Which Commodities Are Set to Outperform in 2024? Rick Rule and Lobo Tiggre

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Join Rick Rule and Lobo Tiggre as they analyze the current commodity market conditions and identify the key resources that could contribute to a remarkable upward surge in the sector in 2024. Rick and Lobo give their outlook on uranium, gold, silver, energy, and much more.

The Independent Speculator: https://independentspeculator.com

Rule Investment Media: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
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00:00 Introduction
01:21 Outlook For Uranium
07:33 Exiting Uranium Positions
13:47 Gold and Gold Equities
23:54 Silver is So Unloved
33:31 Opportunity in Oil & Gas
40:32 Base Metals and Coal

#commodities #investing #gold

If you are serious about your portfolio for 2024 then get yourself to the Vancouver resource investment conference in Vancouver British Columbia on January 21st and 22nd hello everybody and welcome to the Vancouver resource investment conference Channel my name is Jesse day we’re counting down to the next v i January 21st and 22nd there’s a link in the description below where you can get your tickets but we are of course bringing

The VR I to you with our series of expert online panels and today we’re joined by Lobo T of the independent Speculator and Rick rule of rule investment media and when I thought about what would be my dream panel here on the VC it was these two gentlemen so

It’s a real honor to have you both on welcome to the show uh my honor and our honor I believe Jesse yes thank you very much it it I don’t know how much discussion we’ll have here because you’re you’ve got me with one of my my two great mentors in

This space Rick and Doug obviously Doug Casey yeah um so I’ll have to see if I can contradict my master in any way maybe I’ve learned something he hasn’t I don’t know that’s tough that’s tough order to feel both both of us are proud of our acolyte who has worked two

Decades to become an overnight [Laughter] success well I am very excited to be speaking with both of you and I want to kick off the conversation with uranium this is a commodity that has performed exceptionally this year especially when we look at the spot price in particular

Up to 15year highs many of the equities performing very well also I was wondering what both of your current outlook on this uranium sector is do you think we could be overbought here for someone new to the space is is this a time to maybe let the natural volatility

The sector work in your favor and wait for a correction or do you think you know that there’s a lot of ways to go from here to the upside and Rick I’ll start with you uh I’ll answer the question a little differently I think the easy money has

Been made the easy money is made when a commodity moves from hated to unated and that’s all done um you know in a select group of Juniors there was an easy triple to make when in 2021 2022 uranium disappointed the faithful and people sold it off that’s over the structure of

The uranium Market is moving first of all to a place where the incentive price is actually exceeded but also to where more Goods trade in the term Market than the spot market and this is important because For the first time in history really we’ll have certainty of uh

Price for the producers who are smart enough to hook up with a investment grade credit taker which will increase the visibility of their revenues and also make previously unfinancial deposits financeable so I think the question really depends on what kind of investor or what kind of a Speculator you

Are right well Lobo I’ll turn to you now your thoughts on the uranium sector at present I know you’ve been writing about it a lot in your newsletter which I also follow um you’ve been kind of banging the table about uranium uh for the course of the year there’s a lot of

Commodities that you’ve been avoiding um with a with a potential recession coming through but you always say the one thing I’m looking for is uranium plays at good prices that I don’t yet have in my portfolio so what are your current thoughts on the sector um do do you Echo

Rick’s sentiment that the easy money has been made yeah but I’ll address your question more directly my Outlook is uh extremely bullish for years if not decades to come this is a it’s both a structural Supply issue it’s a political constraint issue it’s an idea whose Time

Has Come issue the green agenda hitching its wagon to uranium or the other way around is a GameChanger so I mean the Stars could not align better so we have the fundamentals we’ve got the technicals even we’ve got the storium to go with the uranium to quote my master

Here um you know all of this is extremely bullish but as Rick said we’ve reach the incentive price so even a bull you don’t want to be a blind bull you want to be a rational bull you want to be a disciplined bull you don’t want to

Go charging in every red cape some of them have freaking swords behind them so I mean right so um I I as I said my Outlook is extremely bullish but you asked outlook for 2024 we’re doing this at year end and I got to say my outlook for 2024 is proceed with

Caution and having reached the incentive price that doesn’t necessarily moan oh it’s the top it’ll go down markets frequently over overshoot right you know overbought oversold is the norm how often is something precisely at the right equilibrium price if such a thing even exists um but but high prices cure high

Prices uranium isn’t rare the uh incentive price is now incenting not only mothball production but lower quartile assets to come online now this is happening now you know my my Riff on Rick is forget about inevitable forget about imminent I want happening now so this is happening now and there’s

Another thing that’s new thanks to our friends at spra um is there’s a there’s a new secondary Supply Source on the market now sput is constrained from selling the uranium at hoovered up in the last couple years but the rest of the copycats out there are not to my

Knowledge none of them are as constrained as sput um so so what I’m saying is we’re reaching incentive price and we have a question mark now how many of these pounds that were bought at $25 $35 even 45 $55 how many of those pounds are willing to come back on the market at

$90 I mean $90 is a double for somebody who bought at 45 which seemed you know a little bit risky at that time and bear in mind that some of these sellers or potential sellers they bought with the intention to sell they’re not sput they’re not hoovering up to sequester these pounds

They’re not end users some of them are mining companies that put their money where their mouth was you know bought uranium when they said it was cheap they said it was going to go up okay we we’ll eat our own cooking here with the goal

Of selling the stuff so we can pay for our mind build or our expansion plan or whatever it is that they’re going to do with that money so they’re not Traders if they come back to the market to sell that’s what they bought for that’s what they’re supposed to do

Uh and you know that’s got to be pretty tempting if you’ve got Capital requirements in 2024 proceed with caution and one last thing sorry I don’t want to go too long in about this but I this has been my mantro um there’s a lot of people out

There that are pissing and moaning about you know the uranium’s up and the uranium stocks aren’t well you know just look at the big ones they are up if your uranium stocks aren’t up you need to ask yourself some hard question questions about stock selection and I’m being

Nice yes I think that’s a very good point actually because I get those comments all the time on Twitter I see them on YouTube all the time um one thing I want to ask for my own benefit and I think it could be a benefit to

Some of the viewers as well I don’t have much of an exit strategy when it comes to the uranium sector and this could apply to all of the Commodities we’re going to be discussing today because we’re going to get to some other ones as well and that is when to know when maybe

It’s time to take profits off the table because on social media I see a lot of people when it comes to uranium talking about you know we’ve got a way long ways to go from here I’m holding for the long run I won’t sell X equity for cheaper

Than this set price it’s at least going to go to that and my thinking is how do you know exactly where where it’s going to go and and how do you come to such a figure is it just an arbitrary number um so I’d like to pose the question to both

Of you how do you think about exiting positions do you scale out do you sell all at once does it depend on the situation and uh Rick I’ll start with you well I think there’s two two answers to that question I’m a determined Speculator and a determined contrarian

So I’ve exited about two-thirds of my junior positions uh they gave me what I wanted I owned them because they were unloved and they had to go up then they went up in other words my objective was reached so first of all I sold enough to

Get my money off the table then I sold enough to pay the capital gains tax and then I sold some more just for sport to make myself do it and the stuff I sold for sport I really sold by thinking is there anything that I can do with the money that seems more

Intelligent than staying in this uranium junr do I want to buy Exxon Mobile and enjoy the dividend do I want to move into the roundly hated silver sector in other words do I have something that inspires more greed in me than the uranium stock that I would be selling to

Finance it if the answer is yes it’s pretty clear I think that’s a great way to approach it and Lobo I know you have a strategy that you use for exiting positions maybe you could uh touch on that for us and and let us know how you go about that point of clarification

It’s yeah taking profits is not the same as EX you notice that Rick say I’m done I’m out he got his money back like he’s risk-free how sweet is that speculation it’s high risk you stay up at night because you’re taking risk how sweet is it to be able to speculate with free

Money like you’ve got your initial investment back off the table it’s a completely different question from when to sell when to get out so yeah okay you’re a uranium Bull and you know but that’s no reason not to take profits and I would say yes this applies to everything all Commodities in

Resource speculation but particularly in uranium it’s uranium is a special case because it’s the one commodity that can almost literally melt down on us right there’s there’s no copper reactor that’s going to go critical and cause everybody to stop using copper around the world right but that can happen in uranium

These stocks can basically go to zero in a heartbeat every single one of them the best one in the space can do that and nobody can tell you that will never happen okay maybe not zero but pretty close if there’s a major nuclear incident and we have you know Fukushima

All over again or even bigger because really Fukushima was a tsunami but if there was something that really scared people about the inherent safety of nuclear energy this whole nuclear renant can go away these stocks can go to zero are close enough that it doesn’t matter so in that context not

Taking profits when you can not going risk-free forgive me that’s just stupid I mean that’s just asking for pain I mean a day late is too late so if you’ve got profits um you want to go risk-free and then yes my strategy is is

Not to jump the gun and go too early on this my my other Mentor Doug Casey his longtime strategy was you sell half on the first double it’s very simple you get your money back off the table and you let the rest ride nothing wrong with

That but if you do that when something’s really on a tear you’re you take a 10 bagger and you turn it into a five bager so my modification is to instead of selling the moment I get that double is to put a kind of trailing stoploss on it

It’s not a stop loss though I call it an upside maximizer but basically it’s a ratcheting trigger so that instead of selling at that first double I sell as you know as long as it keeps going up I stay long but the moment it rolls over

That’s when I get out and take profits now how much profit to take you know at the very least I want to get my initial investment back if I feel that it’s a high risk speculation maybe I’ll take more or all of it but that’s a different

Choice you know in terms of selling like actually closing positions and this isn’t just uranium this is everything and I think Rick would agree with me it’s basically has the basis for speculation gone away has the unanswered question been answered either positively or negatively and and look at what he said

He said you know I speculated for this reason they they delivered so that question was answered and of course don’t forget a negative answer answer people who hold on to stocks when the company fails to deliver what they’re supposed to do have themselves to you know act you know to blame when you

Point the finger look in the mirror if you do that if you hold on to your dogs and you know they’re dogs it’s you who’s doing that sorry very well said the era of globalization has now come to an end countries and corporations are right now racing to secure the materials they need

For their supply chains if you are serious about your portfolio for 2024 then get yourself to the Vancouver resource investment conference in Vancouver British Columbia on January 21st and 22nd yeah no I think a lot of people need to hear that I want to shift over to gold now obviously exciting times for the sector with gold having hit all-time highs this year a lot of people were forecasting that in the sector of course there was a lot of of wild hyperbole

Being thrown around that once gold hit all-time highs it’s going to be Off to the Races we’re going to be at 2500 we’re going to be at 3,000 in in short order and obviously we’re we’re hovering around the 2,60 and don’t forget the bricks gold currency that was going to

Be announced for sure on August 25th well hey the Russian Embassy in Kenya said so so it it it has to be true um so th this is in my mind it’s very exciting time for times for gold but uh sentiment in the precious metal sector especially

Silver which we’re going to get to later as as Rick alluded to um isn’t excellent particularly when it comes to the equities because it seems that they aren’t performing along with the metal kind of a similar situation to uranium um for for a lot of them so what are

Your thoughts on the gold sector both the metal itself and the equities and where we’re headed in 2024 and logo I’ll start with you on this one all right well I stood in front of a large audience of gold bugs in New Orleans in November of 20122 and I said that my highest

Conviction trade for 2023 was uranium the other yellow metal I didn’t get booed there were no tomatoes uh but I bring this up because I stood in front of that same audience this November and I said my highest conviction trade for 2024 the next year is gold and the reason why I’m

Addressing this is because you know gold bug is bullish on gold what kind of headline is that right you know but I’m not a perm in fact even last summer when we were looking at the you know the the the dance between the central banks and

The race to debase the balance of the the the on the foreign exchange and so on um I I actually made a bearish call on gold and I said we’re likely to see a correction in the near term and I got that right I don’t say I’m always right

But I’m only pointing this out to say that I’m not a perable so please don’t discount everything I’m about to say just because oh well he’s always bullish on gold but I am extremely bullish I I feel as strongly about gold looking into 2024 as I did about uranium in 20

Looking forward to 2023 and if you recall at the time you know uranium had spiked in 2021 and then it came back and people were leaving it for dead like what’s wrong oh my gosh it’s been months since uranium went up like a month is a long time for a Speculator somehow you

Know Rick rues long weekend quip but anyway so you know at that time uranium stocks were hated and the you know absence of nuclear accident the fundamentals were just there Rick’s criteria of U Japan restarts was starting to happen my criteria of long-term contract starting be signed was starting like these were happening

Now things so it was an easy call in 20 4 2023 to pick the other yellow metal I I look at that this way almost as a win-win for 24 in Gold I still am in the hard Landing Camp I think that set opens the the the fear sphincters again and creates more

Safe haven demand I think it also for anybody that’s forward-looking which the markets supposedly are they know that the powers that be are going to respond with more money helicopters and all that good stuff which is going to bring on more inflation and gold leads inflation people often say well how come it

Doesn’t correlate with CPI well it moves before we saw that in 2020 I think we’ll see that again in 2024 and I’m perhaps waxing too rodic here but my my message is I’m looking at the macro situation much more than the technicals or anything else and it just

I may be wrong I you know maybe we don’t get the recession but if I’m right I think Golds go screaming up and if I’m wrong if we go into Happy Days again that’s bullish for all Commodities anyway if gold goes into a commodity’s bull starting from a base around 2,000

Bucks an ounce I think that’s phenomenal for gold that’s what I meant by a win-win for 2024 that that doesn’t mean I can’t be wrong even wrong about that but that’s the way I see it rick Jesse you led the question with a common fallacy which is to say that

Broke that gold is broken out to all-time highs that’s all-time highs in nominal dollars if you measure gold in real dollars Gold’s got a lot further to go I personally couldn’t care about whether gold is at 1900 or 2000 or 2100 I own it not because I hope it goes up uh but

Because I’m afraid it’s going to really go up and the set of circumstances that would cause gold to go up would do damage to the rest of my standard of living but why the bay is very good so I don’t own it as a greed trade hoping for

$2,500 I own it as a fear trade afraid of $8,000 or some number like that like Lobo when I just oppose the upside to the downside it begins to look stupidly attractive to me could it go to 1700 sure could it go to $77,000 sure just

Toose those two numbers and try and talk yourself out of buying gold with regards to the gold equities uh I think the gold equities have done it to themselves if you look at the length and breadth of Junior miners in the world out of maybe 2,000 of them

There may be 200 that are viable which is to say that 90% of them are flatsome and jets some How could a sector that is 90% you know unwitting or unscrupulous go up as a sector and then if you really want to get depressed about gold

Equities look back to the decade of 2000 to 2010 the gold price goes from 250 bucks an ounce to 850 1,850 bucks an ounce and the free cash flow per share of the X Philadelphia gold and silver index fell it took real management skill to delower to deliver lower free cash flow per

Share when the commodity that you produce increase Sevenfold So those seven or eight gold investors that are left myself among them uh are probably rightly skeptical about the Management’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory given how well they’ve done in the past but I own them anyway here’s

Why the market share of precious metals and precious metals related Assets in the United States is less than 1 half of 1% which is to say if you take the value of all savings and investment Assets in the United States precious metals and precious metals ass related assets

Comprise less than one half of 1% of that according to JP Morgan Chase no F no friend of gold the median market share pardon yes the median market share of precious metals and precious metals related equities over 40 years is 2% so if the type of fear I have uh

About certain aspects of the monetary system comes to be true I’m not suggesting that gold is going to De thrown the dollar I’m cons I’m I’m saying it’s going to lose the fight less badly I’m saying in particular that we’re going to revert to mean and if we

Revert to mean we have a four-fold increase in demand and that is precisely what I think is going to happen let me jump because yeah yeah we move on to Silver something because I I appreciate that Rick went from the to the equities and I think that’s really

Important and I absolutely agree I don’t speculate on gold I don’t even see it as an investment in my view my gold is my savings and I love that it’s painful to sell these beautiful works of art you know an ounce at a time you know that

That makes you not dip into your savings unless you really need to or have a terrific opportunity the stocks are something else um and the good news here is for the reasons that Rick has mentioned and others that the stocks are pretty maybe not as bad as silver stocks

But they’re hated I mean look at look at the hoie look at the XA look at the Gold stocks versus gold and you’ve got gold bugs pulling their hair out what’s left of it you know for most of us who’ve been watching this I take that personally Lobo you know

Well beard is white okay I’m getting there um you know it it’s just like you know you nominal all-time highs and the and and the gold stocks are just in the gutter people don’t want them and okay fair enough the industry as a whole has done a horrible job you know keeping

Their balance sheets in order and managing well just everything really but the better companies have not and you and you’re I I think this is a fantastic setup for for anybody with the courage to be a contrarian in this space the fact that you can have gold okay it’s

Just nominal all-time Highs but that makes headlines and it brings attention there’s people who are beginning to pay more attention to this and particularly since it’s not oneoff anymore we we’re going on three years of nominal all-time highs right it starts in 2020 here we are almost

2024 and people keep expecting it to fall off a cliff like it did in 2011 I I think going on the fourth year it’s not 2011 we can we can already set that scenario aside and at some point people will wake up like oh my gosh it’s not

Going away or if I’m right and we’re going into a new bull starting from 2,000 as a base instead of 1,000 or whatever you know or 1,200 I I think the whole sector gets a lot of attention and I think the stocks really rip and that the fact that we can

Get okay 90% of them may be crap to be a little more Frank than than Rick um but the 10% that aren’t and are thrown out with the bath waterer I I think that’s fantastic circumstance to be taken advantage of well let’s shift over to Silver um as

Rick has is mentioned quite often it’s one of the most hated Commodities on the planet right now talk about people throwing in the towel whenever I post videos anything to do with silver the amount of comments I get of just people they’re almost angry when they’re when they’re disparaging silver it’s useless

It hasn’t done anything it’s manipulated everything you can think of um for for why it’s a terrible uh investment or an asset to own so uh Rick I’ll start with you on this one have you ever seen the silver sector this unloved in your investment career and do what

Sort of opportunity do you think the sector presents at present I absolutely have seen Silver this unloved which is why I’m so attracted to it uh 1988 1989 silver was perversely a four-letter word I mean people really really really truly hated it uh and we took advantage

Of that to build two companies one called Silver standard which went from 72 cents to $45 the other called panamerican Silver which went from 50 cents to about $45 it is precisely the fact that there is so much hate around silver the Reddit crowd was jilted and there’s

No there’s no lover like an angry lover you know uh I look for hatred I look for circumstances where I have no competitors and I I particularly enjoy circumstances where I have no competitors where I have lots of volatility in the sector and silver gives you Vol volatility and steroids I

Don’t know why it is Jesse but in my experience gold has to establish the precious metals narrative I suspect because the fear buyer comes first but when the fear buyer establishes the momentum in the precious metals narrative and the generalist investor comes into the sector when they begun

Begin to come into silver and in particular when they come into the silver equities the move to the upside load occurs later is further and faster and is really truly dramatic and I look at the sector now uh I look at a company you know that releases really good drill holes in

Context right not like one whole wonders drilling right down an epithermal vein but in fact a panel of holes that establishes tunnel tonnage and grade and the stock comes off there is nothing I like to see more than that there is nothing I like to see more than

Demonstrable value thrown away because I know that when sentiment Returns the people who were absolutely unwilling to buy silver at $25 will be killing themselves to buy it at 50 uh I guess perhaps what I am is a pond broker to emotional people I’ve now graded Jesse over 880,000

Individual portfolios and I’ve learned a lot about how people invest and one of the things I’ve learned is that a market is not a source of information it’s a facility for buying and selling fractional ownership of businesses if you take your information from the market from momentum you will always buy

High and you will always sell low because that’s what the market does as an individual it’s not up to you well it is up to you you can be taken advantage of by the market or you can take advantage of the market it’s simply up to you buying silver when it’s hated h

Just makes absolutely more sense than buying silver when it’s loved yeah and I think the silver squeeze movement kind of enhanced the emotional aspect of it because a lot of these people were coming over from the GameStop debacle and thinking they could somehow put some sort of short squeeze

On Silver and send it to the moon and everybody would make a ton of money um and and their efforts did did send it uh to to a decent price level it seemed if if causation was correlation in in in that case or correlation was causation um Lobo your thoughts on the silver

Sector at present I know you you’ve adopted the moniker Darth silver um you you’ve mentioned that it is in many ways an more of an industrial commodity now at times at least it performs that way than a monetary medal what are your thoughts at present on on the silver

Sector and where it’s headed yeah I don’t have my Darth mask around here for this interview but yeah it’s our friends at Wall Street Silver who D me that and um and I I took it on because look if if you get mad because somebody says something that disagrees

With your thesis you’re a silver Bull and somebody’s not or a uranium Bull and some and somebody’s not or whatever and that makes you angry like you’re mad at this guy he’s wrong he’s lying whatever manipulator um I suggest that that is a clear signal that you do some deep soul

Searching on whether or not you are cut out out to be a Speculator because if you’re that emotional and I’m sorry I don’t mean to insult anybody here but if you get angry because of people just talking about your Investments that’s not a good sign you know if if that

Pisses you off well how sound are your decision’s gonna be just just a disagreement how about somebody like me who loves to be hated do I need therapy too you might you might my friend but so I’m I’m sorry I don’t want to wax too philosophical here but I think this is

Really important people are setting themselves up for failure and um okay so people you know you I know the hate is going to start coming here but but you will be happy to know haters of Darth silver that even Darth silver is bullish on Silver going ahead but not

Right away I do think that it’s material and relevant that Silver’s industrial side is taking a greater role we can see that in the price action overall the Cor corelation is still high with gold but you watch the the daily charts the intraday charts and they frequently look

Silver looks more like copper than gold right that’s you know that’s a fact and you can ignore facts if you want you can call me names but that is a fact and if you’re going to ignore facts and go with you know your emotional defense of your speculations you’re asking for trouble

So again the good news is I actually think that longer term the the industrialization of silver if you will is net net a positive it makes it a win-win if the if you know the debasement of the Fiat currencies of the world is great for gold and silver and

At the same time if you get a Commodities reflationary boom that industrial side comes in so there are scenarios where we can foresee where things seem to be okay where in a reflationary boom The Fear Factor goes away and gold the bid goes down but Silver’s industrial demand holds it up

So regardless of this pattern of of silver lagging gold and then eventually more than catching up setting that aside for a moment there’s a scenario where silver outperforms gold because of its increasingly industrial side so I’m not anti-s silver when I say that I’m hopefully just trying to be a realist

And look at what’s actually happening now in the marketplace now back to the thing which which Rick referred to that silver typically lags and then catches up again that was an unbroken track record for 50 years but that has always happened that silver has more than

Delivered than gold at the end of that bull market except in 2020 so we now have a broken track record now okay it’s maybe it’s nine times out of 10 it delivers so that’s still a pretty good track record but it’s significant that the one exception is the last one so you

Have to if you’re going to be rational about this you have to ask yourself has something changed and maybe the answer is no but we won’t know until we have the data on the next bull market right and if silver doesn’t catch up with gold again you you know you really need to

Pay attention to that so where I’m going with this is believe it or not I am bullish I just bought a Gold stock and that leaves only one stock on my shopping list right now my current shopping list includes One stock and it’s a silver stock so Darth silver take

It take it for whatever that’s worth but I’m doing that with the cognizance of you know if I’m right about the recession in 2024 that will hurt the industrial demand before the money helicopters fly the industrial demand will take a dip so not only do we have

Even the most Ardent silver bugs agree that silver lags at first we have this re recessionary scenario arguing for greater pressure on silver in the nearest term so you know you you can be religious about silver if you want but the the macro setting right now tells me to be

Cautious about silver and this one silver stock I’m willing to buy has a huge gold lining so I feel pretty com and it has unique circumstances that are that are game changers for this story so I mean it’s still cheap and so on so I’m willing to go there but I’m not

Generally shopping for silver right now I’m waiting to see how the recession impacts silver and I’m hoping that it gets even more ha if I’m right about the recession and the great silver stocks the best silver companies in the business get thrown out again with the bath water but that’s a tremendous

Circumstance I I would look forward to that well the oil and gas sector is another area where it is very unloved um and I’ve been hearing wildly different calls on it everything from we nowhere near Peak cheap oil there’s plenty of it out there to we’re running out of oil

And it’s far more dire than people think that there’s opinions all over the Spectrum talk of course of the peran Basin production rolling over but it produced very well this year year so that led some people to doubt that thesis um where do you both stand on oil

And natural gas Lobo I know you’ve discussed in your newsletter that this is one commodity that you’re currently sitting on the sidelines in in in fear of a potential recession maybe talk to us about that I I do have thoughts on that but I really would like Rick to go

First on this one because a he made his first fortune and lost it in the oil patch uh he can tell that story if he wants but he knows far more about it than I do I Do cover it but he does know more so I great yeah Rick let’s get

Rick’s take first I I think my needs are different than lobo’s uh Lobo needs to sell a newsletter on a monthly basis he needs now ironically at age 70 without much time left on Earth I’d become much more patient H and I think about deploying relatively large C uh amounts

Of capital over the fiveyear time frames justifying josing both risk and reward for what I do the oil business buiness is as good a business as there is and from my point of view this is a wonderful time oil companies are being priced as though Al Gore uh and Biden

And Trudeau are right which is say peak oil demand occurs in 2030 that is downright stupid it is downright stupid Jesse I want to leave a statistic with you to show you how stupid this is I’m not opposed to Alternative Energy we need all kinds of energy but

Humankind has now invested five trillion dollar in alternative sources of energy over the last 40 years and we have reduced the market share of fossil fuels from a high of 82% all the way down to 81% with A5 trillion investment population grows material standards of living increase demand for oil increases

Peak oil demand occurs in about 2065 and then papers off over 40 years from there so the valuation metrics are wrong people are doing a Net Present Value calculation with no recovery after 2032 The Net Present values are going to be higher in 2032 than they are today secondly uh the industry is

Underinvestigated project expenditure outside the United States in half this is a capital intensive business if you starve of capital you go out of business production will be lower two years from now or three years from now than it will be today as a consequence of those lower prices if

Demand doesn’t get absolutely destroyed the balance of supply and demand will force prices higher meanwhile because of advances in technology the companies at these prices are minting a fortune an absolute fortune and it’s cheap I mean not for a penny stock Speculator okay for somebody who’s

Hoping that he can bet x on a nickel stock and see it go to 75 cents oil’s not the right place to pay right place to play because you need Market stupidity to cause that to occur and the oil Market’s not a stupid Market it’s a

Smart market so it’s not the right place for that kind of thing but if you look at uh the simple fact that sustaining Capital Investments are being constrained uh and that the best capital allocators in the business the Exxon mobes as an example are spending $60 billion do uh increasing Supply if you

Look at the fact that the best companies are more than maintaining sustaining Capital Investments while increasing returns to shareholders by way of BuyBacks and dividends it’s difficult for me to see a circumstance that gets better than this provided provid that you’re investing for returns uh and not for psychological satisfaction or something

Like that right and Lobo your thoughts I don’t have too much to add there I I’ll actually give credit to a different person Lynn Alden who gave me the idea of oil being like tobacco back in the day when it was choked off by government became Politically Incorrect people

Investors fled the sector but people didn’t stop smoking overnight or or still at all and so the unlove sector became actually a phenomenal vehicle for returns and the companies just kep kept making money and paying out dividends and delivering for shareholders I and that analogy for oil I think is is very

Apt um my own so I’m I’m I’m very bullish here um I actually haven’t really owned many oil stocks in the past and I have stuck my toe in there and the only reason I’m not buying more yet is because again my Outlook is for a harder Landing than is

Being credited and energy sector always goes down now uranium is different because you know we don’t need to get in the whole thing base load power all that stuff but it it’s highly the odds highly favor cheaper oil prices going into this realization that oh my goodness we’re in

A recession and by the way even if Team Soft Landing is Right which I don’t think they are a soft Landing is it’s still a landing it it is a recession and soft Landing means a recession but not so bad for it not to be a recession

Means to be no Landing the airplane just keeps flying high forever right so the the consensus view the team soft Landing view is still for recession that’s bearish for oil but that’s near-term I think it’s very near term and I think the that you know typically a recession

Lasts a couple years and it works out but after 2020 let 2008 I I think the powers at be will react instantly I don’t think we’ll even get to to where the recession is causing real pain because it’s no fault to the people’s own this is now our criteria for sending

People stimy checks well the recession isn’t any voter’s fault oh sorry not voter dear concerned suffering citizen um so I think the money floodgates open and I think that’s going to be great for oil prices and all Commodities but why would I buy in front of that you know I

I I’m not going to time the market I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I suspect at the moment that it’s in front of me so I’m a shopper in waiting I’m accumulating cash and uh you know we’ll see where we are in a

Year well let’s talk about briefly some other Commodities base Metals um iron or recently rallied to around $140 a ton uh do you think there’s any of these uh maybe talk about iron ore specifically or any other metals that are currently on your radar whether that’s nickel whether that’s lithium or uh anything

Else and Lobo start with you uh well my general view the quick take is I’m not buying any Industrial Minerals right now it’s like oil it’s the same argument if I’m right you know I may be wrong but my expectation is hard landing and and then the money floodgates open but first the

Realization of oh my gosh the plane’s going down right so that being the case why would I if Copper any of these um iron in particular though it’s much more of a China story than anything else and China’s been struggling with their reopening that makes me nervous um other things out there there

There might be a story maybe Rick will disagree we haven’t disagreed yet we need to find something to disagree on maybe this will do it I’m I’m periodically people say coal is hated let’s let’s get into coal Coal is cheap it’s got to go up right and we still

Need it as Rick says we’re going to need all forms of energy alternative mainstream old stream everything we’re going to need it all that includes coal fine um but coal isn’t like gold that you can stick a high value of it in an airplane and it’s fungible around the world it

Tends to be Regional markets it’s a bulk commodity uh there’s different qualities of it there’s impurities in it there’s you know it’s it’s messier than other Commodities and it is it’s it’s one thing for investors to hate it it’s another thing for it to be the one in

The crosshairs of the government you know the the moment they don’t need is that much energy or they have a bit of coal is the first thing they’re going to a it’s the first thing they’re going to come down hard on they’re going to ban Burn yeah not burn the opposite whatever

So so things like that make me nervous the the general answer is I want to see I want to have confidence that the recession has done its worst before I start buying any Industrial Minerals and then within that I want to be very picky because you you can make a contrarian

Case for something like coal but it’s it’s it’s not a slam dunk in my view you know maybe Rick has a different view yeah the cold debate let’s hear it I do uh in the first instance LEL makes a good point about a recession but my point about a recession is that between

His other Mentor Doug Casey and I we have correctly forecast 17 of the last three recessions and the time I have spent out of the market for the last 40 years has cost me a lot more money than the times I’ve been in the market and got caught

So I don’t listen to my economic forecasting track record anymore given that mine like Doug’s is unblemished by success Going Back 40 years I look at net present value uh in a variety of circumstances relative to Enterprise Value that’s what I do Lobo rightly points out that the coal

Mining business is different than the gold mining business but he forgets why the coal mining business is profitable uh and I have this wonderful wonderful sense that I should enjoy return on Capital employed rather than praying for return of capital employed the largest year of demand for coal on Rec record was

2022 eclipse in October of 2023 and despite the fact that our government big thinkers like Biden and Trudeau think that Cole is an anathema solvent governments uh have a very different point of view they need more power they need to provide affordable Basel load power to their constituencies

And irrespective of The Wishes of the big thinker in the west or that noted energy theorist Greta thorberg I think is her name Dr thorberg um when people around the world flip the switch they want the lights to go on and for most people in the world

That requires coal now I certainly agree with Lobo that there is a variety of uh chemical properties that there is a variety of uses for coal and I mistakenly about three years ago uh confined my coal Investments to metallurgical coal the most politically correct form of coal and by doing that I

Deprived myself of about half the gains I could have enjoyed by taking the scuzziest possible coal uh being sold into Sri Lanka Pakistan Egypt places that didn’t care very much about my political sensitivities and I suspect that that’ll be the case for a very long time uh the folks at glenor uh

Politically correct if ever there were any uh recently bought in a 40% interest in a coal m from a partner of theirs they own the other 60 this mine has a 35-year reserve life and they paid 1.5 times trailing cash flow for that purchase in other words the purchase has

An 18-month payout for a for a mine with a mine life of 35 years uh people say but Rick what about carbon you know what about cop 28 what about the 80,000 people who flew 1,200 private jets to Dubai to tell you to drive less you know those those cats

When they talk about carbon they’re talking about a narrative the reality is this people in Frontier and Emerging Markets believe that carbon should be measured per capita not by country and they point out the fact that China produces a bit more carbon in the United States but with three and a half times

As many people they also point out that if you’re concerned about carbon you have to be concerned about historic loadings and all the historic loadings occur in the west so when the Western voters learn like the German voters have uh the Perils of the new energy economy they discover two things their

Future if they listen to their big thinkers is a future that occur that that includes blackouts and energy prices five or 600 time five or six times as high as they are today if you don’t believe in fossil fuels as a western consumer and if uh carbon credits are

Going to be passed equitably by use and take into account historic carbon loadings you believe as a voter and a taxpayer and a rate payer in $25 a Galla gasoline you believe in 85 Cent a kilowatt hour electricity up from 12 up from 12 cents and I suspect as the

Voters are confronted with those facts as they have been in Germany that the outcome is very very different and irrespective of our feelings about coal the arithmetic around Cole is really compelling well it’s been an excellent conversation gentlemen thank you so much for joining us today lobo tell us about

The independent Speculator and what it is you do there well uh thank you for asking for the three people still listening in the impendent Speculator is it’s sort of the Brent cook Model I have my own portfolio it’s it’s not just I may own some of these stocks this is where I’m willing

To put my own money that’s the idea full enchilada service I also have something called my take which is widely misunderstood there’s no portfolio there’s no recommendations it’s it’s basically a sliceable diable database of hundreds of companies sort of like Rick’s reviews but uh with a lot more

Material and explanation in there and it’s updated uh monthly so it’s a research tool and if you’re not sure if any of these are for you then I would suggest just subscribe to my free Weekly Newsletter if you do I promise we will not spam you with a flood of daily

Advertisements you can see how I think see how I do uh and then decide if you want to hire me as your due diligence guy great I’ll put a link to that in the description below Rick you’re wearing quite a Snappy shirt today tell us about battle bank and what’s going on with

That well I’m celebrating retirement by starting a new bank uh something that I recommend for anybody who’s consider who’s considering retirement which is the same as considering suicide um I love the banking business I believe that Banks should pay interest on deposits which most big Banks don’t

Seem to believe in I believe if you’re an American that you should be able to save in almost any currency you want to so battle bank will offer CDs in 22 currencies We Believe at Battle bank that your IRA is your IRA not a receptical for somebody else’s Financial

Products so if you want your IRA to own a duplex or invest in private Equity or own a franchise we can do it for you and we believe that Bankers that lenders should lend only to industries that I understand that they understand well I don’t believe that I could lend to a

Thousand Industries because I don’t know a thousand Industries well but I believe that I could lend against gold is collateral because I know gold I believe that I can lend to mining companies I believe that I can lend to oil and gas companies I believe that I can lend

Against good collateral and good businesses to good people whom I know and understand uh if that kind of Bank makes sense to you if a sanity based Bank makes sense to you or if you’re uncomfortable with your current bank and if you aren’t uncomfortable with your current bank you’re out of your mind

Take a look at Battle bank the other thing that I’d ask people to do is if you care what I have to say about uh uh resources go to my website rule investment media.com like Lobo or perhaps unlike Lobo if you list your resource stocks I’ll rank them no

Obligation one through 10 one being best 10 being worst I’ll comment on issues where I think my comments might have value note that there are 3,000 resource stocks in the world we can muster up coverage on 750 50 of them so if you’re looking for my opinion on Consolidated

Orangutang or Amalgamated moose pasture probably not there but for real resource companies they’re all in the place rule investment media.com list your natural resource list your natural resource stocks while you’re at it go to the rural classroom over 200 hours of instruct instructional programming on natural resource investing all free rule investment media

Rule classroom battle Bank end of commercial great I’ll put links to all of that as well in the description below once again it’s been an honor to have you both on and thanks so much for joining us today our pleasure