Gold and Silver Will Breakout in 2024 | Kranzler

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[Applause] welcome to gold silver Pros hey everybody it’s Rob ke goldsilver pros.com and I have a returning guest at program somebody Haven been on the channel in a while this is Dave Craner of investment research Dynamics and we’re recording on the 11th of January 2024 Dave how are

You doing today I’m doing well how about you rob good to see you yeah not too bad uh it’s an interesting Market because we were talking I’ll get weather just a little bit before we get into the markets weather right so we’re talking about the polar vortexes coming and it looks like it’s

Going to be interesting um of course anytime anything happens in Texas everything gets shut down we’re not prepared for the you know the Deep winter storms what’s it looking like where you’re where you are up there in Colorado do you think there’s going to be you know a pretty good amount of

Snowfall and shutdowns and stuff like that I don’t I think it’s going to be too cold to snow the on Monday it’s supposed to hit starting Saturday and on Monday I think the forecast high right now is zero zero yeah so I I don’t I mean when I was

Growing up they wouldn’t shut down the schools for that but I think they’ll probably shut down the schools but everything else will operate yeah well along with the polar vortex I’m said transitioning into the economy I think in 2024 we’re going to have our own sort of Vortex I think my view is

That we’re goingon to have a lot of choppiness I think we’ll have more swings in the markets we’ve already seen it with Bitcoin and gold already I think gold reached in all-time high a few weeks ago and open on a Sunday and then got slammed down over over a hundred

Bucks in a day and generally when you get to that point of the market with the alternative currencies it’s signaling people wanting to come into them but there’s not enough momentum really to push them you know into the LA into that last phase of the market but I think it

Does signify Dave that people are seeing risk and they’re starting to take account of these alternative assets what’s your view on that what do you think just give us a real quick little preview of 2024 what do you think we’re going to see this year well as you say I

You know I think it’s there’s going to be a a systemic Vortex that hits it’s going to affect the economy it’s going to affect the financial system the banking system uh I I think it could get really ugly this year and for me it’s it’s just a matter

Of when will the FED start printing money overtly again I mean as we were discussing it it’s already been injecting reserves into the banking system since February so um and so and they know what’s they know what’s going on I mean it’s fun to like laugh at the F Well I

Don’t know about all the fomc members but you know Powell gets informed from from the research staff at the FED what’s going on I mean they have access to better data than any of us and so they they they well know what’s going on and so then it’s just a question of how

Do you how do you package what the FED community communicates and Greenspan was the master of it but uh how how do you package with the FED communicate so that the dollar doesn’t get flushed down the toilet and interest rates go to the Moon right um and we we saw today I don’t

Think we’re done with inflation at all I mean no we’ll never be done with with their willingness to massage away actual inflation from the CPI report but the CPI report hasn’t been designed to measure real price inflation since the 80s so you know regardless of what the CPI

Report says and if it’s if they were not able to keep that headline number below what Wall Street was forecasting like happened today it tells you that inflation is running a lot hotter than than even they have the the ability to massage it out of the numbers and maintain some semblance of

Credibility yeah I think in the inflation stories far from over um if you go back and look at the 70s it had three three stages each one more than the other where you got the blow off top and then vulker had was forced to come in and raise interest rates I think it

Was somewhere between 18 and 20% just like overnight um and you know John xer was one of xer pman was one of those people who was counseling him to do that because back then uh he had experience with a central bank also being a central bank head of another Central Bank and

And he W he was telling vulker he’s like hey man you got to get control of this or you could have a runaway inflation of the dollar and you know Dave that was back before or we have some many damn dollars all over the place now War to

Today you know we all you know you could wrap your Christmas presents and how much dollars we created um I agree with you I don’t think inflation’s anywhere near ending and we’ve started to see those hot prints come back I we started to see it a couple months ago just touch you know

Go up a and now I think we’re starting to see it for real can the FED cut you know when if inflation’s going to come back even if it doesn’t get to almost double digits like last time maybe even it just goes back up to you know 78 do

You think the FED can do their plan cuts that they’re talking about they kind of sign on the market we may do three to four Cuts this year do you think they’re gonna be able to do that I mean there’s a couple factors going on there I mean just to kind of

Get back to what I’m expecting in 2024 I I think the economy is and has been in worse shape than than the official numbers show I mean especially you know I scour private sector earnings reports data economic reports for my for my short sellers journal every week and

What what the private sector is reporting is a lot different than what you know the government numbers like GDP and employment are showing so I think the economy is is in not great shape and I think it’s going to get a lot worse in 2024 you know and the primary reason for

That is that households are just over over strapped with debt I mean we we saw that in the holiday season where holiday sales were were if you rip if you strip out price inflation holiday sales actually were probably negative on a year-over-year basis and yet you know based on the November consumer credit

Report from the FED uh credit card debt increased in the month of November by the second most in history on record that’s right the revolving part of that debt yeah over 19 19 billion yeah y so that’s you got the buy now pay later plans Dave yes right

On that yeah yep you’re right and I that’s that’s another indication you know these these people using you know the buy now pay later it tells you they didn’t have the money to fund their holiday gifts and now they’re going to have to spend a large part of 2024

Paying that debt down that’s expensive debt that buy now pay later debt is is you know in the mid 20s percent and and so that essentially that that robs consumer spending from 2024 and pulls it into to the holiday season which was weak as it was and and so um you know I

I I think the economy is really gonna go into a downward spiral this year and so can the FED cut interest rates I mean I think it depends on the degree to which it wants to try to save the economy you know at the expense of the dollar

So let’s just put it this way I mean they’re in a much tougher position than the Fed was in 2008 if if you ask me and and probably even in a tougher position than um you know that that pandemic period so and and some of the some of

The private sector economic data indices are now back down to where they were at the bottom of of the pandemic you know during the lockdown period so that that kind of tells you where we are and so how is the Fed going to treat that

I think like like I said we were talking earlier I think it’s either you know start printing money and cut interest rates or cause the economy to really crash and default on the government debt yeah those aren’t great choices in in addition you know in addition to what

You said a lot of the GDP because we had some fairly robust GDP gains you know in the last couple of months of of the last quarter last year you we had a five was it a 5.2 4.9 something like that but if you dive beneath the numbers there the

Majority of it was government spending so it’s all debt based defense spending defense spending government spending and then the consumer spent more but we just went over how they spent it they spent it on credit so that GDP gain is as you said it it’s a debt that must be paid

Back later so it’s not additive to the economy it’s something you’re going to take back because it’s whatever you spent plus the interest rate you have to pay is now going to be drawn out of the economy this year as people pay back that’s right and we got the unemployment

Numbers let’s talk about those for a minute the unemployment numbers every single time they come out they get revised down so it’s never as rosy as they say but zeroedge does a really good job of breaking down the mix of jobs so in in was it November’s report or the

Latest report we got or December I’m sorry we lost one and a half million full-time jobs and we gained part-time jobs but it but we’re not making up for the income and the benefits and stuff like that so what how you think that affects consumers in 2024 well I

Mean yeah I actually dissected those numbers in my in my newsletter last last weekend um the interesting thing is um that the two 216k number the headline number that came from The Establishment survey right there there’s two surveys I mean it’s just stupid how they do this two surveys that the household

The household report I can’t find it in here but um the household report showed Oh yeah the number of people employed declined by 683 th000 yes and and so you know the part-time workers increased by 579,000 which means if you do the math full-time workers fell by 1.26 million

Yeah and and a high percentage of those part-time those additional part-time jobs are people taking on second and third part-time jobs to make ends meet and and so you know when you see you know oh 216k new jobs in in in December you know oh the economy must be doing well that’s

Better than expected well no that number is completely fictitious so um yeah I mean this this is all feeding into what I think is going to happen this year which is and we haven’t really begun to see the real layoffs coming so and you know that that’s coming and we’re also

Going to start people are going to start defaulting on their debt it’s already starting so I me the delinquency rate on credit card debt for all banks in the US except the top 100 is over 7% now you know now you’re getting into 2008 2009 numbers and and it’ll it’ll start rising

At the at the largest banks just give it some time yeah it will so I think you know we’re all of this is circling around the point that the banking sector probably is going to have all sorts of trouble uh one of the recent reports is that the

Amount of unrealized losses on the bank’s balance sheet is the highest that’s been and forever in fact the chart I saw is as highest it’s been since the chart’s been been kept at least over the last 10 years and those unrealized losses are really essentially what put silver gate SVP First Republic

All of those Banks out and almost took out credit s because the if you mark to market the value of the debt quote unquote assets like mortgage Mortgage Debt treasury debt it’s debt but it’s an asset right that old stupid game but if you Market to Market a lot more banks

Are insolvent Bank of America is probably the first one because they have a third of all of this by themselves yes at what point does the market it did for silga getting SVP at what point do the smart people in the market the sharps turn around and look at the rest of

These Banks and say oh crap we’re in much worse shape and then it starts some sort of bank run whether it be on the depositor side or on the investor side because I think the silvergate and svb it started on the investor side and moved to the depositors the investors

Figured it out and then they started withdrawing their money you know how long before that happens to the rest of the banking system could that happen this year or is that something you think that people just aren’t going to touch it that’s a great question I mean really

You’re just making the argument for why the FED will probably end up cutting interest rates because the problem with these Banks is they had a a duration M mismatch between the duration of their liabilities which are demand deposits you know you can walk into a bank and say I want my money

Versus the duration of their what they call hold to maturity assets and that was just an accounting game that that that was put in so that Banks if they hold assets you know and they go down they used to have to mark them to Market even though it was just paper losses well

They decided well why don’t we move these in to hold to maturity category and that way we’ll just carry them at face and they’re long duration assets which the banks piled into because they couldn’t get any yield on the short end and they they didn’t it also tells you

That for the last few years there there weren’t enough good projects to lend to right I mean that’s what the banks do they take in deposits and lend money to whatever you know unfortunately you know too much commercial real estate but so you have these assets which are you know

Arguably very high quality that don’t mature you know until 7 to 10 years from now and when rates shot up the value of those assets went down you know 20 25% and so that that’s where the problem was and that that means that I mean the FED

Can try to fix it by job boning rates lower and I think that’s what we saw in the in the last fomc meeting and I think that’s what their motive was was to try and get rates down at the long end which it did I mean we had a quick 100 basis

Point retracement and yields lower right and and that helps push up the value of the fixed income assets held by these Banks so and if they cut you know the interesting thing is what happens if they do cut rates or you know or when they start cutting rates we could

Actually see the yield curve steepen which will make the whole to maturity valuation problem even worse yeah it would and let let’s get into some of the indicators of trouble so I’m going to throw out three we’ve got the yield curve inversion that we’ve had now for at least six s months

Between the two and the 10e treasury we have the bank term funding program and we have the repo market so let’s start with let’s start with the first one what are your what are your thoughts on that well my thoughts diverge from what the main mainstream media experts are

Telling everyone oh inverted yield curve doesn’t mean anything anymore we’re having a soft Landing we might not even land I mean it it’s been inverted for a lot longer than six months and I don’t have the number off the top of my head for how long it’s been inverted but historically un

Unmitigatedly an inverted yield curve for that length of time and I I’m not even sure it’s ever been inverted for as long as it has been I’d have to look that up I I don’t think it has yeah it always it always recession yeah it this is the longest it’s ever been inverted

You know prior to a recession and it has a 100% prediction rate on recession so far limited limited sample size but it’s a really good indicator You could argue that this you know sectors of the economy have been in a recession for over a year I mean you’ve seen it with

The leading indicators the leading um indicators index has been declining for 19 months it’s been negative for 19 months same with the the Dallas fed Manufacturing Index like 20 months or something like that manufacturing has been in a recession for over a year um retail if you strip out inflation is

Barely treading water so right I mean no one no one in the mainstream would ever admit it but I mean if just looking at the numbers I mean we’ve probably there hasn’t been any real economic growth especially if you use a a real deflator to measure GDP there hasn’t

Been real economic growth in a long time yeah I agree with you I don’t think we’ve had any true sustained economic growth since the last recession and honestly Dave if you look at the numbers I can make the case that going back to the tech crash whatever gains we had ever made after

That are long gone and the bill that we have to pay for maintaining basically an even you know for the last 20 some years is yet to be paid you know all the money we spent was just to keep it even for all intensive purposes but we still got

To pay the bill at some point right so I think people will come back to this 20-year period of history and say yeah that definitely was not worth it um in terms of the amount of Destruction done after going on these wild insane policies and we Tred them all it’s all

Modern monetary theor that they’re trying yeah I think it’s going to fail let’s get to the other two that I mentioned the repo Market in Bank term funding you know I think we made an interesting connection before the recording that that bank term funding program and repo are sort of analogous to one

Another and the repo Market liquidity come down interest rates are above five now and I noticed as soon as that repo market rate went above five the amount of collateral pledge to the repo Market has fallen off a cliff it’s like people don’t want to pay that rate for

Short-term funding some banks are using like Bank term funding or the farm legislation to go pledge collateral to get money from the FED aren’t these similar schemes in order to keep a certain amount of liquidity in the banking system and to kind of cover up

You know what is looked at is maybe not super high quality debt and super high quality you know collateral that’s being used no question about it I mean just take the bank term funding program how is that not QE I mean definitionally that’s what it is right these Banks pledge their

Collateral you know the hold to maturity Securities they pledge that as collateral take it to the fed the FED window and and get a loan against that yeah and the incredible thing is the Fed is lending on face value as opposed to the 15 to 20% discount to face where

It’s trading now so so I mean that’s what QE is right I mean even even an overnight repo is you know at what point does it go become not an overnight repo and QE you know does it does it have to be a 10day maturity repo maturity a

One-year repo maturity which and they don’t the thing is these Banks don’t have to pay back the the money that they’re taking from the btfp right away they it just means supposedly this March date is is when um you can no longer tap into it

That doesn’t mean you got to pay it back all at once so and and I I guarantee the feds either they’re going to let the banks you know keep that liquidity for as long as they need it or it’ll extend the window on that on that facility they’ll probably extend it out they’ll

Say six months but it’s like that repo program that started in 2019 September 2019 and you you could I could see from the numbers I look at that the banks were becoming ill liquid in the summer 2019 you were yes yeah and if you go back and look at the bank stock charts

They started selling off in August so um and you know what was a temporary overnight repo program slowly slowly transitioned and then quickly transitioned into you know multimon repo maturities and the the pro I forget how big it was it was huge by the by the time they decided to just print three

Trillion all at once and throw it into the banking system do do you think it we we’ve for years I think in our industry in general not just us but you know in general if you follow gold and silver you follow the economy you’re you follow Austrian economic that type of

Thing you’re always looking for what is the trigger what’s the Black Swan what’s going to cause it is It ultimately always coming down to the banks and the Central Bank isn’t that always what we’re talking about will that be well what we’ve been talking about what eventually will cause this thing to

Topple over is it the dollar what is it what do you think going to topple the finally well if we could figure out what it was it wouldn’t be a Black Swan definitionally right I don’t know if you saw it someone someone tweeted uh La I don’t know might

Have been over the weekend his list of what the black swans would be in 2024 and he had a whole list of things some of the ones that we’re talking about I’m like well well how are they black swans if you already know that they’re there right I

Mean maybe we already know the answers to the to the test and we’re just sitting here waiting that could be also that very well could be I I don’t know I mean I’m starting to get a little bit nervous about what’s going on in the Middle East

I mean it looks like it’s starting to escalate and you know what I wanted to I don’t know if you saw this yeah I mean I I can’t believe this government is going to do this but the White House apparently is backing legislation in Congress to use the funds the Russian

Funds that the US confiscated to rebuild Ukraine yeah now I mean we know there’s like half of that’s going to end up in the pockets of the contractors that go in there the the us-based contractors that go in there and do the building but I I I honestly can’t

Believe that that this country is arrogant enough to think that it’s going to actually take those funds and use use them for its own purposes outright theft right I You could argue that it’s not officially theft yet just Russia doesn’t have access to those funds but if the US

Goes and uses those funds that’s outright theft and if if if the people in DC think there won’t be repercussions to that I mean look what’s already happened to the precious metal sector since since the the confiscation um began right I mean look how much gold the e hemisphere has been

Acquiring over the last two years phenomenal yeah that’s that’s something I want to talk about so let’s talk about let’s talk about the war for justice SEC and let’s get into gold silver if that’s okay you brought up the war so I want to focus on it I tell you every time I

Bring this up especially on Twitter I get hammered because there seems to be Dave and I’m not trying to make this political but there seems to be a certain group of people that want us to go blow up the Middle East and any excuse that we can do it it’s like Kill

Them All and let God sort him out and I kind of get that you have an affiliation with Israel because of the United States’s longing but at some point when do we say this is less about our supporting Israel and more about us not wanting to start World War Three because now you

Have houthi Rebels shooting off Rockets from Yemen at our destroyers now we’ve got a couple of Destroyers over there then you have Iran chasing out our warships none of this is good we I in my opinion we don’t want to go over there starting any sort of crap day

Because I don’t know that the crap that we start is not going to then push over into other nations we don’t want to F with I don’t want to F with China I don’t want to F with Russia right now but I feel like we’re almost drawing

Some of these bigger Powers into it it’s you know my master was in Military College and when I went to residency there was one of the professors talking about proxy wars we’re in this big proxy war I don’t want this proxy war to spill over

Into a war war that’s my fear do you think that that’s possible or you think there’s no chance that that happens I mean I is it is it really a proxy war it almost seems like a direct War I mean we’ve got very close yeah

Yeah I I don’t know if we got have boots on the ground over in the Middle East but we we’ve got boots on the ground I mean it’s it’s it’s already War if you ask me I mean my opinion is I don’t I don’t think the US should be over there

Period you know let let that region of the world sort it out and you know the less intervention that you have the more quickly and efficiently it’ll get sorted out um but I mean you know war war is money right defense companies are making a bloody fortune in Ukraine they’re

They’re now going to be making a bloody fortune in the United States I mean in Israel um it distracts people away from you know if you if you’ve got war in the headlines you know it distracts people away from all the other BS that’s going on in this country right now you know

Especially the Border I mean the Border I mean you could call that a Black Swan I mean it’s it’s gotten out of control as as you well know yeah the the amount of and there’s so much to talk about Dave I feel like we could go on forever

So I’ll talk about for a second move to gold and silver though the the board I call it an invasion which offends a lot of people but they’re literally just pushing people through and they’re not even qualifying them and they’re giving them money and they’re giving them gift cards and cell

Phones we now have this on film so this is not conspiracy theory we have it on film we have sheriffs and Texas and Arizona saying this is happening they’re literally just shoving people in the country and what happened to Europe when that happened well Europe culturally became very politically unstable yeah

And I think that cultural instability is coming to the United States and so some regard because it’s okay to have immigration but when you do it the way you’re doing it it’s going to cause instability the system itself can’t handle it whether whether morally you know whatever argument you make there

Economically it’s going to be a disaster uh it’s already a disaster the the state of Texas is calling special sessions because we only do every other year odd number of years we do our legislature we’re not supposed to be in session of 2024 we’re in special session

Talking about this issue and no matter what governor Abbott does he signs letters saying I’m going to take care of it but we just don’t have the money you know we don’t have the we can’t cover all the thousands of miles of our border space you know that don’t have fences

There’s literally I mean there’s nothing we can do about it um there’s nothing state of Texas can do Arizona seems to be helping and paying for all this or at least some of it uh yeah that’s that’s a nasty little that could be a nasty little black Swan

That we have and and what is that thought that most Empires collapse from the inside maybe that’s really where it’s going to come from from well I mean and you know it’s Abbott’s been sending a lot of them up to Denver you know other sary cities and I just I just saw

There’s the the state of Colorado is going to allocate 12 billion in taxpayer money for housing for these people yeah and I mean I kind of think I mean one way to to at least slow it down is to stop providing economic incentive for them to

Come here you know don’t don’t hand out money that we don’t have to give them cell phones and and food cards and shelter right yeah I mean they’re not going to have much fun this weekend in Denver I’ll tell you that unless they have shelter but it it’s

Like I think as you pointed out and what happened in Europe is that I think you could see a major social backlash against this yeah and that could be coming this year if they don’t do something to to at least slow it down and and and stop allocating you know

Taxpayer money to clothe and feed and shelter these people money that we don’t have right I mean we’re spending we’re giving them money that we’re borrowing whether it’s from foreign investors or you know the FED has to print it up yeah that’s right okay let’s go to

Gold and silver so gold hit a new all-time high a few weeks ago on a Sunday open then got slammed the next two days um when you go look at the cop report it was the bulling Banks we know who we know who the the culprits always are uh

We know who they are if you combine the C Report with the office comp currency report we know the four Banks they’re they’re called out an OC report so we know who the the culprits are do you think at some point gold and silver are

Going to get up and run and just keep running that at some point they lose I’ve always thought that they’re going to lose control I’ve said it all these years but they they seem to have immense power in the short term they can stop short rallies what do you think is going

To get gold and silver over that hump to just keep running like it did you know 2009 well I mean to your point since 2001 gold is still the best performing asset right how performed even you know the Dow and the NASDAQ and the S&P so you know they they it’s it’s

Um back in the earlier days early 2000s you know we used to refer to it as controlled Retreat the the price management of of gold and it you know again it’s you you see the price management happen when it’s just the the London and New York paper derivative

Markets that are open right you don’t it’s not like you know these Eastern Hemisphere banks that have been accumulating a boatload of of gold over the last few years it’s not like they’re out there selling chunks of of physical gold on the market PE once people buy

Physical gold they keep it right they use it is collateral so um it it’s it’s clearly all being engineered in the in the derivatives market so um what what’ll cause them to lose control I mean I think that’s part of why the FED is being so Cy about I mean

We know the FED at some point is going to have to start cutting rates and printing money yeah and I and I think I think part of the reason they’re being Cy about it is is to help them control the gold price I mean that’s what we saw

In 2008 I me gold was over a th000 bucks in March as as be Sterns was going bankrupt that year and then by the end of October gold was down at 700 even though everyone knew that the financial system was blowing up and that and that’s the type of thing that should

Cause gold to double not not go down 35% so um I I think that’s kind of what they’re doing now I think they they know that at some point they’re going to have to start printing money again cutting rates and I think they want the next

Launch in the prices of gold and silver to start from a lower level than if they were not trying to control the price you see what I’m saying right I mean it’s you know it’s just like that list of black sanss that went around on Twitter I mean there’s any number of trigger

Events that could cause it to happen um and I I think we will see one of or many of those trigger events this year let’s move over into the stocks real quick um it seemed as though the stock indices The Mining stock indices kind of got up

Off the mat a little bit in the fourth quarter showed some life I don’t know if it’s a rocky baloa story just yet seems like they may have fallen back down what do you think um do you think we’re going to get the Catalyst from the stay what

The Catalyst to me is being where Gold’s right now gold needs to go back to a new all-time high and stay there and then to me I think the mining stocks get up you know and they start fighting again is is that your view or what do you think is

Going to propel the mining stocks back into you know another bull cycle like we saw in 2016 and in 2020 you know that’s that’s a really good question it’s the it’s kind of an interesting answer because you know if you go through the exercise I run

Two-year charts on I just on my stock trading app I use GLD and SLV and GDX and GDX and actually all of them that’s you know gold and silver and you know the large cap mining stocks have been in an uptrend since September 20122 I mean you can look you can just

Pull up the chart and see yeah so and I mean since since the beginning of October and again this number is off the top of my head I calculated it the other day GDX was up something like I don’t know 35% in the in the fourth quarter yeah so

I mean it’s it’s it’s natural to have a pullback a corrective pullback because you know it was starting to get frothy I’m looking at the chart here and the RSI was in way overbought territory by by you know late November so late November by beginning of December it was

Overbought so it kind of you know you kind of knew there was going to be some kind of pullback and I think it’s the kind of pullback that’ll set set up the next move higher I think where where our our people meaning you know the cohort of people who invest in mining

Stocks I think they really more focus on the junior project development stocks and those are the ones that have been stuck in mud now for a few years yeah and um so for me the question is and you’re right to your point you know GDX the the MX gold bugs index

Which I guess is called the Arca gold bugs index now they’re all extremely over when if you run the ratio charts they’re extremely um cheap on a historical basis relative to the price of gold so right so then the question is when will they catch up with gold and

Um I think we could see that this year again you know any number of of trigger events that will cause gold to shoot up into you know an all-time high and maintain that level and and silver at some Point’s got to catch up to gold I

Mean silver is going to be in a supply deficit this year right a supply demand deficit um at some point silver will catch up but if we could see silver start to move into the high 20s and get over 30 I mean I think we’re

Going to be off to the races in the mining stocks and especially the micro cap Junior project development stocks those those are the ones you really want to be in if this if it unfolds this way I mean nothing’s guaranteed right do you think 2024 is

Going to be a catalyst year or do you think this can keep going for do you because we’re in an election year and in 2008 was an election year and they couldn’t keep everything going to the election we actually had problems before do you think in 2024 they’re going to be

Able to keep it together do they want to keep it together is the Fed care at all at this point or is the Fed just trying to bail water out of the boat as fast as possible I mean already as we were discussing before we started recording there’s already

Been um low grade call it money printing going on since February right the base money supply is up over 7% since February and thus that’s that’s it’s Bank they’ve been creating Bank Reserves right because the base money supply is is Bank Reserves plus coin and currency in circulation so there there’s already

Been kind of a a lowgrade version of money printing going on since February and the question is I mean one thing that we didn’t touch upon it’s probably a whole topic unto itself is you’ve got um debt maturity wall in commercial real estate and not just commercial real

Estate what doesn’t get talked about is these private Equity Funds lever the crap out of all the companies that they took private over the last three or four years and and there’s going to be a maturity wall there and a lot of these companies they’re have trouble they’re

Going to have trouble refinancing them because they don’t make money interest rates are a lot higher than when the debt was issued and the banks are sitting on a lot of this paper so to me it all kind of boils down to in terms of printing printing money

Well there’s there’s two facets you know do the banks come completely unraveled this year I think there’s not saying it’s going to happen I think there’s a good probability that they will but also there’s going to be a lot of new treasury issuance that has to come and

When that reverse repo facility gets to a certain point and that’s mostly money market funds when it gets to a certain point they’re not going to be able to you know roll over debt and and finance the spending deficit by issuing t- bills that’s what they’ve been doing since

They remove the debt ceiling at some point they’re gonna have to start issuing longer duration paper which makes more sense anyway because it’s trading you know consider at a considerably lower rate than t- bills are um and it’s it’s like who’s going to buy that stuff Yellen got a lot of

Criticism for not promoting that already I remember in the last month the market really got onto her for not being more active in the longer you well the whole government complex not being more active in the longer term debt Market there’s a reason for that though we’ve they don’t

Have a problem getting auctions that are less than five years done yeah but there there’s been some hiccups in the auctions in the tens 20s and 30s especially the the 20s when they’ve issued 20-year paper because and again this was the case you know four weeks

Ago I haven’t looked at the curve lately but at that point the the 20- year was was trading at a lower yield than the 30-y year and so it’s like you know why would you want to buy the 20-y year yeah it seems as though the long run the

Curve people aren’t buying so I I think what’s happening is people aren’t buying the long-term stability of the dollar and of the US economic system they may take short-term debt because they perceive that they can get out of it you know and especially foreigners they’re they’re pulling away from that so you

Know if if they’re going to start issuing on the long end they’re going to have a hard time holding rates down at the long end because they’re gonna have to find a rate that’ll clear the market at the long end once the money market funds are out of cash to keep this to

Keep the Geral on the treadmill with t- bills yeah the it it seems as though it’s like a sort of a not a p but we’re being the fed’s boxed in and Big Time and the treasury don’t have the tools to get out of this one they don’t

They don’t have the liquid they can’t get enough liquidity in the system uh like you said they can’t go to the long end of the curve they can’t push out and drisk the system and when you can’t do that you’re in a box and then everybody

Jumping out of the system you don’t that box is not supported I to me there’s no way out I think there’s just the No Way Out scario this is the well print yeah that’s hyper inflate right that that’s going to be either print or default so you know they won’t default they’ve

Already said default is not an option so pick your poison so that means they’re going to print and then the question is does all this come to aead this year or can they kick the can down the road somehow for another year I mean that’s

The $664,000 question I mean I I think I think there’s a high probability it comes to ahead this year but you know they they may have you know let believe me they they the brains at the FED they they’re they discuss what we’re discussing with better data so they

They’re well aware of the problems and so then it’s just a question of how do you package it when you have to roll out the solution which would be money printing do you think the foreign debt holders have become the marginal buyers and when they walk away from the table

Is when it collapses because starting to walk away from the table right they’re already starting to walk away from the table but I mean when they finally get up and there’s they’re not even at the table anymore is coming because they’re developing their own systems trade started with trade then it went to

Transfer and then it went to currency so the writing’s on the wall they’re developing their own economic system you know at what point do they get and walk away and when they walk away is that collapsing because I don’t because once the FED is 100% monetized ing everything then everybody knows it’s

A that point yeah yeah I mean I think I think getting rid of the dollar is going to take a lot longer than a lot of us would like to think it would yeah but you know again it’s the question of to what extent are these are the foreigners willing to

Continue feeding at the treasury trough and we see they’re already pulling away I think at this point there’s probably a rate that would induce not all of them but enough to fund to bridge the gap you know in in funding the deficit but that

Rate I think is is it’s got to be closer to 10% than where we are right now and that’s that’s the problem is that you know 4% on the long bond is is not a it’s not an economic rate it’s not a real it’s not a free market

Rate your opportunity cost is what you can get in the Emerging Market the emerging market returns are high right now right so if you look at bricks projects if you look at belon Road initiatives if you look at outside the the Western system the development of blockchain projects and digital the digital economy

There’s much higher rates of return outside the US than there is in the US right now I think at least from a debt perspective right well and again you know as you you know we’ve been talking about um a lot of these central banks and and sovereigns are putting money

That they might otherwise put in historically put into treasuries they’re buying gold with it physical gold so any last thoughts day before we wrap up and talk about your newsletters anything we haven’t covered on the program that you’ve been talking about with your subscribers that you want to share uh you know it’s

Interestingly I usually when we get pullback Cycles like this I get a much higher rate of cancellation than I’ve been getting and really for the last two years I mean I I’ve had I’ve had a you know a draw down in my subscriber base but I’m I’m still getting new

Subscribers and and most of my long-term hardcore subscribers I mean they’re you know they they’re they remain Rock Solid they they firmly believe in this sector and they firmly believe that there’s at some point um Alpha to be earned in the sector so um I I guess I’m just kind of

Surprised that I wasn’t I haven’t get any more cancellations during this this pullback and really we’ve been in a pullback period since I mean GDX was much higher back in March of 2022 than it is now so I mean there’s there’s a lot of frustrated

People out there but I you know I think I think the reward should happen this year could happen this year and if not this year next year all right very good so tell us Dave about invest research Dynamics and the two newsletters that you write and how

People can get in contact with you if you’re interested in taking a look at those sure so investment research Dynamics that’s that’s my blog I don’t post as actively as I used to but I’m I’m going to try and crank that back up again and at the top of that there’s

Links to my Mining stock Journal which comes out twice a month and my short sellers Journal which is a weekly and um you can get more information on on those two newsletters you know just follow the links perfect sounds good and a reminder for those of you that follow me we do

Have a bullion store and we have a couple of deals out this week we’re 299 per ounce over spot for silver Maples and I think we’re 275 over spot for the UK branas if you want that or any other discounts you can find on our discounts

Page those are good deals yeah thank you go to www.gold silverpro decom go to the discounts tab we have prices on just about anything that you want but if you want those two specific deals I gave you which aren’t anywhere on the website you click on access discounts here fill out

The form and I’ll get in contact with you we still do this this week I’m also giving away a couple freebies a couple of proof coin sets with the first amount of people that order I think I’ve got a couple of those left so if you’re interested in getting a free proof set

And you buy at least $500 we’ll do that as well all right thank you Dave so much we appreciate it andcome back to the program nice talking to you I know it’s been a while likewise thanks for having me back on yeah we’d love to have you

Come back in rotation again for this year if you’re interested for sure just let me know all right sounds good thank you Dave I appreciate It