HUGE NEWS Coming Out From Central Bank! They Just Declared War on Your Gold and Silver – Adrian Day

HUGE NEWS Coming Out From Central Bank! They Just Declared War on Your Gold and Silver – Adrian Day

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, expresses confidence in the upward trajectory of gold prices, citing three main reasons. Despite a relatively slow start to the year, analysts anticipate the potential for gold to set another record in 2024, building on its previous achievement of reaching a record annual price in 2023. According to a recent London Bullion Market Association survey, member analysts foresee the gold market achieving a record annual price of 2,059 dollars per ounce in 2024. This projection reflects a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year’s record of 1,940.54 dollars per ounce.
Day argues that gold performs well during recessions, challenging the conventional wisdom that investors typically favor broad stock markets during economic downturns. The recent rally in spot gold prices, with a 0.3% increase to 2,043.80 dollars per ounce, aligns with the anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. The yellow metal has experienced a price surge for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two-week high of 2,055.89 dollars on Wednesday.
Day highlights the shift in gold ownership dynamics, noting that central banks have been the primary buyers of gold over the past 18 months while Exchange-Traded Funds have witnessed outflows. The World Gold Council’s recent report for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 sheds light on the overall gold demand trends. The report indicates that annual gold demand, excluding over-the-counter markets, amounted to 4,448 tonnes. While this figure represents a 5% decline compared to the robust demand in 2022, the inclusion of OTC markets and stock flows results in a total gold demand reaching a record 4,899 tonnes for the year 2023.
Adrian Day asserts that gold is poised for significant growth, particularly when the market perceives indications that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the verge of initiating interest rate cuts. The swift recovery observed in the Gold price during Thursday’s early New York session indicates the ongoing market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the current year.
Day predicts that inflation numbers will begin to rise again by the end of the second quarter or third quarter. This forecast aligns with the recent headline US inflation data, which exceeded expectations by 3.4% in the year to December 2023, up from 3.1% the previous month. The higher-than-expected inflation figures provide additional rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain borrowing costs at their current 22-year high. This decision will be revealed in the upcoming interest rate decision at the end of this month.

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📖 CHAPTERS:

00:00 Intro
00:51 Gold Prices
7:20 Fed Rates
11:35 Outro

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The last 18 months virtually all of the buying in Gold has come from central banks virtually all of it I mean ETFs have had steady outflows for the last 18 months of than February March even in the last month they’ve had outflows all the coin dealers I talked to sales are

Down premiums are down so all of the gold buying in the last 18 months primarily primarily virtually all of it been from Central Bank and so the danger there when you’re looking at real literally a handful of players who support a gold market they can decide

Not to buy for 2 3 4 months for whatever reason supposing China doesn’t buy any more gold for 3 or four months for whatever reason doesn’t mean they change their mind doesn’t mean they’re going to start selling anytime soon but that would have a meaningful impact on the

Price of gold other than something like that happening no I think it’s almost certain that the price of gold will go up Adrien day president of Adrien day Asset Management expresses confidence in the upward trajectory of gold prices citing three main reasons despite a relatively slow start to the year

Analysts anticipate the potential for gold to set another record in 2024 building on its previous achievement of reaching a record annual price in 2023 according to a recent London bullion Market Association survey member analysts foresee the gold market achieving a record annual price of $259 per ounce in 2024 this projection

Reflects a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year’s record of $1,945 for per ounce day argues that gold performs well during recessions challenging the conventional wisdom that investors typically favor broad stock markets during economic downturns the recent rally in spot gold prices with a 0.3% increase to $243.00 per ounce aligns with the

Anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates the yellow metal has experienced a price surge for the fourth consecutive day reaching a twoe high of $25.89 on Wednesday day highlights the shift in Gold ownership Dynamics noting That central banks have been the primary buyers of gold over the past 18 months

While exchange traded funds have witnessed outflows the world gold council’s recent report for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 sheds light on the overall gold demand Trends the report indicates that annual gold demand excluding over the- counter markets amounted to 4,448 tons while this figure represents

A 5% decline compared to the robust demand in 2022 the inclusion of OTC markets and stock flows results in a total gold demand reaching a record 4,899 tons for the year 2023 join us as we delve into insights shared by Adrien day to stay updated with our latest

Uploads subscribe to our Channel and activate notifications thank you the last 18 months where virtually virtually all of the buying in Gold has come from central banks virtually all of it I mean ETFs have had steady outflows for the last 18 months other than February March even in the last month they’ve had

Outflows coins uh all the coin dealers I talked to sales are down premiums are down so all of the gold buying in the last 18 months primarily primarily virtually all of it been from central banks and so the danger there when you’re looking at real literally a handful of players who’ve supported the

Gold market they can decide not to buy for 2 3 4 months for whatever reason supposing China doesn’t buy any more gold for three or four months for whatever reason doesn’t mean they change their mind doesn’t mean they’re going to start selling anytime soon but that would have a meaningful impact on the

Price of gold so other than something like that happening no I think it’s almost certain that the price of gold will go up first of all if for three reasons first of all I think three I don’t know first of all if you look back at every time the Fett has started

Cutting rates after Rising after rate hiking cycle the next time they start to cut rates gold has moved up dramatically and that’s logical the second thing who’s counting right who’s counting well that’s that’s the first thing the second thing is that if we are entering a recession as I think we are gold

Actually tends to do well in recessions people think recession that’s right don’t want to be in Gold stocks it’s a logical kind of thing oh fed’s cutting interest rates I want to be in a broad stock market but in fact both of those things historically speaking are facies

The stock broad stock market starts to fall when the FED starts to cut rates and it’s not because the stock market Falls because they’re cutting rates is because the stock market is because in an environment where the FED is cutting rates typically you’re in a recession if we’re in a stack inflationary period

Which I believe we’re entering with inflation up and uh a recession that means companies are going to get hit by higher costs and by lower sales and so their profits are going to get squeezed that’s that’s on the broad Market as for gold again it’s not so much of the

Recession is good for gold it’s just that in a recession the FED starts to cut rates cutting rates is good for gold so if you look back at the last uh all of the recessions so uh 10 10 recessions end of the 19 60s in all but one of

Those recessions gold went up and the one where it went down was in 2000 the com bust where it dropped by half a percent half a percent that was when the European Banks were dumping their gold if you remember so so in pretty much every every recession out there gold has

Gone up in a majority of recessions gold stocks have gone up which is sort of surprising and in the in the in the three recessions where gold stocks went down they went down by 2% 4% and 5% % the ones where they went up they went up by 30% 80%

197% Etc so a majority of recessions gold stocks have gone up and gone up by a meaningful amount and here’s the critical key in every single one of those recessions gold stocks outperform the S&P I definitely think it’s true but if you’re in an environment where the

Gold price is going down you have a very very significant headwind and it’s very difficult for any stock to make any Gold stock to make money and OB it is true if the gold price is going up a lot Rising boat Rising tide raises All Ships and

All that stuff so you’ve got a Tailwind I mean broadly speaking if the gold price is not going up you really don’t want to be in Gold stocks broadly speaking but you only have to look at a stock like Franken Nevada which did very well from you know from

2011 to 2018 when the gold price fell sharply and other gold stocks were down 80% still did well still gave you a return I I can’t quot it off the top of my head cuz sorry I wasn’t looking but it still did well so broadly speaking I

Would say I would say the your your statement is true and it’s certainly true of the producers more than the exploration companies because of course an Explorer can have a great discovery and that will build value whether the price of gold is going up or down Adrien

Day asserts that gold is poised for significant growth particularly when the market perceives indications that the Federal Reserve fed is on the verge of initiating interest rate cuts the Swift recovery observed in the gold price during Thursday’s early New York session indicates the ongoing Market sentiment with investors closely monitoring the

Possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the current year day predicts that inflation numbers will begin to rise again by the end of the second quarter or third quarter this forecast aligns with the recent headline US inflation data which exceeded expectations by 3.4% in the year to

December 2023 up from 3.1% the previous month the higher than expected inflation figures provide additional rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain borrowing costs at their current 22-year high this decision will be revealed in the upcoming interest rate decision at the end of this month let’s get back to

The interview I’ve said for two years now but gold will really take off when the FED but when the market believes that the FED will start cutting rates before they have crushed inflation and we all right at that point right now it’s quite clear that the next move from

The FED will be to lower rates personally I’m not quite as optimistic as some people are about the timing you know the when they will do it and how rapidly they’ll do it but there’s no question that the next move will be a cutting rate and once they had starts

Cutting rates there’ll be a whole series of them and yet at the same time they have not crushed inflation now we look at the CPI or the PC numbers and you see a you know they’ve come down dramatically but in the last few months they’ve sort of stabilized and started

In the US moving up a little bit depending on what you’re looking at in Canada they’re kind of flat for a few months my point is they have not yet killed inflation and if you look at the fed’s own preferred measure of inflation which is core pce yeah we’re still 60%

Above their own Target which is an aage Target to begin with but we’re 60 % above their target my sense is that we’ll start to see inflation numbers pick up again end of the second quarter third quarter will start to even pick up again partly from the base effect

Because it’s partly the base effect that made the numbers so low in October November December CU we were comparing with a year ago when they were higher That Base effect is going to flip a little bit as we get into June July well May June July August so that’s one thing

And the other thing of course is oil oil is particularly low right now um or is low right now I should say so the potential for oil to move up over the next 6 months I think is real and of course if the price of oil moves up that

Affects the price of every good in the store so I’m not an oil analyst and I’m not you know I’m not putting money on a higher gold oil price I think the risk in inflation is on the upside not on the downside I think a recession is inevitable all but inevitable nothing is

Inevitable except death and taxes but um I think it’s all but inevitable and all of the indicators you look at whether it’s the leading economic indicator whether it’s manufacturing you know all of the indicators are pointing down the increase in debt I think is a very

Significant one you look at the uh debt levels on balance b u credit card balances you look at credit card defaults because of course the balance goes up before they default uh both of those have shot up to 10 and 20 year highs depending on which one we’re

Looking at and it’s worse among credit cards like Capital One discover it’s worse there than it is say at um uh Chase but certainly worse than American Express so discover and and and uh Capital One our credit cards are typically you know their Market is more lower income people yeah um and those

Are the people that are really hurting so when you have over 5% of your credit card defaulting that is astonishing number when you think about it the yellow metal has backed down from its session highs on reports an Israel Hamas ceasefire may be close at hand however there has been

No confirmation of such Safe Haven buying and bullish daily outside Market forces including a weaker US dollar Index and a dip in US Treasury yields support gold how might geopolitical tensions particularly the situation in the Red Sea continue to influence gold prices in the coming weeks share your

Thoughts in the comment section if the video resonates with you join our community by subscribing to our Channel and enabling notifications with the Bell icon thank you for being a part of our community