Where Will Gold Go in 2024?

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At the end of 2023, gold managed to break to a new all-time high. As part of a series in partnership with the Gold Investment Letter (https://www.goldinvestmentletter.com) and Phenom Crypto Letter (https://phenomcrypto.com), Roger Hirst speaks to Eric Muschinski about whether gold will confirm this breakout in 2024, potential price targets for the precious metal, and whether gold miners and silver will follow gold higher.

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When gold is confirmed to be broken out itself it will let us know by making some violent moves I’m confident that we are we are very close to the this sector turning and gold going and breaking to new highs with a lot of strength and fever who GS the crap about what’s going

To happen in the next two Weeks welcome everyone to navigating the Minefield and this is the first of 2024 and so welcome it Happy New Year to Eric BL W Roger let’s get it rocket is this going to be the year where we finally actually get to grips with a bit of performance from the junior miners

That’s going to be the question I think it’s going to be you certainly on my lips and everyone else’s and obviously everybody remember that this is not investment advice it’s all for education and engagement purposes everybody should do their own research and everybody has their own risk profiles and aims with

Their invest investing so please do your own work and trade accordingly and I think you know maybe a good starting point obviously before we look at the junior Miners and their prospects it’s to have a quick look back at the gold price because between our last recording

In sort of early mid December and then the end of the year we had another test of that all-time high from gold but we still haven’t broken convincingly and you said very frequently last year that you want to see it break above 2100 so presumably your feeling here is is is

Pretty much unchanged you’d still like to see a convincing break of that 2100 level the price action that we saw in early December where we popped above 2100 was shortlived we ended up coming back down throughout the month of December what I want to see and I had

Mentioned before is I want to see a monthly close above 2100 now we did not get that I believe it was somewhere 2076 or somewhere you know within there yeah so that was the number that we closed for the the month of uh going into January so um technically that is

An all-time high okay so that is an all-time high in Gold so that’s a positive however when I’m looking at these things anyway even if we would have broken above 2100 I think for me again taking another a little bit more optimistic but cautious stance is I’d

Love to see two closes in a row uh Above This level so above 2100 yes but certainly above the 2076 wherever we closed uh to close out the year and if we can do that in January then um that’s going to be very bullish Tech technicians and things would like to see

You know two or three closes in a row usually with big breakouts or breakdowns to confirm them so I’m looking at my same stance but for January let’s see what happens the the positive optimistic view is that it’s going to happen this month and the other scenario would be

That we condense and continue consolidating for another eight months before it decides to to rip uh that’s a scenario that could be the case as well and you talked about this you know so these were we got a monthly close and a yearly close at the highest level ever

On gold but you’re looking for that confirmation so you want to basically see another month where you can kind of go okay it believes in this level it wants to stay up here and now you know maybe we still got that sort of psychological 2100 but just feel it

Needs that confirmation level I’d like the confirmation but listen when gold is confirmed to be broken out itself it will let us know by making some violent moves I mean it’s not going to just stop at 2105 or 2150 regardless of where the monthly close is we’re going to feel it I think

Because we’re going to see it with our eyes and we’re going to see the uh the power start to kick in and that’s what we really want I mean the technical closes are step one step two is gold starts to show that you know I it’s funny watching all

The uh you know the Bitcoin investors about gold going away and things you know I’m one of these few guys as you know I I love them both for you know slightly different reasons but uh gold still the what I would call the the The Lion King he might be getting up there

At age a little bit but if those female leaders can’t get that Buffalo down and and he’s hungry he may very well just come over and take the thing down himself and get out of bed and uh and you’ll see some ferocity that’s the way

I look at gold and I think that that is what we will start to see a little bit of in the price action when it’s ready to go you that Spike high the first move High we got felt like a spike high on probably some stop losses Etc because it

Was effectively in fact I think it was on the overnight sessions to Sunday night uh Monday morning us time and kind of it had all been done and dusted by the time we all came in even in European Time so it didn’t really feel like it

Was a a convincing move and what I guess you’re looking for is that convincing move but your your feeling here is that when you say it’s going to move it’s not going to go 2200 it’s going to go 2500 it’s it’s going to have some momentum

Behind it when it has that proper move to those higher levels my work has shown that uh on you know a real breakout of an all-time high on a quadruple top which has been 12 years in the Bing the minimum that I’m looking for uh call it

Within like 9 months um is $2,700 gold so that’s a 30 plus% move in gold which is pretty rich right um I think it go go over 3,000 within 15 months like we’re going to look at you look at the past moves in Gold these moves on the upside

To new highs we’re going to know it we’re going to have a different conversation when we’re in the middle of that move and what’s to guarantee that it’s going to happen why does go could just roll back over and go back to 1700 I just don’t think that’s a likely

Scenario uh at all uh in fact you know I think part of my consensus reading one of the big benefits I get having a newsletter that writes to over 50,000 subscribers is that I get to hear from a lot of consensus uh levels you know the institutional investors the Brokers the

RAS the family offices the retail individual you know and taking that litmus test and one that I really could could zero in if you’d like a little bit I I find found this interesting recently is some of my talks with the junior Mining Company CEOs and their mindset

About like I mean they are just they’re they are so you don’t have any CEOs that I’ve talked to on the lower end of the Junior market who are willing to bet that this year is going to be better than last year even much less be excited they’re scared they’re timid they’re

Like you know they’re beaten down they’re just mummified I think that’s a good sign we mentioned it before the sentiment with affected across the whole range of people that be investors through to uh the actual people driving these companies has been um pretty much rock bottom but before we get onto that

Because I think there going to be a very interesting um conversation on the junior miners something we’ve not actually mention too much but we probably should bring into this is um silver the the ugly brother of gold as it were do you think this is the year

It’ll make a decision whether it’s an industrial metal or whether it’s a precious metal because it seems to be kind of it tries to break with Goal when goal goes but obviously it’s been in this sort of downtrending range so it’s got a lot more work to do to get just

Above the most recent highs never mind the alltime highs do you think that silver is still not really sure whether we’re in a recessionary industrial slowdown versus a f currency kind of you know central banks on in the driving seat I prefer to call Silver Gold’s wild cousin rather than the ugly redheaded

Stepchild or something like that so uh the wild cousin is uh probably aopo I I think silver is I have a thesis on Silver that I’ve held for a long time that it hasn’t changed and when it comes to this whole uh Dynamic of how we view

Silver my view is that in a real legitimate secular bull market in Gold a absolutely silver will participate and it will outperform gold we’ve seen this over and over and over but in struggling times silver will underperform and there’s more of a focus during those periods of time about the economic

Sensitivity of silver due to its use in many different areas uh as an industrial metal now as a monetary metal my view is that as more focus goes into uh gold as money gold as a Haven against debasement gold as an alternative a store of value against Fiat

Currencies and inflation and things of this nature the more that we see that market improve into a bull market the more that the lens simply in everybody’s mind starts to subtly change from this is an industrial metal to this is a monetary medal and that’s when silver

Gets that kick uh towards that latter part of you know we could talk about the parabot principle you know 80% of a move in the last 20% % of time type of thing silver really kicks into its own as we get into a little bit more of the thick

Of a bull run of the monetary metal King which is gold and I suppose in terms of the sort of timing 2024 is also quite a a a difficult one to predict because it feels like you know we we still have this uncertainly unresolved recession everyone thought we were going to get

The recession the recession never actually materialized in 2023 and there’s very plausible Arguments for a recession this year and also plausible ones why we might avoid it so I guess that’s one of the reasons why you know it’s really hard to sort of say whether

This will be the year and how early it will be because obviously we’d really want the recession to come along for us to feel those spigots that sort of fear spigot is going to be properly open once more but you get the sense that this outperformance of gold that we’ve seen

Well not so much outperformance but the performance of gold that we’ve seen compared to where real yields have been and you know gold should be a lot lower compared to where real yields were it feels like it’s anticipating that come what may these central banks these policy makers are going to resort to

More debasement printing you know basically loose policy which has been such a beneficiary for the gold market is that why basically you have this view that it’s unlikely to see 1700 before we go and see you know those those higher numbers because we’re going to expect policy makers will use this fear

Currency debasement as one of their main policy tools what do we need to have happen on the you know quote unquote disaster side or the problematic side to justify the race Cuts so could there be some level of uh hiccup I’m a little concerned about the level of bullishness out there for 2024

In general you know the everything sort of uh bull market I uh I’m a little bit cautious about that because and that that pertains to even has my radar up on my crypto Investments as well but uh it’s like all this clear sailing right we’ve got so many Dynamics particularly

The main thing being a pivot in the Central Banking stance and lowering of yields but I don’t know what may need to happen first so let’s just say we need some sort of uh Catalyst for them to really go okay we’re going to start lowering rates or could they just start

To do it but I think that the motivation would be whether it’s more Banks blowing up uh or something of this nature some large large player that’s tied to commercial real estate that is seeing some of the loans coming due that just just is is is going to poof uh and going

To cause a lot of damage because it’s a big one or a big couple but when you look at November 2021 and those highs we saw in all the asset classes and then you fast forward one year I still remember I was taking gold that I had

Bought from switching out my Bitcoin eth some you know altcoins and things of that nature and other profits that I had and moving it into physical gold uh as that store of value as that def because things were just getting too you know too kind of wily on the speculative side

For me and I have a lot of speculative assets so I did that and one year later approximately I remember looking at it and we have Bitcoin in November of 22 was down over you know 60% uh 65% and the S&P was down you know whatever it was I’m not exactly

Recalling but 25 30% or whatever and my gold was down 1% so then I started to move my gold over uh to buy some of the speculative assets back uh again and the reason I bring that up is because even in the in the headwinds like you talked about Rising rate environment um

Everything you would think would KN gold on its butt it did it and so what is going to happen now in the scenario going forward that all of a sudden is going to cause gold if we’re on the precipice of the next phase within the the Central Banking systems of the world

Being to ease a bit uh whether they ease and go back to zero I I have no idea I I would actually not plan on that being like an automatic case uh but stimulus coming and you know them pausing and them coming back down um you know and

The yield curve and everything else gold in the face of all those things barely went down so now you’re looking at it going forward into 2024 and I’m just thinking that it’s a rarity uh even in the crashes of 2020 and oh even go back to 0809 you

Know like gold itself in the worst of environments was briefly down briefly 30% from its highs and snap back from there and then you’re back to you know down 15% when everything else is still crumbling that’s the beauty of gold that’s what people don’t understand

About gold that I think uh it should get more credit for is also on the defensive side you don’t need go through those uh gut-wrenching declines even though it can be fairly volatile at times so anyway I think that uh to your point what it’s hard to predict like is it

Going to be disaster than Cuts or is it just going to start to cut I don’t know and then just moving back now just to sort of think about those Junior miners whether it be gold or silver or whatever it feels like and one of the frustrations I think for for everyone

Who’s been investing in them is that it seems that we’ve not had a lot of beta relative to gold for instance in the gold miners on the upside side they’ve slightly outperformed so from the the October September October lows yes I think that the junior miners have outperformed for instance gold but not

By much but then every time you have a small pullback on gold they have that higher beat on the downside so it feels like you don’t get as much bang FB on the upside you’re getting more unfortunate negative bang for your buck on the downside which things going to

Change that when when does that shift into these things will have a two 3x beta to the upside and massively outstrip gold so if Golds at 2500 these things have gone up two or three times and in some cases more and obviously there’ll still be that beater on the

Downside but what what’s going to change that because it seems that the frustration for a lot of people is that it pulls back too much for most people’s liking but doesn’t get enough of The Upside when we get the upside I’ve been a bit early in some of my

Prognostications with I have money in this space uh accumulating what I thought were already very cheap Junior miters and those valuations have continued to grind lower during 2023 certainly so we’ve been in a bare Market it is coming up I believe it’s next month will be uh 3.5 years of a bearer

Since we topped out in August of 2020 and what we need is a bull market which hasn’t evidently occurred yet I could say this I put a friendly bet out there Roger that once we see $2500 gold even those midcaps uh the billion five market cap like Equinox the I80 uh silver core

Uh silver storm especially the small one um those stocks when we’re at $2500 gold they will have already doubled at a minimum uh if not be up 3 to 4X at that time I think that with gold that high it’s just it’s too much to the bottom

Line for the producers you know the I mean you literally at the end of the day what is business and investing about it’s about you know profitability and a multiple on that multiples on cash flows you know and so the miners are going to be at a very I think robust profitable

Environment so there’s there’s not much of a chance that they’re just going to stay without a pulse right so that then creates and drives the activity down the line where the bigger companies are flush they know that okay well now we’ve got to go start locking up the minds of

The Next Century and they start going to the Juniors those start popping and getting bought out and more speculate speculative money coming in so it you know it one thing drives the other one hand washes the other and I don’t even believe though that we need gold to

Break out at all gold could go down to 1900 and a lot of these Junior Gold stocks are still way too underpriced their stocks are what I call bombed out the sellers are all gone you know they have uh they’ve Bond these things out there’s just no buying so it’s being

Held in this you know concerted group of long-term holders like myself and a lot of my subscribers at Gold investment letter and things like that where we are in it for the long haul I’m still of the opinion that any day any week here early in 2024 the moving past tax LW selling

Season we’re seeing it a little bit in some names they’re starting to float higher because that pressure is gone on the cell side but assuming it’s still a cyclical industry at all and that cyclicality is going to turn into a bullish cycle whenever that time comes

We’re going to do very very well and if I’m early and I continue to chip away at my positions it will be very profitable for me and if I’m wrong and this never turns into a bull market ever again I’m going to be stuck with a lot of bags of

Of trash okay but uh I’m confident that we are we are very close to the this sector turning and gold going and breaking to new highs with a lot of strength and fever there’s no way these deals are not going to move at all they’re they’re going to start popping

So obviously although none of this is Investments as well I think what you’re really sort of looking at here is this there something which we covered in the sort of how to actually invest in this space overall which is you know you have your your Capital you might want to put

To work and actually these pullbacks that we get where the pullbacks in the miners are are greater at least you appear to be greater than the pullback in Gold actually that’s the time to start averaging in some of the capital take some time over it and start building positions for the longer term

Yeah that’s it you know you can you can sit around and kick your couch and uh be a hater cuz somebody mentioned a company and it’s down 50% on paper or you can say look this is the environment we’ve been in how am I going to adapt because

When these things start to turn they turn fairly violently they are going to be very difficult on the smaller end of the spectrum to buy in any positions of size without these stocks going up 50 to 100% so that is a beautiful thing for somebody like me who is like down 40 4%

Or 35% or 20% unrealized in some of these areas and then all of a sudden that 50% move I’m in the money I’ve got a massive position and we’re just the part is just getting started so I can start to scale out of my risk with some

Of that stuff that is very high risk earlier in the cycle just taking that third of a position or whatever it is close to a triple my principal is almost gone you know my cost average is nominal and then I sit back and I give it time but I’m okay with stomaching big

Volatility big unrealized losses but the end game I believe is going to play itself out very nicely it’s just the tough part then comes in which is like when do I start to really exit uh that’s the tough one that we’re going to have to worry about in the next three years

Who games the crap about what’s going to happen in the next two weeks really we’ve tackled quite extensively over the last sort of five six episodes the the sort of mining space and the gold space but next week we’re going to get the sort of the base level view or your base

Level view of how to invest in the world of crypto I’m looking forward to that one because that’s a space I have very very little knowledge about awesome hey thanks Roger I appreciate It