Rafi Farber’s Warn! Why I Changed My Entire Prediction on Gold and Silver Price

Rafi Farber’s Warn! Why I Changed My Entire Prediction on Gold and Silver Price

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Meaning the price of gold is going up trending higher and higher and higher which it will continue to do but the amount of gold Holdings in paper funds across the world keeps falling I expect this to continue now let’s go to another zoom in and you’ll see what’s happening here Gold’s Disappearance in

2023 800 tons vanished from ETFs and funds contributing to the 1200 tons lost since 2020 central banks and stackers took shares the discover the prevailing shift from derivatives to authentic gold uncovering the reasons behind its Ascent don’t go anywhere and keep watching this important and informative video of rafie

Farber but anyway if any of you are wondering yes I do personally believe that 2024 will be the year of the endgame but I’m not hanging my emotions or My Sanity on it in the sense that if it doesn’t happen I won’t be crushed I will continue to stack but I do

Intellectually believe that this year will be the year of the final financial crisis and we’ll get into that in a second I wanted to talk today about gold because something happened in 2023 in the gold market that is very important that almost nobody is actually pointing out and I will show you the

Shape on a chart there’s 1,200 tons of gold missing somewhere and they either went to central banks or to stackers or to both probably to both in what portions I don’t know but this is a sign that both central banks and retailers are starting to get the picture that the

Dollar will not survive for much longer at this point they are primarily a gold mining company but silver is still second in command here in terms of sales 15% versus 78% for gold but I expect that to radically shift as the 15 to1 historic monetary ratio gets reestablished once the dollar dies as

The primary gold derivative of the world I expect FSM to be half silver minor half gold minor in terms of revenues and that should greatly increase its profitability one of the reasons why I like FSM and why I am a shareholder is that in case the endgame is still

Another year or two away we have the stability of gold miners here and in the case that it hits this year then we have plenty of silver to be mined here and once that ratio Falls to 15 to1 or around it 20 25 whatever it is it’s now

Somewhere around 80 then fsm’s bottom line will be greatly improved whether or not the end gain happens this year or next I believe it is one of the more stable gold and silver stocks to own but of course do your due diligence and do your own research SE Arch now what I’m

Going to do here is show you a chart the same chart in three different slides but different perspectives on it this is total gold Holdings total transparent gold Holdings on a monthly chart transparent gold Holdings means uh the amount of gold that are in transparent funds like GLD like the comx like

Anything that can be accounted for where we know the gold is whether it’s unallocated accounts or or ETFs or Holdings uh let’s say the Perth Mint or whatever it is that people might want to buy gold with so this is that and what we can see here is going back all the

Way to 1974 and gold was only legalized for ownership that wasn’t in jewelry form which is really pretty stupid I mean if you can own gold jewelry you can own gold so outlawing gold in monetary form you can’t have it in a coin but you can

Have it in a necklace I mean how stupid is that it’s pretty damn dumb which shows you the insanity of monetary policy that they don’t let you have a coin but they let you wear a ring like what the hell is the difference I’m getting ahead of myself here 1974

December 31st 1974 was when Futures gold trading was legalized and they used this mechanism to control the gold price through derivatives so anyway you see here the yellow line and the blue line the yellow line is the gold uh value in dollars and the blue line is the amount

Of gold the tons stored in transparent funds across the world now what you see here from 1974 until 2020 is that the two lines are basically in tandem more or less it really picks up around 2005 when the GLD ETF is founded until then owning gold in paper form or in

Derivative form was not that popular uh but we still see it pretty much goes in line even before 2005 with the founding of the GLD ETF uh and then at 20 2005 the Blue Line the tonnage of gold held in transparent funds across the world

Goes up along with the gold price uh but we see something changing in 2022 to be precise and we will zoom in there you can see where the yellow line and the blue line intersect that means the gold price is rising but the amount of Holdings of physical gold in funds

Across the world is falling falling and that has been the case since November 2022 the question is why now let’s zoom in on this chart a little bit and we have the same thing counting from 2005 until today so this really is the first Divergence ever you can see here the two

Lines pretty much going in tandem uh proportionally to each other till we get to 2020 over here and then at 2022 these lines diverge for good and they have not Recon converged since then we have a discrepancy here meaning the price of gold is going up trending

Higher and higher and higher which it will continue to do but the amount of gold Holdings in paper funds across the world keeps falling I expect this to continue now let’s go to another zoom in and you’ll see what’s happening here in close quarters so somewhere around in

This little box here this little rectangle that I drew somewhere around November 2022 uh gold really took off here from a bottom of I think it was 1618 there was like a little triple bottom over here and gold started to climb really quickly but the paper funds did not store any

More gold so what it looks like is that paper interest or retail interest in Gold funds started to die off over here and has been dying off ever since now put this calculation on top there’s about 1,200 tons unaccounted for uh and I calculated that by uh calculating the

Percentage of how much the gold price Rose since this bottom over here until now and uh calculating what a an equivalent amount of gold would have to be if there was equivalent interest in the paper funds from then until now and I calculated about 1,200 tons so that

Means about 1,200 tons of gold should be in the paper funds mostly GLD somewhat comx uh but they aren’t if there are 1,200 tons un accounted for the question is where the hell are they and you could say oh maybe they’re in central banks but I looked at the Central Bank buying

Over the last few years and though it has increased since 2020 substantially there has been substantial purchases by central banks of gold since 2011 and if central banks are buying gold from the ETFs and other paper funds that wouldn’t make make much sense because then the ETFs and other paper funds would have

Fallen even starting in 2011 but they grew since 2011 until 2020 so these 1,200 tons are not chiefly going to central banks I think they’re going to retailers because if somebody buys a few ounces of gold say from Miles Franklin or whatever then it’s not accounted for in transparent funds because nobody

Knows that you actually have it it’s private I think somewhere around 1200 tons of gold have gone into private hands not into paper funds out of the ETFs since 2020 that means the stackers are accumulating and that is a good sign and I wanted to pay attention here to

Specifically the 200 we moving average of the ratio between silver and the crb the crb index is General Commodities and silver obviously is silver and if this ratio is trending higher that means silver is rising relative to other Commodities and this has been the case despite the volatility

That we’ve seen the extreme volatility we’ve seen especially since 2008 and that’s because of the inflationary and deflationary panics that have been encountered as this money printing scheme since 1933 has spun out of control but I know I understand and I am part of this frustration I understand that the silver

Price can be extremely volatile and frustrating but if we just look at the 200 un moving average here meaning the line of silver relative to other Commodities we see that inexorably the value of silver is rising relative to other Commodities and this means that the moneyness of silver is gradually

Being revealed the problem here is that the FED continues to shrink its balance sheet and by shrinking its balance sheet with quantitative tightening they are reducing the money supply and when you reduce the money supply but the repo Market continues to have elevated volume at some point there aren’t enough

Dollars to loan out overnight in the repo market and you have these two forces headed in opposite directions with the FED shrinking the money supply but the repo Market demanding more and more dollars at some point that ends up with a apocalypse just like it did in

2019 and once this apocalypse hits and I don’t know when exactly but I’m am confident in saying that it will be at some point this year probably early when the reverse repos run out which means when the spare dollars that are still in the tank about 700 billion left when

Those are all borrowed up and sucked up by the treasury which has inordinate amounts of appetite for debt and it can never be satisfied when those dollars run out there will probably be a apocalypse and we will see the final transition from QT quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and

From there we will slip in to the endgame in my view if in your view there’s still some more time then there is no need to panic but I would be ready for the endgame to happen in 2024 whether you personally believe that it

Will hit in 2024 or not it is wise to be ready that in case it does you won’t Panic this is rafy of the endgame investor wishing all of you a great 2024 I think it will be tumultuous but hopefully you will be insulated and there will be the least number of

Casualties possible 2023 witnessed a remarkable drain of physical gold from ETFs and paper funds totaling 800 tons last year and wi2 200 tons since 20220 while some May have reached central banks a significant portion went to committed stackers this shift signifies a positive trend fewer engagements with metal derivatives and a

Strong preference for real gold the choice of tangible assets over speculative instruments defines the evolving landscape of gold investment I hope you have enjoyed today’s video don’t forget to like share and subscribe to our Channel thanks Oh