Raoul Pal – Ethereum is the Moon Shot! – 2024 Price Prediction

Raoul Pal – Ethereum is the Moon Shot! – 2024 Price Prediction

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2024 sure there’ll be some ups and downs for sure but it should be liquidity driven business cycle driven inflation falling unemployment a little bit higher rates coming lower stimulus should be on its way more cowbell is the way of the world and it’s the way of the world

Since 2008 and it will continue as so it suggests that ethereum may have a really good first half of 2024 the target from using the liquidity indicator would be about 5,300 it’s directionally we should be coming to all-time highs in ethereum in the first half of 2024

Roopal a prominent macro Guru and the founder of real Vision has consistently upheld contrarian macro views over the past year amid widespread concerns of a severe recession earlier this year due to fears of the Federal Reserves unprecedented rate hikes breaking the economy pal remains steadfast in his

Contrarian Outlook he focused on what he deems the bigger picture highlighting the perfect correlation he observes between the fed’s balance sheet and the appreciation in asset prices across the board according to Pal understanding this correlation is key to successful investing as he asserts that business Cycles are almost perfectly correlated

With Central Bank activities pal dismisses concerns about recessions inflations deflations and other turns in the business cycle stating that they don’t matter as long as central banks including the FED continue printing money he predicts a steady rise in asset price with two assets crypto and Technology identified by him as not just

Matching but significantly outperforming the increase in the fed’s balance sheet P like many in the digital asset space expresses optimism about the 2024 to 2025 crypto bull market over the next 12 to 18 months he anticipates a substantial increase in the prices of cryptocurrencies and digital assets starting with ethereum which he believes

Is poised to hit a new all-time high of $5,300 per token in his latest crypto and macr master class pal comprehensively analyzes leading macro indicators and outlines his expectations for their impact on the market in 2024 and Beyond the upcoming Clips will provide insights from Pal’s and death analysis

Firstly my macro Outlook always requires a business cycle framework because that’s really what gives us the juice in the trade and I’ll come on the secular Trends later because they’re important too but the business cycle is really the ups and downs of the economy so firstly let’s deal with where

We are today today the present day here’s the business cycle dominoes that help us understand that present day is where the ism is today which is below 50 so we’re in Weak territory but not super weak I thought we get a recession I thought it’d be a mild recession like

1990 I still think we may get a recession we may skirt it doesn’t really matter because as as this chart shows in that kind of gold box risk assets away ahead of ism they live in the future the central banks well they live in the past data they’re still

Looking at is lagging and so they lag by 6 to 8 months which is why they’re still at Peak tightening while the economy is at a trough and risk assets are rising this will all make sense to you shortly so let me keep going many assets just

Follow the business cycle I’ve got here the Russell 2000 that lives in ISM today this weak economy is why we’ve got a weak Russell 2000 the NASDAQ lives in the future which is why it’s strong there’s no weirdness about the decoty between the cyclical companies and the secular trending ones they always have

This time lag it’s not some broken structure of the market or this is a bubble that’s a bubble it’s just normal it’s normal that the Russell 2000 lives in present day ISM it’s cyclical so that’s where that is crude oil same crude has been weak because the economy has been

Weak crude oil doesn’t forward look the economy what it does is it reflects the present state of the economy another way of seeing the economy as it is today is this chart the number of states with decreasing coincident activity so number of states with bad economic data that’s very high

It’s kind of in recession territories when it crosses this 26 level we’re usually in a recession do we get a proper recession or not doesn’t really matter because a lot of that was priced in last year to the assets I care about the forward-looking assets of crypto and

Tech which I’ll talk more about next year well here we start to see the economic indicators picking up so the Empire and Philly fed the average of those is already showing an uptick they’re Crossing that kind of zero level to say hey growth is about to come back the ism news orders minus

Inventories this is a classic business cycle indicator probably the most classic it gives you a 3-month lead on ISM and it’s screaming higher it’s telling us that the ism is going to recover pretty sharply and that recession fears whether we get one or not will be in the rear viw

Mirror things will be getting stronger going forwards and I know the last 18 months has been tough for many your portfolios and everything you owned got nuked in 2022 it’s taken people’s confidence away I get it also people have lost jobs people’s revenues have come down it’s not

Easy but what I can tell you is 2024 is going to bring new sparks the transition from macro spring into macro summer will take us from 2024 into 2025 in the video pal delves into additional leading indicators that in his view substantiate a more optimistic economic outlook for 2024 compared to prevailing predictions

Pal anticipates a robust increase in the United States ISM purchasing managers index early in 2024 projecting sustained growth throughout the year and into 2025 as the economy gains momentum as economic strength builds asset prices are expected to naturally Ascend further fortifying the overall economic landscape Pal’s bullish sentiment for

2024 is reinforced by the fact that it is an election year in the United States following the pattern observed in election years pal foresees the Federal Reserve deploying a substantial amount of new credit into the economy this injection is anticipated to lead to higher asset prices addressing concerns about higher unemployment or persistent

Inflation pal asserts that according to market dynamics these factors were priced in several months ago rendering them less significant in the current Outlook the video proceeds with pal expanding on his perspective regarding liquidity in 2024 and its implications for crypto assets such as ethereum tune in as pal shares his insights on this

Subject liquidity Global M2 simplest form of liquidity it’s rising it’s above zero going up full cycle in play liquidity cycle that is what we want to see as we get liquidity it drives assets more on that in a bit GMI total liquidity index that’s taking private liquidity public liquidity it’s the

Broadest perspective of liquidity we can create well into positive territory it’s above the kind of 5% when it gets really interesting and liquidity then accelerates but it’s this year-on-year rate of change that matters this most and it’s really going up fed net liquidity you’ve heard me

Talk about this a lot many people on Twitter fed net liquidity Eur year going up it’s above zero fed is injecting liquidity the treasury will start drawing down on the treasury general account through a first repos trading and eventually the FED will give up with QT positive positive for risk assets we

Also have a lead indicator and this is the kind of d trended uh liquidity cycle and here you go and you can see the forward looking lead indicator all the way through 7 months ahead keep seeing more liquidity so that’s going to be great for markets in 2024

2024 sure there’ll be some ups and downs for sure but it should be liquidity driven business cycle driven inflation falling unemployment a little bit higher rates coming lower stimulus should be on its way more cowbell is the way of the world and it’s the way of the world

Since 2008 and it will continue as so okay our financial conditions index it’s a great lead which is why Julie and I spend a lot of a Time living in that particular future which is 11 months ahead of ism it actually leads Global liquidity by five months and it suggests

Global liquidity should be in the coming months by mid 2024 at 20% year onye that’s a really positive liquidity condition and that will drive assets so if we were to price the NASDAQ versus is a 20% year-on-year increase by May 2024 as the previous chart showed would that

Put the NASDAQ at 17 a half thousand by May 2024 the nasdaq’s actually diverging from liquidity right now and that’s normal at this point in the cycle so the moment liquidity improves it explodes higher that’s normal price action and it may overshoot these targets I have no

Idea but I use this to keep me intellectually honest ethereum perfectly works against the global liquidity index and again it suggests that ethereum may have a really good first half of 2024 the target from using the liquidity indicator would be about 5,300 again don’t take this as as you know written

In stone it’s directionally we should be coming to all-time highs in ethereum in the first half of 2024 let’s see how that plays out but it makes me very bullish on crypto assets asss ahead of us lies the monetization of the payments from the covid cycle you saw this year in the bond

Market when they started to try to issue new bonds to pay for some of the interest payments the bond market freaked out it’s because there’s too much debt and you have to you have to issue an extraordinary amount of bonds when your interest payments have gone up from let’s say 1% to 5%

% they can’t do it the numbers don’t add up and so something has to change that’s something I think is they have to bring rates lower and then eventually they will have to use the balance sheet and being late in cutting rates is their way to ensure inflation unders shoots their

Target and I’ve shown that seems like it’s pretty much baked in the cake and that’ll give them the cover that they need to relaunch QA pal asserts that a global economic reset occurred in 2008 prompting major world economies to recognize the stagnation or decline of the two pivot factors for GDP growth

Demographic and productivity growth despite this debts continue to accumulate reaching 100% of GDP for many economies to save off the inevitable pal contends That central banks opted to absorb these debts onto their balance sheets and periodically print money however he argues that this approach has led to a point of no return compelling

Central banks to consistently provide liquidity to safeguard the economic balance Pal’s General bullishness on asset prices both short and long-term stems from his belief that central banks will perpetually inject money into the economy sustaining asset prices indefinitely yet pal acknowledges a flip side to this scenario traditional asset classes he contends aren’t genuinely

Growing in real terms but are merely responding to continuous liquidity injections without experiencing real value appreciation this according to Pal may lead to continuous currency debasement without a Corr responding increase in purchasing power Pal’s overarching thesis is O Bleak assessment that everything is in disarray with the only

Viable solution to the GDP predicament lying in increased productivity growth this is where he sees the significance of crypto technology and the exponential age explaining his bullish stance on these asset classes as pal lays out his predictions and outlook for the cryptocurrency industry during the Bull Run he invites viewers to share their

Thoughts comments and observations on his perspectives in the comments section below for more daily dose crypto news check out these two awesome videos on your screen click now and we will see you on the next video