Gold Could Surge 1500% Overnight? Hold Your Gold and Silver Until THIS Happens – Alasdair Macleod

Gold Could Surge 1500% Overnight? Hold Your Gold and Silver Until THIS Happens – Alasdair Macleod

In a recent analysis, Alasdair Macleod, the head of research at Gold Money and a respected voice in the financial community, suggests that the Federal Reserve’s upcoming approach to interest rates could significantly impact the short-term trajectory of gold prices.
Macleod highlights the possibility of a dip in gold prices below 2,000 dollars if the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious stance during its meeting. The immediate market response to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged was trimming earlier gains, with gold trading within a volatile range of 2030 to 2040 dollars.
Central to Macleod’s argument is the belief that gold’s fundamentals are shaped by central banks actively reducing exposure to paper currency, leading to increased gold accumulation. The World Gold Council supports this claim by reporting that global central banks, led by China, continued to increase their gold reserves in 2023, with a collective purchase of 1,037 tons.
Macleod further notes the illiquidity of the gold market and a shift in investor sentiment toward gold. He posits that these factors, combined with a potential decline in the value of the US dollar, could lead to a significant increase in gold prices. He concludes by expressing the belief that gold prices could experience a sharp upward movement by the end of the year, given these conditions.
Examining historical trends, when interest rates fall, gold and gold stocks tend to perform well. After reaching a two-week high of 2,055.89 dollars, gold prices have experienced a gradual climb in the past few months following a dip in October.
Adding to the discourse, a recent report by JPMorgan forecasts a continued surge in gold prices, projecting a move toward the 2300-dollar level in the concluding months of the year. Interestingly, this prediction aligns with Macleod’s short-term outlook, suggesting a minor dip before a sharp upward movement in gold prices by the end of the year.
Macleod challenges the prevailing belief that interest rates are on a downward trend, contending that bank credit constraints might result in higher interest rates. According to a recent survey, a net 50.8% of banks tightened credit terms for commercial and industrial loans to medium and large businesses in the last quarter of 2023, up from 46% in the previous survey. For small firms, 49.2% of banks reported stricter credit terms, compared to 46.7% in the prior survey.
Macleod also highlights the upcoming FOMC meeting, suggesting that the market anticipates a slightly softer tone, indicating an expectation of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve. Despite the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in its recent meeting, traders project 142 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while discussing the potential for rate cuts, mentioned that he doesn’t think it’s likely for the committee to reach a level of confidence by the March meeting. Analysts, such as Jigar Trivedi from Reliance Securities, believe that the Fed has kept the door open for interest rate cuts, providing support for gold.

📖 CHAPTERS:

00:00 Intro
00:54 Gold’s Pullback
1:29 Central Banks Gold Accumulation
2:14 Gold Price Projection
2:57 Gold Market Dynamics
7:02 Interest Rates
8:11 Banking System
12:01 Outro

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When you get interest rates obviously not going to come down as people expect when you get a bare Market developing in your normal sort of pharmaceuticals tech stocks uh Industrials and so on and so forth when that really starts happening and people start thinking we’re underweight in Gold you just see the

Effect on the mines share prices which are right down at the bottom they really are look at the effect on gold itself you know when people start going into ETFs or however they invest their portfolios into gold there is no gold there for them because the central banks

Have been basically cleaning out the refiners it won’t be just a question then of the dollar going down rather than gold going up it will be both dollar going down and gold going up I think you could see gold price by the end of this year moving very very

Sharply upwards in a recent analysis Alis dare McLoud the head of research at Gold money and a respected voice in the financial Community suggests that the federal reserve’s upcoming approach to interest rates could significantly impact the short-term trajectory of gold prices McLoud highlights the possibility

Of a dip in gold prices below $2,000 if the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious stance during its meeting the immediate Market response to the federal reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged was trimming earlier gains with gold trading within a volatile range of 2030 to $240 Central to mccloud’s argument is

The belief that Gold’s fundamentals are shaped by central banks actively reducing exposure to paper currency leading to increased gold accumulation the world gold Council supports this claim by reporting that Global central banks led by China continued to increase their gold reserves in 2023 with a collective purchase of 137 tons McLoud

Further notes the IL liquidity of the gold market and a shift in investor sentiment toward gold he posits that these factors combined with with a potential decline in the value of the US dollar could lead to a significant increase in gold prices he concludes by expressing the belief that gold prices

Could experience a sharp upward movement by the end of the year given these conditions examining historical trends when interest rates fall gold and gold stocks tend to perform well after reaching a two-e high of 25.8 gold prices have experienced a gradual climb in the past few months following a dip in October

Adding to the discourse a recent report by JP Morgan forecasts a continued surge in gold prices projecting a move toward the $2,300 level in the concluding months of the year interestingly this prediction aligns with mccloud’s short-term Outlook suggesting a minor dip before a sharp upward movement in

Gold prices by the end of the year before diving into Alistair mccloud’s interview subscribe to our Channel and give this video a big thumbs up I would not be surprised I mean if we get um say a slightly more um cautious approach from the FED on interest rates

Tonight uh what we could see perhaps is an opportunity uh to hit gold back under the $2,000 level and I would expect in that case it might bottom out around about the 1950 1960 area which is roughly where the uh 200 day moving average is so that would be if you like

A normal technical reac action though The Perennial gold bugs you know they might they will scream blue murder but they always do we’re not talking about fundamentals for gold other than um what the central banks are doing the central banks basically are trying to get out of paper currency yeah that’s why they’re

Accumulating gold you know the central banks are are trying to get out of paper currency which is why they’re buying gold and it’s paper currency that we’ve got a look at paper currency is losing its purchasing part I mean you know we’ve already spoken about the position

Of the dollar where you’ve got a debt trap um I mean just look at what’s happening to the US treasury debt the the debt mountain and Rising interest rates what’s that going to do to it you can see that I reckon by the time the

New uh ceiling is fixed which is due to be done on January the 1st 2025 we could be looking at um total debt outstanding in the region of about 40 trillion when it comes to the Outlook of for gold we are seeing it’s not so much gold at the

Moment there’s no interest in gold as I said earlier and also um if you look at the interest in Gold I mean what are the what are the um ETFs doing they’re still being liquidated the public is still selling ETFs I mean this is this is not

A gold bull market it’s a bare market for currencies but the one thing I would say is that um uh portfolios are so underweight in gold and gold related Investments we’ve got roughly $150 trillion dollar worth of portfolios around the world everything from wealth funds to mutual funds to Pension funds

Insurance funds you know the whole Kaboodle about 150 trillion the um investment in that in terms of gold and gold related Investments is less than 1% now when I tell you that in the past before um all the propaganda about how gold is a pet rock and forget it the

Dollar is the new the new money and so on and so forth uh we were looking at um having a sensible portfolio exposure to gold which is really like an insurance policy against all the other things you’ve got in your portfolio going wrong of somewhere between 5 10 maybe even 15%

If you’re really worried we have less than 1% now the point about that is that if that was to adjust 1% upwards to less than 2% that is the equivalent of portfolio purchases of over 23,000 tons of gold now the reason I say that is to just emphasize how illiquid the market

Is where does this come from when you get a swing um out of these wonderful tech stocks which have been carrying everybody’s portfolio through to the moon when you get interest rates obviously not going to come down as people expect when you get a bare Market developing in your normal sort of

Pharmaceuticals Tech stock uh Industrials and so on and so forth when that really starts happening and people start thinking we’re underweight in Gold you just see the effect on the mines share prices which are right down at the bottom they really are look at the effect on gold itself you know when

People start going into ETFs or however they invest their portfolios into gold there is no gold there for them because the central banks have been basically clean out uh the the refiners McLoud challenges the prevailing belief that interest rates are on a downward Trend contending that bank credit constraints

Might result in higher interest rates according to a recent survey a net 50.8% of banks tightened credit terms for commercial and Industrial loans to medium and large businesses in the last quarter of 2023 up from 46% in the previous survey for small firms 49.2% of banks reported stricter credit terms compared to

46.7% in the prior survey McLoud also highlights the upcoming fomc meeting suggesting that the market anticipates a slightly softer tone indicating an expectation of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve despite the FED leaving interest rates unchanged in its recent meeting Traders project 142 basis points of Fed rate Cuts this

Year Fed chair Jerome Powell while discussing the potential for rate Cuts mentioned that he doesn’t think it’s likely for the committee to reach a level of confidence by the March meeting analysts such as jagar Tred from Reliance Securities believe that the FED has kept the door open for interest rate

Cuts providing support for gold let’s get back to the interview I mean the problem with the banking system really is it starts almost from the um central banks downwards because as I’ve said on your show before the central banks are deeply into negative dealy if um they

Had to behave like the rest of us there would be uh the directors would be in jail by now but um you know these these These are government organizations so they get away with it um but we’ve had uh this morning and this is um Wednesday

The 31st we’ve had uh news that the New York Community Bank or shares have well collapsed is too strong a word I suppose at one stage they’re down about 40% hitting new lows this is not really good news this is telling us the market is effectively having a run on the bank if

You like I suppose that this is all going to come back into the headlines in the next few days um it might help gold um but I’m going to put that to one side for a moment we’ll talk about that later um I think I mean the problem with the

Banking system is that when Banks um basically are overstretched and trying to reduce the risks um that they face um then start things start going wrong and I’ll give you another example um we’ve had the Grand collapse in the the Hong Kong courts where it was ruled that um

The proposed reconstruct uh wasn’t going to work and so on um as I understand it the value of Hong Kong property has taken a bit of a dive on it now this makes one wonder I mean I’m sitting in the UK we’ve got two banks in the UK

Which are very heavily involved in Hong Kong um Hong Kong Shanghai Bank obviously which now calls itself HSBC and um uh standard charted I mean these are two uh Banks very very busy in the Far East and particularly in Hong Kong so um I would not be surprised uh

To see that um questions will be asked about their solvency and so on so that’s likely to begin to impact the banking sector in the UK I mean when you get New York Community bankor getting into trouble I mean we’re not talking major bank or anything like that I have no

Idea what the size of the balance sheet is but I don’t think really it’s it’s all that important um but I think it’s just the indication that this problem has not gone away and furthermore the interest rate Outlook I think is being driven as much as anything by the

Tightness of bank credit why is Bank credit tight well Bank credit is tight because Banks don’t want to lend money to businesses because they see um uh business conditions um at very very best stagnant and at worst I mean particularly up and down the country small and medium-sized businesses are

Struggling and they need um uh cash flow replacement and they go to the banks in order to have an overdraft and the banks are basically saying either no or if they do offer overdraft facilities it’s with goodness knows how much extra collateral and all the rest of it um you

Know like director’s houses and so on that they have to put up for collateral and on top of that um uh you know the rate is high so so this idea that interest rates are are falling forget it when you get a um a shortage of credit

The rates actually rise and I don’t see anyone actually fully understanding this in the you know in all the commentary that I that I read um on the internet and here on YouTube and the radio so um I think the IDE I mean we’ve got the

Fomc uh meeting that’s going to play out uh a little after this um is recorded um and the market hopes that um there will be a slightly softer tone the gold market continues to hold support above $2,50 as the Federal Reserve provides few hints on when it will start cutting

Interest rates as expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50% on Wednesday however analysts note that they have been more interested in any potential forward guidance from the Central Bank regarding when its easing cycle will begin how do various factors discussed in the the video contribute to the overall

Sentiment and outlook for gold prices in the coming months share your thoughts in the comment section if you like the video please subscribe to our Channel and remember to activate notifications by hitting the Bell icon your participation means a lot to us thank you