance of the year so just another reason maybe to
Watch the market pretty closely here over the next few weeks uh small caps you can see small caps midcaps both up more than 1% nice day uh didn’t do as well as the NASDAQ but that’s okay uh every day is going to be a little bit
Different but it was nice to see strong action on both small and midcaps uh and then down at the bottom here check out the vix Vick uh moving back down perhaps trying to get back down below that 13 level I would imagine we’ll see that jump this morning with Futures down um
But watch the vix because there are um maybe I’ll show you that chart um I I’ve done a an article on the vix I did it I don’t know maybe a month ago where I laid out why I thought you know was very very unlikely that we were going to take
A big hit in the market maybe I’ll try to re revisit that if I remember here toward the end of the show but anyway the vix being down low 13s is very bullish for us equities historically um and so let’s keep an eye on the volatility index because if the
Bears truly want to uh gain control of the action we’re going to need to see that vix Jump by about 50% I I think the vix going to 20 would obviously um accompany probably some sort of a drop in the market but if you really are bearish and you really think
We’re going to have a bad year you you got to get that vix over 20 that’s where the bad stuff happens with a vix above 20 so anyway let’s keep uh moving and maybe I I’ll have some time to come back to that subject vix a little bit later
In the show S&P 500 uh you can see here the bounce off of that 20-day moving average beautiful bounce that’s a really nice candle um now if we were to fail go right back down below the 20 obviously in the short term that would be a little
Bit more bearish um that could get a lot of the Bears getting more excit about maybe their possibilities in 2024 um I can tell you I’m not bearish going into 2024 but I’m also not as bullish as I was going into 2023 and those of you at the um Market Vision
2024 uh event on Saturday I think you know a little bit more about what I’m talking about there but you know there are definitely some signs and we’ll be talking about them throughout the year but there are some signs that suggest this is not going to be a repeat of
2023 and I’ll just leave it at there for now the NASDAQ 100 uh got back up above its 20 so it went below but it held on to the prior price high so this price High just above 16,000 we broke that never looked back in December I mean
Never even went back and tested that level until the last couple of days so um well yesterday not so much but last week last Thursday and Friday you can see came down didn’t quite get to that prior high but we got pretty close uh from from our high up near 177,000
Dropped you know probably about five four or 5% so we had a nice little pullback got back down close to that that breakout and then turned up so now I’m looking at this as support on the NASDAQ probably around the 16150 area and your resistance up near 177,000 and
Yesterday’s recovery back to 16650 kind of gets us back in the middle of that range so today’s action Futures while they’re down still going to keep us unless things really deteriorate in the next 20 minutes certainly going to keep us in this trading range and that’s what
I would watch here in the early part of H January the Russell 2000 really nice move up off of Gap support so 19267 that was the close back on December 13th we opened above that um opened up around 196 or so um and then on this way down here over the last week
The selling that we seen I wanted to point out a couple things number one of the uh $12 that we dropped in the iwm I think over 50% or maybe right around 50% of it were these Gap Downs so you can see we gap down I believe six
Consecutive days on the Russell 2000 and if you add up what we were down at the opening bell of these last six days it’s roughly half of the entire drop and if you listened to me back in 2022 when the market was bottoming one of the things I
Was talking about was that the final drop that we had in June of 2022 well before we went a little bit below in in October but the majority of the losses in 2022 were in the first six months and from May to June the what I’d like to call market
Maker manipulation was rather apparent almost all the losses that we saw on that last move down in June had to do with the opening bell it was the selling at the opening bell and then in the first half hour or even 60 Minutes of trading which I like to call Amateur
Hour because market makers fuel the selling to kind of get the momentum started to the downside and then the Traders start jumping in because they’re starting to lose money and so they can’t take it they want to make sure that they preserve their Capital they sell in the
Morning and then we see folks come back in and buy later in the afternoon now the latter part buying in the afternoon really wasn’t present here here as you could see the last several days but yesterday it was and we got a little hint on Friday when we gaap down we had
A nice rally in the morning back up and then we came back down one final time in the afternoon yesterday the action stuck so we went back down we put in a double bottom from Friday’s low and then we came rallying back and we got a nice uh
Push back to the upside in the iwm so getting back above um both the 20-day moving average which right now is sitting just below 195 at 19490 getting back above that and then also there was this uh area of support um we still haven’t gotten all
The way up there 197 198 19850 those were that was like the triple top that we had throughout 2023 um never could really get through that um yesterday but it was a big rally now if I’m going to off offer any cautiousness I would say the rally was
On pretty light volume as opposed to the volume we saw saw on the way down so I guess on the one hand this the Futures this morning not really I mean I’m not shocked I do think that we’re probably going to have choppiness in this first
Quarter of 2024 that’s kind of what I’m thinking I I think we could hit the 5,000 level to the upside but I also think the S&P could drop into that 4500 4550 area um we finished 4760 something yesterday so I just think there’s going to be some chop leading into this year
Uh mostly because we had such a big rally I mean you got to keep things in mind we had one of the biggest rallies I think with the selling the last week or so we’re no longer showing the biggest gain from January or excuse me October 28th to January 18th that’s the most
Bullish period of the year we were getting close to having going back to 1950 the best October 28th to January 18th period and then this pullback kind of put a little damper on it but we still got another little over a week to go before this bullish period ends so there’s
Still an outside shot that this is going to be the best period that we’ve ever seen from October 28th to January 18th and that’s saying something because this is the most bullish period of the year so to have the most bullish um you know 2023 into early 2024 turns out to be our
Most bullish that’s really saying something and also makes me think okay I got to keep things in perspective I mean that was a massive rally I don’t think too many folks saw it at the end of October and I’ll be quite honest I mean things weren’t looking great at the end
Of October the only thing I said that looked really bullish was the fact that we were going to flip the switch from the most bearish historical period which is October 22nd to the 27th flip that switch to the most bullish period which was October 28th and November 6th and
You can see what happened there’s October 28th November 6th I mean I don’t make this stuff up I post it year after year and we did exactly what we were expecting that was going to happen at least based on history um and then once that happened pulled back and then we
Made a blast off of course this the iwm but we saw it across the board in all of our major indices and when I’m talking about the best October 28th to January 18th period I’m talking about the S&P 500 dating back to 1950 so you’re talking about 74 years
Of strong endof year periods and we’re still possibly going to print the number one period of the last 74 years folks it’s okay if we pull back for a little bit keep some perspective what else let’s take a quick look at the transports so transports fell lost their
Gap support lost the 20-day moving average came back up and tested it from underneath but with the market looking the way it is probably going to see a little bit more selling I would think today I guess my question is do we hold the recent low do we just go back maybe
Hit have a double bottom right near that 154 level or do we go all the way back maybe to this where we broke out of this bottoming head and shoulder pattern left shoulder neckline head neckline right shoulder blastoff that breakout came at 152 look at the 50-day moving average
It’s rising from underneath at 15112 15,1 112 so we’ve got short-term support 154 I think pretty key neckline support at 152 and then a rising 50-day that’s now above 151 and Rising getting closer to that 152 level so you got a lot of support to watch here on the
Transports if that all were to break down then I think because transports you know give us a little indication of economic activity ahead so it was great seeing that fourth quarter run but to see it roll back back over to start losing some key support levels would be
Maybe something that wasn’t so bullish and would certainly be if you’re you know keeping a slate of bullish signs and bearish signs you’d have to throw Transportation into that bearish category if we were to lose these key support levels so this will be a group that I’ll be watching Pretty closely in
The near term especially today you know if they could outperform today with the market pulling back that would be a good thing we’ll see see how this uh plays out but transports normally the the relationship here is that transports have a tremendously positive correlation with the S&P 500 so it’s never good to
See transports roll over I mean look what happened in July when the transports rolled over we had a correction on the S&P 500 the S&P 500 doesn’t if you think about it they both kind of feed off the same things the S&P 500 feeds off a stronger or a what we’re
Expecting to be a strengthening economy only thing that really matters to Transportation stocks they deliver Goods so the way their prices are going to go up is by either the economy strengthening so that there’s more delivery of goods or the market anticipating the strengthening of the economy so it’s always important to
Follow the transports um but if you really want to get something that tracks the S&P 500 pretty closely this is the group so if you’re bullish you want to see the uptrend off of the October low continue if you’re bearish you really want to see this roll over and lose a
Lot of the key support levels I was just talking about let’s keep moving earnings beats if you are unfamiliar with earnings beats let’s say this is your first time first of all welcome certainly appreciate everybody watching the show be sure to like our video um our show and also make sure you
Subscribe to our Channel um you know you can see that Tyler just pulling it up on the screen show you how to do it’s very simple and even if you can’t become a subscriber um you’d like to but you can’t maybe it’s for financial reasons maybe you don’t have time really for the
Market right now whatever it is hey that’s okay you can help us in other ways click the like on our video and uh and subscribe to our channel that helps us all right um chart of the day well I got a couple I guess I could look at but
I’m going to go ahead and pull up Boeing because Boeing did have a big hit yesterday so what is going on with Boeing and what should we expect as we go forward well I mean again perspective this was not going to last forever Boeing was one of the most heavily
Accumulated stocks in my opinion over the last two months maybe well probably from the end of October toward the end of December so roughly two months and I say that not because I have any idea what’s going on on Wall Street I mean I have some idea but I can just look at
The charts do you see I mean once we broke out out of this bottoming head and shoulder pattern do you see any red filled candles I mean a red filled candle where you have a candlesticks that’s filled in red instead of hollow a red filled candle means you close below
The open all that t it only takes having you know having a bad day here or there I mean we’ve seen it so far at the beginning of 2024 right there’s some red filled candles we went two months and I honestly outside of this one on November 6th there’s really nothing
None so I would argue that Boeing was one of the strongest stocks even if it didn’t maybe have the highest percentage gain probably had a pretty good one though still I would say it was one of the best performing stocks because of the nature of the chart not the fact
That it went up a lot of stocks went up but I’m seeing a lot of hollow candles I mean look at this stretch right here in the first couple weeks of December I mean almost every day closing on the high with a hollow candle this isn’t Gap
UPS this is buying you know at the opening running the rest of the day gapping down running the rest of the day gapping flat going up into the close moving up into the close most of these days we were not gapping higher in fact several of them we were actually Gap we
Gapped lower and it was even more of a move to the upside so let’s approach Boeing with that kn knowledge first because I think it’s really important the second thing I would do when you have a straight up move like that I would be looking at a Fibonacci I
Don’t use it a lot but when I get a straight move up like this I think it’s something to at least consider so if we connect the bottom and then connect the top I would be looking first at the 38.2 retracement level which was at two was
It 234 two well 2 33 is um and then the next one 50% that’s usually the two that I look for on a really strong stock a really strong stock doesn’t normally go down to this one that’s still a key Fibonacci level but when I get a stock
That’s this strong I absolutely I mean why would you go all the way back down and lose more than 60% of the gains if there’s that much accumulation so I would be looking in this range and that’s right where we gapped down to yesterday on Boeing so keep that in mind
That I think we’re down near that range of support I wouldn’t be shocked to see us move right back up um from where we are right now on Boeing but if it does keep moving down I would just maybe consider that 50% threshold 50% Fibonacci retracement which is down around
222 um so maybe we see another $7 to the downside but watch for a reversing candle if we do start off the day lower with Futures down let’s see if we get some kind of reversal off of two 2 22 um and you know get back up above that 50
That would be the signal or one of the signals for me on Boeing now the other thing that you could look at on Boeing Boeing has been pretty weak for a long time throughout the pandemic we had the huge drop at the very beginning came back up initial rally you know and then
Kind of sideways went sideways we didn’t go below that March uh pandemic low but we did put in a double bottom in 2022 during the cyclical be market and made this rally back up broke Above This high that was from 120 to about 170 that gives us another $50 of upside to the
220 area notice that’s almost exactly where we ran and we struggled before breaking out uh pulling back one final time and then there’s your I mean on a weekly chart you can see those H Hollow candles pretty strongly I mean if if Boeing is one thing though as you look
At this chart it’s volatile it’s like okay looks like it can’t be saved it’s going to you know maybe tumble back to those March 2020 lows next thing you know we got a rally we’re through the 20 week moving average probably putting in a bottom right nope week and a or excuse
Me month and a half to two months later right back down at that bottom again and then looks like okay probably going to break through right I mean overall it’s not been a very good chart and then we just break out you know gain from 120 to
220 $100 Almost 100% in 3 months and then all of a sudden volatility is gone then it picks back up again as we go down my point is it’s hard to trust a lot of what’s going on in Boeing but I do believe that the worst is behind it I
Mean if during the cyclical bare Market we can’t get back down to that pandemic low I think that’s telling us that the low is in place for Boeing and so I believe we’re going to Rally back off of this weakness that we’re currently in I wouldn’t be surprised if we were to
Break back out sometime in this first quarter might be asking a lot but I I do think Boeing is going to have a better year in 2024 to the downside I would be shocked if we go down and put in a bottom here I think between the moving
Averages and that fibon 50% level moving averages these weekly moving averages coming in between about what 215 and 230 and then we had 222 as our 50% Fibonacci level to the downside I think that a pretty good area uh to find a bottom in Boeing all right next thing and the last
Thing I want to talk about before we wrap up the show is one of the things I talked about in Market Vision 2024 and I I just don’t understand why folks in the in the gold Camp are so bullish I mean okay yeah we 52 we High all-time high
Recently I mean I get that but if you look at the things that really drives gold I don’t think you’re going to get Tailwinds in 2024 for I think you’re going to get headwinds so my feeling is gold may go up but I do not believe it
Will outperform the s&p500 so let’s talk about why you know as I do my research I just try to look for relationships you know to help me or to help guide me in various areas of the market and one thing I discovered years ago with gold
Is that well I’ve known for a long time that the dollar you know if the dollar goes up that’s the headwind for gold if the dollar goes down that’s a Tailwind for gold well what drives the dollar and this chart is one of the this is kind of
Like my go-to of what drives this chart or what drives gold I should say um when the 10year treasury yield if if we go back like in the 1980s think about economics and think about the dollar and what would drive the dollar higher essentially back then before we became
More of a global uh economy back in the 80s when I was studying you know economics we always talked about higher us rates if rates went up the dollar would go up if rates went down the dollar would go down because usually if the econom is weakening or we think it’s going to
Weaken you start seeing the rate cuts and if this Market’s heating up if our economy is stronger then you start seeing the the rate hikes and so forth but think about if our economy is stronger that should that should help our currency and if our economy is
Weaker that should hurt or you know hurt our currency right so when I now that we’ve become a global economy it’s it’s really how strong we are relative to how strong other foreign economies are so it’s not us against us ourselves it’s us against the world and one of the
Strongest areas of positive correlation when we look at other countries what I found is that the US and Germany are literally you know they’re like that I mean they tend to go together in the stock market uh they tend to go together in the bond market they just tend to go
Together and so I thought okay well which economy is stronger well how do you tell well rates I mean your rates generally are going to go up um normally because of the economy sometimes it can be inflation which kinds it throws a little monkey wrench into this because
That I think is what we’ve been dealing with lately but currently and you can see back from what 2012 to 2018 the US 10 treasury yield minus the 10-year German treasury yield was going up and not too surprisingly so was the dollar and then we ran into some
Struggles and we’ve kind of been going back and forth and that’s kind of what the 10-year treasury yield has been doing and we’re starting to see a little bit more inverse of a relationship you can see down at the bottom of this chart I have correlation and you can see how
Often we’re seeing this correlation I think part of it has to do with the pandemic and the fact that we had inflation so it’s a little bit difficult more difficult to look at the yields between the two countries and talk only about the fact that it’s the economy because it’s actually about you
Know more the 10-year treasury yield in the US has been going up more about inflation than because of a huge strengthening economy our economy’s been positive but it hasn’t been outrageously strong rates going up been the fear in the bond market that inflation could take a hold and anytime you’ve got that
You’re going to sell bonds and send yields higher because nobody wants to hold a bond when you know inflation is going up because you got you know you’ve got a fixed rate to maturity and when it was at 3% if you have 6% inflation you’re losing 3% on your money right so
Anyway I think things are a little cloudy right now but in the long term as things stabilize more and more and further we get out one of the of the things to watch is the yield in the US versus Germany because generally we have a very positive correlation these
Circles are you know we’ve seen maybe five six seven times over the last 15 years where they’ve gone negative and usually when they do go negative the dollar goes is the one that plays catchup so the dollar plays catchup to whatever the yields telling us this right here inverse relationship right
There dollar played catch up to the 10-year treasury yield here dollar plays catch up dollar plays catch- up to the upside all those were to the upside here dollar comes down to the downside to track what was going on with the treasury yield here dollar goes back up and then here dollar
Comes down now we’re getting this Divergence and the treasury yield in the US versus Germany staying relatively flat but we’ve been seeing this drop in in the dollar I think those who are calling for further drop in the dollar I think you’re going to be mistaken I
Think once we get through this period I believe the dollar is going to make that move to the upside and the thing is the dollar is what drives gold or one of the things that drives gold the other thing is high volatility I mean if you got two
Things if you ask me the two biggest things that drive gold and their performance versus the S&P 500 I’m going to tell you it’s based on the dollar and it’s based on our volatility index if volatility low is low and the dollar goes up I wish you the best of luck with
Gold it ain’t going to outperform it just that’s his historically the way it works so let’s see I want to pull up I’m going to wrap this up I know I’m a little a few minutes over here so here was here’s the dollar look at the dollar from 2002 early 2000s to about
2011 right there there’s your dollar going down Gold’s going up and gold relative well here’s gold going up here’s gold relative to the S&P 500 when people talk about gold first thing that comes to my mind is will gold outperform the S&P 500 because if it won’t or I don’t believe
It will then why am I investing in gold to hedge okay well look at what this hedge has done for you for the last 12 years all you’re doing is giving away return in your portfolio I don’t believe in hedging with gold when the uh the S&P 500 is outperforming
Gold what I really want to do is hedging gold when gold is outperforming the S&P 500 that was back during the secular be Market because why well volatility I mean look at these Vic spikes look at when gold outperforms the S&P 500 I’ve circled it to make it easy big spike big
Spike big spike even here 2020 big Spike I want you to look at the vix and tell me what happened with the vix the vix big spike big spike big spike big spike you need a spiking volatility index to outperform everybody talking about the price of gold and yeah we just said an
All-time high okay yeah let’s you know get the pom poms out look what he’s doing relative to the S&P 500 I mean cheer on all you want but literally in the fourth quarter while we were making a breakout to an all-time high gold looks great it underperformed the S&P
500 the S&P was doing better than gold so let me just ask all of you gold bulls what’s it going to take for gold to outperform the S&P 500 if gold goes up 10% in 2024 which it’s possible I can see it happening if what if S&P 500 goes
Up 11% which would you rather be in that’s all I’m saying wait for gold to start outperforming I have been listening to gold bulls for a dozen years now talk about getting into gold and how gold is so great Gold’s been horrible next time somebody tells you
Gold’s at an all-time high ask them what what’s it doing relative to the S&P 500 if I have my choice between two Investments tell me the reason why I should B buy gold versus the S&P 500 because most folks that talk about gold don’t talk about that they talk
About oh all-time high big breakout bull pattern the cup right here is longer than the uptrend almost I don’t I mean I see a cup and a cup maybe a little bit of a handle that is a really lengthy pattern I hope I mean I wish the best
For all the gold bulls out there but I just don’t see it I’ll stick with with the S&P and stick with us equities and I’ll let others deal with gold now you give me some reasons like a falling dollar that actually breaks key support um and you start seeing I mean
That’s what drives energy and materials on a relative basis falling dollar so show me the falling dollar when it happens and show me the reasons why it’s going to continue to fall and then I’ll be right there with you with gold until then no way anyway uh that’s
It for me let’s take a quick look at the action um what’s happening here in the uh early going Dow Jones down 224 uh6 uh S&P down perc NASDAQ down 6 so it’s kind of evened out here in the early action it first looked like the
NASDAQ was going to take the big hit small caps actually are taking a big hit along with the midcaps that’s where your your laggards are at the open today I saw something similar though yesterday and then the small caps came back so it’ll be interesting to see how that
Plays out again today and for the small caps the iwm I would just continue to watch that 19267 level uh that’s your key Gap support that’s been holding the last couple couple of days so if we take off to the downside that would be something that would get my attention there but
Otherwise you know we’re just starting the year off choppy which I’m not shocked I think we probably should expect a little bit more of this as well anyhow that’s it for me listen everybody have a great rest of your day again Happy New Year to those I didn’t see
Last week um thank you so much again to all of our members at earnings beats for coming out and supporting us on uh for Market Vision 2024 which was Saturday I actually spoke my forecast was about three hours long or might have been two and a half three hours I don’t think it
Was three and a half was it no I think with question and answer I think maybe it went on about three just a little over three hours but uh those of you who know me don’t know I don’t leave anything on the table um I wanted to explain my my thoughts about
2024 and uh amazing well maybe not so amazingly almost every one of our members stuck till the very end even though I talked about it being an hour and a half segment we went probably close to 3 hours uh maybe just a tad over three hours with Q&A and we had
Almost everyone still watching at the very end so uh clearly uh you were interested in some of the things I had to say we’ll see how things uh pan out in 2024 anyway have a great day everybody happy Trading