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Bitcoin has officially crossed the chasm no longer a boy but maybe not yet a man that’s right we’re here to talk about Bitcoin going through puberty and the real question is was the ETF a sell the news event and more to the point we’re going to talk about how I’m positioning

Around the play in altcoins which is most obviously the next play and how I’m going to be investing throughout q1 over the next few months here to extract the max value from the markets now of course it’s worth noting that at this point when you’re looking at gambling on

Altcoins the truth is that there’s a probability that stuff goes up there’s a probability that stuff goes down you could lose literally every penny that you put into an altcoin and you could also make a bundle of gains this is the crypto casino that we all know and love

But if you’re going to swim into the deep end of the pool you need to be aware of the risk you’re taking just like always but because there are tens of thousands of new subscribers on this channel in just the last month we’re going to be slowing things down a bit

And making sure that the old Elio trades content treadmill doesn’t run too fast for the new viewers so if you appreciate that destroy that like button and let’s jump in first and foremost let’s talk about it because if you recall on my last video I was predicting that things

Would pump a bit after the ETF in fact I was open to the possibility of them pumping a lot and that’s because I just didn’t buy that everyone was right about this being a sell the news event you see the whole timeline everyone and their Grandma was bearish and throughout all

Of 2023 everyone and their Grandma was bearish and yet I remained and made a ton of money so I remained bullish but the question is logically is this what we’re seeing here bullish you see here we went from this you know 46 47k range we popped up to literally 49,000 it

Doesn’t show it on this chart but we Wicked up to 49,000 just just call it 50,000 literally please could everyone out there just say we went to 50,000 okay just just say it say it in the mirror say it enough times that it’s true okay not

484941080 sell off here it was just boom up and right back down and then we hung around here and just collapsed and so the question is is this the sell the news event is this the pain that we were promised and I say this with 100% enthusiasm and sincerity but the truth

Is I don’t think that this was exactly the sell the news event and it wasn’t this bullish explosion no this was something else and I feel like it had something to do with the start stop routine we got with the fake ETF approval but again that’s for another

Day the question is now what is about to happen to the markets and I want to be clear that I do see upside in the short term and I’ll outline the three outcomes that I see possible for the market and I’m going to give you a percentage likelihood that each happens and I’m

Going to tell you where I’m putting my personal money and how I’m playing this at the end so first of all let’s just talk about this Bitcoin fur and greed index plummets plummets to neutral plummets to neutral I always think that this is funny plummets to neutral that’s

Yeah wow it’s it’s neutral amazing as you can see see here we’re no longer excessively greedy that’s always a good thing CU usually when there’s less greed the chance of the price going up and being contrarian to the upside is better now of course we know that leading into

The ETF everyone got euphorically bullish and that was true a lot of people were very excited about this but then there was a lot of people that were saying hey this is going to be a sell the news and one of the things we have to talk about here is the balance

Between the people who were now able to redeem their Bitcoin from gbdc which was a Bitcoin trap it was all this Bitcoin locked in great scales Bitcoin trust and the people who are now newly buying into the Bitcoin ETFs through Black Rock and the like now what you’ll see is tons of

Articles talking about how there was a sell the news and all these billions dumped but when you actually break down the numbers what you see is that there’s a lot of new money coming in to these ETFs with over $655 million in inflows net inflows to be precise and as you can

See there were some net outflows here for grayscale but a company bitwise actually topped the list here with over $200 million in inflows so was it to sell the news I mean did people literally just dump and move out no in fact there were a ton of net new buyers

That came in from traditional Finance into the Bitcoin world and that is not something to turn your nose up at in fact I think it’s a very strong fact that things are maturing that said it’s worth noting that Crown who’s actually had some of the absolute best calls he

Called the 16k Bitcoin bottom he literally bottom ticked this whole Bitcoin run and he’s pretty much called a short-term top here in Bitcoin saying that effectively for the next 2.5 to 5 months we should expect some form of consolidation now if you look here on the chart that he actually showed what

You’ll see here is that the last few times that he’s had a similar read he’s shown that we had effectively 84 days of sideways and then we had a dump this was of course in the 22 bare market and again in 22 another 84 days exactly and

Then a dump here you have effectively two chunks of the 84 days a little more with 196 days and then we had a pump cuz we’re in a bull market again the point is that the price normally doesn’t explode upwards after this corresponding set of indicators now what we hope

Happens of course what we hope happens is another set of this where we get some boring and sideways and then we explode upwards but we do have to accept that this ETF hypium and excitement and anticipation was driving a lot of that price upwards now we do have the having

Coming up and that is typically very good for Bitcoin as well as when fomo does start kicking in again there are trillions of dollars of buyers who can now come in and buy in my view the ETF listing was inarguably a success although we didn’t get our bags lifted

To Valhalla instantaneously as we had maybe hoped the truth is that it doesn’t mean that hope is dead and that’s because traditional Finance is now introducing stimulus for the other most important asset in the entire crypto space especially the one that pertains to the altcoins just listen here to this

Clip of Larry think of Black Rock talking not just about Bitcoin and the ETF which was the vanilla way that he was addressing the Boomer investing public up to this this point will Feast your ears on Larry thinkink the crypto degenerate listen to this these are just start stepping stones towards

Tokenization and I I really do believe this is where we’re going to be going we have the technology to tokenize today if you want to talk about think about this if you had a tokenized security and you have a tokenized identity you Andrew the moment you buy or sell an instrument it

Is known it’s on a general ledger that is all created together um you want to talk about issues around money laundry and all that this eliminates all corruption by having a tokenized system as intern here says it sounds like Larry thinkink got racked with his absolute boys last week had an epiphany about

Crypto and is now fully entering the crypto Rabbit Hole so why am I bringing all this up well it is of course because Black Rock has submitted their ethereum ETF filing and where will all of this tokenization be happening well my friends it will most likely be happening

On in and around ethereum whether it’s layer 2os ethereum rollups or literally on ethereum itself we know that eth is primed for institutional adoption next after Bitcoin and this is starting to really lay the foundation for eth going through the same bullish trajectory that we just saw Bitcoin go through and the

Thing about ethereum is that it is the harbinger of gains for altcoins it’s also the harbinger of life in the nft ecosystem so as ethereum starts to outperform so to does a lot of the market and ethereum going absolutely buck wild with gains could mean incredible things for altcoins as anom

Said Larry fin G to show Bitcoin and ethereum non-stop from the rooftops to10 trillion worth of Boomer funds but you’re scared of a little gbtc Redemption selling and that’s one of the key things here is that the Redemption out of grayscale Bitcoin trust is temporary once that evens out and people

Get out of grayscale into a cheaper product because grayscale fees are higher again they’re in debt they need to raise some money so they’re going to keep keep their fees High to get some money out of this product but once enough people sell and move on to a

Different product or just leave it there and forget about it eventually this grayscale Redemption selling will stop and this temporary selling pressure will turn into long-term most likely buying pressure and remember when we said that the advertising campaigns had not yet begun it’s because they literally haven’t check this out Black Rock has

Just announced their very own Boomer Centric Bitcoin ETF ad and listen to this digital asset adoption has significantly accelerated over the last decade all right I’m not even going to play it it’s so boring but you can just imagine grandpa and grandma and your dad who’s probably a little older like my

Dad and everybody else just sitting there you know with their hearing aids in going you know what this Bitcoin that this nice young gentleman is talking about it sounds really promising and those are the moments those are those magic moments that black rock is blessing us with and we need to all be

Grateful exist here in 2024 as the wolf says there’s a lot of talk about where we are in the cycle we are here highlighted in that little circle just in case you were wondering that’s where we are we’re right there we’re right there there’s literally no need to ask

Any questions now okay in fact questions are illegal no more questions now what you see behind me is the eth Bitcoin chart and what you can see here is that over the last week we’ve had the biggest reversion of this destructive chart we can see that eth BTC has just been

Struggling throughout this entire bare market and had this nice prop up which means that eth is performing well against Bitcoin eth is performing better than Bitcoin but this started literally with the ETF announcement so while the ETF may have given us a temporary top here in Bitcoin and we should talk a

Little bit about how far down Bitcoin might go throughout this period of boring cuz boring could mean sideways boring could mean sideways and down which would be sad but I’ll give you my three outcomes here remember I’m giving you three dependent paths at the end of

This video and we’re going to talk about the coins that I’m looking at that are going to outperform or continue to outperform now once again Plan B Bitcoin is on track as you can see here with the little colored dots it’s still in this Blue Zone once we turn red things get

Absolutely spicy Picante you’re going to need some milk okay also a little warning that now that we have trafi buying our Bitcoin bags things might become more correlated more correlated to traditional markets so understand that these things will be having some bearing on how Bitcoin might play out US

Dollar Index real yield Tech stock and gold I really like Ted Talks macro check them out again here’s this chart this was the S&P 500 literally almost peaking at alltime highs now is this a double top or is this a cup and handle and is going to break through and create some

Nice price Discovery to the upside I mean it looks bullish it looks like it wants to go up we see NASDAQ literally already at all-time highs never been higher than it has been over the last few weeks here in NASDAQ land as you can see the prior all-time high was right

Here and we can see we’re nice and above it right here and then finally we have Bitcoin dominance this Bitcoin dominance shows Bitcoin versus all the other coins we can see that it was on this uptrend literally throughout the entirety of 2023 it was just charging up here and a

Lot of people use this as a reason not to buy altcoins now people who talk about Bitcoin dominant as a reason not to buy altcoins maybe they’re living in a different era of cryptocurrency but they certainly aren’t following what’s actually happening cuz if you’re in any

Kind of decent altcoin I know tons of coins that have gone up 5x many coins have gone up 10x so if you’re sitting in Old Boomer Bitcoin thinking when Bitcoin dominance goes up that there’s no reason to buy altcoins then you’re literally just not playing the modern game of

Cryptocurrency because that’s not how the market works the goodcoins pump way harder than Bitcoin when Bitcoin pumps and pretty much if you know your way around all coins you will make not just a little more money but astronomically more money again if you’re good most people are not good most people suck if

You’re new to crypto and you expect to be instantly good you’re probably going to suck cuz that expectation will leave you with way too much huus to actually learn the game it’s worth noting again if you’re new to crypto most people make all their money on the second and third

Cycle meaning after they’ve been here for 4 years or even up to 8 years is when you make your real big payday so when you hear about people making tens of millions of dollars usually that’s not their first rodeo usually by the point they’re actually set up to do that

They have some real time and skin in the game they’ve got the Battle Scars they’ve gone through bare markets they know when things are overheated they know when things are undervalued and hopefully this content can make you better prepared but remember there’s nothing more powerful than timing and understanding the Cycles themselves so

Knowing here that Eric balunis who was the one who walked us through the ETF process for Bitcoin well he’s back and he says he expects a 70% chance of a ethereum spot ETF being approved in May again I’m not going to pull my teeth out every time there’s ethereum ETF news but

Just understand that the anticipation and speculation around this will lead to some positive price action for ethereum or at least it really should and as ethereum tends to get more bullish well it’s good for altcoins another thing that’s amazing for altcoins is when Bitcoin goes on a nice run and then

Settles down at a lower price point the money gets a little bored waiting around in Bitcoin and starts flushing into the altcoins so rounding out this whole Market cycle the point that I’m trying to get across to you is that even though Bitcoin coin did not create this

Explosive uptrend after the ETF I believe that the dump has been fairly muted I mean we were at the 42k range in the days leading up to the ETF approval the real question is what happens now and I believe that the altcoins have a real opportunity over the next few weeks

To maybe one month or so to have a real party now I’m going to give you my percent likelihood of this happening at the end and the three pads remember I’m going to give that to you but in this world where ethereum is catching its Newfound love and there is potential for

A real alt season here I’m going to introduce a theory now if you remember we’ve been following the work of Arthur Hayes on this channel he’s done amazing macro work over the last few weeks in fact Hay’s research has been fundamental to understanding liquidity flow throughout 2023 and he’s put out

Effectively this article called signpost where he argues that we will have another Black Swan effectively in March when the bank term funding program runs dry and he believes that the money currently being used to fuel our economy will also be near its end he shows this by showing the decline in the reverse

Repo facility again you don’t need to understand this just know that effectively he believes that there will be a big risk-off moment here in the beginning of March until then he argues that we’re in a no trade zone now I personally feel somewhat similar in that

I’m not making big new moves here at the end of January I’m just riding a lot of my positions that are still making good gains I still think altcoins could have a nice little season here towards the end of January and into February but because I’ve been so well positioned in

The leadup to this alt season I’m just essentially not doing too much but I do believe that there’s potential for the market to come down and correct here at some point in q1 and when that happens I believe that’ll be the big buy before Bull Run moment where Bitcoin and crypto

Will once again get a little freaky and you’ll have a chance to buy some discount coins now in short Crown is arguing that we could work our way down to this 32k support towards the middle of the year now in my opinion this would be one of the most bear outcomes but

People would start getting pretty freaked out by this point and there very well might be some Panic selling this would definitely create some massive massive confusion in the alts me personally I’m looking at this Bitcoin weekly chart it doesn’t look that bad to me again I’m not an expert chartist but

It really doesn’t look like this is all that bad especially if you ignore this red Wick again like I said this isn’t a TA Channel but things aren’t looking all that dramatically bad to me now for the fun part I’m going to tell you my trading strategy and how I’m going to be

Positioning over the next month or so and what I see happening here in January again this is the big money part so if you’re excited for it go ahead sty that like button this is the part you’ve been waiting for where I talk about the coins

I will also say that there’s a big announcement coming for superverse so if you haven’t yet go right now to superverse Dow at Super and add this notification button follow with notifications on you’re going to want this Bell button on now before we get into the coins I’m going to tell you

About our new sponsor on the channel and boys this this a bigan today I’m proud to announce that I am officially partnering up with none other than coinbase that’s right guys I am an official coinbase YouTube Partner this is the first publicly listed crypto company in the world it’s where a lot of

Us bought our first crypto coins obviously the Bitcoin ETF is incredible for the industry but it’s super important that we still promote the actual ownership of crypto itself this is the freedom machine this is the opportunity to truly participate in the Brave New World of crypto and now that

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We’re looking at in ethereum season the question is what might happen now eth itself should keep pumping here along with this narrative again it all depends on whether Bitcoin decides to take a massive dump olola or just be boring and sideways if Bitcoin just goes sideways

Then I believe ethereum and a bunch of altcoins are going to have an amazing next month or so that they will go absolutely rocket mode and there could be some serious gains 2x 5x 10x out of Select altcoins now if ethereum comes down and tickles this $2,400 range

Michig again right now it’s sitting at you know 2525 if it tickles that 2 2400 range that’s a screaming buy but if not ethereum should do well over the coming months due to the ETF anticipation when we look at alt seasons of the past it’s really important that you understand and

You look here that when Bitcoin topped it was the beginning of November in 2021 whereas you look at a coin like sandbox right sandbox was one of the biggest gainers late in the cycle because of metaverse mania and you could see that it topped it didn’t top until the end of

November a full month later if you would have sold here at the top of Bitcoin you would have sold sandbox at two bucks whereas then between that time and the actual top of the market sandbox went another 4X up to $8 and if you see the market cap change on Sandbox it went

From $2 billion market cap up to literally almost a 7 billion or a 6.5 billion doll market cap the point here is that altcoins can go absolutely parabolic even after Bitcoin and ethereum start to settle down more to the point that’s exactly when they go parabolic so once you get this move out

Of Bitcoin it settles down ethereum makes its move now we have this wealth effect spreading throughout crypto now the downside of this is that after these moves play out if Bitcoin doesn’t have any more steam left in it that’s when we might see a major correction in the

Markets so understand while I am excited about the potential for altcoins running here there’s a reality that at some point in q1 we will probably see a major major correction in the altcoins and if you’re not positioned at all right now in my opinion that is your time to buy

But more on that again at the end again here’s another great example Gala games you see here that in the middle of November remember this is literally a week or two after Bitcoin had already topped G is sitting here at under 10 cents and it shoots up here to almost 72

Cents here the market cap change Galla went from 700 million up to literally almost 5.5 billion dollar in market cap and that happened within the space of just a few days but it didn’t fully top here until the end of the month almost a month after Bitcoin topped and you can

See here Celestia which we brought to you guys at about $4 is just about to hit $20 and I told you guys that if Bitcoin ETF went well and it got accepted that these strong coins in the market would continue to be strong remember these are like prize Fighters

When they’re 55 and0 you don’t expect them to get knocked out and coins like celesa injective say and the like all coins that we’ve been talking to you about since much lower price points here on this channel well they’ve been performing super hard check this out crypto dog showing injective forming a

Nice little move up against its top level resistance looking quite bullish as you can see here injective just doing doing very well doing injective things here very close to its all-time high and just forming this nice little tight range and you can see it just wants to

Win injective just wants to win right now so if this Market continues as I expect yeah injective should keep floating up here now coming up on about a 5x since we brought it to you on this cycle of course we covered injective again at 70 cents last cycle it’s almost

Impossible to imagine how much gains have come since we first covered injective back in 2020 say not much else to say here up 177% on the day we can see here again it’s damn near all-time highs it’s really oh yeah did it break out to alltime highs it’s just looking

Absolutely beastly 86 cents its alltime high was 87 cents uh it’s really close to its all-time high if it’s not on it again the strong coins will remain strong and this party can really continue into the next month or so if we don’t get a major dump on bitcoin suie

The new high performance blockchain that everyone is talking about as you can see here it’s made a nice cup from its original dump back in uh I guess May of 2023 um the time to buy it would have been October but regardless we can see here it is showing a tremendous amount

Of strength as we’re talking about the layer one trade and this one is quite interesting it just got brought to my attention Neutron Neutron is a settlement layer on Celestia so we should see as Celestia goes on nice little uh price movements upwards we should see Neutron also do some nice

Things as you can see here it’s done really well it’s pretty much an up only chart as well again here at uh 393 million whereas Celestia is at 3 billion so you can see it’s about 1/10th the size again as Celestia pumps you’d expect Neutron to do some good things

Cuz it’s built to interact with Celestia and finally if you don’t have rabby wallet go and install it and go make a bunch of transactions connect a bunch of wallets I use Rabbi I love rabie it’s probably the best wallet out there and they are clearly about to drop a token

Here so I don’t know what the snapshot criteria is I don’t know if they already did it but usually these wallet ones are pretty easy you connect your wallet you sign up a few accounts and you can end up with some coins I don’t know if you

Can still do it but you might as well check out rabby wallet here rabbi. and just get their browser extension can’t hurt to try to get some free airdrop coins okay so now is the moment of truth let’s talk about the three dependent paths here for crypto first path is that

This is where we are and you know anom who’s very bullish just thinks we’re going up up and Away now we might just be going up up and away to quote him we are where the blue arrow is not the red arrow a lot of people think we’re at the

Red arrow here because we’re repeating 2019 and anom says no we’re at the blue arrow so if we’re at this blue arrow here that means that we are just going to Skyrocket to the moon no sell the news that was a fake out just up only literally just sell everything mortgage

Your house mortgage your wife mortgage your kids all right get get loans against your children and and buy Bitcoin and buy just don’t even care about the price because this is going so high you don’t need to worry about price price price is just a thing all right

Price is just a number as they say if we’re at the blue arrow nothing nothing matters literally nothing matters but what if we are not at the blue arrow what if we are more at this red arrow possibility two is that we’re at the red arrow and we’ll see some real negative

Price action here before the having and we get the full cycle kicking in now if that’s the case the biggest opportunity would be to buy during that monstrous dip I’m a bull I’m a giga and I believe that that dip would be a massive gift this is sort of where Eric Crown is

Arguing we’re going to head to the low3s here anything in those mid-30s or low3s would probably be astronomically good prices and just whatever the prices are when Bitcoin dips usually if Bitcoin Falls 10% altcoins will fall 20 or 30% so just know altcoins could go on absolutely massive parabolic nukes if

Bitcoin does this and that would be the chance to load up on the strong altcoins remember if an altcoin was super strong early in the cycle and then Bitcoin nukes and the altcoin nukes well when Bitcoin comes back probably that altcoin is going to come back cuz whatever was

Working for it and going right for it will probably continue to go right so situation one is we explode to Valhalla no stops Bitcoin up only and probably the entire Market would send so hard altcoins going 10 100x like crazy that’s great you don’t even need me in that

Case you could just throw money at the market blindfolded like a baboon and probably make so much money that you just go ahead you send your shitcoin portfolio to Mena they would Crown you a genius 3,000 IQ that’s what’s going to happen if we’re at the blue arrow that’s

Situation one situation two is we get this massive slow grinding nuke down and something happens in q1 where we actually get a massive downward move in Bitcoin the excitement just leaves the room and we get these lower prices but still above 32k that would be a massive buying opportunity and now the third

Option which I think is honestly my base case is that we chop around without much excitement to either Direction with Bitcoin going kind of sideways for a while and that could mean some dips down below 40 some pops above 43 but I don’t see it really breaking out of this range

For the next little bit in fact my base case is that we chop around and go sideways for quite a while while ethereum does its thing makes some pushes up and I think altcoins could look really really nice over that period of time but does that mean that I’m

Going to ape in and buy a bunch of altcoins well guys I’ve been aping and buying altcoins like a psychopath for the last last 3 to 6 months so no I’m not going to be adding a ton of positions I’m just going to be kind of letting things ride if anything gets

Crazy to the point where I’m sitting on an astronomical amount of gains I might take a little profits and think hey look this is overcooked I’ll let you know if I do that but for right now I’m just hands off the controller letting my positions ride in the market and I might

Get stung by it if Bitcoin takes a big dumb Bola but honestly if it gets really bad I’ll probably just wire in some more money and buy some coins because honestly I believe 2024 is still setting up to be an astronomically good year for

Crypto even if we get a quarter or so of less interesting price action for Bitcoin so to be clear and recap again situation one is that Bitcoin Rockets again nobody has to worry about a thing unless of course you don’t have any coins situation two is that Bitcoin

Slowly grinds down and has a kind of risk-off moment and goes back and explores that lower side of the range around the low3s that would to me be a massive screaming buy and situation three is that Bitcoin goes sideways and with all this new liquidity in the market and Bitcoin no longer stealing

The show I think we might see some real action for altcoins where am I looking I’m looking in the obvious places where the strength has already been and then once those coins get a little overcooked it would make sense that there would be some catch-up trades coins that haven’t

Quite gone on this run catching up and making some gains but again we’ll be doing a lot more content throughout this time so I don’t need to build Ram in a day here this is my overall outlook for the market again if you enjoyed these

Videos and you got some value out of it this is how I think people will make the most money in q one which is of course hanging on to your positions in altcoins and not getting scared I don’t think the Bitcoin sell the news event is truly

Accurate because I do think that Bitcoin is holding on to most of its speculative gains from this ETF runup and altcoins are set to have a pretty good month or maybe a little more but just to be clear if altcoins go on a big move there’s no

New Catalyst for Bitcoin and things get real frothy here towards the end of January and the beginning of February it very well might be time to take a little profits or at least prepare yourself emotionally for a reset of the market that’s what I could see happening with

Maybe a low coming in somewhere in March again that is literally just throwing darts at the dart board and maybe just maybe it rhymes with the Rona dump of 2020 but again I’ve seen stranger things in cryptoland as always if you enjoyed this smash that like button make sure to

Subscribe with the Bell notification on as we’re going to be doing some deep dives into coins if I’m right and we start seeing some heat here in altcoins well the tickers are going to start flying and you’re going to want to be the first one to hear about these videos

As always if you enjoyed this make sure to check out this video it is an absolute Bible on how I’m investing in 2024 and the coins to watch thanks for tuning in and I’ll see you very soon on the next episode