Bitcoin could hit 150,000 in the next 12 months and half a million in 5 years: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of SEC’s bitcoin ETF decision, latest market trends, the Fed’s rate path decision, 2024 outlook, recession risk, and more.

CAN BE INVOLVED IN CERTAIN WAYS WITH THE ETFs AND ASSETS. VERY ODD. OKAY. YOU ALSO CAME ON, MADE A GREAT CALL ABOUT SOME UPCOMING INFLATION NUMBERS AND WHAT IT WOULD DO TO THE S&P. WHAT DO YOU SEE YOUR EXPERTISE AS OF NOW IN TERMS OF STOCKMARKET PREDICTIONS?

WILL YOU DO A WEEK? DO YOU DO A DAY? DO YOU DO THESE OPTIONS THAT EXPIRE IN LIKE EIGHT HOURS? DO YOU DO THOSE, OR CAN WE STICK WITH SIX MONTHS IN ONE YEAR? WHAT WOULD YOU RATHER DO TODAY? >> I’D RATHER STICK WITH SIX MONTHS TO ONE YEAR, JOE.

>> OKAY. TELL ME WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN THEN. >> I THINK 2024 IS ULTIMATELY GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR IN STOCKS. THEY’RE NO LONGER FIGHTING AN INFLATION WAR. WE KNOW THAT ISM MANUFACTURING THESE PMIs ARE BOTTOMING AND THAT’S CORRELATING WITH EARNINGS THAT ARE BEGINNING TO

ACCELERATE, AND WE KNOW THERE’S BEEN PENT-UP SPENDING ON CAPEX. THAT ACCELERATES. THAT’S GOOD FOR EARNINGS, AND WE EXPECT MORTGAGE RATES TO FALL, WHICH WOULD BE GOOD FOR CONSUMERS, SO IT’S REALLY GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR FOR STOCKS. BUT THE CAVEAT BEING THE FIRST

SIX MONTHS, PROBELE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING BECAUSE IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS INVESTORS ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE ITCHY OR ANXIOUS FOR THE FED TO DO THEIR FIRST CUT AND THAT UNCERTAINTY IS GOING TO WEIGH ON STOCKS. AND AT THE SAME TIME, IT’S GOING

TO BRING BACK THOSE WHO ARE FEARFUL INFLATION REARS UP. I THINK IT’S A GOOD YEAR OVERALL, BUT MOST OF THE GAINS COME IN THE SECOND HALF. >> THIS IS A SIMPLE CASE OF CONSOLIDATING SOME OF THE OUTSIZED GAINS WE SAW AT THE END OF LAST YEAR?

>> YES. AS WE ALL KNOW WITH PARABOLIC MOVES, YOU MIGHT HAVE TO DECLINE A BIT. I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE THE MARKET DOWN, YOU KNOW, AS MUCH AS 5% BY MARCH, BUT THAT’S REALLY GOING TO END UP BEING A PULLBACK YOU WANT TO BUY

BECAUSE I MEAN WE’RE NOT HAVING A HARD LANDING. THE ONLY RISK TO OUR VIEW WOULD BE IF WE HAVE A RECESSION. >> THAT WOULD BE THE RISK. YOU THINK IT’S 20%, 30%? WHAT IS THE RISK OF RECESSION IN YOUR VIEW? >> I THINK IT’S LOW.

IN A TYPICAL YEAR, THE ODDS OF A RECESSION IS 20%. I THINK IT’S PROBABLY AROUND 20%. MAYBE EVEN LESS BECAUSE I THINK WHAT INVESTORS HAVE PRICED IN IS GREATER THAN 20%. AS YOU KNOW, THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE SKEPTICAL THINKING THE ONLY WAY A FED CYCLE ENDS IS

WITH THE RECESSION. SO MANY THINK YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE A RECESSION BECAUSE OF THE YIELD CURVE. IT’S CAUTIOUS. I THINK THE RECESSION ODDS ARE LOW. >> WE DON’T HAVE THE — COMPANIES DOANLET HAVE THE REVENUE BOOST FROM RAISING PRICES OR PROBABLY WON’T ANYMORE.

SO I DON’T — WHAT IS YOUR EARNINGS PICTURE FOR GAINS IN 2024? IS IT 10% ON THE S&P? >> YEAH. PRICING POWER INSTEAD OF — I MEAN ONLY A HANDFUL OF COMPANIES DID THAT. MANY WERE CONSUMER PRODUCT COMPANIES AND STAPLES. THEY’RE THE ONES WHO HAVE BEEN SUFFERING RECENTLY.

YOU KNOW, UNIT DEMAND, I THINK, IS ONE OF THE STORIES THAT WILL EMERGE BECAUSE AS SOON AS WE HAVE LOWER INTEREST RATES, DEMAND FOR HOUSING IS GOING TO IMPROVE. YOU KNOW, THERE’S A HUGE MULTIPLIER EFFECT FOR GGDP. A HUGE CYCLICAL PART OF THE

ECONOMY WILL PICK UP. >> TOM, DO YOU FORECAST AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM THE FED RATE CUTS NEXT YEAR AND WILL THAT BE OKAY IF WE DON’T GET WHATEVER IT IS THAT THE MARKETS ANTICIPATE? SIX OR SEVEN? IS THAT OKAY?

IF WE DO GET IT, WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE ECONOMY? >> I KNOW THAT’S THE DEBATE, JOE, WITH INVESTORS, AND TO ME THE NUMBER OF CUTS ISN’T GOING TO BE AS IMPORTANT AS HOW THE BOND REACTS TO TRADING INFLATION THIS YEAR.

WE THINK INFLATION IS STILL ON A GLIDE PATH MUCH LOWER THAN INCENTIVE. I THINK WE’LL APPROACH TARGET BEFORE YEAR END, 2024. MAYBE DECEMBER 1 COULD BE A LITTLE BUMPIER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S GOING TO BE LESS ABOUT HOW MANY CUTS THE FED DOES AND IT’S

GOING TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FED ALSO RECOGNIZES THAT. >> YOU DON’T THINK THE LAST MILE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE WITH — BECAUSE OF WAGE GAINS OR WHATEVER. YOU THINK WE’LL GET TO — THE FED WILL GET TO 2%. PEOPLE SAID WE’LL NEVER GET TO

2% AGAIN? YOU THINK IT’S THE NEW NORMAL. DO YOU THINK WE GO BACK TO WHERE WE WERE AFTER SUCH A LONG PERIOD OF TIME? THERE’S NOTHING STRUCTURAL IN THERE? IT WAS ALWAYS SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES. >> THE BEST CLUE IS WE GOT CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS FROM THE

FED SURVEY EARLIER THIS WEEK AND THEY’RE BACK TO PREPANDEMIC. SO IF CONSUMERS AREN’T EXPECTING INFLATION TO REACCELERATE AND HOUSING AND CARS, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY BEEN 86% OF THE CHANGE IN INFLATION, IF THOSE ARE NORMALIZING AND HOUSING DOUBLE HAVE TO BE NEGATIVE, IT

JUST HAS TO GROW AT 3%, AS YOU KNOW, USED CARS COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 30% IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. YOU DON’T REALLY HAVE MUCH BEHIND INFLATION. SO I’D BE SURPRISED. >> SO IT WAS TRANSITORY. >> YEAH. >> YEAH? THAT’S WHAT YOU’RE AYING.

IT WAS TRANSITORY ALL ALONG. IT WAS, IT WASN’T, IT IS, IT ISN’T, NOW WE’VE DECIDED WE’RE BACK TO THAT. SO TO END ON — GIVE ME YOUR ONE-YEAR AND FIVE-YEAR PRICE TARGET FOR BITCOIN. >> I THINK IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS SOMETHING OVER 100,000.

YOU KNOW, MAYBE OVER 150,000. YOU KNOW, IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AGAIN, IT’S, YOU KNOW, THERE’S A FINITE SUPPLY, BUT NOW WE HAVE A POTENTIALLY HUGE INCREASE IN DEMAND WIT