DogeCoin, A Realistic Price Breakdown of DOGE (Yes Really)

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Dogecoin (DOGE) was created as a lighthearted alternative to traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in 2013. The name and Shiba Inu logo are based on a meme. Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed to be scarce, Dogecoin is intentionally abundant — with 10,000 new coins mined every minute and no maximum supply.

For most of its existence, Dogecoin was generally considered to be an amusing “memecoin” beloved by its community — but with relatively little value. That changed in 2021: as of April, Dogecoin became one of the ten biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap — with a total value that has topped $50 billion.

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Hey everybody welcome back in today’s video we’re going to be looking at Dogecoin now I want to prefix this video and say I have always regarded Dogecoin with an extreme level of skepticism and doubt and not just Dogecoin all meme coins I’ve always considered them extremely dubious Investments however as

The years have gone by and Dogecoin has continued to put in higher highs and rally and continued to stay at higher lows with each cycle I have to ask myself do I have to re-evaluate my opinion of Dogecoin and potentially other meme coins as they continue to

Outperform a lot of other altcoins in the market over the long term and my rational brain which is useless in a crypto space because nothing in crypto is rational but in my brain I’m thinking a coin made on off the back of a joke orientated around a dog doesn’t seem

Seem like it should have any real intrinsic value and doesn’t feel like it should continue to rally and grow per cycle but and this is what kind of I always come back to if you’re making money from an asset whether that’s by luck or skill or a bit of both why

Should I knock that asset why should I disregard the validity of your gains because it came from a meme coin you still made huge amounts of money from that if you did and if you made any money from it that’s still a net win so today I’m going to try and re-evaluate

My opinion of at least Dogecoin and take a more technical look at it and I will say it was very difficult to find um a lot of similarities with Dogecoin just because I think it’s also a meme coin and there’s not a lot of stuff that you

Can kind of foresee when it comes to meme coins now we do see right off the bat that it does actually rally quite a lot once it’s after the Haring and during the Bull Run year we see Dogecoin usually gets a year of brilliant price movements and if we take a look look

Quickly after its first harving Dogecoin rallied 10,000% and after its second harving Dogecoin rallied even further to 30,000. you know a 300X of your money is absurd and for me to scoff at that or laugh at that in any kind of way just shows a level of ignorance to be honest

With you and you know what again that’s why I’m making this video you should always try and understand these things instead of just disregard them so getting straight into it we can see I have these Fibonacci levels drawn out before each half in for Dogecoin and I

Have a few circles here that correlate to each other each post Haring year and we can see that these basically represent the same time frame so we have red a pale white and a purple and the red represents a sort of first low that we put in from our second lowest Peak

After our all-time high so excuse me and this should actually be here I don’t know why it was there anyway so we have our all-time high for Dogecoin and then the peak below that the last the rally that comes afterwards that’s where we draw our Fibonacci from we see our Peak

And then our rally that we draw it from and then again our Peak and then our rally that we draw it from and this red basically represents the low that we put in for Dogecoin until we get a bounce and then we have another high that we

See now it doesn’t always have to turn out to be one high sometimes there can be multiple like we see in this next preh Haring sort of 2020 preh harving but it always does come down to a lower low and this is the alltime or the cycle

Low excuse me for Dogecoin every single time and we’re going to look at dates on how they compare but I do just want to get out of the way what they all are quickly so that you know and then this last one the purple is the recovery

Rally from the all-time high and one thing I would like to point out very quickly just before I forget is that from the all-time high down to the all-time low or that cycle low is usually a year and a half out and then from our second High to our alltime low

Is about a year out give or take and then that was our first cycle if we then go alltime high for our second cycle to low we can see it’s about 413 days so again a good bit over a year a year and a couple of months and then

From our first low to our all-time low our cycle low we’re about under a year so we can see that this cycle this term for Dogecoin was more condensed than the first if we take a look at what we saw this cycle and this will be useful in comparing what could potentially come

Just to see which cycle has played out most like the current one we see from our all-time high Dogecoin has gone just over a year down to its cycle low so we’re looking a bit similar to this guy where it was about I think it was actually same amount of time give will

Take I think I overshot it here a little bit but basically same time frame from here to here down from this high to this low and if we take a look at our first dip which you could argue actually is here I’ll do both we see just under a

Year so let me just move that as well excuse me so yeah we see about a year just under from here to here and we see just over a year from here to here which again kind of interesting so we’re looking like we’re more like this cycle so again some differentials some

Similarities some things that aren’t similar if we take a look at what happened here again we can see a sudden Spike up from our all-time low again a sudden Spike up in our second Haring year or preh Haring Year sorry uh another Spike up from our all-time

Low and then what was different about this year was that it was it took much longer for us to get the spike up however this bar run that we’ve been currently going through has been considered one of the longest crypto has ever seen and that’s not just been for

Dogecoin like we’re seeing here it’s also been for ethereum Bitcoin and others another thing we often see immediately before the harving is some kind of a selloff we see it here with Dogecoin a rally up and a retracement and then we even have a sort of a second

One as the harving takes place and you could argue that this one here correlates to this guy and this first one here correlates to this first one here so again quite similar leading up to the harving and during the harving time if we take a look at what we’re

Seeing here we can see a move play out almost the exact same basically and if we go back and take a look at these first sell-offs that we see they are quite drastic they are serious sell-offs we have strong rallies up and then serious collapses down now this first

One sorry this first one on the second cycle I would argue was a bit oversold and again this was Co time so maybe without Co we would have only gone back to these levels or this level I there’s no way of ever knowing but what is currently playing

Out is Dogecoin has had a rally up and then a retracement and we’ve actually gone back to our bull market support band if you want to try and avoid this 2020 price movement as you think Co affected it we go back to this first one what happened Dogecoin rallied up and

Then came back to its bull market support band and then had another rally off the bull markets a couple weeks before the harving if we take a look at what Dogecoin is currently doing we can see that it’s actually had a rally up and then it’s collapsed back down onto

Its bull market support band now if Dogecoin breaks below this bull market support band we could probably safely say that it’s going to play out differently or not exactly the same which is you know what you should expect no cycle will ever play out the exact same however it looks eily similar

Eerily similar to what we’ve seen before we’ve sort of had an amalgamation of the first and second preh harving and harving years squished together but what I think will probably happen is Doge will have this sell off and we’ll probably trade along the bull market support band again like we saw in this

First cycle probably trade along this bull market support band land and whether we have this rally up or not to be honest with you I don’t think it really matters and I am in the camp that we probably won’t I think we’ll probably trade sideways and maybe even

Potentially down into this harving I think Bitcoin and ethereum have a couple of at least a week or so of bad performance ahead of them and these last few days have shown that with basically the whole crypto space being red and to be honest I think it’s been long over

Due because we’ve just had up and up and up for months now and you know we see Dogecoin had this and now it’s had a pullback so again just some interesting titbits to maybe incorporate into your trading strategy if you are planning on trading these moves or if you’re

Planning on putting some money during the harving I would warn you to reduce as much risk as possible and hedge both ways but you could potentially argue that um leading up to the harving Dogecoin will probably enter the harving at a similar price if we take a look at

What it did again this first cycle after its first drop back down it entered the harving at a higher price a much higher price but that was of course after a strong rally so if we see Doge start to Rally you might want to long but or you

Might just want to pick some up before this rally even though we do see afterwards that it does Trail back down and if in the second Haring we see after this first dump Dogecoin does trade much higher than the selloff so we You could argue you could make a very good point

That this selloff Dogecoin could enter the Haring close to its high here or somewhere in between but history would show that it’s probably not as low as where it is now however history does not promise or guarantee price performance in the future there’s no way of knowing

Basically final thing before we move to the BTC pair is how long Dogecoin does nothing after the harving and to be honest with you Dogecoin does nothing for a lot of its price in my opinion it kind of has one huge rally up one or two

Huge rallies up and then kind of does nothing or slowly Trends down and there’s you know huge spikes here and there it’s a mem coin it should have those huge spikes but basically does nothing anyway after the harving we see approximately 35 weeks or 250 245 days of nothing from Dogecoin until we

Suddenly pick up into our rally and if we go back and take a look here we can see again about 31 weeks 220 days so a pretty similar time frame of nothing before Dogecoin suddenly picks up and starts rallying like crazy and again seeing how to be honest with you

Dogecoin does play out pretty similarly each cycle and we’ve got a lot more data now compared to what we would have had here and what we’ve had here we’ve had two test runs and both have played pretty similar you can probably assume that for a long time after the harving

Dogecoin will do nothing where whether it slowly Trends downwards like it did here uh and holds a sort of support or whether it slowly Trends upwards like it did here um there’s a good chance that it it won’t make any drastic price movements compared to what we’ll get in

2025 until 2025 and we can see here it actually prices in just a little a little bit before 2025 if it’s going to play out I took the midpoint I took 33 so 35 31 33 weeks took the middle uh it could very well be longer could very

Well be shorter again that’s just a ballpark range um a lot of people are talking about a Q4 ball run at the end of this year I currently am indifferent I don’t know but taking a look at Dogecoin on its Bitcoin pair we can see

A bit more of a mess um not as bullish as it looks on its US dollar pair we can see that basically from its Inception those coin continued to trade downwards against Bitcoin for seven years basically until last Bull Run Dogecoin put in allmighty highs you know that

300X that crazy move and since then again it’s been trading down and I do always say that BTC is usually your best bet in bare market conditions and if we check how far it actually fell compared to bitcoin up to its last low Dogecoin is still putting in lower lows on its

Bitcoin pair which um is quite unusual I’ll swap to weekly here so we get a more precise look which is quite unusual for altcoins we’ve seen a lot of them now start to pick up and have this sort of secondary move this secondary rally that a lot of people

Talk about two years after the main Bull Run two years before the next main Bull Run Dogecoin hasn’t had that and it definitely hasn’t had it on its Bitcoin pair all we’ve seen here is downward moves basically and another thing that’s unusual about this cycle for Dogecoin on

Its Bitcoin pair is that leading up to the harving while it always does usually trade downwards to to some degree with that’s lower highs or just lower highs basically or more or less trading within a range Dogecoin has put in lower highs and lower lows all the way down to the

Haring and I have this range here of 32 weeks you know 225 days roughly we can see that’s where Dogecoin usually puts in a similar price from the Haring so if we move out move back 32 weeks 33 weeks we can see Dogecoin whatever price it

Usually was at during that week it also puts in that price during the Haring on its Bitcoin pair and again we saw that the last harving we saw that the first Haring this current harving is more interesting because if we zoom into where we are currently and we find our 33 weeks we

Find it here that puts us at 250 satoshis let’s say so let’s mark that really quickly 250 Satoshi Dogecoin would need to break out of the current downward Trend that it’s moving in for us to make that level and we can see it has made moves to the upside before on

It Bitcoin pair but for the majority of this time it’s been in in a downward Trend and also it’s been trading below its bull market support band and it seems to get continuously rejected from the bull market support band if we take a look at what’s happened

Previously during pre Haring sort of you know the 240 days before the harving what Dogecoin usually does on its Bitcoin pair is it trades around its bull market support band we can see in 2020 Dogecoin basically flatlined not flat line I mean these moves were still big during well they weren’t really

Actually during the time Dogecoin basically held a good Peg against Bitcoin for 2third of a year leading up to the harving compared to bitcoin if we go back to its first harving we can see a not so similar story we have pretty drastic moves of ups and downs but what

The key difference was was that Dogecoin spent a good while going down and then we had a strong rally up and then we kept going down and then we had a a retest of the bullmark support band blah blah blah so we sort of dipped in and

Out but the bull market support band does sort of hold a almost average here which shows that the volatility does sort of even out in terms of over time the bull market support band stabilized a bit from this point onwards and we saw that basically at 50 Satoshi was the

Fair value or the accurate price of Dogecoin during this time on its Bitcoin pair we could potentially see a move like this happen again with our current cycle and we can see we started below the bull market sport band if we take a look at where we currently are we we are

Of course well below the bull market sport band and we were below the bull market sport band for a while trading into it and then let me just check whereabouts we are now we are currently 13 weeks out if we go to our first harving and check where we broke above

What sort of a time frame it was we broke above here about 24 weeks out so again we’ve already spent much longer in this sort of below the bullmark support band however if we take from where we first went below to where we broke above

It was 23 weeks if we take a quick look and test that here you can see okay it’s going to be much longer actually um way longer 54 weeks basically a year so realistically Dogecoin is not looking good this cycle at all leading up to the

Haring just something to be aware of on his Bitcoin pair and my opinion for this it’s a hypothesis and in no way doesn’t mean it’s true uh it could very easily be disproven but I think that these two meme coins Bon and Pepe and all the other mean coins that already exist

Sheba enu is getting renewed interest with its bone coin it could be very well pulling money from Dogecoin as the go-to meme coin and a lot more you know retail Traders are putting into these newer flashier meme coins that they’ve seen do crazy moves over the last few months

Compared to Dogecoin that has just traded downward for not only the last year but the last three years basically and I mean why wouldn’t they if this new meme coin is going to make you X money why would you put it in Dogecoin it’s just something to think about I’m not

Saying Dogecoin is the worst choice or anything I mean potentially it could be now I don’t know to be honest with you I don’t spend much time looking at mcoins all I know is that compared to past performance Dogecoin has been doing poorly especially around this time frame

Another thing to point out is that after the harving on its Bitcoin pair Dogecoin historically trades downwards and then we have some sort of a rally this is pretty common in the altcoin space on their Bitcoin pairs BTC usually outperforms them for a little while and then altcoins usually do have some sort

Of a rally compared to bitcoin and then a lot of that value is taken back by Bitcoin uh this isn’t unusual and this often signifies the bull run this sort of rally up initially Dogecoin same last harving trades downwards Bull Run happens Dogecoin gets a lot of its value

Back trades downwards so what do I expect to sort of happen from this point on probably mainly downward movements we could see a move to the upside but the fact that Dogecoin has been below its bull market support band and has been rejected multiple times by its bull

Market support band You could argue that it’s putting up a fight and any day now it’s going to break above you could argue that it hasn’t been able to break above it bull market support band for well over a year now so why should it be

Able to do it during a time where the general crypto Market is actually showing quite weakness over this last week at least um and we can see you know Dogecoin has lost more value compared to bitcoin since this week open yesterday something to keep in mind um if you’re

Going forward and thinking of picking some Dogecoin up this could be a good time to buy like historically before the harving on the Bitcoin pair that’s been one of your best times to buy and after the harving is usually an even better time to buy but we can see this cycle is

Playing out differently if you were thinking of dollar cost averaging into Doge now would probably be a good time moving back to the US dollar pair very quickly you know we can see that post Haring Dogecoin usually does pretty good on this US dollar whether it decides to

Trend down or Trend up it’s it usually does well after the Haring so you might want to start dcing into Doge now if that was something you were already thinking of doing this be a good time frame sort of before the Haring it’s up

To you I can’t tell you what to do I think that about wraps it up for this video if you liked it leave a like if you didn’t leave a dislike consider subscribing we are really close to that 1,000 level which would mean a huge

Amount to me huge amount to me the fact that we’re 36 people away from 1,000 subscribers is crazy to me I can’t believe that that would ever happen and I am eternally grateful for you guys to tuning in it does a serious job for my ego you know

Uh even if I can’t tell anybody cuz I would like to remain uh pretty much Anonymous I know my face is on the thumbnail but that’s an old photo and uh I don’t look much like that anymore anyway thanks very much guys hope you have a good day take care and peace