BITCOIN PRICE: WTF POST ETF?!

Subscribe, because we talk Bitcoin: https://youtube.com/@britishhodl23?sub_confirmation=1

Join the British HODL WhatsApp Channel: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaCjxJNElagxBU4txX2m

Connect with me on Twitter / X: https://twitter.com/BritishHodl

Watch “The $5m Bitcoin” Training here: https://britishhodl.com/The5MBitcoin/

For advertising inquiries, please email: BritishHodl@ProtonMail.ch

WARNING: Please be aware of spam bots in the comments pretending to be me. These are scams and you should NEVER send your money or Bitcoin to anyone. Please be careful.

Oh my God this Bitcoin ETF came out and no money came into Bitcoin in fact Bitcoin decided to crash what the hell do we do I thought everyone was saying that there was going to be a god candle and now there’s no candle what do we do

There was God candle and now we got no candle in fact worse than a no candle we got a negative candle we got a red candle what the hell happened I thought British hudle you said that all this Capal was going to come into the ETF

Blah blah blah blah blah okay let’s talk about this let’s talk about exactly what’s happened here right so the Bitcoin ETF is live not only is it live it is trading not only is it trading we’re still fighting enemies you got people like Vanguard and meril Lynch

Being the grinches of the Bitcoin ETF and not even allowing their customers can you imagine that you call them up and say hey you got my money I want to buy some Bitcoin ETFs with it licensed regulated by the SEC I want to buy some of this product and they say n get

no actually what they say is sorry these products don’t align with the philosophies that we have at Vanguard if anyone is watching this and you got a Vanguard account like a Vanguard is managing your retirement account it takes you 5 minutes to move it to Fidelity and I suggest everyone do

That now what’s happening to the price the price has absolutely collapsed back down to where it was on the 8th of January right so uh and it is currently the 12th of January so 4 days ago the price is back down to where it was 4 days ago it’s currently sitting at

$43,500 what the happened where’s this money right that’s what everyone’s wondering so I’m going to answer so why I I believe uh this is going on now and I was waiting for the gbtc net flows data to be released before I did this video and came to a

Conclusion my prediction around the ETFs by the way was $3.5 billion of net inflows in the first week of trading and secondly if that happened we would see a price of 57 to $62,000 I’m still with that I’m not changing that until and I’ll re-evaluate that off the close of business this

Coming Thursday right because that will be a week of trading it’ll actually be one day short because Monday’s a market holiday so but that’s when I’ll re-evaluate that prediction what’s going on in the market well why is the price down British hudle what’s going on if all this Capital Black Rock at $2

Billion where did Black Rock’s two billies go you were wrong so let’s let’s evaluate what’s happened as far as these inflows go based on the data that James uh and Eric have been putting out from Bloomberg intelligence what we know is roughly about $700 million went uh well

Firstly it was the most successful asset class launch of an ETF in history it’s like 36 billion of volume and but volume is different than net inflows volume is the dollar value of every trade whether it’s a buy or a sell volume is extremely important because it will dictate the

Amount of liquidity and it will dictate the ability for people to move in and out of the asset certain businesses certain funds certain hedge funds won’t even get into an asset until there’s a certain amount of volume involved so I was again why why was I waiting for the

Net flows data to come out because I wanted to see what the bleed was from gbtc like I said the business plan here for a lot of these funds is going to be hey we have a like black rock 0.12% fee per year so therefore if you

Hold gbtc you’re going to be paying 1.5 % dump your gbtc get into the Black Rock fund and you’ll be paying 0.12% up to $5 billion and then 0.2% after that so clearly the business plan was let’s make gbtc bleed and again like I said it

This was the best way for Gary Gensler to try and punish grce scale for the for the lawsuit that they went through because on day one if I’ve got a fund that’s going to offer me 0.12% versus a fund that’s going to keep charging me 1.5% clearly what I’m trying

To orchestrate is get this fund the one that’s charging a lot to to to dump its assets and put it into this one here makes perfect sense so even if I am Black Rock and I’ve got all this Capital sitting on the sidelines waiting to come

In I’m not going to do it until the bleeding stops here because then the price will be lower if I have no buying orders in the market and all that happens is people hit sell sell sell sell sell on this high price fund then it’s going to create a a price movement

In the market to the downside that’s what I believe is going on here so the B the buying pressure is not keeping up with the selling pressure because the buying pressure in my opinion has not even entered the market we got 700 million coming in over 11 funds right

The buying pressure has not even entered the market yet because I believe what they’re trying to do is bleed out gbtc as much as they can and they and to a certain extent you know they got the goal that they wanted which is the most successful asset launch of an ETF ever

Right so that part’s done now the next mission here is okay so gbtc has got a bleed right like we got a bleed gbtc but guess what happened in reality now that we can see the net in by by the way to put this into perspective Black Rock

Said you know rumors were that they had $2 billion lined up to go into the fund after the first day there’s only $111 million in there right so clearly either that was a lie which I don’t think it was or it’s not been executed right

Because by the way if I’m an adviser for Black Rock I got my ETF guy on the phone I’m going to call him and say hey because remember as soon as I send the money to the ETF they have to execute within within one or two days based on

The perspectus they have to execute on the Bitcoin so if I’m an adviser and I’ve got $2 billion lined up I’m going to call my ETF guy say hey what’s the order books looking like and he’s going to say it’s looking kind of crazy looks like gbtc is selling it with all the

Redemptions going on okay cool let me know once the bleed stops hang up now I just wait I wait until gbtc drives down the price the selling pressure from gbtc drives down the price and then he calls me and says hey looks like the order books are thinning out do you want to

Start placing your orders that’s the bottom of the market and then I say cool execute on uh you know a billion dollars worth of purchases over a period of time so you’ve got that side of it right that’s a game that wall Street’s going to play and remember it’s two parts to

Two parts in the same business I’m the adviser of the capit and now we’ve got my ETF execution team that needs to actually actually execute on the purchasing of the underlying assets so there’s that secondly there’s going to be those people who the second like I told you I’m not the only one

That that knows this right there’s a lot of smart people that know exactly what happened when Black Rock decided to file for the ETF Black Rock filed they started buying the bit Bitcoin they’re Traders and all they did was buy the Bitcoin buy the Bitcoin buy the Bitcoin

Wait until approval and then dump into to the market so you got that dumping out if you did that trade by the way that’s a 75% profit 77% profit so there’s that selling pressure that’s going on on top of that you’ve got the volatility that’s created with a cash

Creates ETF the difference between an in kind and the cash creates is that and I believe this is why gbtc was was was holding on hardest for the for for the in kind because in an in-kind process if I want to move a big amount of Bitcoin

From gbtc to Black Rock I make a phone call I say hey I want to move my assets from gbtc and I want to send them to Black Rock custody it’s like you know the assets obviously get moved with Bitcoin it’s not that hard but the

Assets get moved and then there is a book entry on this asset was moved from this account to this account it’s in the same name and I reissue the shares and I’m done I don’t need to insert the market I don’t need to insert the asset into the market whereas with a cash

Creates and a cash redeems I have to sell gbtc which forces gbtc to dump the Bitcoin into the market and then I have to go and click Buy on the Bitcoin on the Black Rock fund which then forces Black Rock to go back into the market and buy the

Bitcoin now imagine if you hit sell on your gbtc and now you start seeing the market go down because the order books were so thin what are you going to do you’re going to immediately immediately click Buy on the Black Rock f are you going to

Sit there and go hey maybe let’s wait a couple hours and see where this thing goes I would do that if I sold a bunch of gbtc and I see the price start to drop I’m going to say hey let’s wait a bunch let’s wait a few hours and see

Where this thing goes maybe we could get some more Bitcoin so you got that pressure going on because they have to actually sell it into the market and then buy it from the market you can’t just send the assets uh o over but let’s look at what’s what’s

Happened here to gbtc So the plan was in my mind to make gbtc bleed right 1.5% fee it turns out that gbtc team seems to have done an excellent job here because there was only $95 million out of a $27 billion AUM $95 million that came out of the gbtc

Fund so they’ve played this game right they’ve got the highest F highest fee fund and it’s BL hasn’t had much bleeding at all right1 million on a 28 28 27 billion AUM is is nothing so congrats to the gbtc team because it seems like everyone has said okay I’m

Just gonna stay here for a while right now will that selling will this rotation still happen over time sure but remember like you’ve got people in retirement accounts with vangard that can’t even purchase Bitcoin the ETFs yet you’ve got all of this Capital sitting on the sidelines that’s waiting for the right

Price to get in and so that’s caused this price dip over here but that doesn’t mean the C the the buying orders are not there it means that the Buy buying orders have not entered the market there’s a lot of people that are thinking that just because the ETF the

The price of the asset went down as the ETF go launched the asset’s completely irrelevant that’s not what it is you have if you’re a smart Market maker you’re going to allow this to happen now here’s where I was right but wrong okay right but wrong but correct okay if you

Look at my tweets and you look at my videos and look at what I said uh you know uh look at my video from a few weeks ago which basically bitcoin price post d F what I said would happen is and my original thinking was that the ETFs

Would get approved and then there’ be a month delay until they started trading but what actually happened they got approved and the very next day they started trading first thing in the morning so that wasn’t on my bingo cards at all and if you followed me on Twitter

You know I was surprised by that I said this is kind of crazy so here’s what’s happened right I was wrong because the I thought that we would have the the seld the news event uh happened before the launch of an ETF but I was kind of

Correct because a selda news event happened anyway so now what we’re going to see and what I what I actually said in that video was that we would dump on approval right and then slowly build up to the trading day and what’s happened here is it’s turned into a selda launch

Event because the trading day and the approval day were very very Clos together right it was literally there was no time like it was market closed approved before by the time the Market opens it’s trading so I was kind of wrong but correct uh in that so A lot of

People are saying oh my God this capital is not there the capital hasn’t even stepped into the game right you got Black Rock fund with $100 million of assets like what are we talking about here this is this is this is this is nothing right in the grand scheme of

Things so what I think is happening here is very very simple the the cells side order book got filled builded up with gbdc redemptions because there was no heavy buying on the other side because they’re smart buyers right because there was no no buying on the other side the

Price has been driven down we got to wait for and all of the people who sold their gbtc because they didn’t understand what it was they were waiting for the lockup period or waiting for their their discount to come down to less than 5% in order to sell and they

Started dumping and everything there’s just been a lot of selling pressure that’s going on here and the buying pressure is not kept up with the selling pressure so but here’s the thing though I think the buying pressure will keep up I think the buying pressure is there I don’t

Think that black rock does not have $2 billion ready to go into this fund I don’t think Fidelity does not have you know1 to2 billion dollar ready to go into this if that was the case if they really didn’t think that that was going to happen they wouldn’t put a fee waiver

Up to $5 billion into the fund so what I think is going to happen is you’re going to wait for these order books to get cleaned out all of the selling to be to be to be taken up and see at what price it sort of sits at and I think it’s

Going to be here I don’t know whether we’ll see any flash crashes or or anything like that I think it’s going to be here I have a friend who thinks it’s going to go down to 39 but you know he’s always uh right about things that don’t

Matter and and wrong about things that matter so I I I don’t think that’s going to happen we’ll see uh but I you know if I was them I’d be sitting around waiting as long as we get to Market against gbtc Market the fact that we had the most

Successful fund and we still got a few days to start executing our buying position slowly to get the right amount of Bitcoin in right because if you’re an investor and your blackw advisor course you have to say you want me to get you into an allocation uh and say yeah just

Slide me into an allocation over the next month or whatever right like so we’re really going to start so again I hope you understand why I believe that I was wrong but correct right because the selda news event basically H turned into a selda launch event um and then

Yesterday what I thought was happening was that a bunch of sell orders came out of gbtc uh and the market was pretty neutral but that doesn’t look like the case now that gbtc Redemption numbers have come out and it’s absolutely fantastic $100 million only right that’s a unbelievable achievement by

The grayscale team I’m extremely proud of them for for being able to pull that off so bunch of sell olders in the market prices come down cuz the buying pressure hasn’t stepped in yet because the buying pressure is waiting for the selling pressure to hit a bottom and then they’ll start buying and

Accumulating at the bottom of the market so that’s what I think is going on with the price I don’t think an ETF is uh I don’t think this cons constitutes as a failed um you know launch here it’s the most successful asset launch of an ETF

Uh in the history of ETF F there’s a bunch of capital here hundreds of millions of people have been opened up to the ability to invest in Bitcoin now um and this is a you know a fantastic thing for the next month 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months 5 years 10

Years 15 years so you know anyone who’s sitting there disappointed sure I was disappointed too because in the back of my mind even no matter how rational of an investor I I I want to be believe I am just like everyone else I was sitting

Here expecting a a god candle up to the heavens a god green candle up to the heavens on day one but of course right all of the manipulation and everything else that everyone thought was going to happen in the market basically happened that everyone thought it was going to

Happen before the ETF was launched and it’s basically happened after the ETF was launched to drive the price down so they can start acquiring the Bitcoin uh at a lower price and then let the price rise so yeah but you know one of the f fascinating things is how much Bitcoin

Has been sucked out of OTC desks uh in just one day I think it was like 7,000 if I’m corre if I’m if I’m correct please correct me if I’m wrong I can’t remember off the top of my head but tons of Bitcoin OTC desk is like a warehouse

Right and before you actually go to the real Market you can just go to the warehouse and say what you got and just take what you need now if it continues like what’s been happening the buying that’s been happening OT OTC does will be dry by next week at which point

They’ll actually have to go to the market in order to buy that Bitcoin so there’s a lot of good happening here but of course those of us that were absolutely bullish on the launch of the ETF were wrong and I think it’s in part due to the amount of selling pressure

From gbtc uh that came out which wasn’t much by the way but the buying pressure just didn’t step on so therefore we’ve seen a price dip here it’s very very simple mathematics and again I think I was wrong but correct uh let me know what you guys think about that um and

Yeah ultimately no matter what happens with this ETF no matter how successful it is no matter how unsuccessful it is there are still only ever three rules to bitcoin step number one you buy Bitcoin step number two you shut the up and step number three you get fabulously wealthy