Marks of the TOP, Bitcoin Price Chart Hits Retrace During ETF Launch, Altcoin Dominance Shifts

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Hey what’s going on everybody this is the blockchain backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and Analysis today we’re going to be talking about the Bitcoin price chart post Bitcoin ETF launches that took place yesterday in the United States stock market has Bitcoin run out of juice after hitting

Its 618 Fibonacci retracement level was that the climatic event was that the peak well I’m treating it like it is yesterday I posted over there on Twitter I’m done I finished selling all the Bitcoin accumulated at the lows the 0.618 retrace was hit this morning that’s it for me wild year-long ride

Good luck to bitcoin I still have the 35% from 2018 to 2019 which is about 8 8% of My overall portfolio time for the real fun as you guys know I’ve been Distributing all throughout here and yesterday post ETF launch I finished I’m done all of my FTX collapse Bitcoin has

Been sold it was a long rough ride to get back there to those retracement levels but we have done it but what do I mean about time for the real fun well that’s where we’re going to start talking about Bitcoin dominance and how this thing is looking very very wobbly

To start heading down and why that is a wonderful thing for the altcoin market so we’re really going to divide this video kind of into two parts one being like the fun is done for Bitcoin and the attention is going to shift but we need to actually look at Bitcoin and

Understand why a peak could be coming in here for Bitcoin right now now most of you who watch the channel and have gone through the depths of Despair in the cryptocurrency market in 2022 and then the wall of worry climb back up here in 2023 already knew I would do this as we

Got back to this location and back into the retracement levels yesterday we nailed it we did it right during the ETF launches now that was the Bitcoin market cap but you can also see over here the actual price chart did as well as a price got to $49,000 exceeding the 618 Fibonacci

Retracement again making it to the level that I was looking for it was a tough road to get there but we finally did to see examples of how that retracement level can cause problems for Bitcoin you can just go back into the past go back and live in 2019 notice one Wick above

The 618 retracement level that was it go back to 2014 15 and 16 hits the 618 retracement level Boom Big fallback now while both of those circumstances did ultimately lead to new bull runs happening for Bitcoin I am more skeptical that Bitcoin is going to be able to do that considering Bitcoin was

Created during the depths of the great financial crisis and they launched the ETF products only 3% away from the 4.236 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average so this video is not going to spend a lot of time trying to say hey we’re going to go here and then consolidate and bounce

Or we’re going to go here and then go up and then come down that’s not what we’re going to focus on today today we’re going to focus on the altcoin market but to just kind of wrap your head around it cuz we’re kind of living in the thick of

The moment a lot of times when we’re living in the thick of the moment the emotions get absolutely out of control what was happening at the lows extreme fear extreme depression there’s no coming back from this what do we get up here extreme optimism extreme Euphoria extreme hope that something huge is

Coming as JP Morgan bitcoin’s longtime best friend and black rock bitcoin’s longtime best friend have Financial products available for you to be able to purchase off of them so not only do we get to the retracement level that we’ve been looking for we also get an event to

Occur at the exact same time that we do one of extreme hope optimism and Euphoria irrational exuberance you see all the price targets out there on Twitter yesterday Kathy Wood going on to live television and saying the target is at a minimum $600,000 and in a bull case

Which we think is way more likely of $1.5 million so that that provides a lot of Hope a lot of excitement and it gets people to buy right and where does it get them to buy right back at the retracement levels which we know can be the problem and it took Bitcoin working

Its way all the way up here for people to finally do that those who were here all of 2023 know how rough of a ride it has been to get up in here but we have finally hit it for that my trade is complete my plan for Bitcoin is complete

Now it’s time to test the hypothesis that I’ve had of will we have the altcoins go nuts in a time like this and just because we get here does not necessarily mean straight line down logic tells me that JP Morgan wants to spend a good amount of time Distributing

That Bitcoin up here on you so they could tease it for quite some time especially since we see it over here in the stock market that these types of structures can really kind of go for a little while so I would not be surprised

To see us have to spend time up here but again that’s not the point of figuring out what structures are going to look like in here does this mean that the juice has run out for Bitcoin and it’s time for the altcoin market to have some

Fun my thoughts are yes it’s been my thesis the whole time this has been my thesis the whole time now it’s time to put up or shut up for the altcoin market and so where do we need to look at the Bitcoin dominance there’s a reason I’ve been writing all these newsletters and

Doing all this research during 2023 on the altcoin market on the performance of the altcoins during 2021 and what separated good performers from Bad performers as you know this was a forpart newsletter series focusing on developer data percentage dry downs and circulating Supply by inflation When taking into account all of those a

Portfolio that had focused on those topics and those metrics outperformed the top 20 by market cap by a factor of four four times better like I’ve mentioned 8% of my portfolio is Bitcoin 92% is in the altcoin market and I’m going to show you why this is such a

Terrible chart that has major problems with it and does not paint the true picture and that what we would actually see is that the Bitcoin dominance topped way back over here in June but the illusion is there that Bitcoin is doing very very well in relation to the alquin

Market but in reality it’s actually not one thing if you just kind of take off the blinders of seeing like all the hype that’s gone on over there on Twitter all the outrageous price targets and all the euphoria that has happened over the course of the last month Bitcoin is

Actually up 5% wait a minute I I came here for lifechanging gains in Bitcoin that’s right the entire month leading up to the ETF all the hype all the anticipation for the month leading up to it and now one day after the launch Bitcoin is up only 5% even if we go to

Peak from the entire month of anticipation for Bitcoin leading up to the ETF launch and launching and the most extreme Euphoria there was it’s only up 12% over the entire month but there Comes This sense of pain the sense of capitulation on the altcoin market because we see this we see all these

Posts happening out there but remember the last 3 months Sanaa 1,000% avax 400% Celestia 600 osmosis 700 optimism 250 internet computer 350 and really we see it clear as day when we look over here at the dominance of others which is everything in the cryptocurrency market

Excluding the the top 10 that this thing reversed in June of last year 7 months ago that everything excluding the top 10 has been outperforming Bitcoin and you’ve likely seen me show you these charts before for bitcoin’s dominance versus Bitcoin plus ethereum plus usdt plus usdc that this is the safety trade

Which is different from the safety trade of 2018 to 2019 that this thing topped back here in June of last year the safety trade ended and that’s the major problem with the Bitcoin dominance chart is understanding what it represents that this is all altcoin outperformance happening in here this is alt season

Number one from 2017 this is alt season number two from 2017 and 18 then into the long bare Market Bitcoin grinds its way back up but then the safety trade ends something we didn’t have back in September of 2019 was a huge St stable coin Market back then back in July

August and September 1 to 2% of the entire Market was the stable coin Market however the stable coin Market topped out at nearly 177% there in 2022 even now sitting at 7% right now when the Bitcoin dominance is calculated it’s using that portion of the market to calculate bitcoin’s dominance and it

Gives an illusion of Bitcoin doing better than it really is and if you notice something about bitcoiners they are always pointing to ethereum they will no way will point to the collective rest of the market they’re always pointing to ethereum see we’re out doing ethereum we’re out doing ethereum and

There’s a very good reason why because if the picture is painted any differently without ethereum and if we look at the rest of the market the rest of the market has been beating Bitcoin since June and I can show you that even here on the Bitcoin dominance chart and

We just have to understand what does the Bitcoin dominance represent it represents what bitcoin’s market cap is in relation to the rest of the market cap of the entire cryptocurrency Market essentially bitcoin’s market cap divided by the total market cap of the entire crypto market and that’s how we come out to

52% for Bitcoin dominance we can really mimic this just by doing the calculation in here on our own by taking the Bitcoin market cap and dividing it by the total market cap of the entire crypto Market notice 52 we get the exact same thing so

What you’ll see out there a lot is that Bitcoin dominance is going here that it needs to go out here to this location and that would make sense it would even make sense to at least have to come back and hit that support level right there

If we’re just going to be technical if we’re going to add FIB levels in here to say hey we’ve got to go back and hit the FIB level or we got to hit the 702 FIB level and get us back into here all of that that would make perfect sense if

There wasn’t a fundamental problem with how this is calculated and that has to do with how big the stable coin Market was the stable coin Market was non-existent during the safety trade and what we can do is we can actually say well what is bitcoin’s dominance when we

Look at it from the market with it not including the stable coins what does it look like for Bitcoin versus the actual real cryptos in here and then we suddenly get a little bit of a different picture not entirely but there is a different picture painted in here first

Of all without the stable coins it has already hit resistance levels in here for the dominance so bitcoin’s dominance of the entire cryptocurrency Market when we’re not looking at these stable coins but when we’re just looking at things like xrp cardano ethereum Salena avac all those guys and if we remove just the

Stable coins we’ve already hit a major resistance level but to show you why bitcoiners Focus so much on pointing towards ethereum and not towards the altcoin market it’s because what happens if we actually even remove ethereum from here and we say how is bitcoin’s dominance doing versus the entire Market

Excluding stable coins and excluding ethereum and suddenly the picture is even more different it shows that we actually did top back in June versus the remainder of the altcoin market and it did already hit that level that everybody is pointing to which you can see right there there’s a reason they

Scream ethereum ethereum ethereum and not the rest of the altcoin market because it’s clear as day versus the rest of the altcoin market collectively Bitcoin topped in June in its dominance and even if we include ethereum and we just remove the stable coins we see the resistance there as well whereas when

You look over here at bitcoin’s dominance you just don’t get that picture right and I’ve tried to explain that a lot the safety trade I’ve made YouTube videos about it I’ve written I’ve written threads over here on Twitter about it back in August of last year for those who weren’t here in 2018

Through 2020 Bitcoin was considered the safety trade we didn’t have a stable coin Market if you wanted to stay in the market and preserve Capital it went to bitcoin and I’m proposing that the safety trade is over I make all of these arguments back on August 11th of 2023 to

Talk about the stable coin Market talk about how it’s different and that the Bitcoin dominance chge or bitcoin. D is not accurately representing what is really happening out there in the market while so many people point to it the reality is it does not accurately represent what has been happening and I

Think you get that just when you see these in here just by having the stable coins removed and then realizing wait a minute the dominance of Bitcoin topped in June versus the entire cryptocurrency Market collectively except ethereum so why is all the attention on ethereum because the picture is entirely

Different for the rest of the market collectively and when we even look at the Bitcoin dominance when we remove the stable coins like usdt and usdc we can head down here to macd and we can see the last push of strength for the dominance happened when in June since

Then it’s just been trending down in strength in here after hitting resistance levels we can shift down here another time frame we go down to two weeks you can see the stochastic RSI just pointing straight down you’ve got the cross you’ve got negativity happening over here on the macd when we

Go down to the onewe time frame of course we see the stochastic down at the lows and we just see the Divergence Happening Here relative strength index just trending lower and lower in here down even though that’s slightly up and call that a bearish Divergence so the question is will the Bitcoin dominance

Break down down from here because that’s what it means when the altcoins outperform again looking over there at the dominance when we exclude the stable coins and when we exclude ethereum we see all the higher lows that get built all the way up in here as it just keeps

Going and going and going and going until finally boom We Now start to have a lower low over here in the daily time frame and over here on the weekly time frame that just hasn’t happened here in the whole uptrend back to the resistance level here to get your first daily and

Weekly lower low then you say to yourself what just happened with sentiment just now what happened yesterday what happened in the the days prior were people piling into Bitcoin were people yoloing into Bitcoin selling their alt coins into Bitcoin and well not everybody did it was more pronounced

I saw it in the chat I saw it over there on Twitter posting it people that I follow they’re like I just couldn’t give into it any I couldn’t handle it anymore I had to give into it a little bit I had had to swap some of my xrp for Bitcoin

And that happens after the first lower low back into a retracement that’s the moment that the pain was too much and we talk about that all the time that when you go back into retracement levels that’s when people tend to YOLO into something you go back into retracement

Levels that’s when people tend to YOLO into something and so the point of all this discussion on bitcoin dominance is there’s so many people pointing that this thing has to go up higher we have to get all the way up here but it’s not accounting for the fact that we’ve

Already gone much higher with usdt and they keep pointing to ethereum and just removing ethereum from there we’ve definitely already gotten there heck exclude xrp from the mix where have you gotten all the way back to bingo Bitcoin versus the entire altcoin Market excluding ethereum and xrp

Completely 702 retraced do you know how much it retraced in 2018 18 and 19 you better believe it 702 and I even talked about this back in August when we account for usdt usdc Bitcoin and ethereum it had already 702 retraced and the safety trade was done August 11th

Right here August 11th there was the evidence already there that the safety trade was done the dominance narrative was over and still to this day that has been the peak which was a 702 retrace and I know a lot of people won’t want to admit it that there was probably some

Yoloing into Bitcoin couldn’t afford not to be in Bitcoin going through such an intense moment yesterday that they likely grabbed Bitcoin in that retrace after the first lower low so the question is do we see diverences emerging in here in the dominance to say the trend could be reversing on the

Dominance at this point and sure enough we see a lot of weakness right this whole grind up in here look how strong the stochastic is the whole time now it’s just struggling to even couldn’t even get back up to 100 that time just went right back down to the lows look at

The macd in here all of this happening with the macd in here wait a minute I thought Bitcoin was the the showstopper looking over there at the monthly time frame you just see it in here right just pointing straight down here for the monthly stochastic RSI and really just

Weakening and weakening and weakening here on the macd the lowest that we’ve seen since the part of 2022 even if we just look at Bitcoin dominance and not take into account any of that stable coin stuff ethereum xrp and just look at Bitcoin dominance exclusively even on

These bigger time frames like the two week time frame look what is showing up right there for the first time since October of 2021 right there I guarantee there is somebody who YOLO their altcoins into Bitcoin this week and just said oh no and while I don’t know if you saw the market

Yesterday bitcoin’s big day I’m sure you saw it the whole Market was green and Bitcoin was red look at it today you got green all over the place where’s Bitcoin red look at ethereum starting to go are we seeing the rotation beginning and was that the end of the Bitcoin run my

Suspicion is it was the end again there’s lots of distribution structures that can happen in here there’s things we’ve talked about with what the stock market looks like and whether Bitcoin is going to have something that does look more like that in the it ends up you

Know that’s for that’s for another day um but as for the actual run on this channel I’m treating it as if that was the top that was Max Euphoria yesterday now it’s time for the show to spread elsewhere and I think the market is telling us that it is especially when we

Look at like stable coins and ethereum versus the Bitcoin dominance and even if we don’t take any of those things into account the market is telling us time is coming and for that I am 92% % in the altcoin market so that’s the focus now waiting to see big breaks happen there

It’s an exciting time for sure there’s a lot of excitement in the market now this excitement needs to try to find some yield because I don’t think they’re getting it in Bitcoin so we’ll keep checking on it every day and I look forward to what the coming weeks have

Ahead of us but on that note I’m going to go ahead and wrap this thing up if you’d like more content for me of course you can check that out over here on BCB backer.com there’s over 40 videos here and over 11 hours of content deep diving into the historical behavior of the

Cryptocurrency market to give you a fundamental understanding of how this Market has worked in the past while also teaching you how to set up your own charts and your own indicators within trading View and coin Trader Pro try to explain things and very easy to understand ways like I do here on the

YouTube channel and there’s also extra stuff in here like the historical behavior of the cryptocurrency market and a lot of other stuff like research that helped improve odds when we’re talking about like developer data why percentages matter way over pric such as with Bitcoin we saw it what 12% over the

Last month versus all the altcoins the bigger percentages happening in there we all focus on those big round numbers I also talk about the importance of tokenomics and the market caps that’s why we show the market caps a lot on here also really important crowd Behavior which also goes along with

Emotional management there’s downloadable PDFs in here for a lot of this different stuff if you’d like to have print outs of it such as like with the Elliot wave stuff you’ll be able to download these PDFs for yourself so you can them out or save them to your hard

Drive this is all available over here on BCB backer.com it’s 39 bucks no subscriptions over here one time and it’s yours again right here at BCB backer.com I do also write a newsletter over here on blockchain back. substack docomo year for 2023 as we’re looking into 2024 what we’re seeing ahead

Sometimes we’ll do case studies in here that we just went through a four-part series about developer data circulating Supply inflation and percentage drawdowns with the 2021 bull run to see if there was better returns by focusing on those data points rather than just shopping in the top 20 of course we we

Found elements that massively beat the top 20 by market cap all of that is still available here for anybody who does subscribe or anybody who newly subscribes then of course we try to apply that to today’s market to see what that would look like now with those same

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