New Floor For Gold, Price Targets for Silver | Gary Wagner

Gold & Silver are going to reach these price levels, says our guest Gary Wagner of TheGoldForecast.com – we run through the current macro factors impacting the price movements of the precious metals and technical analysis to put a nice bow around it.

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Guest: Gary Wagner, CEO & Publisher
Company: TheGoldForecast.com
𝕏 @garyswagner
🌍 https://www.thegoldforecast.com/

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Recording date: January 15th, 2024
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Welcome back to Sor financially welcome back to the channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro and today we’ll dis discuss charts a bit more technical today uh because I’ll be joined in a few short seconds here by Gary Wagner he’s the CEO and producer

Over at the Gold forecast you probably came across his name because he produces a lot of gold commentary on a daily basis actually lot of great content and I couldn’t believe it I last had him on the channel seven months ago no idea why it took so long to bring him back uh

Fantastic guest always love chatting with him but before I bring him on the screen make sure to hit that subscribe button it’s somewhere down there I don’t know YouTube keeps moving it so ju just go and find it really appreciate if you hit that and now let me bring Gary on

The screen Gary it’s great to see you again thanks so much for joining us happy New Year to you Happy New Year to you and it is great to uh uh have an interview with you again yeah it’s been way too long I couldn’t believe it when

I saw it was 7 months I don’t know why time flies but uh a lot has happened since and a lot for us to go through and chat about um because last we had we had you on last as I said seven months ago gold was extremely volatile we barely

Touched on 1620 around that time per ounce and now we’re trading near all-time high levels let let’s recap what happened Gary it it did move much higher it moved as anticipated but it was not sustainable and so the question really becomes why wasn’t it sustainable and

Why do we have gold at that car and higher now and seems to be sustainable and I think the basic answer to that is that the undertones that are moving gold higher now did not fully exist then on a couple of areas secondly seven months ago when you would ask the Federal

Reserve when are you going to cut rates when are we going to see um interest rates go down they would say we’re not even talking about that and of course in December Powell said that we’ve discussed that and we’re planning on cutting rates over the next three years

Three quarters of a percent 2024 and so on so those are the key differences and the geopolitical landscape is different absolutely yeah you you brought up Powell um I’ve said it in other interviews before my audience probably sick of it as well but I was surprised how aggressively doish he was and how

Clear he was in his language and the market said well you said three let’s turn it into six rate Cuts in 2024 and uh of course the day after one of the the FED presidents came out and say ah we didn’t mean it that way you know rate

Cut Rate rate hikes are still on the table is that what you mean by undertones sort of uh that stopped the the rally in Gold uh absolutely and I remember watching the interview on CNBC of the FED official you’re talking about his words were we’re not even discussing rate

Cuts um and I kind of the my daily video I said really because Powell specifically came out and talked about rate cuts and then when you looked at what’s called thep which is a summary of economic projections which contains a Dot Plot the vast majority were calling for raate

Cuts now there were only two of I believe 18 members or 17 members that did not see rate Cuts as something feasible this year and I’m assuming because though that’s annonymous I’m assuming he is one of those two absolutely it would make sense because he came out quickly and back paddled in

Official capacity which really stopped a rally in the main markets and also the rally in the gold price like right in its trucks so really took the wind out of its sale um let’s talk about that a bit more like let’s talk about the FED policies like what what do you expect

Gary to happen are you more in the three uh three rate cut Camp are you more in the six to eight rate cut cam depends on the source of course you want to listen to I’m curious what what your projection tell you well my projections are based

Upon the Dot Plot and what chairman Paul said at the last press conference we’re not going to hear from them again to a great extent till the end of this month that’s when the next fomc meeting concludes and Paul came out and he said the median dotplot uh which is where the

Majority of Federal Reserve officials believe it will go to are anticipating a total of three rate Cuts this year quarter percent each currently fed funds rates are between five and or five and a quarter and five and a half that would take it you know

Down three quers of a percent uh to the four and a halfs for an a quarter area I have to believe that what the federal reserve put in the dot plots and more importantly what PO said is what they’re anticipating but he also head that bet and always throws in we are

Data dependent and should the data support not doing those rate Cuts or having a rate hike even we are going to be quick to act and so I believe that they’re going to stay on track as long as inflation’s trajectory continues to show a slow and steady decline which

Brings up I believe it was last week or week and a half ago the most recent CPI which actually showed upticks in core and headline and came in fractionally above uh Economist forecasts yeah 3.4% uh also in Euro in the Euro Zone the inflation ticked up again the

Question is now inflation feared like a lot of analysts predicted we’ll see a rebound in inflation it usually is like like a sinus curve but more aggressive more compressed like okay we see the 89% we go down and then we explode higher we come back down and then that usually

Happens in three waves um do do you agree with that or is that just a let’s called an anomaly an anomaly well here’s what I would say is the most important data point that came out since the CPI on the following day the government released the producer price index now

That is usually a precursor to what inflation pressures are going to do because if it costs more to produce something that’s inflation and that will typically get passed on to the retailer or the uh distributor which will then go to the consumer and that actually showed a small

Contraction and So based on the PPI uh not also showing a increase in costs because if it did I would be in the camp of looking for inflation to start ticking up maybe but because it did not I would say that our next set of inflationary reports PC and and the CPI

Will come in closer to the estimates and also show that it declined a little bit it’s not moving higher gotcha okay interesting okay like haven’t made that connection so that’s interesting to hear um you mentioned undertones for gold and uh we’re still recapping a little bit

What happened in 2023 um maybe we can bring up the chart here as well because Gary I’m trying to understand like what what really drove the price of gold higher in 2023 um I’m I’m having a hard time believing it was just geopolitics and Safe Haven investing well there is

The over optimism of the of Federal Reserve action this year as as you just mentioned the vast majority of fed funds Futures Traders and this is based on data from the CME fed watch tool is looking for interest rates to come down much more us not severe but much deeper

Let’s say than um the anticipation of three rate cuts and Market participants have been over overly optimistic and that is not a new thing they always want to think that there’s going to be more and it’s going to be quicker but in terms of what we’ve

Seen this year I don’t believe it has been all geopolitics but I think that the the tension on two fronts Middle East as well as Russia and Ukraine have not been going away and I think that that’s that’s the scary wild card but let’s leave that for the last

Thing I think the first thing is going to be Federal Reserve action because as they bring down interest rates that creates bullish momentum bullish undertones for gold but at the same time inflation going down creates bearish undertone so there’s kind of a push pull there but I think overall it’s

Going to create bullish undertones the other thing is whether or not the the bricks countries who are trying to use their currencies and kind of not to stabilize the dollar but take it off of its Throne as the central currency that the world transacts business with and um

When you look at that and oil that is being challenged right now there was a agreement signed by Iran and Russia that they would do their trading of oil in their local currencies and I think that if brics gets a strong foothold with the countries that are

There and more countries and they’ve got you know some very large countries including China and Russia that could challenge the dollar as the dominant world currency if that happens we could see the dollar lose value as it relates to other currencies and so that’s one thing that we want to

Uh look at because that will have an influence on the price gold the second thing is Federal Reserve and we kind of touched on that and the third thing is geopolitics because what started back in October 7th has only spiraled and now the question is will that spread from a

Regional conflict to involve more countries and we just saw that happen last week with uh a coalition of the United States and Britain attacking I believe believe um 17 targets 60 Targets in 17 areas or 12 areas and that’s worrisome Absol no absolutely as as you

Said like and it drove the gold price higher over the weekend as well like it was an immediate effect on the gold price and but unfortunately like history’s told us that geopolitical gold prices are usually not sustainable absolutely correct uh I tend to call it when when a country is doing

What we call SA rattling so we’ve had the all kinds of Dogma out of North Korea we should annihilate the us we should make sure you know that kind of talk might have a temporary cause a temporary spike in Gold but it won’t be sustainable

And what is a quandry to me is take for example the the conflict in Ukraine after being attacked by Russia that’s in its second year and if anything from the reports that we see and you know I take all reports on the news with a grain of

Salt because there’s going to be an element of truth but depending on the source I don’t take it as a gospel let’s say that’s still going and actually accelerating they’re they’re using stronger weapons bigger missiles um and so it seems as though the public has a short memory for

Actions like that and when they go out of the news cycle and they’re not as reported as intensely as they were on the onset then people begin to Discount that and so that’s one of the reasons when there is uh geopolitical skirmishes you get a spike up and then it quickly

Um comes down it becomes an unsustainable move I think this year could be different I hope I’m wrong I I hope I’m wrong but it’s where I am deriving my target for where gold could go to this year yeah shall we take a look at the chart Gary because uh one

One question I have for you is also is $2,000 the new floor and uh how stable is that floor is it made out of cement or is it really just uh sheetrock it’s definitely not sheetrock um months ago I looked at 2000 becoming a major level of support rather than

Resistance we’ve seen it dip below that a couple of times but recently uh definitely since October and in October we had gold sitting at about 1840 it moved up it came down a little bit you can see that on the chart and if I move my mouse hopefully the audience will see

It but this is what I’m calling the October move here which started right at these lows of about 1840 it then moves up to about 235 and it does dip below that to about 1954 then we had this spike in which we saw it rise tremendously on Friday although it closed at

20193 that’s our highest close on record and this of course is Futures data and then beginning in Australia so Sunday for us on the mainland it actually spiked to 2153 but by the close of New York was back down to 243 and that I that was one of the

Wildest whipsaw markets I’ve seen in a while but since then if you look at the most recent low which occurred uh Monday December 11th it comes in right at around 2000 so I think that a there is solid technical support for gold at 2000 is it concrete let’s say that it’s um unbreakable

Paper because if the right fundamental events occur it would just go through it like a hot knife through butter however if the basic fundamental fabric that we’re looking at now maintains uh to a a a large degree in the same way I think that 2000 is the new level of

Support and it will maintain that absolutely let’s uh sh shall we do a bit of forecasting there Gary um where do you see things headed in 2024 what what do the charts tell you uh given you know the the mix of C circumstances we’ve just discussed as well well as you

Can see I’ve got I I’ve done a couple of things with uh what’s called Fibonacci extension because whenever we’re trying to forecast highs that haven’t shown up yet we as a technician we can’t go back and look at historically where it is but we do have this one high this comes in

Above 2150 I’ve drawn channel line so to speak from the series of lows and these closes here and here I believe that gold could trade as high as $2,200 2250 per ounce this year is that sustainable well history has shown that any large Spike and even if you go back

To the middle of 2011 where for the first time in history gold broke above $1,920 or above, 1900 to an intraday high of about 1920 well how long did that last I believe it was about a day you know it came down very sharply what we saw last year was any move to

About 2,000 and above was a signal to short-term traders to short the market bring back bring it back down that’s not going to change anytime we see gold make a new high uh we’re going to see that get challenged it just that’s how that market tends to work it’s how most

Markets tend to work but I think that right now what I would look for is 293 now we’re sitting at at time of this recording at about 2060 so it’s not a really big stretch to go well it go back to 20090 the thing is we’ve got I’m talk

What I like to look at is will it do that on a closing basis and so on a closing basis I see the challenge being first moving up um above 2100 and then 2150 which is where that one Spike came came in and if that’s going to be

Sustainable so I think that we’ve got a solid floor at 2,000 all things being equal um I think that we could see it Spike much higher and I’m expecting it to spike Higher One based upon the dollar uh because the dollar was exceedingly strong last year moving

From uh the lows below uh uh 102 103 up to 107 and now that’s not the highest we’ve seen it in recent history we’ve seen it at 114 but it moved from 107 back down it’s at 102 and that that’s a that’s a 5% decline in the value of the

Dollar as it pertains to the currencies it trades against um Gary just following up on the chart we had and maybe I’ll bring it back on here as well um okay do you also correlate that with the volume because we see the green green and red bars

Below your chart is that volume in future contract that is Futures volume what you have to understand is you have to take that with the understanding that in Futures it goes by contract month this is what’s called a continuous contract Now tracking February which is why if you look to the

Left the volume is so low there wasn’t really any volume in the February contract it was in the contract that came before that so now we’re getting pretty normal volume and I think that we’ll see the volume coming in and stay at this level and move higher of course

If you look at the end of the year you had uh Traders going on vacation being absent for the new year and that’s where we saw these declines that came in at the end of the year and now it’s just starting to build back up and we’re

Starting to get strong uh volume and strong participation by Traders interesting one thing I was looking for Gary as well is trying to figure out when the generalists are coming back into the market um you know future Traders are usually the more professional Traders it’s not the

Generalists it’s not the people that buy an ETF or an Etc that’s gold backed um do you see any indication of them coming back at all I’m I I I don’t feel comfortable answering that because I don’t have the data to give you an answer that’s based on anything but conjecture gotcha no

Fair fair enough no I appreciate you saying Fair Square is like okay we don’t have that data because I’m just trying to find that correlation and maybe it’s a glimmer of hope as well because as I was asking about the follow-up buying and I think if we would have had some

More generalist in the market maybe that follow through might have happened right well one thing that I can say that addresses that question and it’s an excellent question Kai and that is that people tend to lose interest in buying gold whether it’s your ETFs physical or

Trading in the future when the price is going down so we have seen a slow and methodical kind of stair step up we’re we’re in that stair step right now now and the fact that it’s remained above 2000 it’s spiked as high as 2150 that’s going to get the public

Interested again and that should lead to uh more General buying as you put it yeah like one question I think I discussed that with Lio tiger at the New Orleans conference I think one question was what would get the generalists interested again and I think you sort of

Answered that I was hoping personally it would be the alltime headlines the all-time high headlines um Lobo back then mentioned maybe $50 a day move in Gold we’ve seen that it hasn’t really brought back the the generalists that had they didn’t care I don’t think so

Much and this again is conject I don’t think it’s that they didn’t care it’s that they said you know I’ve seen that before and it and it didn’t last and so it’s the fact that historically speaking the big price moves have been followed by rapid declines and so when you look

At the first big large price move it moved for multiple years up to to 1900 I mean we’re talking a 10 12 year period once it got there it broke down and then for a year and a half to two years I believe it traded between 1,800 on the

High and about, 1550 on the low and it kind of bounced back and forth and then it broke through that that break took it to the lows uh this was February 2015 of 1020 and I remember that month and that date because that’s when uh George sor

Started buying a lot of it and I said that’s telling me maybe it’s time to get back in that is the low interesting that’s a interesting side note there uh fantastic um Gary I’m trying to make the segue to Silver and I think the best way

To do that is via the gold silver ratio okay we need to talk about that because uh it’s still very very high I think we’re trading around 85 I’m not uh maybe 85 86 gold to silver or silver to gold um it’s it’s still extremely high and silver seemingly has decoupled from from

The gold price usually usually they go up in tandem they go down in tandem of course silver usually more violently um but that chart has to couble Let’s jump into that let’s let’s discuss that Gary yeah what we’re looking at is just a silver chart and to the the point that I

Want to illustrate is where as we’ve seen gold on a slow and methodical climb when it would hit a new high it would come down but it would trade to a higher low although we’re seeing that in silver one thing that we have all of us have noticed that that follow silver is

That silver made a high of about $50 when gold traded to above 1900 but since then on all these subsequent new price highs in Gold we didn’t get that follow through in silver and so silver ceiling has been $30 rather than $50 and so that’s a a

Question that has been a quandry it’s been a difficult um question to to explain rationally volume is good but it still seems as though silver is range bound there’s a ceiling right now shortterm at $26 so when gold again when gold spiked up because these are occurring at the

Same dates this is uh if we look at it um this is October the low so I call it the October rally this is the spike that we saw uh when gold hit 2150 and the high that we got in silver was 6 so we got a new all-time high in

Gold intraday wasn’t on a closing basis we also the the day before that got a new all-time closing price that’s what’s important to me uh 20093 but when you look at Silver it didn’t really have that kind of momentum that we saw in Gold that’s what tells me

That when we want to look at the the gold and silver ratio I think that gold is going to overtake the performance although on any given day um you can have silver move up strategically and aggressively but this the same thing occurs when it comes down

But the key is is the the levels are different and so as many analysts have said and we’ve all noted there’s been a decoupling between the tandem moves in gold and silver silver is much more sensitive to us equities to Global equities because of its high level of

Usage in industry and Technology gold most recently has been most sensitive as a safe haven asset we saw decline last year going to a couple of lows based on the fact that there was over optimism with the Federal Reserve and the data wasn’t supporting it and comments by fed officials weren’t but ultimately

I believe that it will it will widen in favor of gold it seems like Silver’s become Dr Silver a little bit as well like I don’t want to name it that just yet but uh it seems like it’s it’s also caught in the recession fears and uh the recession

Seemingly is prized in into silver hence the decoupling would you agree with that statement I think that’s an excellent point excellent point because if a recession is on the horizon and whether it you know there’s a a great expectation of a soft Landing there are those out there that are

Saying that’s not going to be the case but silver is very sensitive to how economies are doing and how industry is doing because it’s so tied to Industrial usage no AB absolutely sorry here I was just checking my notes here just to make sure I got everything covered here on

The silver side as well cuz um it is an interesting Market because the usage in solar and EVS is just exploding especially solar phot ofal takes so I I’m calling it the new do let’s call it Dr Silver might as well trade market right now let’s start tshirt good to me

Yeah you you can buy probably in the store down below in a we we’ll get that going as a good YouTuber we gotta have a merch store so um trying to think Gary I think we covered gold silver extensively do do you see any Black Swan events that could

Completely derail your your forecast is there anything that I wouldn’t say gives you sleepless nights but uh maybe keeps you up a minute longer than you want to there there are a couple of things that that uh make it Troublesome to fall asleep at night and they are they’re

Black Swan events but we’re all aware of the possibility and and that is that the tensions now in the Middle East move from being Regional to having a lot of countries involved involved and that being uh an issue with me because that would that would take gold and to spiral

Higher and maintain that level until that was resolved but it’s the amount of geopolitical tensions in this world that keep me up at night um and the problem that I have is that I don’t see any end games any real solutions uh if you take uh Russia and the Ukraine they’re

Their goals are couldn’t be more polarized Russia is committed to taking back the country that they believe was theirs and was at some point during the Russian Empire true Ukraine is committed committed to keeping their independence because they are Ukraine and they are ukrainians and they’re not going to give

An inch to that so where’s the room for compromise when you have political not political but polarized opposites in terms of their endgame and when you have that kind of a fracture it’s very difficult to know what will happen without a a a really catastrophic event

As far as the Middle East goes you have a lot of groups that from what we read in the news are proxy groups of Iran they’re being supplied by Iran funded by Iran and weapons are being given to them by Iran and so they have been hitting

Targets in the South China Sea and this is specifically in in in Yemen there’s also a radical group in Lebanon and Syria and I think that that could be the Black Swan event which I I pray doesn’t happen which is more involvement globally by a lot of countries creating a coalition and that

Would be that would be catastrophic I think we can all agree on that that nobody wants spiraling out of control because Iran two degrees backed by China because if we start hitting oil refineries in Iran China will get involved as well because they’re getting some of their oil supplies out of Iran

So it’s when it spirals completely out of control but as you said like what what are the solutions none of the parties is willing to back down so and that that’s that’s the trouble I have with uh it’s what where’s the endgame even if the two sides are extremely exceedingly rational

And want to find a peaceful solution their concept of what would be what would it what it would necessitate is North Pole and South Pole and how do you meet in the middle when there is no middle ground that either side would be happy with and it’s a lack

Of endgame that scares me or a a plan of compromise absolutely Gary we got to end on a positive note I think we got to reiterate your gold price target for the for this year um and what was that number Gary we got to leave on a

Positive note here yeah oh absolutely I think that gold uh is going to go to a new all-time price high on a closing basis right now the the the Bell to beat is uh 293 what I believe will happen at some point this year is not only will it move back above

2100 on a closing basis but then form a base trade sideways or at a higher ground but actually I’m looking for the pivot when 2100 is the new 2000 meaning there is a strong support for that and when you consider where where gold has come from even recently at the 1800s

We’ve seen a tremendous move and I think that there in terms of investment opportunities is incredible investment opportunities in the precious metals this year fantastic Gary fantastic closing note couldn’t have said it any better it was great to leave on a positive note here really appreciate

Your time where can we find more of your work Gary certainly the gold forecast.com that’s our website we have a YouTube channel which has uh over 3,000 videos we’ve been posting there since 2009 every single daily video that I’ve done has been posted of course the live ones are for premium subscribers

But they get put onto the site I believe the delay time is roughly a two or three weeks and lastly on Twitter at Gary s Wagner fantastic Gary wonderful conversation as always it’s great to see you uh let’s we’re not going to have seven months pass again before we chat

Again so we’ll bring you back sooner for sure thank you so much for your time Gary much appre Mahal and uh we’ll we’ll chat very very soon and uh everybody else thank you so much for tuning in truly appreciate everybody’s time and patience and interest in our Channel

Thanks for getting educated I think it helps everybody become a better investor make sure to hit that subscribe button hit that like button leave a comment do you agree with Gary’s gold price Target do you think it’s going higher do you think it’s going lower let

Us know how are you playing the gold market right now and what’s your Black Swan event prediction let’s not be too GM in the comments but uh let’s be realistic as well thank you so much for tuning in we’d love to hear from you we’ll be back with lots more and some of

You I’ll see in Vancouver this week thank you so much